I was hesitant to share this chart I did yesterday on Harmon's analysis because I didn't know if I could, but I will post this comparison since his other stuff is out there.
Any analysis method is a work in progress. Still, I find it encouraging when I read this statement from Harmon, " Among the 270-plus players charted in Reception Perception history, only one of the wide receivers has cleared the 90th percentile in success rate vs. man coverage and never had a 1,000-yard season in the NFL. That’s Curtis Samuel, who
did record 1,000 total yards for the Panthers in 2020. Pretty close, right? At least we know he’s good."
So for me, after seeing this comparison and taking in other evaluations of Smith, he's my guy. I am not saying we shouldn't consider his weight; however, I think his success rate among man, zone, and the press is enough to convince me that his skill set is so varied and special that we can find a way to use him successfully.
View attachment 74450
Note: In his analysis, Harmon defines success as: "A success is charted when a receiver “gets open” against the coverage. Creating separation, enough for the quarterback to have a reasonable target, is marked as a success. The only plays that are automatically given as success to the receiver are instances where a receiver is obviously held or interfered with (called or not). These plays make a big difference to an offense, and signify a receiver winning yards for his team by forcing the defensive back to hold him." Since the standard is the same for every WR, it is a fair analysis, in my opinion.