Slimms's 2018 Runningbacks (Seniors)

[Pachyderm_Wave]

So right on Rashad Penny. Think you may even have him a bit underrated.

I'll actually probably end up bumping him down a spot or two. He was getting popped at the Senior Bowl...fumbling...and couldn't catch the ball out of the backfield.

Jordan Wilkins is the kid I'm tempted to move up even more. I believe he's significantly underrated and always was. I'm much higher on him than anybody else probably.

 

[ckparrothead]

I don't think one bad week of practices, especially as it may boil down to a few bad practice reps, outweighs the body of work for Rashad Penny. He dominated the game itself. That's more meaningful to me than practices because to me a running back's performance has to be judged in a full tackling, live fire situation.

Jordan Wilkins looks a lot like Kenyan Drake. Not as fast though.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

I don't think one bad week of practices, especially as it may boil down to a few bad practice reps, outweighs the body of work for Rashad Penny. He dominated the game itself. That's more meaningful to me than practices because to me a running back's performance has to be judged in a full tackling, live fire situation.

Jordan Wilkins looks a lot like Kenyan Drake. Not as fast though.

When Tre Williams hit his ass it was a full tackling live fire situation. The practice reps are more important than the game.

 

[ckparrothead]

The practice reps are not more important than the game reps.

They're typically more plentiful, which is why the media narrative began forming that NFL evaluators don't care about the game reps.

The practices span an entire week. The game is a few hours, and you're splitting reps up so many ways in so many different directions, it's hard to get a solid foundation of evaluation from the few reps in the game. Darrel Williams for example got all of six touches in the game itself. DaeSean Hamilton got one catch. Neither affords a solid foundation of evaluation based on the event alone.

Alone is the key word though. The game reps should always be seen within the context of the practice rep, AND VICE VERSA. In the case of Rashad Penny, he had 43 snaps during the practice week in team drills. Only one of those was pass protection.

He got six snaps the entire week in 1-on-1 drills in pass protection. Having seen those drills year after year up close at Shrine practices, I can safely say the halfbacks get their ass handed to them on those drills 80% of the time. And that's probably a generous estimate. That's the same rate you saw with Penny as he only won one of the six reps.

This is a personal opinion. I don't trust practice reps even when they're supposed to be full go. Game reps always matter more. Practice reps may be more plentiful, and that's part of what makes practice so valuable, but on a rep for rep comparative basis for the purpose of evaluation, game reps ALWAYS matter more to me. Always. Especially at certain positions (particularly, running back and linebacker).

 

[Birdmond]

I just love this running back class. It’s kind of why the idea of signing a free agent running back really annoys me.

 

[ckparrothead]

This has to do with All Star events in general and their place within the evaluation.

I look at All Star weeks generally as events that can HELP a player...but generally not events that can hurt a player. Sometimes. But it's really hard to draw conclusions from an event that bears very little semblance to the reality of life in the NFL. In the NFL your timeline isn't a few days, it's a few years. Judging off a few bad reps in an All Star practice would be like throwing out a guy you just signed via free agency or just drafted because his first three practices sucked. It doesn't make sense.

It's easy to LOSE in those practices, and have the losses not really end up meaning much in the long run. But you know what? The opposite isn't true. It's kind of hard to win unless the guy opposite you is just screwing up all over the place. So when you WIN in that setting, I think it's meaningful.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

The practice reps are not more important than the game reps.

They're typically more plentiful, which is why the media narrative began forming that NFL evaluators don't care about the game reps.

The practices span an entire week. The game is a few hours, and you're splitting reps up so many ways in so many different directions, it's hard to get a solid foundation of evaluation from the few reps in the game. Darrel Williams for example got all of six touches in the game itself. DaeSean Hamilton got one catch. Neither affords a solid foundation of evaluation based on the event alone.

Alone is the key word though. The game reps should always be seen within the context of the practice rep, AND VICE VERSA. In the case of Rashad Penny, he had 43 snaps during the practice week in team drills. Only one of those was pass protection.

He got six snaps the entire week in 1-on-1 drills in pass protection. Having seen those drills year after year up close at Shrine practices, I can safely say the halfbacks get their *** handed to them on those drills 80% of the time. And that's probably a generous estimate. That's the same rate you saw with Penny as he only won one of the six reps.

This is a personal opinion. I don't trust practice reps even when they're supposed to be full go. Game reps always matter more. Practice reps may be more plentiful, and that's part of what makes practice so valuable, but on a rep for rep comparative basis for the purpose of evaluation, game reps ALWAYS matter more to me. Always. Especially at certain positions (particularly, running back and linebacker).

Well, here's the deal....All Star games are nothing more than scrimmages. The week of practice prior to the game is more important for evaluators. The majority of scouts and personnel people have already left by the time the game is played. What they want to see are the practice reps.

The one-on-one drills and practice reps are what evaluators are more concerned with because they want to see how kids react to hard coaching. How quickly they correct mistakes. This is where you really learn about how kids compete.

The game itself is too restricted and resembles very little to a real game. No motions no shifts. No unbalanced formations. No blitzes or stunts or twists. No blocks below the waist. No specialty personnel packages at all.

You're even limited in the coverages you can employ. You can't even play C1 in an All Star setting... running backs are running against bland 7 man fronts.

No evaluator that takes their job seriously is going to put more into the game than what he saw during the week of practices.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

This has to do with All Star events in general and their place within the evaluation.

I look at All Star weeks generally as events that can HELP a player...but generally not events that can hurt a player. Sometimes. But it's really hard to draw conclusions from an event that bears very little semblance to the reality of life in the NFL. In the NFL your timeline isn't a few days, it's a few years. Judging off a few bad reps in an All Star practice would be like throwing out a guy you just signed via free agency or just drafted because his first three practices sucked. It doesn't make sense.

