Somebody explain to me how this works?? | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Somebody explain to me how this works??

JTech194

JTech194

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I've seen Dolphins fans here on this board as well as Professional NFL analyst that get paid to give their opinions do this and I'm not sure why. A lot of people look solely at what a player did LAST YEAR and decide that the player is no longer a good player OR that the player is now a great player, and that just seems so..... how can I put this... DUMB! to me.

Examples, Byron Mawell..... This is a guy who had 3 good years on one of the best defenses in football playing opposite a GREAT CB in Sherman who teams at times didn't attempt to throw at, meaning Maxwell saw more targets. BUT for some strange reason, people totally ignore what he did the 3 years before Philly and Judge him solely based on what he did last year with a completely new team, new scheme etc... Why not look at his entire body of work and then give an opinion on his future success or failure based off of that?? Wouldn't that make more sense?

Mario Williams - This guy has been dominant pretty much every year sense he's been in the league while in a 4-3 defense. Last year he moves to a 3-4 and doesn't do as well as the previous years and all of a sudden he's not a good player? Yes he's up in age, but didn't he have double digit sacks at age 30? So we're to totally ignore everything he did prior to last year and ONLY look at last year's numbers and decide he's not that good anymore? Doesn't make sense to me

Oliver Vernon - He's been a decent player his first 4 years in the league, had a pretty good year the SECOND HALF OF LAST YEAR and based off of that he's Von Miller\JJ Watt and the dolphins are stupid for not paying him as such and letting him walk? Doesn't make sense to me

Brock Osweiler - This guy played ok in a couple of games last year and now people are bashing the broncos for not giving him 17 million dollars when his limited body of work does not warrant that type of contract.

Wouldn't it make more sense to look at a player's ENTIRE BODY OF WORK and then give an analysis of possible good\bad future play based off of that as opposed to simply saying... he sucked or balled out last year and therefore he will be bad\good???
 
I do think we all tend to rely on "what have you done for me lately", people forget quickly. I disagree about mario being dominant, he's had 1-2 really good seasons. I have always felt he has been overrated BUT you git him relatively cheap and he should be motivated to whip Buffalo so I think you get his best for one year before he goes back to what he did last year.
 
I think that is exactly what gase/grier/tbomb/Joseph (and me) are thinking. Taking advantage of the down year, returning them to their former glory.
 
JTech194 said:
I've seen Dolphins fans here on this board as well as Professional NFL analyst that get paid to give their opinions do this and I'm not sure why. A lot of people look solely at what a player did LAST YEAR and decide that the player is no longer a good player OR that the player is now a great player, and that just seems so..... how can I put this... DUMB! to me.

Examples, Byron Mawell..... This is a guy who had 3 good years on one of the best defenses in football playing opposite a GREAT CB in Sherman who teams at times didn't attempt to throw at, meaning Maxwell saw more targets. BUT for some strange reason, people totally ignore what he did the 3 years before Philly and Judge him solely based on what he did last year with a completely new team, new scheme etc... Why not look at his entire body of work and then give an opinion on his future success or failure based off of that?? Wouldn't that make more sense?

Mario Williams - This guy has been dominant pretty much every year sense he's been in the league while in a 4-3 defense. Last year he moves to a 3-4 and doesn't do as well as the previous years and all of a sudden he's not a good player? Yes he's up in age, but didn't he have double digit sacks at age 30? So we're to totally ignore everything he did prior to last year and ONLY look at last year's numbers and decide he's not that good anymore? Doesn't make sense to me

Oliver Vernon - He's been a decent player his first 4 years in the league, had a pretty good year the SECOND HALF OF LAST YEAR and based off of that he's Von Miller\JJ Watt and the dolphins are stupid for not paying him as such and letting him walk? Doesn't make sense to me

Brock Osweiler - This guy played ok in a couple of games last year and now people are bashing the broncos for not giving him 17 million dollars when his limited body of work does not warrant that type of contract.

Wouldn't it make more sense to look at a player's ENTIRE BODY OF WORK and then give an analysis of possible good\bad future play based off of that as opposed to simply saying... he sucked or balled out last year and therefore he will be bad\good???
Click to expand...

I agree with you, but there are many what have you done lately types that are too lazy to check the entire piece of work, or try to figure out if maybe system. coaching, or new teammates might now have been more responsible with the decline of a players game.
 
These are his career sack numbers. Those numbers seem pretty dominant to me.

