Slimm's 2020 Quarterbacks (seniors) | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Slimm's 2020 Quarterbacks (seniors)

Slimm just curious I asked in the other thread but where do you have Justin Herbert relative to the underclass? I assumed ahead of Desmond Ridder. Do you have him ahead of Fromm or Love?


I quoted you in the other thread.
 
I think the NFL answered that question already. They were unwilling to give more than a 3rd or late-2nd round pick for Josh Rosen.

In this year's draft that meant behind Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins, and Drew Lock, but ahead of Will Grier, Ryan Finley, and Jarrett Stidham.

In next year's draft I imagine it'll mean behind Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love, Justin Herbert, Jake Fromm, and Desmond Ridder (if he comes out as a redshirt sophomore), but perhaps ahead of guys like Jacob Eason, K.J. Costello, Sam Ehlinger, and Steven Montez.

Rosen's value declined because of the way Arizona handled things, not because Rosen is no longer seen as an elite prospect. If Rosen the prospect had been in this draft, he'd been QB1 by a mile. Daniel Jeremiah mentioned the other day that there was no question that Rosen would have been QB1 had he been in this draft.
 
Rosen's value declined because of the way Arizona handled things, not because Rosen is no longer seen as an elite prospect. If Rosen the prospect had been in this draft, he'd been QB1 by a mile. Daniel Jeremiah mentioned the other day that there was no question that Rosen would have been QB1 had he been in this draft.

He basically was in this draft. He was on the chopping block for 2 months. He got drafted in the late second. Should have been a third if Miami had just waited.
 
He basically was in this draft. He was on the chopping block for 2 months. He got drafted in the late second. Should have been a third if Miami had just waited.

This.

He was available to any team that wanted him. Some chose QBs from this draft rather than taking Josh Rosen. Some just didn't want him at all.

People love to confuse and delude themselves when it comes to this player value thing. It's supply & demand, and it prices where it prices. It doesn't mean the price will end up RIGHT. But it does mean that's what the price was decided by the market.
 
He basically was in this draft. He was on the chopping block for 2 months. He got drafted in the late second. Should have been a third if Miami had just waited.

Arizona never shopped him before the draft, and the entire foolish idea of drafting Kyler Murray that was out there basically dropped the ceiling on what they could get in a trade after they foolishly drafted Kyler.
 
Arizona never shopped him before the draft, and the entire foolish idea of drafting Kyler Murray that was out there basically dropped the ceiling on what they could get in a trade after they foolishly drafted Kyler.

After the combine, everyone knew Murray was going number one. Arizona put out news that Rosen was available way before the draft. There was a lot of discussion on this very board about it. Did you miss all that?

The drafting of Murray isnt what dropped the value of Rosen. Its the fact that the market wasnt robust for him. If 5-6 teams were interested in him, he would have gone for a first. I am surprised I am teaching basic economic concepts but here we are.

Its why I am a little down on the trade. Because I think miami could have traded the 3rd after they basically made it all the way through the 2nd round without anyone picking him up.
 
After the combine, everyone knew Murray was going number one. Arizona put out news that Rosen was available way before the draft. There was a lot of discussion on this very board about it. Did you miss all that?

The drafting of Murray isnt what dropped the value of Rosen. Its the fact that the market wasnt robust for him. If 5-6 teams were interested in him, he would have gone for a first. I am surprised I am teaching basic economic concepts but here we are.

Its why I am a little down on the trade. Because I think miami could have traded the 3rd after they basically made it all the way through the 2nd round without anyone picking him up.

This is a good mix of factually correct and a reasonable argument against the trade. To further your argument, his rookie year was bad enough to put him in a group that typically fails. Context is important, and I still think he's in the range of Goff and Haskins, but at some point, it becomes really hard for a QB to overcome mediocrity no matter how bad his situation.

I think teams probably overvalue their 2nd Round picks, though. If Lock posts a better career than Rosen, I'd be pretty shocked, but the upside of a 1st Round QB (who most - not me - liked in the Top 10 before the draft) is just much higher than any positional player. It's a good move regardless of the outcome. Failing is in the range of outcomes, but the cost of failing is much smaller than the reward - so much smaller that even if Rosen just has a small chance of succeeding, the potential reward is more than worth the compensation. Most QB prospects are easy to spot as dead in the water. Rosen is decidedly not that. Questions? Absolutely.

I think a lot of people overrated him, because his mechanics are so smooth. He just looks so good doing it that I think a lot of draft folks glossed over some significant concerns. The league was a little closer to me and some others but still liked him enough to take him 10th. Part of the reason for separating Top 10 QB's from the rest - to me - is protecting players that need good situations from bad situations. Murray looks like he's ready to make enough off-script to find some early success in most bad situations. Rosen never felt like that kind of QB to me. He had some rough situations at UCLA and produced pretty good/not great/less than ideal results. He went into a bad situation in Arizona, and he was appropriately terrible. So, I think his hit in value is largely unreasonable. He's still a 1st Round QB for a good OC, good OL, and solid/good weapons.
 
