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Slimm's 2019 Quarterbacks (underclassman)

ckparrothead said:
How many guys do we know of that have chosen baseball over football?

I guess Chad Hutchinson and Drew Henson, but weren't they forced to make that decision in college before he could get an Advisory grade and all that? That's where Billy Beane could have, and should have, intercepted Kyler Murray. I think he doomed himself when he gave Murray permission to go back to Oklahoma and take up his opportunity to finally start.
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Nailed it.
He doomed himself when he allowed him to play this season. Probably didn’t think NFL was a “real” option given size thus no downside other than injury. However, given recent successes of Baker and Wilson, rule changes and the kids athleticism, combined with QB thirsty NFL teams, it’s done.
I mean RT17 is legitimately a top 20 QB, this kid is going top 10.
And furthermore, Haskins is going TOP 5, said it months ago and will ride with it.
 
ckparrothead said:
How many guys do we know of that have chosen baseball over football?

I guess Chad Hutchinson and Drew Henson, but weren't they forced to make that decision in college before he could get an Advisory grade and all that? That's where Billy Beane could have, and should have, intercepted Kyler Murray. I think he doomed himself when he gave Murray permission to go back to Oklahoma and take up his opportunity to finally start.
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Todd Helton too - he started at quarterback for a few games at Tennessee Peyton's freshman year before he took over. Although he was always more of a baseball prospect than a true pro football prospect. Had a heck of a MLB career.
 
His agent is literally paid to keep his relations with baseball at the highest possible level until time Murray actually burns that bridge. His agent also is trying to low key strong arm Kyler because he is his BASEBALL agent not his FOOTBALL agent.
 
Brilliant piece by Kalyn Kahler of SI.com

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/12/13/kyler-murray-nfl-draft-2019-first-round-drew-henson-baseball

Here's the most relevant piece of the puzzle:

Projections on Murray are all over the board. Some believe the CAC could give him a “return to school grade” (Murray has said he will not play another season at Oklahoma) while others feel he’s a Day 2 pick with a chance to go in the first round thanks to raw talent and the lack of top-flight QBs in the 2019 draft class. It only takes one team to push him into the first night, and at least one scout thinks that scenario will play out: “With his arm and talent, he’s a first round pick.”

Several scouts who visited Oklahoma this season came away with the impression that Murray was going to enter the NFL draft, and were surprised by Boras’s comments that Murray would fulfill his contract with the A’s. “They [Oklahoma football staff] were pretty sure that he was going to play football, that he was going to finish this year out and that he was going to be ready for the draft,” says one scout who visited Norman late this season. “I’m sure every scout that went through there wrote him up, because that's what they were telling you by the end of the season.”
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Who do you believe?

Scott Boras has EVERY financial incentive to lie about this and simultaneously try and push Kyler Murray into choosing baseball. He gets paid off Murray's $4.66 million baseball contract, and he really does believe that in 5 to 7 years, he can get Murray a big $15-20 million per year type of payday. So he's going to push and he's going to pretend there's no question that Murray will play baseball.

But Murray HIMSELF is dissembling.

“Well, I mean, I’ve already kinda—as of right now, I’m going to play baseball,” he answered. “That’s about it.”
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"I think that's something me and my family will talk about at the end of the season and weigh out the options of what the NFL thinks of me," Murray told Tebow, the former Florida quarterback who plays in the New York Mets organization.
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Notice that Kyler Murray WAS on the list of names submitted by the Oklahoma Sooners for grading by the College Advisory Committee. The school submits the list but it's the PLAYER who asks the school to do so, and the school decides whether to follow through or not (since they're limited to five names).

I've been crunching the numbers here and looking into this and from a purely FINANCIAL standpoint, and this very much is in my realm of expertise, there's no contest. If you get a 1st round grade from the CAC then you choose NFL football.

The worst case scenario for football if he got the 1st round grade would be to sign a 4 year rookie contract worth between $18 million (#10 overall pick) and $35 million (#1 overall pick). If he's a MEGA BUST then he still collects every cent of that money, and can go back and try and give baseball a go at 24 years old.

The worst case scenario for baseball is pretty bad, though. And I'm told, it happens all the time. The worst case scenario for baseball is he spends a bunch of time in the minors, only gets the $4.66 million he signed for, can't even try for a big contract until 2023-2024 because of the way baseball eligibility works, and if he's not Mike Trout or Andrew McCutchen by then, he's screwed. At that point he tries to come back over the NFL and he'll be 26 years old, not having played football in five years, and NFL football tends to be very unforgiving of layoffs.

So your worst case to worst case comparison gives him 4x to 7x more money in the NFL while better preserving his ability to switch back to the other sport.

