He leads the league in passes thrown out of bounds. His stats remain high because of the simple completions the offense allows him to make.Not so much lost a step (he has), but the frequent bad passes. Misses receivers by 5 yards.
This around the same time last year where his arm started to drop off. I think he conserves a ton of energy in the off season so he can play at a high level for 10-12 games.
if the games against Houston and Baltimore are any indicator, the defense would have to be Broncos level good for them to make it to the super bowl. Even they dropped off when not playing elite quarterbacks.
So of course they will win the super bowl