Slimm's 2020 Quarterbacks (underclassman) | Page 37 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Slimm's 2020 Quarterbacks (underclassman)

djphinfan said:
Slimm, and others, I’d like your opinion on the topic of Tuas numbers dropping below the other prospects if he has to move past his first read.


“His grade on first read throws was 91.6. His grade falls to 75.5 when his first option is covered he's forced to go through his progressions.

455 of his dropbacks as a starter were to his first read option, and only 99 were passes to a 2nd, 3rd or 4th option. When Tua has to go through his progressions, his grade under pressure 46.6 is not real good.

Jacob Eason by comparison under pressure had a grade of 37.6. What would Tua’s numbers look like if he were on a normal college team? I can't imagine they would go up in efficiency.”

What do you think?
Click to expand...

Who graded them?

PFF?
 
djphinfan said:
Discard the numbers?
Click to expand...

I wouldn't discard the numbers. There's so much to look at these days, from so many sources. I linked the Klassen spreadsheet the other day. That thing had tons of interesting stuff. I mentioned in that post that defenses rushed 5+ against Tua more than against any other quarterback in this class. Tua faced 5+ rushers almost 40% of the time. Contrast to Anthony Gordon facing 5+ rushers less than 19% of the time. Tua logically should have a pronounced drop off once he's forced to deviate from his first read, given pressure coming. But if that first read is available then he's doing it into fewer defensive backs than others are facing. Success awaits.

In checking that spreadsheet today the most interesting thing I noticed was the obvious Joe Brady influence on LSU's offense, moving it much closer to current NFL tendencies. The NFL now throws roughly 55% of passes to wide receivers lined up inside in slot positions. That percentage has steadily ticked upward, once teams noticed the superior efficiency to inside receivers as opposed to more traditional outside targets, or running backs, or tight ends. Colleges have really lagged in this regard. Most are still in the 40% range from what I've seen in recent years.

Burrow last season at LSU was all the way up to nearly 48%. That is superior strategy courtesy of Brady's designs and also Brady undoubtedly emphasizing to Burrow where to look. Anthony Gordon was next at 45% then Tua at 44% and Herbert at 43%.

Not surprisingly, Jordan Love was the only one of these quarterbacks who targeted the outside wide receivers (42.31%) more than the slot receivers (38.76%). That is a screwed up tendency. Burrow, in contrast, threw it 18% more frequently to slot receivers (47.79%) than to outside guys (29.34%).

Jordan Love was hampered by all the offensive staff and personnel changes and new coaches who obviously had no clue what they were doing. Otherwise there's no chance they would have him forcing it to outside receivers more than 42% of the time. Of course, it could be Love's long term instincts and small school background with nobody ever bothering to tell him the easier pickings are inside. During that LSU/Utah State game last season I imagine Brady was chuckling at the difference between his designs and what Love was forced to deal with.

Overall these guys have too much parity between inside receivers and outside types. The only ones in this crop who threw it often to the tight end are Jacob Eason (14%) and Nate Stanley (11%).

The numbers I am referring to are scrolled right at the "Target Area Rate" tab:

 
Awsi Dooger said:
I wouldn't discard the numbers. There's so much to look at these days, from so many sources. I linked the Klassen spreadsheet the other day. That thing had tons of interesting stuff. I mentioned in that post that defenses rushed 5+ against Tua more than against any other quarterback in this class. Tua faced 5+ rushers almost 40% of the time. Contrast to Anthony Gordon facing 5+ rushers less than 19% of the time. Tua logically should have a pronounced drop off once he's forced to deviate from his first read, given pressure coming. But if that first read is available then he's doing it into fewer defensive backs than others are facing. Success awaits.

In checking that spreadsheet today the most interesting thing I noticed was the obvious Joe Brady influence on LSU's offense, moving it much closer to current NFL tendencies. The NFL now throws roughly 55% of passes to wide receivers lined up inside in slot positions. That percentage has steadily ticked upward, once teams noticed the superior efficiency to inside receivers as opposed to more traditional outside targets, or running backs, or tight ends. Colleges have really lagged in this regard. Most are still in the 40% range from what I've seen in recent years.

Burrow last season at LSU was all the way up to nearly 48%. That is superior strategy courtesy of Brady's designs and also Brady undoubtedly emphasizing to Burrow where to look. Anthony Gordon was next at 45% then Tua at 44% and Herbert at 43%.

Not surprisingly, Jordan Love was the only one of these quarterbacks who targeted the outside wide receivers (42.31%) more than the slot receivers (38.76%). That is a screwed up tendency. Burrow, in contrast, threw it 18% more frequently to slot receivers (47.79%) than to outside guys (29.34%).

Jordan Love was hampered by all the offensive staff and personnel changes and new coaches who obviously had no clue what they were doing. Otherwise there's no chance they would have him forcing it to outside receivers more than 42% of the time. Of course, it could be Love's long term instincts and small school background with nobody ever bothering to tell him the easier pickings are inside. During that LSU/Utah State game last season I imagine Brady was chuckling at the difference between his designs and what Love was forced to deal with.

