Some Realism About The Draft

[Da 'Fins]

I know this post has to be a very unpopular perspective on this board, given the frenzy of posts about our trading down and all the wonderful draft picks we are going to accumulate as the Genius Saban takes over the entire NFL. Somehow, one expects the next "mock" to involve us getting five of the top ten rated players in the draft!

It certainly is an interesting few days before the draft with rumors flying and so much speculation about who we would select or whether we'll be able to trade. But, the fact is, the hardest information we have is that a trade down is still very unlikely.

Realistically, we should expect that the odds of our trading down are about 25/75; so too, the odds of our trading Surtain. This has been my view, and that of a few others, for a couple of months.

Then gentleman on the Yahoo site who says there is "momentum" on a deal between the Dolphins and Vikings, also thought the Surtain deal would get down with the Chiefs sometime in the draft! Carl Peterson clearly stated that would be impossible - they won't be able to get a contract done and do a sign and trade once the draft starts.

I also have serious doubts the Vikings will pull the trigger on giving up both their 1st round picks for either of the WR's - there just is not Randy Moss talent in this draft. No doubt the Dolphins have talked with the Vikings and Bucs about trading (probably the Browns as well).

But, don't be disappointed when we are selecting five players in this draft. The odds are in favor of that.

I had thought we might go Braylon Edwards. But, Clayton is evidently getting some information that we are still looking at Ronnie Brown as well as Aaron Rodgers. It may be that Saban believed SF would be going for Rodgers so that he turned his attention to Smith. Now with SF somewhat serious about Smith, he's looking closer at Rodgers. That may be all there is to it. It will be interesting to see if he talks about the pre-draft thinking after it's all over.

 

[CanadaPhinsFan]

Then gentleman on the Yahoo site who says there is "momentum" on a deal between the Dolphins and Vikings, also thought the Surtain deal would get down with the Chiefs sometime in the draft! Carl Peterson clearly stated that would be impossible - they won't be able to get a contract done and do a sign and trade once the draft starts.

I also have serious doubts the Vikings will pull the trigger on giving up both their 1st round picks for either of the WR's - there just is not Randy Moss talent in this draft. No doubt the Dolphins have talked with the Vikings and Bucs about trading (probably the Browns as well).

This part I don't understand about Peterson's quote. A few weeks ago the Chiefs had apparently worked out a contract with Surtain. How hard could it be to just sign the papers now?

I agree it's unlikely the Vikes will give up both #1 picks. It really depends though. That team should be really scared about the idea of going into a season without a receiver like Randy Moss on the roster. I know there were problems, but he did so much for that team when he was on the field. Without another impact player at WR, they could be in serios trouble.

 

[Da 'Fins]

This part I don't understand about Peterson's quote. A few weeks ago the Chiefs had apparently worked out a contract with Surtain. How hard could it be to just sign the papers now?

I agree it's unlikely the Vikes will give up both #1 picks. It really depends though. That team should be really scared about the idea of going into a season without a receiver like Randy Moss on the roster. I know there were problems, but he did so much for that team when he was on the field. Without another impact player at WR, they could be in serios trouble.

Peterson said what he said. The idea that the Chiefs had a worked out a deal was denied a couple of weeks ago, so it probably was more "apparent" than real.

On the Vikes - I don't think they are as desparate as we might suspect b/c their offense performed very well when Moss went down with injury. At the same time, if Edwards goes to the Browns, they still have a good shot at getting Williams. Or, if not him, they can go for Williamson (perhaps they could even trade down to the #10/12 slot and pick up more selections themselves). One of the problems is that Edwards hasn't separated himself from the pack that much.

 

[CanadaPhinsFan]

Peterson said what he said. The idea that the Chiefs had a worked out a deal was denied a couple of weeks ago, so it probably was more "apparent" than real.

On the Vikes - I don't think they are as desparate as we might suspect b/c their offense performed very well when Moss went down with injury. At the same time, if Edwards goes to the Browns, they still have a good shot at getting Williams. Or, if not him, they can go for Williamson (perhaps they could even trade down to the #10/12 slot and pick up more selections themselves). One of the problems is that Edwards hasn't separated himself from the pack that much.

Unfortunately, all of this draft stuff is more apparent than real right now. Peterson is known for playing hardball. I think he's going to see if he can get Rolle or Pac Man in the 1st. If not, he really doesn't have much choice but to give in to Saban's demand for a #2. If that team wants to go anywhere this year they really need to tighten up the secondary.

I guess it's just my opinion, but I think Minn will miss Moss more than they expected. Sure they played alright when he was out, but that was just for limited stretches. It's hard to get rid of one of the most dominating players in the game and not miss a step. He can take over a game so easily. It still drives me nuts to think he could have been in MIA catching bombs from Dan :shakeno:

 

[Da 'Fins]

You may be right about his impact on the Vikes. But, I think they don't think they'll miss him that much.