It's easy to LOSE in those practices, and have the losses not really end up meaning much in the long run. But you know what? The opposite isn't true. It's kind of hard to win unless the guy opposite you is just screwing up all over the place. So when you WIN in that setting, I think it's meaningful.

I might subscribe to that in theory, but the fact is kids can hurt themselves simply by not helping themselves. Particularly if others at the same position did help themselves. It may not always be enough to surpass, but that's independent to the evaluator and how they had the players rated to begin with.

First of all, Rashaad Penny is a nice back and he'll play in the NFL. Let's get that out of the way....but he needs work. I wouldn't say that he was overmatched by the talent at the Senior Bowl, but I don't think he could stand out as much as he did playing against the MWC every week. It was a step up a few notches for him, and he needs to improve some things. I wouldn't ever drop a player too much for any single data point...or even two. I tend not to overreact....if anything I probably have a tendency to underreact. Because I know how hard it would be for somebody to have watched more of a kid than I have if he's playing college football. Penny's tape over the past few seasons matter also. It's why he was where he was at in my rankings to begin with. But I probably project a few better than him.

 

[ckparrothead]

For a little guy, Phillip Lindsay is extremely impressive in pass protection. He did it literally more often than any other back in the draft, and he excelled at it. He attacks the pass rusher and uses his feet and hands to keep in front of him. He also recognizes and anticipates blitzes, and you see him absolutely stone guys in the hole that are coming in red hot.

Three time team captain, all time leading yard gainer at Colorado. Runs a 4.39.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

You have to add about .08 to these pro day times in order to get a real time. Lindsay is a 4.5 player. He's not a 4.3 player. Still quick though.

Mike Boone annihilated his pro day. That's a kid whose freakish workout numbers are seen in spurts on tape. I've always liked him enough. He's always been here.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

While I like some of the bigger, more traditional backs in the class, it probably makes the most sense for Miami to grab a RB who excels as a receiver out of the backfield, and they can probably grab one on Day 3.

I'm a big fan of Wadley as a receiver (not a bad runner either), and he could be there in the 4th/5th - maybe later.

Not a fan of Ballage as a runner, and he and Samuels probably go Day 2, but if either fell, they'd work very well.

Lindsay and Ito Smith will almost certainly be there on Day 3, and I'd be happy with either of them, too.

Nyheim Hines stands out among the UC who could fall a little. NE, NO, PHI, MIN, and PIT all heavily involve RB's in the passing game, and I think that's where the NFL is moving.

 

[jim1]

Best fits for the Fins imo are in order:

1. Sony Michel
2. Kalen Ballage
3. Bo Scarborough

If Nick Chubb gets back to his pre injury form then he's certainly in the mix, at or near the top. Ballage has speed and power, but Sony Michel looks to be the most explosive to me.

 

[Oraclepz]

I like Sony Michel in this draft. Hes probably exactly what we need to compliment Drake. I like Chubbs but his injury history worries me. Ballage would be a great fit, I was impressed how he moves and catches for a guy his size. as a late rounder D'Ernest Johnson would be a hell of a pick up, like him better than wadley. DJ wasn't a good fit for Strongs offense this year and it was supposed to be his season to shine. He would be a sneaky good pick 5th 6th rounds if he makes it that far.

 

[ckparrothead]

I don't think Dee Johnson was even the best RB prospect in his own backfield. I have a tough time taking him up as a prospect.

I think Darius Tice has a much better feel, vision, patience. He's a tough guy, hard worker, and he's got some of the best pass pro efficiency metrics of any back in the draft (I believe he ranks like #2 out of 100+). He ran a 4.68, which is about right for him. He's never been the most athletically impressive guy. But he did 27 bench reps which is fantastic, and it shows who he is as a prospect, which is a WORK ETHIC guy. I've watched him since high school get better and better through hard work each year. The innate thing he's always had since high school though was the quick vision and instantaneous decision-making ability. His athletic prowess has been earned through hard work, but his vision was given.

Dee Johnson on the other hand always struck me as an under performer. Given what he was coming out of high school, the kind of recruit he was, especially compared to Tice, nobody should have expected he would run 0.11 seconds SLOWER than Tice. But he did, and I think it's because he probably tried to "cram" for the pro day exam, whereas Tice has been earning it this whole time. Johnson has always been the more agile, athletic, speedster. Suddenly he's slower than some 300+ pound guys. It's telling.

If you read up, I said back on September 26, 2017 not to be surprised if Darius Tice out-performed Dee Johnson in athletic testing. That's exactly what happened. Yet I can guarantee you, just about nobody watching USF football would've thought that to be the case just knowing their backgrounds and what kind of recruits they were, what kind of players they were at USF. It's a work ethic thing.

 

[Oraclepz]

I cant speak for work ethic because I don't know either of them but I did see Tice with out his shirt on and you don't get that type of body by dogging it in the gym.

As far as DJ running the 40 slower than Tice I have not seen that anywhere. I saw he ran a sub 4.6 40. On tape and my 4 years of seeing them both I have to disagree with you CK. DJ to me is the better player and prospect. He's the type of player NE, KC ,NO would take and screen you with. Does he have work to do as a runner? Absolutely, but he had Mack in front of him for the first 3 years as you know and I don't think he was a good fit for Gilberts Dive offense. I think DJ will have a good career in the NFL. I hope Tice does too as I like all the BULLS but I have to be realistic here.

I guess we will see down the road my friend.
Go Bulls!