Some Thoughts for 2017

[SF Dolphin Fan]

For the first time in a long-time there is a lot of hope and excitement surrounding the Miami Dolphins. Obviously, the team has a lot of needs on defense and a few tweaks on offense. Here are some ideas moving forward.

Avoid Injury Prone Players
It was a credit to the coaching staff that this team managed to make the playoffs with eight starters missing. Was any team more undermanned in the playoffs? Part of this is the way the team was put together. Injuries are part of the game, obviously, but many of the players who were out have an injured history like Pouncey, Jones and Misi. The Dolphins have also been burned by high draft picks coming off injuries namely Jordan and Taylor, who both busted. I love Parker, but he's development has been slowed by injuries. In the salary cap era getting quality depth is difficult. If some of your best players are injury prone it makes it extremely difficult. Emphasize the durable guys, especially early in the draft.

Follow the Patriots Model
Adam Gase has talked about copying much of what New England does. I believe Miami did this last offseason in using free agency for depth and not overspending. That's tough because you do lose players sometimes, but I would guess that New England has been awarded the most compensatory picks since the salary cap began. One of these, by the way, turned out to be Tom Brady. The Patriots have "splurged" a few times with elite players like Darrell Revis and Randy Moss. Miami did the same with N. Suh. That said, Miami has to sign Landry long-term. He's the heart and soul of the offense. We need more Landry's not fewer.

Let's Get Physical
We aren't sure yet, based on one draft, what type of players Gase prefers. I'm hoping it's physical guys. Miami has a few that are near the top of the physicality list at their respective positions namely Suh, Ajayi, Landry and Jones. The Dolphins need more players like that. I'd list the top physical players at each draft position and emphasize that. It was difficult to see Miami pushed around in the running game this year. That needs to change for the team to take that next step.

Think About a Defensive Change
There's a new defensive coordinator in town and the team is essentially in a rebuild mode on that side of the ball. Yes, there are keepers like Suh, Alonso, Wake, Jones and Howard. I'd feel a lot better about the defense if Wake was 25, but unfortunately he can't play forever. It seems like a good time to really examine the defense and possibly make some big changes not only in personnel, but in philosophy. In particular, Miami needs to figure out how to stop the quick passing games of teams like New England and Pittsburgh. My biggest disappointment this year was watching Brady get rid of the ball in about a second with short passes that his receivers consistently turned into big plays against the Dolphins. Miami needs players who can match that speed and can tackle better. What defense would you prefer? I think with the talent at safety in this draft a 4-2-5 with a hybrid linebacker/safety could be very successful. Thoughts?

Draft Defense
Not to be a Captain Obvious, but I'd go almost exclusively defense in this draft. I think Miami can get by with the tight ends on the roster, although it would be nice to have an upgrade. I'm hopeful that the guard need can be filled in free agency. Figure out the defense that you are going to run and then go get the defensive players to make it work. If the team decides to go with a 3-4, then the emphasis is on getting quality linebackers early and often. If its a 4-2-5 a versatile safety might be preferred. If sticking with a 4-3 a defensive end who can set the edge and rush the passer is probably need #1 and then linebacker.

 

[jlfin]

Avoid injury prone players?
Easier said than done. Some of the players you listed only became "injury prone" AFTER they were injured.

 

[Digital]

Great post OP. Those are all good concepts. However, I'm not sure it is quite as clear cut. In general I agree with you, but here is my humble opinion.

