Slimm's 2013 Position Rankings | Page 7 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Slimm's 2013 Position Rankings

BlueFin said:
I think Robert Woods is going to be one those guys that just gets it done and makes plays and will have a very successfull career, not an exciting workout guy, but one that makes it happen in the games.
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Marques Colston 2.0
 
New kid on the draft block, and see you have done this before. I am impressed with "Slimm's Pickings."

I believe that, due to the new CBA, 2 or 3 teams will take a shot at QB in the top ten. It makes sense to pay a pick less than a bad backup, with many teams in need. Curious as to your thoughts?
 
Slimm, how do you come about ranking Hopkins higher than, say, Stacy. I've read some of your posts on each, and I haven't read very many positive statements in regard to Hopkins, but you're very high (or you seem very high on Stacy). I understand that in relation to where most people rank them, you're much lower on Hopkins and much higher on Stacy, and this isn't meant as an accusing question at all. I'm really curious where the rubber meets the road for you when ranking these kinds of prospects. This is an area where I struggle when creating a big board. I come across a guy I really like, and maybe I connect too much with an aspect of his game and miss the forest for the trees, so to speak. I know these are all your own opinions (you're not averaging your grade with Mayock's or something like that), so how does that work for you?
 
j-off-her-doll said:
Slimm, how do you come about ranking Hopkins higher than, say, Stacy. I've read some of your posts on each, and I haven't read very many positive statements in regard to Hopkins, but you're very high (or you seem very high on Stacy). I understand that in relation to where most people rank them, you're much lower on Hopkins and much higher on Stacy, and this isn't meant as an accusing question at all. I'm really curious where the rubber meets the road for you when ranking these kinds of prospects. This is an area where I struggle when creating a big board. I come across a guy I really like, and maybe I connect too much with an aspect of his game and miss the forest for the trees, so to speak. I know these are all your own opinions (you're not averaging your grade with Mayock's or something like that), so how does that work for you?
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This is a case where it's as simple as the value of the position, and strength of the class. Also, keep in mind that I don't draft vertically. For example, I won't necessarily draft the player that's #32 over the player that's #33 in every instance. Talent wise, you can obviously see that I view Hopkins and Stacy extremely close together. I believe Hopkins to be as quality of a receiver as Stacy is a running back, and vice versa.

However, vertical grade is also determined by the competition that each prospect is competing against at their respective positions. The WR class that Hopkins is competing with is deeper and stronger than the RB class that Stacy is competing against. Stacy is my #3 RB, whereas Hopkins is my #9 WR. They happen to fall into the same range on my vertical big board because the strength of the WR class is stronger than the RB class.

I wouldn't pass up my #3 rated player at any position for my #9 rated player at another position if the need there is equal for both. You've often heard me talk about how I wouldn't pass up the #1 safety on my board (Eric Reid) at the top of the 2nd round for the #4 or #5 cornerbacks on my board at the top of the 2nd round, even though they all fall grade wise into a range at the top of the 2nd round. This is where the term "value" has a purpose, and why teams don't draft vertically.

Hopkins ranks one spot higher on my big board because I tend to give underclassman the advantage when stacking equal talents vertically. Again, that doesn't mean I'd actually draft that way. This is why I think it's important to have position rankings to refer back to in addition to your big board. It's how you guage value, and make the best decision in terms of selecting one over the other.

I think it's a good idea to draft vertically in the top 10 picks or so because that's where the elite talent is, and elite talent always takes precedence over need. But once you get beyond those 7 or 8 elite talents, I think it's a good idea to start considering value at that point. If I'm choosing between the #1 TE, #6 WR, and #3 CB on my board, I'm going with the #1 TE because that's where I'm getting the best value.
 
TedSlimmJr said:
This is a case where it's as simple as the value of the position, and strength of the class. Also, keep in mind that I don't draft vertically. For example, I won't necessarily draft the player that's #32 over the player that's #33 in every instance. Talent wise, you can obviously see that I view Hopkins and Stacy extremely close together. I believe Hopkins to be as quality of a receiver as Stacy is a running back, and vice versa.

However, vertical grade is also determined by the competition that each prospect is competing against at their respective positions. The WR class that Hopkins is competing with is deeper and stronger than the RB class that Stacy is competing against. Stacy is my #3 RB, whereas Hopkins is my #9 WR. They happen to fall into the same range on my vertical big board because the strength of the WR class is stronger than the RB class.

I wouldn't pass up my #3 rated player at any position for my #9 rated player at another position if the need there is equal for both. You've often heard me talk about how I wouldn't pass up the #1 safety on my board (Eric Reid) at the top of the 2nd round for the #4 or #5 cornerbacks on my board at the top of the 2nd round, even though they all fall grade wise into a range at the top of the 2nd round. This is where the term "value" has a purpose, and why teams don't draft vertically.