4.5
14
12
9
8.5
5
10.5
13
14.5
5
 
For the price I think it is a reasonable gamble that he will bounce back with a good year or two. Of all our moves so far this one made the most sense to me. OV was good but that price tag was ridiculous.
 
First, Maxwell started 17 games in 4 years in Seattle, 12 in his last year. So how can you say he had 3 good years when he was a backup and didn't see the field much? He also has great safeties in a scheme that helped him over the top. In philly he didn't and got exposed. Now that people know the holes in his game, they can game plan for it and his value isn't worth that of his contract.

Second, Mario Williams played in a 3-4 defense in Houston. It was different than the 3-4 in Buffalo but slightly alters your argument. For him, it's more about attitude. He layed down and quit last year eventhough he was paid as an elite player. Those types can affect locker rooms in a negative way.

You need to use as much information as you can to evaluate and project, but you always have to weight current year minus 1 the most bc it's the newest data you have.

one last comment - I don't think Brock Osweiler is a good QB. He doesn't not throw a good ball. His contract is a sign of desperation.
 
JTech194 said:
Examples, Byron Mawell..... This is a guy who had 3 good years on one of the best defenses in football playing opposite a GREAT CB in Sherman who teams at times didn't attempt to throw at, meaning Maxwell saw more targets. BUT for some strange reason, people totally ignore what he did the 3 years before Philly and Judge him solely based on what he did last year with a completely new team, new scheme etc... Why not look at his entire body of work and then give an opinion on his future success or failure based off of that?? Wouldn't that make more sense?
Click to expand...

Bad Example:

Article from Seattle Times during the OTA's of '15 in regards to then rookie, Tye Smith.

The Seahawks teach a press coverage technique called the step-kick, which is pretty much just like it sounds. At the snap of the ball, while a receiver shimmies at the line, the Seahawks want their corners to step with one foot and wait until the receiver starts moving up the field. A corner pretty much has to stand there, like a defender in basketball watching a guy crossover and fake but not going anywhere.

What that requires more than anything is patience, and it is something that most of Seattle's cornerbacks have struggled with in the past, from Tharold Simon to Byron Maxwell to DeShawn Shead. It will take Smith time to get comfortable trusting the technique and himself, and on day one he looked raw.

Full article: Seattle Times
Click to expand...

Not exactly a ringing endorsement for the CB's names that Maxwell has lumped with. His struggles in Seattle also lasted a lot longer than just "early" in his career and have in fact been an issue his entire career.

Maxwell w/ Seattle - Games Started

'11: 0
'12: 0
'13: 5
'14: 12

This especially holds true for last season with the Eagles when he was not being propped up by superior scheme and personnel which exposed his very mediocre and limited skillset. Let's squash this notion that Maxwell had some great career in Seattle and was suddenly derailed in Philadelphia.

And Brock Fraudwieller is garbage. I don't need to see any more of that for a proper assessment.


*PSU Cane beat me to it. Well said.
 
If he plays as our #2 CB and can get safety help I think he's better than what we had. Still need to find a replacement for Grimes. He is not that guy.
 
In short - If an NFL player begins to regress more often than not it's a steep downward trajectory. It's not the norm for a Vet to get cut, land in a less desirable situation, and then regain (or surpass) his prior form...If you're playing the odds, your best bet is to assume the obvious.
I'd also add - as a whole we are a society with a short attention span suffering from extreme recency bias, so that factors in.
Plus there also is going to be a bias depending on where the player ends up. If the Dolphins or Patriots signed the same player, it would be framed entirely differently - Miami would be cynicism (and can't really blame them) while NE is a potential resurrection due to great coaching and a proven system.

As for the specific examples you were referencing...

Maxwell - I actually think his Seattle years are a negative to many. It seems counter-intuitive, but in Seattle he was flanked by All-Pro's in one of the best Defenses in the league, when he left that perfect environment he struggled. Miami isn't Seattle, so that's part of why people are assuming last year is the better indicator of his individual skill.

Williams - I think that one actually has skewed positive. It seems many have given him the benefit of the doubt that ;at year was an aberration.
If someone does go negative it's usually because he struggled with Rex Ryan, which seemed like an oddity.
 
From what I understand, the issue with Williams is that he essentially quit on the Bills last year. So the concern isn't that he's bad now, but that he may just quit again. And Maxwell's time in Seattle is hard to judge because he had elite players around him in the secondary. I didn't watch Seattle's defense those years, but I assume when Sherman is on one side of your defense, the other side will get help more often. And that help was also elite. When he was in Philly, he did not have elite players around him, and he did not perform at the level of a #1 corner, even after the Eagles adjusted to his strengths. His time in Seattle could be more misleading than his time in Philly given the circumstances. I didn't hate the trade like most did, but the criticisms are for better reasons than just a single weak statistical season.