Injured Players
Several times in the past I mentioned it ... there is a certain amount of injured players where we have room to gamble on injuries. A guy like Gronkowski was a great gamble, but he is still injury prone. The upside is large and the cost (drafted 2 spots below where we selected Koa Misi) was very small by comparison. So, yeah, I think we should gamble on injured players, but we need to be smart about it. We can only gamble on a couple of them, because if it goes wrong you can compensate. When you gamble on so many (Phillips, Kiko, Maxwell, Jordan, Taylor, Albert, Bushrod, Tunsil, Cameron, Foster, Parker, Williams, Misi, Jenkins, etc.) that's way too many injured players. Not all are draft picks, but the same analysis applies. When we brought in Branden Albert--whom I love as a player and person--that was one of my two issues ... we overpaid for a guy who has a proven injury history and is in the last contract of his career at a key position ... that's worrisome. It proved correct. The Kiko+Maxwell trade was much lower risk, because we got two players plus a draft pick and the two players were at real positions of need and both had high ceilings. That one worked out fantastically. But, sports medicine can't take every injury prone guy and fix him. We cannot have such a high percentage of our Salary Cap on the training table. Bill Parcells went too far in the opposite direction, he took all injury flagged players off his list, which is precisely why we drafted Koa Misi instead of Rob Gronkowski ... and Misi has proven to be even more injury prone and not even one-one hundredth the player Gronk is. So, be smart. But at present, I agree, we have too many injury prone players, and until we cull the roster of the Misi, Jenkins, Bushrod, Jordan and Mario Williams types, there is zero room for injury prone players.

Cheatriots Model
I agree wholeheartedly that you use FA to fill holes in role player positions. But, there is no denying that we had the biggest FA coup since Reggie White when we grabbed Ndamakong Suh, and he has completely lived up to the contract. Now, the Cheatriots can get guys cheaply because they know they'll win, they know they might get a ring, they know they'll get playoff pay, etc. We don't have that same draw yet, so we may not be able to get those deals. But your point about their mindset with FA is something I'm completely on board with co-opting.

Get Physical Players
Completely agree. We have a dominant RB who consistently is among the leaders in yards after the contact and has enough speed to break off chunk plays. The only thing stopping him from being Beast Mode 2.0 is an underperforming (but improving) OL that cannot open holes at the line of scrimmage. With that dominant run game our talented QB and WR's can turn this into a complete and scary good offense. But to make it happen we need a big time OL that can both pass protect and physically open holes in the run game against those playoff caliber defenses like Baltimore, Tennessee, New York, Los Angeles, Seattle, Carolina and Denver. These teams are stout against the run and can very often hit Ajayi in the backfield. We cannot succeed as a running team until we can open holes against teams like that more than half the time. Bushrod, who played valiantly, wasn't good enough last year. He needs to be replaced. He was brought in as a backup swing player, and pressed into starting because we lacked talent. But if he returns he should be strictly a backup. We need two guards. Guys who can move people. It seems Kevin Zeitler may be available as the top guard, and if we think he can fit our scheme, he would likely solve one spot.

Defensive Change
I am comfortable with a 34. But, our personnel doesn't really suit a 34 unless we're going to rebuild without Wake and Suh. While Wake can play OLB and Suh can play DE in a 34, neither is the best use of their skills. Our decision is either to rebuild under a 34, OR build a 43 around Suh and Wake. We chose the latter, and for this point in time I think that is the correct choice. All of our best players fit that system. To change that system would be like what Rex Ryan did in Buffalo, forcing a 34 square peg into a 43 round hole of personnel. It failed. So, while I'm sympathetic to changing to the 34, I think we made that choice when we signed Suh, and given how fantastically Wake has played, we should keep the 43 for now.

Draft Defense
Again this is a great point, and I'm in favor of drafting mostly defense. Whether through FA or the draft we need at least 1 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB so it's wide open. But, we also need 1 OG (2 if we cut Albert and Tunsil shifts to LT), and 1 TE. Those two offensive needs are probably the biggest needs on the team IMHO. If we can secure that run game like we both agreed in the Get Physical Players section, we can start dominating games, which helps our defense. And since Gase's offense is predicated on the TE, it sure would be nice if we could get a TE that could do it all. Fortunately, OG, TE, LB are all positions where solid to good players can be had for reasonable prices in FA and outside of the 1st round in the draft ... so I feel we should be able to fill those positions. But, if a talent like Tunsil falls to us, or if we see an obviously undervalued talent dropping and we need to go get him like Xavien Howard ... those moves take priority over our needs. If it's close, draft for need. If we can get a better player who will start, get the better player regardless of position.

Great points all, and in general I'm behind your thoughts. Just felt like pointing out a few additional considerations. Nice analysis OP.

 

[TheWozz]

For the first time in a long-time there is a lot of hope and excitement surrounding the Miami Dolphins. Obviously, the team has a lot of needs on defense and a few tweaks on offense. Here are some ideas moving forward.