Hopkins ranks one spot higher on my big board because I tend to give underclassman the advantage when stacking equal talents vertically. Again, that doesn't mean I'd actually draft that way. This is why I think it's important to have position rankings to refer back to in addition to your big board. It's how you guage value, and make the best decision in terms of selecting one over the other.

I think it's a good idea to draft vertically in the top 10 picks or so because that's where the elite talent is, and elite talent always takes precedence over need. But once you get beyond those 7 or 8 elite talents, I think it's a good idea to start considering value at that point. If I'm choosing between the #1 TE, #6 WR, and #3 CB on my board, I'm going with the #1 TE because that's where I'm getting the best value.
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I think your cut-off at around the 10th pick (for vertical/horizontal drafting) makes a ton of sense. Based on some of the reaches you get in the Top 10, though, I get the sense that there are at least a few teams who - whether or not they'd admit it - are drafting horizontal from the get. Also, I'm guessing that an elite talent will always be a trump. Random draft history question: what's the furthest you remember an elite prospect falling? I'd exclude QB from the question - just because there's some extra subjectivity there. And speaking of Reid, that 1Carradine/2aReid mock is still my favorite to date.

I know there isn't an exact science to this thing, so there isn't a specific cut off, but generally speaking, how do you work your horizontal/vertical board? Obviously, there are other factors coming into play like positional value and team need, but say you're Miami sitting there at 54, and you're looking at Jonathan Bostic (your #2 ILB - 2nd RD value) and Alex Okafor (your #7 DE - 1st RD value). I know pass rusher is more valuable than ILB, but if you could assume their positions are of equal value and of equal need for this example, does your horizontal board win out in this example, or do you go with a guy you have rated as a 1st RD talent?
 
j-off-her-doll said:
I think your cut-off at around the 10th pick (for vertical/horizontal drafting) makes a ton of sense. Based on some of the reaches you get in the Top 10, though, I get the sense that there are at least a few teams who - whether or not they'd admit it - are drafting horizontal from the get. Also, I'm guessing that an elite talent will always be a trump. Random draft history question: what's the furthest you remember an elite prospect falling? I'd exclude QB from the question - just because there's some extra subjectivity there. And speaking of Reid, that 1Carradine/2aReid mock is still my favorite to date.

I know there isn't an exact science to this thing, so there isn't a specific cut off, but generally speaking, how do you work your horizontal/vertical board? Obviously, there are other factors coming into play like positional value and team need, but say you're Miami sitting there at 54, and you're looking at Jonathan Bostic (your #2 ILB - 2nd RD value) and Alex Okafor (your #7 DE - 1st RD value). I know pass rusher is more valuable than ILB, but if you could assume their positions are of equal value and of equal need for this example, does your horizontal board win out in this example, or do you go with a guy you have rated as a 1st RD talent?
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Just off the top of my head I'd say that Janoris Jenkins at the top of the 2nd round was the most recent example of an elite talent slipping. Although we all know why. He was easily a top 10 talent (clean).

The Okafor scenario is pretty cut and dry. I have a higher grade on Okafor as opposed to Bostic. Secondly, we're factoring impact here. A pass rusher affects the game more than an inside linebacker is able to.

All of this is actually much more complicated when it's being explain in detail in my opinion, because my mind automatically calculates all of these factors instantly without conscious effort. Particularly the intangible factors of impact, positional value, etc.
 
Slim I saw you had the WR Zach Rogers listed as a late pick, if that someone you would take a punt on?
 
uk_dolfan said:
Slim I saw you had the WR Zach Rogers listed as a late pick, if that someone you would take a punt on?
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I think he's far better than a punt. He's an extremely underrated player. I believe he has a chance to go higher than where I have him graded here if the NFL has been paying any attention whatsoever to Tennessee's offense. Reminds me of Brandon Stokley as a prospect. Needs to add 6-8 pounds of muscle to his frame and he should be fine. Route running and football IQ are big assets here. Underrated athletic ability.
 
TedSlimmJr said:
I think he's far better than a punt. He's an extremely underrated player. I believe he has a chance to go higher than where I have him graded here if the NFL has been paying any attention whatsoever to Tennessee's offense. Reminds me of Brandon Stokley as a prospect. Needs to add 6-8 pounds of muscle to his frame and he should be fine. Route running and football IQ are big assets here. Underrated athletic ability.
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Yup, I have read some good things about him online recently and just spotted you had him down as a seventh rounder, sounds like a great late draft option with plenty of upside. Certainly seems like a better option than the likes of Binns or Fuller.
 
TedSlimmJr said:
Just off the top of my head I'd say that Janoris Jenkins at the top of the 2nd round was the most recent example of an elite talent slipping. Although we all know why. He was easily a top 10 talent (clean).

The Okafor scenario is pretty cut and dry. I have a higher grade on Okafor as opposed to Bostic. Secondly, we're factoring impact here. A pass rusher affects the game more than an inside linebacker is able to.