Overall these guys have too much parity between inside receivers and outside types. The only ones in this crop who threw it often to the tight end are Jacob Eason (14%) and Nate Stanley (11%).

The numbers I am referring to are scrolled right at the "Target Area Rate" tab:

Click to expand...


That slot stuff is interesting and I’d imagine it’s as likely a security blanket for a qb as a legit flex tight end but I really struggle with ever valuing a slot wr with a top 20 pick. Just from a draft pick positional/ask value aspect. Imo he better be able to do work from more than the slot. And by and large the vast majority of slots struggle with the corner athleticism on the field/boundary

Ie wear coverage like drapes on anything else
 
A lot of the 1st read data is likely directly tied to RPO. Progressions are not part of the package - you’re reading a specific defender in a run/pass conflict.

Also, without looking at any of the analytics data, I’d bet a small fortune that SEC quarterbacks in general see more 5+ man rushes than QB’s from other conferences like the Pac-12 or Big-12.

Watch the games. Teams are basically playing prevent defense against Mike Leach offenses due to the lack of run threat and 4-verts concept. There’s a reason why Mike Leach QB’s put up the numbers they do.

Conversely, some variation of Cover-1 is one of the most used coverages in the SEC. You’re going to see more press alignments and extra blitzers in the SEC than other conferences because the SEC has the best athletes on defense.

The analytics are simply the results. But they don’t explain the relationship between cause and effect. They don’t really tell you the why. Recruiting and coaching on the defensive side of the ball will tell you the why.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
I wouldn't discard the numbers. There's so much to look at these days, from so many sources. I linked the Klassen spreadsheet the other day. That thing had tons of interesting stuff. I mentioned in that post that defenses rushed 5+ against Tua more than against any other quarterback in this class. Tua faced 5+ rushers almost 40% of the time. Contrast to Anthony Gordon facing 5+ rushers less than 19% of the time. Tua logically should have a pronounced drop off once he's forced to deviate from his first read, given pressure coming. But if that first read is available then he's doing it into fewer defensive backs than others are facing. Success awaits.

In checking that spreadsheet today the most interesting thing I noticed was the obvious Joe Brady influence on LSU's offense, moving it much closer to current NFL tendencies. The NFL now throws roughly 55% of passes to wide receivers lined up inside in slot positions. That percentage has steadily ticked upward, once teams noticed the superior efficiency to inside receivers as opposed to more traditional outside targets, or running backs, or tight ends. Colleges have really lagged in this regard. Most are still in the 40% range from what I've seen in recent years.

Burrow last season at LSU was all the way up to nearly 48%. That is superior strategy courtesy of Brady's designs and also Brady undoubtedly emphasizing to Burrow where to look. Anthony Gordon was next at 45% then Tua at 44% and Herbert at 43%.

Not surprisingly, Jordan Love was the only one of these quarterbacks who targeted the outside wide receivers (42.31%) more than the slot receivers (38.76%). That is a screwed up tendency. Burrow, in contrast, threw it 18% more frequently to slot receivers (47.79%) than to outside guys (29.34%).

Jordan Love was hampered by all the offensive staff and personnel changes and new coaches who obviously had no clue what they were doing. Otherwise there's no chance they would have him forcing it to outside receivers more than 42% of the time. Of course, it could be Love's long term instincts and small school background with nobody ever bothering to tell him the easier pickings are inside. During that LSU/Utah State game last season I imagine Brady was chuckling at the difference between his designs and what Love was forced to deal with.

Overall these guys have too much parity between inside receivers and outside types. The only ones in this crop who threw it often to the tight end are Jacob Eason (14%) and Nate Stanley (11%).

The numbers I am referring to are scrolled right at the "Target Area Rate" tab:

Click to expand...

Thank you sir.
 
Pachyderm_Wave said:
A lot of the 1st read data is likely directly tied to RPO. Progressions are not part of the package - you’re reading a specific defender in a run/pass conflict.

Also, without looking at any of the analytics data, I’d bet a small fortune that SEC quarterbacks in general see more 5+ man rushes than QB’s from other conferences like the Pac-12 or Big-12.

Watch the games. Teams are basically playing prevent defense against Mike Leach offenses due to the lack of run threat and 4-verts concept. There’s a reason why Mike Leach QB’s put up the numbers they do.

Conversely, some variation of Cover-1 is one of the most used coverages in the SEC. You’re going to see more press alignments and extra blitzers in the SEC than other conferences because the SEC has the best athletes on defense.

The analytics are simply the results. But they don’t explain the relationship between cause and effect. They don’t really tell you the why. Recruiting and coaching on the defensive side of the ball will tell you the why.
Click to expand...
Ditto.
 
BTW, FootballOutsiders is the one that does the annual breakdown of targeted receivers. I haven't seen the 2019 version yet. In 2018 it went up to 55% to interior wide receivers after being in the 51% range in the seasons immediately prior to that.
 
Just reminder we got QB1!!!

I’m first to admit - not crazy about some of the projection/ lack of production type early picks.
But none of it ultimately matters for 2 reasons.
1. We got Tua.
2. We have 5 picks in top 75 2021.
 
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