But that's the worst case, right? What would success look like?

I look at two contracts, both of which entail him being successful, but NOT ELITE in football. There's Ryan Tannehill's 4 years, $77 million of "new" money starting 2017, a contract extension which he signed originally in 2015. Then there's the 3 year, $84 million contract signed by Kirk Cousins when he hit unrestricted free agency.

In the NFL you've got an established capflation rate of about 6%. So everything has to be rolled forward by that amount. Attached to the end of his rookie deal there would be a 5th year option in 2023, which (rolled forward at 6% CAGR) would pay him about $26 million. So 2024 is the year that the "new" money would start flowing into his bank account. If you use the Tannehill deal as your base, he'd be getting like $29 million per year. If you use the Cousins deal as your base, he'd be getting like $40 million per year.

So you add it all up and if he executes a SECOND CONTRACT in the NFL, as a NON-ELITE quarterback, let's say for 4 years, then he'll have had a career earnings between $160 million and $220 million, depending on draft position and how successfully he negotiates that second deal. He'd come out of that deal 30 years old, looking for a third contract, with between $160 and $220 million already booked.

When I started looking into baseball, what I found is that even in the successful, non-elite case, he would get MUCH less than that. I've heard him compared favorably to Andrew McCutchen, who just signed a 3 year, $50 million deal. Baseball's accepted inflation rate is more or less 5%. Let's say that in January 2024 he is able to snag that McCutchen deal, but on a 4 year contract. That would put him 30 years old, having earned less than $100 million in his career.

Essentially, the ONLY scenarios where he comes out a winner in baseball, involve him being a wildly better baseball player than he is a football player, or involve him ending up with an elite level baseball contract. But even that is arguable.

And none of that even considers the marketing possibilities. He gets drafted in the top 10 of the NFL and he immediately becomes one of the most popular sports stars in that city. In baseball, he'd be riding buses in the minor leagues for a few years.

Even the injury stuff, I don't buy it anymore. The QB position is so protected in the NFL nowadays. He could blow out his arm or joints in baseball just as easily as football, and I don't know that CTE would be as big a concern for a quarterback as it would be, for example, for a linebacker.

I think this decision is already made. So do the NFL scouts. That's the feedback they've been getting from Oklahoma for months. And you can see why. You can't make a financial case for baseball. You can try, but the numbers aren't there. You can maybe make an injury/wellness case for it, and who knows how receptive he'd be to that argument.

In the end, which one does he love? He just won the HEISMAN TROPHY. And when he was asked whether he would rather win the Heisman or a World Series?

"The Heisman,"

His answer makes it clear.
 
ckparrothead said:
Brilliant piece by Kalyn Kahler of SI.com

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/12/13/kyler-murray-nfl-draft-2019-first-round-drew-henson-baseball

Here's the most relevant piece of the puzzle:



Who do you believe?

Scott Boras has EVERY financial incentive to lie about this and simultaneously try and push Kyler Murray into choosing baseball. He gets paid off Murray's $4.66 million baseball contract, and he really does believe that in 5 to 7 years, he can get Murray a big $15-20 million per year type of payday. So he's going to push and he's going to pretend there's no question that Murray will play baseball.

But Murray HIMSELF is dissembling.





Notice that Kyler Murray WAS on the list of names submitted by the Oklahoma Sooners for grading by the College Advisory Committee. The school submits the list but it's the PLAYER who asks the school to do so, and the school decides whether to follow through or not (since they're limited to five names).

I've been crunching the numbers here and looking into this and from a purely FINANCIAL standpoint, and this very much is in my realm of expertise, there's no contest. If you get a 1st round grade from the CAC then you choose NFL football.

The worst case scenario for football if he got the 1st round grade would be to sign a 4 year rookie contract worth between $18 million (#10 overall pick) and $35 million (#1 overall pick). If he's a MEGA BUST then he still collects every cent of that money, and can go back and try and give baseball a go at 24 years old.

The worst case scenario for baseball is pretty bad, though. And I'm told, it happens all the time. The worst case scenario for baseball is he spends a bunch of time in the minors, only gets the $4.66 million he signed for, can't even try for a big contract until 2023-2024 because of the way baseball eligibility works, and if he's not Mike Trout or Andrew McCutchen by then, he's screwed. At that point he tries to come back over the NFL and he'll be 26 years old, not having played football in five years, and NFL football tends to be very unforgiving of layoffs.

So your worst case to worst case comparison gives him 4x to 7x more money in the NFL while better preserving his ability to switch back to the other sport.

But that's the worst case, right? What would success look like?