 

[Dudeman]

I guess it's just my opinion, but I think Minn will miss Moss more than they expected.

I think you're wrong. People think that they're just gonna be running the same offense next year. That is NOT the case. After their playoff loss, Tice stressed that Minnesota wanted to become more of running team.

I actually think that Minnesota will be tremendously better next year. They have upgraded their D immensely, and they will no longer just be relying on Moss. They will have a bunch of good receivers-Burleson, Taylor, and Clayton/White/Williamson. At 7, they could potentially get Benson/Carnell.

The 2005 Vikings will be vastly improved, and Tice will look like a genious for making the Moss trade.

The fans on this board are in for a rude awakening on Saturday if they really think that Minnesota will just bend over backwards to help Miami.

Getting those 2 picks from the Vikings is merely wishful thinking.

 

[Smithboy]

A trade down will be nearly impossible if Saban sticks strictly to the draft chart. I also doubt Minnesota offers both of their 1st's to move up. Some years, perhaps, but not this one.

This doesn't indicate a trade involving different parameters won't happen, either. If you start talking about swapping picks in certain rounds and throwing in picks from '06, maybe we come up with something that seems reasonable to both parties.

I suspect that Saban so desperately wants more picks to bring in his type of players, and especially to start getting younger on defense, that he'll veer away from the value bible ever so slightly to make something work.

5 total draft choices with 2 on the first day is absolutely horrible.

Spielman should be fired Sunday evening at the conclusion of the draft.

 

[so-long-Ricky]

I know this post has to be a very unpopular perspective on this board, given the frenzy of posts about our trading down and all the wonderful draft picks we are going to accumulate as the Genius Saban takes over the entire NFL. Somehow, one expects the next "mock" to involve us getting five of the top ten rated players in the draft!

It certainly is an interesting few days before the draft with rumors flying and so much speculation about who we would select or whether we'll be able to trade. But, the fact is, the hardest information we have is that a trade down is still very unlikely.

Realistically, we should expect that the odds of our trading down are about 25/75; so too, the odds of our trading Surtain. This has been my view, and that of a few others, for a couple of months.

Then gentleman on the Yahoo site who says there is "momentum" on a deal between the Dolphins and Vikings, also thought the Surtain deal would get down with the Chiefs sometime in the draft! Carl Peterson clearly stated that would be impossible - they won't be able to get a contract done and do a sign and trade once the draft starts.

I also have serious doubts the Vikings will pull the trigger on giving up both their 1st round picks for either of the WR's - there just is not Randy Moss talent in this draft. No doubt the Dolphins have talked with the Vikings and Bucs about trading (probably the Browns as well).

But, don't be disappointed when we are selecting five players in this draft. The odds are in favor of that.

I had thought we might go Braylon Edwards. But, Clayton is evidently getting some information that we are still looking at Ronnie Brown as well as Aaron Rodgers. It may be that Saban believed SF would be going for Rodgers so that he turned his attention to Smith. Now with SF somewhat serious about Smith, he's looking closer at Rodgers. That may be all there is to it. It will be interesting to see if he talks about the pre-draft thinking after it's all over.

Your posts seem to have more of a realist viewpoint than anything else as far as I'm concerned. I noticed the same thing months ago when trade talk for Surtain started gearing up. At first 90% of the board seemed to be happy getting a 2nd rounder for him and moving on. Then the next few weeks, afterwards w/all the "hype" posters here are demanding @ least a 1st rounder and potential 2nd rounder.

Like you mentioned now the frenzy has moved to the genius Saban outwitting everyone and getting mutiple high picks for the 2 pick in the draft. It's kinda amazing how the frenzy and hype can really get a hold of some people.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

I will be extremely surprised if we trade down. Your 25% likelihood sounds about right, perhaps even a bit high. Everyone around here thrills to predict opinions, as in the flurry of mock drafts. I'm willing to predict intelligence, as in other teams understanding the talent pool is atypically balanced and trading up would betray the nature of this draft. I've posted this many times, but just ask yourself if we would want to trade up into the top two, given the standard tariff.

I do think Surtain will be swapped, probably very late on draft eve or early on draft day. It just makes sense, from a salary cap and extra pick(s) standpoint. When someone is rumored to be on the block for so long, and the team doesn't deny it, it's very rare a trade does not happen. But that aspect, everyone knowing he's being shopped, naturally diminishes the trade value. You can't start comparing the Buchanon trade in terms of how well Surtain has performed in relation to Buchanon, as some have done here today. Completely irrelevant. Surtain's value is unfortunately set less on ability than the situation, the other team absorbing his cap hit with the understanding we would like to deal him for similar reasons. I expect the key draft pick in the deal to be from 2006, since forfeiting a future pick is always easier for the GM and fans to rationalize.

