- May 27, 2005
- Reaction score
I haven't paid a lot of attention to the quarterbacks this year, but it seems like the consensus is that Lawrence, Wilson and Fields are considered potential franchise quarterbacks.Every GM will do their due diligence and call, because that's what good GM's do. Hell, even the Jags will call, but their call will be about whether they can trade their #33 for our #36 and an additional 3rd or 4th. But while they're communicating (phone, texts, lunch, etc.) the Jags will inquire about what we want for the #3 pick, and whether there are veteran players who they might use to get it. And we'll ask about #1, and they'll make it clear it's not for sale. Only bad GM's about to get fired do not have these conversations. Rarely do they break the unwritten code and divulge the info about those discussions, but occasionally, someone does, and every other GM or future GM puts them on a CLOSE-GUARDED ONLY list, meaning they never reveal their true thoughts because they fear it will get out. They're the LAST people called when we're shopping players/picks in trade, and preferrably, we never get to that call.
But yes, I'm certain GM's are calling about the #3 pick. What we don't know is how badly some QB-needy teams like Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Denver, etc. want that pick. Right now the consensus is that Trevor Lawrence goes #1 and Zack Wilson goes #2, but it's not a slam dunk Wilson goes before our pick, and there's a LOT of teams that would be interested in trading up for Wilson if the price is right. What we don't really have a handle on yet is the markets for Justin Fields and my dark-horse riser, Trey Lance. If one of t hose guys starts to get a bunch of admirers, a team may be forced to trade up to get him ... and we're the gatekeepers. I'm hoping that happens. If offered the #8 pick and next year's 1st, I'd absolutely take that. If offered the #6 and this year's 2nd, I'd probably take that too.
There are a limited number of elite players in each draft, typically around 12-15 guys are a cut above. Some years more, other years less, and who is left is decreasingly likely to be at a position of need each spot down that list. In the middle of round 1 its a bit of no-man's land, where those 2nd round picks start looking pretty good from a cost savings point. At the back end of the 1st round teams often like to trade up to grab the last guy they really believe has a chance at greatness, or some truly elite skill. So if we can stay in that top tier of elite talents, but trade back and add a 2nd or future 1st, I'm very interested. Would I want to miss out on Ja'Marr Chase? No. But if I were stuck with Rashawn Slater or Christian Darrisaw and next year's #1, I'd be pretty happy with that.
The draft rarely is a sure thing. Trevor Lawrence is pretty much a sure thing. Joe Burrow and Chase Young were pretty much sure things. If I'm drafting at #3, he better be worth it. I can see how Pennei Sewell might be worth it to the Bengals, because they desperately need to protect Burrow. Slater has shorter arms, and despite dominant production and manhandling Chase Young, those short arms scare the hell out of teams, so Sewell is the safer pick. But teams that need a QB are generally hell-bent on getting him, and if his name isn't Lawrence or Wilson ... we hold the only pick that assures they get him.
If teams view Lance and Jones pretty similarly, then maybe they wait a little bit and the #3 pick isn't quite as valuable in terms of a trade down. But history certainly shows us that teams will give up a lot to move up for potential franchise quarterbacks.
Carolina, Denver and San Francisco look like the best trade partners. Lots of speculation on Philadelphia, but they may give Hurts a year and try to get him some talent.
If Miami's target is one of the top three receivers, it's possible that all of them will be gone by the 8th overall pick. But maybe that's worth it if you get a Tunsil type return???