I look at two contracts, both of which entail him being successful, but NOT ELITE in football. There's Ryan Tannehill's 4 years, $77 million of "new" money starting 2017, a contract extension which he signed originally in 2015. Then there's the 3 year, $84 million contract signed by Kirk Cousins when he hit unrestricted free agency.

In the NFL you've got an established capflation rate of about 6%. So everything has to be rolled forward by that amount. Attached to the end of his rookie deal there would be a 5th year option in 2023, which (rolled forward at 6% CAGR) would pay him about $26 million. So 2024 is the year that the "new" money would start flowing into his bank account. If you use the Tannehill deal as your base, he'd be getting like $29 million per year. If you use the Cousins deal as your base, he'd be getting like $40 million per year.

So you add it all up and if he executes a SECOND CONTRACT in the NFL, as a NON-ELITE quarterback, let's say for 4 years, then he'll have had a career earnings between $160 million and $220 million, depending on draft position and how successfully he negotiates that second deal. He'd come out of that deal 30 years old, looking for a third contract, with between $160 and $220 million already booked.

When I started looking into baseball, what I found is that even in the successful, non-elite case, he would get MUCH less than that. I've heard him compared favorably to Andrew McCutchen, who just signed a 3 year, $50 million deal. Baseball's accepted inflation rate is more or less 5%. Let's say that in January 2024 he is able to snag that McCutchen deal, but on a 4 year contract. That would put him 30 years old, having earned less than $100 million in his career.

Essentially, the ONLY scenarios where he comes out a winner in baseball, involve him being a wildly better baseball player than he is a football player, or involve him ending up with an elite level baseball contract. But even that is arguable.

And none of that even considers the marketing possibilities. He gets drafted in the top 10 of the NFL and he immediately becomes one of the most popular sports stars in that city. In baseball, he'd be riding buses in the minor leagues for a few years.

Even the injury stuff, I don't buy it anymore. The QB position is so protected in the NFL nowadays. He could blow out his arm or joints in baseball just as easily as football, and I don't know that CTE would be as big a concern for a quarterback as it would be, for example, for a linebacker.

I think this decision is already made. So do the NFL scouts. That's the feedback they've been getting from Oklahoma for months. And you can see why. You can't make a financial case for baseball. You can try, but the numbers aren't there. You can maybe make an injury/wellness case for it, and who knows how receptive he'd be to that argument.

In the end, which one does he love? He just won the HEISMAN TROPHY. And when he was asked whether he would rather win the Heisman or a World Series?

"The Heisman,"

His answer makes it clear.
Click to expand...


Yeah the more I think about it, it seems highly likely he plays football. I hope these individuals that say "he should go back to school" work for teams picking ahead of the Dolphins.
 
I hope Murray plays football and I would not be opposed to Miami drafting him but dang he looked like a freakin dwarf standing next to Haskins at the Heismen ceremony.
 
ckparrothead said:
Brilliant piece by Kalyn Kahler of SI.com

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/12/13/kyler-murray-nfl-draft-2019-first-round-drew-henson-baseball

Here's the most relevant piece of the puzzle:



Who do you believe?

Scott Boras has EVERY financial incentive to lie about this and simultaneously try and push Kyler Murray into choosing baseball. He gets paid off Murray's $4.66 million baseball contract, and he really does believe that in 5 to 7 years, he can get Murray a big $15-20 million per year type of payday. So he's going to push and he's going to pretend there's no question that Murray will play baseball.

But Murray HIMSELF is dissembling.





Notice that Kyler Murray WAS on the list of names submitted by the Oklahoma Sooners for grading by the College Advisory Committee. The school submits the list but it's the PLAYER who asks the school to do so, and the school decides whether to follow through or not (since they're limited to five names).

I've been crunching the numbers here and looking into this and from a purely FINANCIAL standpoint, and this very much is in my realm of expertise, there's no contest. If you get a 1st round grade from the CAC then you choose NFL football.

The worst case scenario for football if he got the 1st round grade would be to sign a 4 year rookie contract worth between $18 million (#10 overall pick) and $35 million (#1 overall pick). If he's a MEGA BUST then he still collects every cent of that money, and can go back and try and give baseball a go at 24 years old.

The worst case scenario for baseball is pretty bad, though. And I'm told, it happens all the time. The worst case scenario for baseball is he spends a bunch of time in the minors, only gets the $4.66 million he signed for, can't even try for a big contract until 2023-2024 because of the way baseball eligibility works, and if he's not Mike Trout or Andrew McCutchen by then, he's screwed. At that point he tries to come back over the NFL and he'll be 26 years old, not having played football in five years, and NFL football tends to be very unforgiving of layoffs.