 

[Da 'Fins]

I will be extremely surprised if we trade down. Your 25% likelihood sounds about right, perhaps even a bit high. Everyone around here thrills to predict opinions, as in the flurry of mock drafts. I'm willing to predict intelligence, as in other teams understanding the talent pool is atypically balanced and trading up would betray the nature of this draft. I've posted this many times, but just ask yourself if we would want to trade up into the top two, given the standard tariff.

I do think Surtain will be swapped, probably very late on draft eve or early on draft day. It just makes sense, from a salary cap and extra pick(s) standpoint. When someone is rumored to be on the block for so long, and the team doesn't deny it, it's very rare a trade does not happen. But that aspect, everyone knowing he's being shopped, naturally diminishes the trade value. You can't start comparing the Buchanon trade in terms of how well Surtain has performed in relation to Buchanon, as some have done here today. Completely irrelevant. Surtain's value is unfortunately set less on ability than the situation, the other team absorbing his cap hit with the understanding we would like to deal him for similar reasons. I expect the key draft pick in the deal to be from 2006, since forfeiting a future pick is always easier for the GM and fans to rationalize.

Agree completely on your first point - good analysis.

Your analysis of the Surtain trade is excellent as well. But, I think Saban has to decide if he wants to stick with a 2nd rounder this year - he's likely not going to get it done. I think part of the difficulty in trading Surtain is we only have one team, at this point, seriously interested. And they are being stubborn.

Peterson noted that he would get Surtain for 4-5 years, whereas a guy he drafts in the 2nd round would play 10. If that's his reasoning, it's not likely we'll get much. But, it could be posturing. The fact is, there is no guarantee he'll get a player that would even start. He does have a proven commodity in Surtain. Plus, the Chiefs have a window of opportunity here if their defense is shored up. Of course, it wouldn't be the 1st mistake he's made.

 

[dolfanmark]

It cracks me up how people are talking about how brilliant Saban is. The guy hasn't done anything yet. The deal with KC for Surtain may not happen. There's an excellent chance we won't be able to trade down. And if Saban winds up taking a QB with #2, the odds are that we'll wind up giving a lot of money to a need pick who may never help us (QBs in the 1st round are failures 70% of the time). And with very few other picks, we may wind up with nothing. Before we declare Saban a genius, let's see what actually happens.

 

[Da 'Fins]

I'm a Saban fan, and believe he's smart, but agree - we can't call him a genius until we see the outcome.

The fact is, he's in a tough position both capwise and draftwise - wonder who put him there???

 

[arsenal]

i think a trade of some sorts will almost definately happen, no way do i think we get 2 first rounders or the fairest value, but i really think a trade will happen, too many potential suitors for nothing to come about...

 

[BlueFin]

I know this post has to be a very unpopular perspective on this board, given the frenzy of posts about our trading down and all the wonderful draft picks we are going to accumulate as the Genius Saban takes over the entire NFL. Somehow, one expects the next "mock" to involve us getting five of the top ten rated players in the draft!

It certainly is an interesting few days before the draft with rumors flying and so much speculation about who we would select or whether we'll be able to trade. But, the fact is, the hardest information we have is that a trade down is still very unlikely.

Realistically, we should expect that the odds of our trading down are about 25/75; so too, the odds of our trading Surtain. This has been my view, and that of a few others, for a couple of months.

Then gentleman on the Yahoo site who says there is "momentum" on a deal between the Dolphins and Vikings, also thought the Surtain deal would get down with the Chiefs sometime in the draft! Carl Peterson clearly stated that would be impossible - they won't be able to get a contract done and do a sign and trade once the draft starts.

I also have serious doubts the Vikings will pull the trigger on giving up both their 1st round picks for either of the WR's - there just is not Randy Moss talent in this draft. No doubt the Dolphins have talked with the Vikings and Bucs about trading (probably the Browns as well).

But, don't be disappointed when we are selecting five players in this draft. The odds are in favor of that.

I had thought we might go Braylon Edwards. But, Clayton is evidently getting some information that we are still looking at Ronnie Brown as well as Aaron Rodgers. It may be that Saban believed SF would be going for Rodgers so that he turned his attention to Smith. Now with SF somewhat serious about Smith, he's looking closer at Rodgers. That may be all there is to it. It will be interesting to see if he talks about the pre-draft thinking after it's all over.

Thank You for keeping it real-ism, I agree, most likely one of the QB's or Braylon will be a Dolphin on Saturday, I'm still betting on Smith.

 

[redhead]

how can you say that there is no "moss-like" gifted receiver in this draft...? Moss was drafted like 20th or more overall (after john avery-ouch!!!) when minny drafted moss they didn't know exactly what kind of production they would get...

both williams and edwards have "that kind" of potential..., and that my friend is what drafting is all about "POTENTIAL" because everything is "UNCERTAIN" when it comes to drafting young players...