I don't think many people think we should've kept Vernon once we saw he received 17/yr.

Edit: Yeah, PSU Cane pretty much covered it.
 
PSU Cane said:
First, Maxwell started 17 games in 4 years in Seattle, 12 in his last year. So how can you say he had 3 good years when he was a backup and didn't see the field much? He also has great safeties in a scheme that helped him over the top. In philly he didn't and got exposed. Now that people know the holes in his game, they can game plan for it and his value isn't worth that of his contract.

Second, Mario Williams played in a 3-4 defense in Houston. It was different than the 3-4 in Buffalo but slightly alters your argument. For him, it's more about attitude. He layed down and quit last year eventhough he was paid as an elite player. Those types can affect locker rooms in a negative way.

You need to use as much information as you can to evaluate and project, but you always have to weight current year minus 1 the most bc it's the newest data you have.

one last comment - I don't think Brock Osweiler is a good QB. He doesn't not throw a good ball. His contract is a sign of desperation.
Click to expand...

Ummm I'm not sure how many games he "Started" and really don't care. in 4 years in Seattle He PLAYED in 47 games and had damn good stats. Every players excels when put in a "SCHEME" That fits them. Take them out of that scheme and their play drops off. The key is to sign players that can excel in YOUR scheme. And you can say what you want about the safeties around him.... When thrown at.... HE MADE THE PLAYS. PERIOD.

9 Games in 2011
9 Games in 2012
16 games in 2013
13 Games in 2014

Thats 4 years of solid CB play but most people choose to use 1? Again, makes no sense to me and it's DUMB

And the point about Williams is this, it doesn't matter that the system was solely a 3-4 you're missing the point. The point is what is he asked to do in the defense and how is he asked to do it? Did the 3-4 houston ran allow him to put his hand in the dirt and pin his ears back? Or was he required to drop back in coverage, cover TE's etc... ??

Most NFL players are selfish and care a lot about themselves and if they feel they aren't being used properly to maximize their abilities, they act out. or give minimal effort. (see Rishard Matthews) Matthews was all but ready to quit because he felt like the coaching staff wasn't using him properly or giving him a fair shot.

Jason Taylor LOVES Nick Saban... Why? Because Saban had him stand up and it took his career to the next level. That also goes the other way, if a Coach asks a player that's been successful doing it one way to do it a different way and that players is not successful... The player will most likely have huge problems with that coach.
 
JamesBW43 said:
From what I understand, the issue with Williams is that he essentially quit on the Bills last year. So the concern isn't that he's bad now, but that he may just quit again. And Maxwell's time in Seattle is hard to judge because he had elite players around him in the secondary. I didn't watch Seattle's defense those years, but I assume when Sherman is on one side of your defense, the other side will get help more often. And that help was also elite. When he was in Philly, he did not have elite players around him, and he did not perform at the level of a #1 corner, even after the Eagles adjusted to his strengths. His time in Seattle could be more misleading than his time in Philly given the circumstances. I didn't hate the trade like most did, but the criticisms are for better reasons than just a single weak statistical season.

I don't think many people think we should've kept Vernon once we saw he received 17/yr.

Edit: Yeah, PSU Cane said it better.
Click to expand...

I hear you... But again, when thrown at in Seattle, he made the plays. He might have had safety help but there's no reason why we can't design a defense that gives our CB's safety help over the top as well. I don't know if he will be good or not. All i'm saying is that if i were a betting man... I'm going to bet on 4 years of data over 1.
 
JTech194 said:
I hear you... But again, when thrown at in Seattle, he made the plays. He might have had safety help but there's no reason why we can't design a defense that gives our CB's safety help over the top as well. I don't know if he will be good or not. All i'm saying is that if i were a betting man... I'm going to bet on 4 years of data over 1.
Click to expand...

Yeah, someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think most are saying Maxwell is bad, just that he isn't worth the contract. But since Philly ate a good chunk of the guaranteed money, and the Phins can cut Maxwell in 2018 (I think, not sure about that) then personally I find it hard to hate the move. Especially when you also consider you're getting Kiko Alonso, you're moving down from 8 to 13 in a weak draft class, and the Phins had absolutely nothing at CB and MLB. I'm not crazy about it, but I do agree people are being a little harsh.
 
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