So your worst case to worst case comparison gives him 4x to 7x more money in the NFL while better preserving his ability to switch back to the other sport.

But that's the worst case, right? What would success look like?

I look at two contracts, both of which entail him being successful, but NOT ELITE in football. There's Ryan Tannehill's 4 years, $77 million of "new" money starting 2017, a contract extension which he signed originally in 2015. Then there's the 3 year, $84 million contract signed by Kirk Cousins when he hit unrestricted free agency.

In the NFL you've got an established capflation rate of about 6%. So everything has to be rolled forward by that amount. Attached to the end of his rookie deal there would be a 5th year option in 2023, which (rolled forward at 6% CAGR) would pay him about $26 million. So 2024 is the year that the "new" money would start flowing into his bank account. If you use the Tannehill deal as your base, he'd be getting like $29 million per year. If you use the Cousins deal as your base, he'd be getting like $40 million per year.

So you add it all up and if he executes a SECOND CONTRACT in the NFL, as a NON-ELITE quarterback, let's say for 4 years, then he'll have had a career earnings between $160 million and $220 million, depending on draft position and how successfully he negotiates that second deal. He'd come out of that deal 30 years old, looking for a third contract, with between $160 and $220 million already booked.

When I started looking into baseball, what I found is that even in the successful, non-elite case, he would get MUCH less than that. I've heard him compared favorably to Andrew McCutchen, who just signed a 3 year, $50 million deal. Baseball's accepted inflation rate is more or less 5%. Let's say that in January 2024 he is able to snag that McCutchen deal, but on a 4 year contract. That would put him 30 years old, having earned less than $100 million in his career.

Essentially, the ONLY scenarios where he comes out a winner in baseball, involve him being a wildly better baseball player than he is a football player, or involve him ending up with an elite level baseball contract. But even that is arguable.

And none of that even considers the marketing possibilities. He gets drafted in the top 10 of the NFL and he immediately becomes one of the most popular sports stars in that city. In baseball, he'd be riding buses in the minor leagues for a few years.

Even the injury stuff, I don't buy it anymore. The QB position is so protected in the NFL nowadays. He could blow out his arm or joints in baseball just as easily as football, and I don't know that CTE would be as big a concern for a quarterback as it would be, for example, for a linebacker.

I think this decision is already made. So do the NFL scouts. That's the feedback they've been getting from Oklahoma for months. And you can see why. You can't make a financial case for baseball. You can try, but the numbers aren't there. You can maybe make an injury/wellness case for it, and who knows how receptive he'd be to that argument.

In the end, which one does he love? He just won the HEISMAN TROPHY. And when he was asked whether he would rather win the Heisman or a World Series?

"The Heisman,"

His answer makes it clear.
Click to expand...

Stop getting me all excited CK, this needs to happen now :) You do realise you are going to have to go back to my other thread and give me Kudos, this draft class with Haskins Murray and Herbert is not bad at all :p
 
Seriously though 5’9...
I mean 5’11 is short but can make it work but 5 freakin 9?
There must be a point at which short is too short. Idk. Is it 5-9
Can’t wait to see him vs Bama 12/29.
 
Lovethefish said:
Seriously though 5’9...
I mean 5’11 is short but can make it work but 5 freakin 9?
There must be a point at which short is too short. Idk. Is it 5-9
Can’t wait to see him vs Bama 12/29.
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LOL, he's a short 5' 11" for sure, he's probably closer to 5' 9", he doesn't really play like the height really affects him though, I know college lines are not as big but it's not like he has a bunch ofballs batted down or can't see the wide open receiver down the field. If he does declare and wherever he goes he's got to get a coach that understands how to utilise him. The rules are making it easier for shorter QBs to make an impact, but you've still got to play to his strength, he can't be a pure pocket passer 100% of the time, they need to keep the dual threat and roll him out, this may help a team like Miami who's line is questionable .

The game against Bama will be a huge test of him, it's the closest he'll get in college to face NFL like talent, he'll be tested. I'm going to PVR it for sure, since it's the date of my wife's planned C-section, I'll probably be a little distracted :)
 
ckparrothead said:
How many guys do we know of that have chosen baseball over football?
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Not a quarterback but Kirk Gibson is always the first example I think of. Scary wide receiver at Michigan State. You can imagine what that looked like, if you translate his baseball mentality into running pass patterns.

