So...kyler Murray Has Declared. What Does Everyone Think?

[ckparrothead]

Tons of excellent details, CK. I agree with, what I'll call, the thesis of your post: the deeper you get into Murray, the more he impresses, the more he looks like a super-elite prospect. I had a disagreement with Kevin Cole, who I like very well, on Twitter about Murray vs Mayfield as physical prospects. He said he'd take Mayfield height and weight over Murray's athleticism and arm talent. Keeping in mind that I had Mayfield as QB1 and thought the Browns made the right pick, I argued that Murray's overall physical profile is much better. He is literally the quickest QB I have ever watched. It's hard to quantify how important, not to mention impressive, that is. People credit Oklahoma's OL for his willingness to hold the ball for extended periods, but I think it has much more to do with his understanding of how easily he can elude DL. The long TD vs Alabama is a perfect example. Most QB's curl up in a ball when a free rusher comes up the middle, but he was no issue for Murray. It didn't even break his rhythm. While his long speed is outstanding and will create some big plays, his quickness is more pertinent on a play-to-play basis. He has feet like Floyd Mayweather.

The only legitimate knock that I see against Murray is the one year of experience; however, given how masterfully he played and given his greatness at every level, it's not enough to even temper my enthusiasm. I'd put him right there with any of the top QB prospects of the decade. For people doubting he ability to anticipate or go through progressions, they just need to watch his TD passes in the Big 12 Championship - vs the same Texas D that gave Fromm fits.

We are of similar mind on this with respect to Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray. I loved Baker Mayfield. I thought, as you, the Browns made the right choice. Probably as early as December/January last year I decided that Mayfield was QB1 and a cut above the other guys.

But Kyler Murray, it's very tempting to say I like Kyler Murray more.

I personally am not good at comparing my thoughts on certain players by crossing an expanse of years, or even just one year. People ask me to compare this player to what I thought of a player from years ago. I don't like doing that. I find it difficult because I don't quantify QB talent, I qualify it. I've never liked the idea of using quantifiable, numerical representations for QB grades, like you're measuring gallons of water in a bucket or something. The position is inherently comparative, descriptive, and conditional. It's complicated. The time dislocation involved in comparing what I think of a 2019 prospect to what I thought of a 2015 prospect is just too hard to deal with, invariably brings a host of cognitive biases. I can't transport my 2019 brain back in time to 2015 and then debate myself the merits of Kyler Murray versus Jameis Winston, especially since at any given moment I am the sum of my previous experiences.

Short story short I hate the idea of having to compare Kyler Murray to Baker Mayfield, even though Baker is still fresh enough in my mind that I think I can do it without being influenced by those cognitive biases. But in reality, I can't.

The best context I can give really is that yeah, in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2017, and 2018...I had QB1's that I thought could/should absolutely go #1 overall and were legit franchise level players, guys that should hurt defenses, play at a high level, etc. And now, in 2019, I think the same thing.

 

[FINOMINAL]

I needed that too CK, have been scared off by his height. I love the pedigree. I was high on Andy Dalton coming out because he had played something like 45 games, Texas kid, winner. But he never had the highlight reel of a Murray. If he gets destroyed at the next level it will be an I told you so thing. Not many have a career like Drew Brees or Doug Flutie. I still like Josh Rosen too, I don't think his rookie year is an indication that he's already a bust. Whatever happened to sitting a year? I'd take him.

 

[artdnj]

I, too, loved Baker and i am gar drom a qb whisperer in fact i didn't really follow him until the draft. I loved his attitude, moxie, and drive to win.

I haven't followed Kyler much yet but if he from that mold and our staff falls in love I'm all in. I want a qb who has passuon, fight, and above all a winner.

 

[Kyndig]

Oh, I'm with you on this. Murray as a franchise QB just doesn't sit well with me. Additionally, I would prefer we trade down and acquire more picks with the hopes of using them towards building a solid OL.

Get our star QB in 2020 with a decent line in front of him from day 1.

Also a reasonable approach

 

[phinfan40353]

I see now why the Dolphins organization hasn't been good at football for a long time.

Fan bases tend to reflect the organization's mentality in some regard.

Ours is impatience and indecision.

Every off-season, there is a mentality of "one player away". We look forward to free agency. The "big splash", "the hot coach" and "which jersey to buy". The mindset is very short term.

During the end of the year it is "tear it down", "build it the right way", "if it takes years do it", "build in the trenches". The mindset is long term planning.

So, here we are again. Not even a week after "tearing it down" and beginning our "years to do it" and "there will be pain" process, we get a glimpse of this year's "can't miss prospect" and everything goes out the window. We are ready to sacrifice three more years to make our "Super Bowl run".