Avoid Injury Prone Players
It was a credit to the coaching staff that this team managed to make the playoffs with eight starters missing. Was any team more undermanned in the playoffs? Part of this is the way the team was put together. Injuries are part of the game, obviously, but many of the players who were out have an injured history like Pouncey, Jones and Misi. The Dolphins have also been burned by high draft picks coming off injuries namely Jordan and Taylor, who both busted. I love Parker, but he's development has been slowed by injuries. In the salary cap era getting quality depth is difficult. If some of your best players are injury prone it makes it extremely difficult. Emphasize the durable guys, especially early in the draft.

Great write up and I agree with almost all your points. However, if after drafting 3 future All Pros on Defense, Butt, the TE from Michigan is sitting there in the 4th round because of his ACL injury...Are you not REALLY tempted that he comes back fine and is an all pro TE for the next decade. Sometimes you take a risk. Id say we cant afford those risks with the top 2 picks...go for sure things. Later rounds, Id take the risk...recall that one of the physical players you mention, Ajayi, fell to us in the 5th due to injury concerns...

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Great write up and I agree with almost all your points. However, if after drafting 3 future All Pros on Defense, Butt, the TE from Michigan is sitting there in the 4th round because of his ACL injury...Are you not REALLY tempted that he comes back fine and is an all pro TE for the next decade. Sometimes you take a risk. Id say we cant afford those risks with the top 2 picks...go for sure things. Later rounds, Id take the risk...recall that one of the physical players you mention, Ajayi, fell to us in the 5th due to injury concerns...

I hear you and, yes, at that point in the draft you take some chances on injured players. I believe Rashad Jones was coming off an injury when Miami got him in the 5th round. That qualifies as a steal. Butt, even in round 3, would have to be a consideration.

I just think Miami needs to avoid those types in round one and two in particular where you are looking for long-term starters. The Dolphins have been much more lenient than other teams with taking injured players and I feel that has hurt this club.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Great post OP. Those are all good concepts. However, I'm not sure it is quite as clear cut. In general I agree with you, but here is my humble opinion.

Injured Players
Several times in the past I mentioned it ... there is a certain amount of injured players where we have room to gamble on injuries. A guy like Gronkowski was a great gamble, but he is still injury prone. The upside is large and the cost (drafted 2 spots below where we selected Koa Misi) was very small by comparison. So, yeah, I think we should gamble on injured players, but we need to be smart about it. We can only gamble on a couple of them, because if it goes wrong you can compensate. When you gamble on so many (Phillips, Kiko, Maxwell, Jordan, Taylor, Albert, Bushrod, Tunsil, Cameron, Foster, Parker, Williams, Misi, Jenkins, etc.) that's way too many injured players. Not all are draft picks, but the same analysis applies. When we brought in Branden Albert--whom I love as a player and person--that was one of my two issues ... we overpaid for a guy who has a proven injury history and is in the last contract of his career at a key position ... that's worrisome. It proved correct. The Kiko+Maxwell trade was much lower risk, because we got two players plus a draft pick and the two players were at real positions of need and both had high ceilings. That one worked out fantastically. But, sports medicine can't take every injury prone guy and fix him. We cannot have such a high percentage of our Salary Cap on the training table. Bill Parcells went too far in the opposite direction, he took all injury flagged players off his list, which is precisely why we drafted Koa Misi instead of Rob Gronkowski ... and Misi has proven to be even more injury prone and not even one-one hundredth the player Gronk is. So, be smart. But at present, I agree, we have too many injury prone players, and until we cull the roster of the Misi, Jenkins, Bushrod, Jordan and Mario Williams types, there is zero room for injury prone players.

Cheatriots Model
I agree wholeheartedly that you use FA to fill holes in role player positions. But, there is no denying that we had the biggest FA coup since Reggie White when we grabbed Ndamakong Suh, and he has completely lived up to the contract. Now, the Cheatriots can get guys cheaply because they know they'll win, they know they might get a ring, they know they'll get playoff pay, etc. We don't have that same draw yet, so we may not be able to get those deals. But your point about their mindset with FA is something I'm completely on board with co-opting.