All of this is actually much more complicated when it's being explain in detail in my opinion, because my mind automatically calculates all of these factors instantly without conscious effort. Particularly the intangible factors of impact, positional value, etc.
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Last year, my buddies and I had pretty heated arguments as to who was the better player between Jenkins and Gilmore. Felt like I was on crazy pills. I get what you're saying about the explanation making it seem more complicated than it is. Thanks, Slimm.
 
Slimm's rankings of our draft

Here's a gem of a thread that is apropos right now....I found myself doing this anyway, so thought I'd share it with the board.

I've simply taken each of our picks through the first 5 rounds and pulled out where they stood in Slimm's rankings. Makes it easy to compare and get a quick feel for 'how we did' according to Slimm.

I've listed each pick with 3 lines.
First line: Round/position in the round ( overall slot in draft ) Player - Position
Second line: Slimm's positional ranking - player - valued round
Third line: slimm's ranking on his big board ( you can compare this directly with the 'overall slot in draft number )

Granted this is from 2/28 but it's the best overall big board I could find...

1.3 ( 3) Dion Jordan - DE
6. Dion Jordan - 1st round
19. Dion Jordan / DE / Oregon

2.22 (54) Jamar Taylor - CB
4. Jamar Taylor - 2nd round
40. Jamar Taylor / CB / Boise St.

3.15 (77) Dallas Thomas - OT
16. Dallas Thomas - 4th round (guard)
173. Dallas Thomas / OG / Tennessee

3.31 (93) Will Davis - CB
12. Will Davis - 3rd round
87. Will Davis / CB / Utah St.

4.7 (104) Jelani Jenkins - LB
12. Jelani Jenkins - 5th round
208. Jelani Jenkins / LB / Florida

4.9 (106) Dion Sims - TE
6. Dion Sims* - 3rd round
72. Dion Sims* / TE / Michigan St.

5.31 (164) Mike Gillislee - RB
16. Mike Gillislee - 4th round
162. Mike Gillisliee / RB / Florida


Made me feel better about some of the guys I'd never heard of! Also, as a body of work, we ended up with:
- one top 6 player
- 1 2nd rounder
- 2 3rd rounders
- 2 4th rounders
- 1 5th

Which is maybe about average based on the ammo we started out with ( considering we gave up 1 2nd rounder to get the top 6 player ).
 
isaacjunk said:
Here's a gem of a thread that is apropos right now....I found myself doing this anyway, so thought I'd share it with the board.

I've simply taken each of our picks through the first 5 rounds and pulled out where they stood in Slimm's rankings. Makes it easy to compare and get a quick feel for 'how we did' according to Slimm.

I've listed each pick with 3 lines.
First line: Round/position in the round ( overall slot in draft ) Player - Position
Second line: Slimm's positional ranking - player - valued round
Third line: slimm's ranking on his big board ( you can compare this directly with the 'overall slot in draft number )

Granted this is from 2/28 but it's the best overall big board I could find...

1.3 ( 3) Dion Jordan - DE
6. Dion Jordan - 1st round
19. Dion Jordan / DE / Oregon

2.22 (54) Jamar Taylor - CB
4. Jamar Taylor - 2nd round
40. Jamar Taylor / CB / Boise St.

3.15 (77) Dallas Thomas - OT
16. Dallas Thomas - 4th round (guard)
173. Dallas Thomas / OG / Tennessee

3.31 (93) Will Davis - CB
12. Will Davis - 3rd round
87. Will Davis / CB / Utah St.

4.7 (104) Jelani Jenkins - LB
12. Jelani Jenkins - 5th round
208. Jelani Jenkins / LB / Florida

4.9 (106) Dion Sims - TE
6. Dion Sims* - 3rd round
72. Dion Sims* / TE / Michigan St.

5.31 (164) Mike Gillislee - RB
16. Mike Gillislee - 4th round
162. Mike Gillisliee / RB / Florida


Made me feel better about some of the guys I'd never heard of! Also, as a body of work, we ended up with:
- one top 6 player
- 1 2nd rounder
- 2 3rd rounders
- 2 4th rounders
- 1 5th

Which is maybe about average based on the ammo we started out with ( considering we gave up 1 2nd rounder to get the top 6 player ).
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Ted Slimm Jr would've made this draft his bitch. abosolutely spot on.
 
ckparrothead said:
Tank Carradine is a fantastic player. That's why like 6 weeks ago I was saying he needs to be on Miami's short list for the 12th overall pick.

Would I rank him above Werner? No. Would I rank him above every other defensive end prospect in the Draft? Yes.
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So if I'm reading this right neither you nor Slimm would have taken Jordan at #3, it will be interesting to see how it plays out,
 
seeing Davis rated in 3rd round is something reassuring: it wasn't a totally absurd pick....

viceversa, not so good reading his rating for Jankins and Thomas, both about 100 pick earlier..


also, thinking about Carradine in SF is kinda of depressing: what a passrush/defensive line they are going to have!


is there a possibility that Ted Slimm Jr will rate every team's draft, like he did last year? it would be awesome


anyway, thanks for this wonderful thread
 
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