Any guesses where this freshly hatched scheme ends? Yep, 11 months from now "who hired these clowns?", "Lose for Lawrence"..... Followed a few weeks later by "how much to give up to get Tua"?

I'm embarrassed by how quickly some of you abandon logic just to catch lightning in a bottle.

We still don't have the other 52 players we continually are reminded we need in this "team sport"!

But hey, it's February...live it up while it's the off-season. We can pay the mortgage in December.

Build ladies. Build.

 

[Kyndig]

You rebuild through the draft. Selling the farm does more harm than good for us.

Who are you trading up for?

If you could go back in time? How about Patrick Mahomes?

 

[ckparrothead]

I see now why the Dolphins organization hasn't been good at football for a long time.

Fan bases tend to reflect the organization's mentality in some regard.

Ours is impatience and indecision.

Every off-season, there is a mentality of "one player away". We look forward to free agency. The "big splash", "the hot coach" and "which jersey to buy". The mindset is very short term.

During the end of the year it is "tear it down", "build it the right way", "if it takes years do it", "build in the trenches". The mindset is long term planning.

So, here we are again. Not even a week after "tearing it down" and beginning our "years to do it" and "there will be pain" process, we get a glimpse of this year's "can't miss prospect" and everything goes out the window. We are ready to sacrifice three more years to make our "Super Bowl run".

Any guesses where this freshly hatched scheme ends? Yep, 11 months from now "who hired these clowns?", "Lose for Lawrence"..... Followed a few weeks later by "how much to give up to get Tua"?

I'm embarrassed by how quickly some of you abandon logic just to catch lightning in a bottle.

We still don't have the other 52 players we continually are reminded we need in this "team sport"!

But hey, it's February...live it up while it's the off-season. We can pay the mortgage in December.

Build ladies. Build.

Well, ma'am, it seem to me the straw man you've erected is pretending that anyone says that it ENDS with getting the quarterback. That's just not the case. That's actually what you are saying. You think building a franchise winner ends with getting the QB. In effect you're contradicting yourself. You think there will come a point when the team has been built and are just "one player away".

But, my dear, the fact of the matter is, building a long-term winner in the NFL absolutely, positively BEGINS with finding the right quarterback. And to think otherwise is sheer lunacy. Once you find that franchise QB, the game is officially afoot. The task is to surround the player, and keep him surrounded over time, as rookie contracts expire, injuries happen, etc.

Carry on, Miss.

 

[LargoFin]

Murray is not quite as good as Wilson coming out, not as experienced, not as pro polished as Russell was. Murray still has some highschoolish throws in his repertoire, where he hangs it high down the seam or the middle. It's not too bad because he does not do it a lot but here and there.

He also needs to see it to throw it, so there are anticipation issues. But overall he is the same type as Russ.
The offense will have to run the ball more than we are accustomed to because he is a low volume passer coming in. When they give him larger passing volume and responsibilities he will have to break contain a lot just like Russ.
I don't think he is good rolling left and throwing, so they will have to time it during the game to roll him right.
It will be like that, very similar to Russ. Except he will have to tighten his game a little the first year, no ducks down the middle, and more anticipation and timing routes. He does not have a lot of experience and he will need that the first year.

As far as some other low volume passers, there were Wentz, Newton, Allen, Russand even Dalton. Allen of course is garbage. Wentz is always injured. Newton has been okay but is having a surgery this offseason. So the two guys who have had injury free career are Dalton and Russ, the two guys on the short side. Plus Russ has been the best of these low volume passers, and it's because of his quickness. All that bodes well for Murray.
He has two things he will need to increase his passing volume, a big arm, and great quickness.

 

[Kdawg954]

I see now why the Dolphins organization hasn't been good at football for a long time.

Fan bases tend to reflect the organization's mentality in some regard.

Ours is impatience and indecision.

Every off-season, there is a mentality of "one player away". We look forward to free agency. The "big splash", "the hot coach" and "which jersey to buy". The mindset is very short term.

During the end of the year it is "tear it down", "build it the right way", "if it takes years do it", "build in the trenches". The mindset is long term planning.

So, here we are again. Not even a week after "tearing it down" and beginning our "years to do it" and "there will be pain" process, we get a glimpse of this year's "can't miss prospect" and everything goes out the window. We are ready to sacrifice three more years to make our "Super Bowl run".

Any guesses where this freshly hatched scheme ends? Yep, 11 months from now "who hired these clowns?", "Lose for Lawrence"..... Followed a few weeks later by "how much to give up to get Tua"?

I'm embarrassed by how quickly some of you abandon logic just to catch lightning in a bottle.

We still don't have the other 52 players we continually are reminded we need in this "team sport"!