Get Physical Players
Completely agree. We have a dominant RB who consistently is among the leaders in yards after the contact and has enough speed to break off chunk plays. The only thing stopping him from being Beast Mode 2.0 is an underperforming (but improving) OL that cannot open holes at the line of scrimmage. With that dominant run game our talented QB and WR's can turn this into a complete and scary good offense. But to make it happen we need a big time OL that can both pass protect and physically open holes in the run game against those playoff caliber defenses like Baltimore, Tennessee, New York, Los Angeles, Seattle, Carolina and Denver. These teams are stout against the run and can very often hit Ajayi in the backfield. We cannot succeed as a running team until we can open holes against teams like that more than half the time. Bushrod, who played valiantly, wasn't good enough last year. He needs to be replaced. He was brought in as a backup swing player, and pressed into starting because we lacked talent. But if he returns he should be strictly a backup. We need two guards. Guys who can move people. It seems Kevin Zeitler may be available as the top guard, and if we think he can fit our scheme, he would likely solve one spot.

Defensive Change
I am comfortable with a 34. But, our personnel doesn't really suit a 34 unless we're going to rebuild without Wake and Suh. While Wake can play OLB and Suh can play DE in a 34, neither is the best use of their skills. Our decision is either to rebuild under a 34, OR build a 43 around Suh and Wake. We chose the latter, and for this point in time I think that is the correct choice. All of our best players fit that system. To change that system would be like what Rex Ryan did in Buffalo, forcing a 34 square peg into a 43 round hole of personnel. It failed. So, while I'm sympathetic to changing to the 34, I think we made that choice when we signed Suh, and given how fantastically Wake has played, we should keep the 43 for now.

Draft Defense
Again this is a great point, and I'm in favor of drafting mostly defense. Whether through FA or the draft we need at least 1 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB so it's wide open. But, we also need 1 OG (2 if we cut Albert and Tunsil shifts to LT), and 1 TE. Those two offensive needs are probably the biggest needs on the team IMHO. If we can secure that run game like we both agreed in the Get Physical Players section, we can start dominating games, which helps our defense. And since Gase's offense is predicated on the TE, it sure would be nice if we could get a TE that could do it all. Fortunately, OG, TE, LB are all positions where solid to good players can be had for reasonable prices in FA and outside of the 1st round in the draft ... so I feel we should be able to fill those positions. But, if a talent like Tunsil falls to us, or if we see an obviously undervalued talent dropping and we need to go get him like Xavien Howard ... those moves take priority over our needs. If it's close, draft for need. If we can get a better player who will start, get the better player regardless of position.

Great points all, and in general I'm behind your thoughts. Just felt like pointing out a few additional considerations. Nice analysis OP.

Good analysis on sticking with a 4-3, although I still like the idea of a 4-2-5 with a player like a Peppers. I feel encouraged that this coaching staff will make the right defensive changes. The team to chase is still New England and Miami has to match-up better against the Patriots. Players who can tackle would be a nice start as would a drastic improvement with the run defense.

Agree with you that there are times to take a chance on an injured player. Your Gronk example in on the mark. I think Parker was (will be) worth the risk as well. Just have to be careful not to take so many of those guys. It's astonishing how many of Miami's top players are injury prone.

 

[gofins]

Hard to fivure who to avoid and who to get. Jay had knee questions but he turned into a beast. Hope he stays healthy.

 

[Perfect72]

If you want to definitely fill a hole, then why not:

1. Sign one in FA
2. Draft 1 or 2

That way I think you increase your odds of successfully filling a position vs 50/50 (good or bust) and
worst case: You now have a position of STRENGTH & DEPTH

Just my 2 cents :idk:

I think this year is the year you can do that with the defense.

Offense doesn't need that much except really TE and some OL help. Dolphins could kinda stand pat there if they really needed to.