After the combine, everyone knew Murray was going number one. Arizona put out news that Rosen was available way before the draft. There was a lot of discussion on this very board about it. Did you miss all that?

The drafting of Murray isnt what dropped the value of Rosen. Its the fact that the market wasnt robust for him. If 5-6 teams were interested in him, he would have gone for a first. I am surprised I am teaching basic economic concepts but here we are.

Its why I am a little down on the trade. Because I think miami could have traded the 3rd after they basically made it all the way through the 2nd round without anyone picking him up.

This is false. The fact that Arizona had to trade him is the reason they didn't have a market for him. It had nothing to do with what value the rest of the league put on him. If he were not attached to that team and were a part of this draft, he's the first quarterback off the board. Murray isn't even in the same stadium as a prospect to Rosen.
 
This is false. The fact that Arizona had to trade him is the reason they didn't have a market for him. It had nothing to do with what value the rest of the league put on him. If he were not attached to that team and were a part of this draft, he's the first quarterback off the board. Murray isn't even in the same stadium as a prospect to Rosen.

This is not how it works. If other teams were high on Rosen, they would have offered more than a late 2nd and a 5th. It's the most important position in the game. Teams still had to compete against each other for Rosen - no matter how badly the team had to trade him. If you view him as a solid bet to be a good starting QB, particularly at his salary, you're pushing the market further than the 62nd pick and a 5th.
 
This is false. The fact that Arizona had to trade him is the reason they didn't have a market for him. It had nothing to do with what value the rest of the league put on him. If he were not attached to that team and were a part of this draft, he's the first quarterback off the board. Murray isn't even in the same stadium as a prospect to Rosen.

That is a ridiculous post. One because Josh, can only play with a clean pocket, Rosen isn't in the same ball park as Murray as a prospect. But also because in a QB starved and driven league, you are trying to tell us that other teams didnt run a 2nd round or late first round pick up to the podium for Josh "Best QB in the draft" Rosen, becauseeeee Arizona was forced to trade them? All the other teams just looked at Arizona and laughed that they had to trade the best QB prospect this year and didnt offer anything? Makes sense...
 
That is a ridiculous post. One because Josh, can only play with a clean pocket, Rosen isn't in the same ball park as Murray as a prospect. But also because in a QB starved and driven league, you are trying to tell us that other teams didnt run a 2nd round or late first round pick up to the podium for Josh "Best QB in the draft" Rosen, becauseeeee Arizona was forced to trade them? All the other teams just looked at Arizona and laughed that they had to trade the best QB prospect this year and didnt offer anything? Makes sense...

This is the last I will say on it in this thread, but Josh does not need a clean pocket to succeed. He also doesn't have to run to succeed. Kyler has to run. You confine him to the pocket and you shut him down. Pocket quarterbacks are what wins in the NFL.
 
This is the last I will say on it in this thread, but Josh does not need a clean pocket to succeed. He also doesn't have to run to succeed. Kyler has to run. You confine him to the pocket and you shut him down. Pocket quarterbacks are what wins in the NFL.

Probably a good idea to make that your last comment, because its clear you didn't watch Murray to say such a thing. And Josh does need a clean pocket, it is exactly why he was so dreadful last year, and struggled to take the next step at UCLA, it has always been in the case with Rosen.

The Oklahoma offense that Mayfield ran went virtually unchanged for Kyler and head coach Lincoln Reilly called from-the-pocket pass plays at the same rate he did with Mayfield (89%) and the two signal-callers threw passes from within the pocket at the same rate (86%). Mayfield averaged an amazing 11.9 yards per pass from inside the pocket in 2017, the best mark of any quarterback since PFF began charting college football. Murray would rank second all-time at 11.8 yards per pass, 1.6 yards above any other quarterback in his class.
 
Probably a good idea to make that your last comment, because its clear you didn't watch Murray to say such a thing. And Josh does need a clean pocket, it is exactly why he was so dreadful last year, and struggled to take the next step at UCLA, it has always been in the case with Rosen.

Oh, I watched him plenty. He's a run around QB. I don't like run around quarterbacks.
 
I do think you guys are putting too much into Rosen being a Late 2nd because of the trade. Arizona had no leverage, that definitely dragged down his value. If he was in the draft there's no reason to think he wouldn't be a 1st cuz that's what his talent says.

But i think we high jacked this thread enough. Its about 2020 QBs. I don't particularly like any seniors but I love the underclassmen. That means you are hoping for guys to declare. There's no reason they shouldn't though if they are gonna go top 10 like I think Tua, Fromm and Love will. I was baffled by Herbert staying. Herbert is going lower in 2020 then he would have in 2019 unless he wins the heisman somehow
 
Back
Top Bottom