Absolute defiance. Get out of my way. Big 10 defensive backs wanted no part of him

Gibson was slated to be in a draft with two other excellent wide receiver prospects. I'll trust my memory enough to say they were Wes Chandler and John Jefferson. There was debate toward who was the best but all three were projected to go in the first round. Chandler was the smooth athlete with some Paul Warfield-like qualities so he was generally regarded as the best of the three. I remember Joel Buchsabaum comparing the trio and I wish I had saved that article and his draft guide that year, but I did not.

I remember when Gibson started tinkering with baseball. He either joined the Spartan team or signed a minor league contract. I'm not going to look it up. But as soon as baseball entered the discussion it was initially dismissed as not much of a chance, since Gibson was so dominant at football. But very quickly it shifted the other way, with insiders saying Gibson was likely to stick with baseball, largely due to the longer career and likelihood of more money.

It obviously worked out for him. I remember hustling my USC friends to a Friday night game at the Big A when Gibson was a rookie playing for the Tigers. They didn't know anything about Gibson but he got a couple of hits that night along with standing out with his aggressive base running. Then obviously he became a star for the Tigers in the 1984 World Series before the legendary home run off Eckersley in the 1988 World Series opener.

BTW, the A's were -220 favorites to win that 1988 Series. That's all it was. Conventional wisdom places Los Angeles as some type of huge underdog to defending champion Oakland. Granted, -220 is lopsided for baseball odds but it always amuses me that the odds are not taken in relation to other sporting events, where -220 is not much of anything, basically a 5 point favorite in an NFL game.
 
I'd love to have Slimm weigh in on this, with respect to Kyler Murray and his height.

With respect to the height thing, once you get beyond a certain line of demarcation, let's call it about 6'2" to 6'1", you're already limited in what you can operate in an NFL offense. I know for a fact that a 6'0" guy like Drew Brees is not being asked to throw quick slants as often, that it's a limitation Sean Payton schemes around due to Drew's height (6002). Once a guy gets lower than 6'3" or 6'4", I don't think he's going to drop balls into the shallow middle the way Tom Brady does, for example.

But my perception is, once you've gone beyond that line, once you've gotten shorter than let's call it 6'2", the marginal differences in height don't make a huge difference, structurally speaking. There will be an association between height and certain things, like field vision, being able to use the pocket, being able to get the ball through passing lanes without a lot of PBUs. But it's just an association. It's not structural certainty. It's in the realm of traits evaluation.

RG3 couldn't see the field from behind his offensive line and would have to get out of the pocket in order to get better vision. Russell Wilson had few problems with that, behind a Wisconsin offensive line that were all 6'4" or 6'5" tall. RG3 was 6023 and Russell Wilson is 5105.

Looking at Kyler Murray, one thing that's always struck me is his willingness and ability to stay in the pocket, using the extra time afforded to him to scan the field and find the right throw. He certainly does run around quite a bit, but he also does lots of damage from inside the pocket.

His offensive line are all 6040 or better, with the exception of Ben Powers who is 6032. So clearly this isn't Murray having the benefit of one of those smaller offensive lines. This is a lot like Russell Wilson playing behind a gigantic Wisconsin offensive line.

Getting the ball through passing lanes is always easier for a guy with very quick, very alive feet, and Kyler Murray has both. I've seen plenty of taller quarterbacks who will never get the ball consistently through the passing lanes because they've got dead feet. They don't have a feel for the passing lanes, don't make last second changes in their launching point.

There's a lot of talk about how great the Oklahoma offensive line are and how much time they give Kyler Murray. It's true. But it's also true that his having so much time is a function of his own abilities. I see a LOT of three-man rush going after him, with defenses keeping a spy floating around at the line of scrimmage to try and bottle him up when he scrambles. That works if you've got a guy willing to bail on the pocket early. It hasn't been working for any defense that has played Kyler Murray, because he's willing to be patient, use the time, and find the right throw, often deep down the field.

In the end, for me, when there's a quarterback in the NFL playing Hall of Fame caliber football at 5105, then I'm not going to start making risk-based value calls about a DYNAMIC quarterback talent like Kyler Murray, just because he's maybe an inch shorter than that. I've already made that mistake with Russell Wilson, who I put in the 2nd round, but really wanted to put at the top of the 1st round if not for the height. I'm not going to make that mistake again.

All elite quarterbacks at the NFL level are exceptions to the rule. They're all lightning bolts from God, as Pat Riley would say. That's why the ones playing at that level look so diverse.
 
Anyone else catch Haskins asking Mike Weber for one more year on Instagram? Interesting.
 
Birdmond said:
Anyone else catch Haskins asking Mike Weber for one more year on Instagram? Interesting.
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Yeah I saw that. Shocking, as there's been a continuous stream of "sources" claiming he's coming out.

He SHOULD stay in school. He's got a lot to work on.
 
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