 

[BSQ]

Fortify the o-line and build a solid, attacking defense. We have most of the pieces on offense but we still need the get a top shelf free agent G and draft another G. When all of our starters on the o-line were healthy we busted up Pittsburgh and Buffalo for 200 yards plus. We must face the fact that Pouncey is a huge question mark going forward and a high quality backup must be obtained. Sign or draft a Center/ Guard that can be a starter at one of the Guard positions with the versatility to slide to center should Pouncey go down again. We must build an o-line that matches up with the great d-lines we face all year long. If we can dominate against the best d-lines we can go deep in the Playoffs.

We all know that LBs are our greatest need on defense. This is the off season where we take care of the problem. We have to remake our LB core with fast, powerful hitters that really show up big on Sundays. No more average LBers, we need some Pro Bowl types in there. This is Tannenbaum's job to get done and he has to deliver. Find us a couple of monsters that can run and hit and COVER TIGHT ENDS. This is easier said than done but our #1 draft choice should be the best LBer on the board at #22.

It's exciting that we have some huge pieces necessary to win Super Bowls. We have the Coach, the QB. the RB, a trio of great receivers and 4 or 5 excellent players to build a defense around. The best news of all is the culture change has been accomplished and the Miami Dolphins are a franchise that will be competing at a high level for the foreseeable future. We have one of the great young Coaches in the game now let's finish the job of building this team the right way. It's should be an interesting off season!

 

[finmann]

Great post OP. Those are all good concepts. However, I'm not sure it is quite as clear cut. In general I agree with you, but here is my humble opinion.

Injured Players
Several times in the past I mentioned it ... there is a certain amount of injured players where we have room to gamble on injuries. A guy like Gronkowski was a great gamble, but he is still injury prone. The upside is large and the cost (drafted 2 spots below where we selected Koa Misi) was very small by comparison. So, yeah, I think we should gamble on injured players, but we need to be smart about it. We can only gamble on a couple of them, because if it goes wrong you can compensate. When you gamble on so many (Phillips, Kiko, Maxwell, Jordan, Taylor, Albert, Bushrod, Tunsil, Cameron, Foster, Parker, Williams, Misi, Jenkins, etc.) that's way too many injured players. Not all are draft picks, but the same analysis applies. When we brought in Branden Albert--whom I love as a player and person--that was one of my two issues ... we overpaid for a guy who has a proven injury history and is in the last contract of his career at a key position ... that's worrisome. It proved correct. The Kiko+Maxwell trade was much lower risk, because we got two players plus a draft pick and the two players were at real positions of need and both had high ceilings. That one worked out fantastically. But, sports medicine can't take every injury prone guy and fix him. We cannot have such a high percentage of our Salary Cap on the training table. Bill Parcells went too far in the opposite direction, he took all injury flagged players off his list, which is precisely why we drafted Koa Misi instead of Rob Gronkowski ... and Misi has proven to be even more injury prone and not even one-one hundredth the player Gronk is. So, be smart. But at present, I agree, we have too many injury prone players, and until we cull the roster of the Misi, Jenkins, Bushrod, Jordan and Mario Williams types, there is zero room for injury prone players.

Cheatriots Model
I agree wholeheartedly that you use FA to fill holes in role player positions. But, there is no denying that we had the biggest FA coup since Reggie White when we grabbed Ndamakong Suh, and he has completely lived up to the contract. Now, the Cheatriots can get guys cheaply because they know they'll win, they know they might get a ring, they know they'll get playoff pay, etc. We don't have that same draw yet, so we may not be able to get those deals. But your point about their mindset with FA is something I'm completely on board with co-opting.

Get Physical Players
Completely agree. We have a dominant RB who consistently is among the leaders in yards after the contact and has enough speed to break off chunk plays. The only thing stopping him from being Beast Mode 2.0 is an underperforming (but improving) OL that cannot open holes at the line of scrimmage. With that dominant run game our talented QB and WR's can turn this into a complete and scary good offense. But to make it happen we need a big time OL that can both pass protect and physically open holes in the run game against those playoff caliber defenses like Baltimore, Tennessee, New York, Los Angeles, Seattle, Carolina and Denver. These teams are stout against the run and can very often hit Ajayi in the backfield. We cannot succeed as a running team until we can open holes against teams like that more than half the time. Bushrod, who played valiantly, wasn't good enough last year. He needs to be replaced. He was brought in as a backup swing player, and pressed into starting because we lacked talent. But if he returns he should be strictly a backup. We need two guards. Guys who can move people. It seems Kevin Zeitler may be available as the top guard, and if we think he can fit our scheme, he would likely solve one spot.