But hey, it's February...live it up while it's the off-season. We can pay the mortgage in December.

Build ladies. Build.

You build your 53 man roster on day 3 and in UDFA . . . . But on the first 2 days, especially on day 1, you go after special, specifically at the QB position when you don’t have special there already . . . .which we don’t and haven’t had in 20 years.

And Murray has special talent. This team needs a gamechanger at quarterback . . . And if his lack of stature allows him to become an obtainable option come draft time . . . Hell we could use a string of luck for once.

Truth is, CK is absolutely correct. He should go #1 without question (even if AZ has Rosen) . . . .he has that kind of talent . . And this becomes a non conversation at that point.

But I would absolutely love for him to be in a Fins uniform and trading a few high quality picks/players to make that possible is definitely on the table.

 

[Mike8272]

Would I like to see the Dolphins draft Murray?

Of course. The kid is talented and could be the answer to our quarterback situation.

Would I want to see us give up picks to trade up high enough to ensure we get him (possibly 6 to get ahead of the Jaguars, maybe even 3rd if Gruden and the Raiders want him)?

I don't think I would. The kid is talented, no doubt, but with the question marks by his name I feel it is too risky to give up the farm for him. I'd rather stay where we are and if he's there pick him, and if he's not pick the BPA.

 

[Kdawg954]

Would I like to see the Dolphins draft Murray?

Of course. The kid is talented and could be the answer to our quarterback situation.

Would I want to see us give up picks to trade up high enough to ensure we get him (possibly 6 to get ahead of the Jaguars, maybe even 3rd if Gruden and the Raiders want him)?

I don't think I would. The kid is talented, no doubt, but with the question marks by his name I feel it is too risky to give up the farm for him. I'd rather stay where we are and if he's there pick him, and if he's not pick the BPA.

Here is the thing.

He has to be more than just talented for Chris Grier to “give up the farm”. He needs to unequivocally be the option that this organization believes can be the face/future of this franchise and lead us to a championship.

Waiting around for that type of QB to fall in your lap is reluctance, not conviction.

If Chris Grier has the same feelings on Murray as you do, he may as well take his ball and go home.

But if Murray is “that dude”, in his eyes, he needs to be prepared to do what it takes “within reason” to acquire him.

It may not be possible in the end, but he can’t sit at 13 and “hope” Murray falls to him.

He won’t. Somebody will trade in front or a team in front will draft him. You can bet the house on that.

 

[Kdawg954]

And let me say this,

The Dolphins literally have had the most boring offense in the NFL the last 15 years since Ricky initially retired and a big part of that is the QB position.

If any team needs a spark plug like Kyler Murray. . . Its this one.

Trust me, I watched Tua vs. Georgia in the NC and I thought he was gonna be the clear best player in college for two years and I scoffed at Murray when Heisman watch lists were coming out week after week and he was neck and neck with Tua.

I finally sat back and watched him play . . . .and I don’t think I have ever seen a kid that explosive as a runner combined with the skills to throw the football. He is a blur, with accuracy and arm strength.

The size is a legit concern . . . But its a reason why we can have this theoretical conversation about drafting him instead of him being completely out of reach.

Add 4 inches with the added weight and he becomes undisputed #1overall pick territory.

Still may go #1 overall despite the size.

 

[terphin]

Brother, ain't that the truth. This is EXACTLY the kind of guy that does that to us.

I remember watching Ted Ginn and thinking we just hit the jackpot, the human joystick ain't got nothing on this kid. Turns out he like the sideline more than the endzone.

At 13 though, I'm pulling the trigger- hands down.

Jump up for him? What's the price because I wouldn't be willing to give much. We are just not in a position to reach.

But at 13... I'm going back to church.

Ted Ginn is still productive in the league

 

[meatpardle]

Good for him, hopefully will put an end to the 'he's not committed' bullshit (but I doubt it).

I'm not sold on drafting him, my concern is that the offense has to be tailored in order to maximise his skills, and then you're relying on the rest of the offense fitting into that. We struggle enough to put together an O-line to protect a standard QB, who knows what alterations will need to be made to how the line play to help get the best out of Murray.

Is it reasonable to suggest that because of this the QB we choose to babysit/back up Murray would need to be a similar style? And therefore who we choose to release/sign prior to the draft might indicate whether we are looking at Murray seriously?

 

[mrbunglez]

Every one of those top 10 teams could be looking for a qb 49ers have Garrapolo but could be in the market with his injury, just read the Lions at 8 are even saying qb isn’t out of the realm of drafting. I can’t see Miami selling the farm to pick him up unless they really really like the kid. But that goes away from everything they’ve been saying by building through the draft, can’t build through the draft if you give up all your picks.