Defensive Change
I am comfortable with a 34. But, our personnel doesn't really suit a 34 unless we're going to rebuild without Wake and Suh. While Wake can play OLB and Suh can play DE in a 34, neither is the best use of their skills. Our decision is either to rebuild under a 34, OR build a 43 around Suh and Wake. We chose the latter, and for this point in time I think that is the correct choice. All of our best players fit that system. To change that system would be like what Rex Ryan did in Buffalo, forcing a 34 square peg into a 43 round hole of personnel. It failed. So, while I'm sympathetic to changing to the 34, I think we made that choice when we signed Suh, and given how fantastically Wake has played, we should keep the 43 for now.

Draft Defense
Again this is a great point, and I'm in favor of drafting mostly defense. Whether through FA or the draft we need at least 1 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB so it's wide open. But, we also need 1 OG (2 if we cut Albert and Tunsil shifts to LT), and 1 TE. Those two offensive needs are probably the biggest needs on the team IMHO. If we can secure that run game like we both agreed in the Get Physical Players section, we can start dominating games, which helps our defense. And since Gase's offense is predicated on the TE, it sure would be nice if we could get a TE that could do it all. Fortunately, OG, TE, LB are all positions where solid to good players can be had for reasonable prices in FA and outside of the 1st round in the draft ... so I feel we should be able to fill those positions. But, if a talent like Tunsil falls to us, or if we see an obviously undervalued talent dropping and we need to go get him like Xavien Howard ... those moves take priority over our needs. If it's close, draft for need. If we can get a better player who will start, get the better player regardless of position.

Great points all, and in general I'm behind your thoughts. Just felt like pointing out a few additional considerations. Nice analysis OP.

Good read....It tells me one thing however, this is not a team that is tweaking, this is a rebuilding effort. That is a lot of holes to fill and most of the players will be expected to come in and contribute immediately and at a high level. Seems like we are still at least 2 to 3 years away from making any serious noise.

 

[BahamaFinFan78]

I've always felt like you should fill needs/holes with FA. You don't want to have to "reach" in the draft. Better to draft the BPA.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

I've always felt like you should fill needs/holes with FA. You don't want to have to "reach" in the draft. Better to draft the BPA.

Agree with this philosophy and I think the Dolphins are getting there with this approach as well.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Good read....It tells me one thing however, this is not a team that is tweaking, this is a rebuilding effort. That is a lot of holes to fill and most of the players will be expected to come in and contribute immediately and at a high level. Seems like we are still at least 2 to 3 years away from making any serious noise.

A good offseason could get Miami close. Look at what Dallas accomplished this year after an outstanding draft that brought Elliott and Prescott. If Miami can find two immediate starters on defense (good ones) and make some good moves in free agency it's possible to contend and go far in 2017.

Absolutely have to hit big on those early picks though.

 

[Sherif]

We need a defensive set for the Cheatriots short pic play. That's all they do is run crossing pic plays that go for big YAC. It should be ruled illegal by the NFL or we need to have a D set to anticipate and foil that play.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

We need a defensive set for the Cheatriots short pic play. That's all they do is run crossing pic plays that go for big YAC. It should be ruled illegal by the NFL or we need to have a D set to anticipate and foil that play.

Unfortunately, I don't think any team has figured this out yet. Better defenses than Miami's have had trouble with this passing approach. Pats are also able to chop block for some reason. I don't understand why officials don't call these fouls.

But, your point is one I totally agree with. Miami needs to figure out how to beat New England in order to take that next step. Otherwise, the Dolphins will always be fighting for the wildcard berth and playing on the road in the playoffs.

I have noticed that the Patriots have adjusted after the Denver playoff loss last year. Now look how quickly Tom Brady gets rid of the ball on most passes. It negates the pass rush for the most part. Miami needs speed at linebacker/secondary to match-up and players who can tackle. Those three yard passes won't kill you unless they are turned into big plays.