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speculation that Tom Brady is not playing today?

nerfball

nerfball

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There's something fishy about the Pats-Fins game

Posted by Mike Florio on December 6, 2009 7:36 AM ET
Several days ago, multiple readers told us of a discussion on WEEI in Boston regarding the point spread for Week 13's Patriots-Dolphins game.

Apparently, the thing was moving in the direction of the Dolphins, prompting speculation that Tom Brady possibly wasn't removed from Monday night's loss to the Saints because coach Bill Belichick opted not to take a shot at a comeback for the ages, but because he's hurt.

We didn't mention it at the time, in large part because Danny Sheridan's line at USA Today had moved only on one-half point, from the Pats being favored by 6.5 to 6.

But now, one of our most loyal and astute readers, who has done more than enough to secure a free PFT subscription for himself and his heirs, points out that BetUS.com has now taken the game off the board.

We've done some more sleuthing. At BetED.com, one of the lines listed in the Las Vegas Review Journal, the Pats-Dolphins game also can't be found. Ditto for Logans.com.

At SportsBetting.com, Miami is now only getting 3 points.

And Sheridan's line has moved to 4.

As we've explained in the past, the line is aimed only at ensuring that, when the game starts, equal dollars will have been wagered on each team. That way, the house generates its profit from the 11-to-10 ratio that typically applies to the winning wagers.

The line moves toward one team when a disproportionate amount of money is being placed on the other team. And it keeps moving until it reaches a point where the betting is equalized.

In this specific case, something apparently is causing a lot of gamblers to think that the Dolphins are going to win the game, since in the opinion of several of the folks who determine the point spreads nothing is correcting the heavy betting trend toward Miami.

We're mentioning this not because we care about the gambling angle -- we don't. But we realize that many of you do, and we also are intrigued by the possibility that someone has gotten their hands on inside information not reflected on the New England injury report.

For Patriots coach Bill Belichick, it's a matter of strategic advantage. For the NFL, however, it's an issue that potentially undermines the integrity of the game.

And it's another reason why the league staunchly will oppose any efforts to further legalize gambling. With legal sports betting comes accountability, both as to the quality of the game officials and as to the quality of the information provided prior to the games regarding the health status of the players. Eventually, Commissioner Roger Goodell would be sitting once again before the House Judiciary Committee explaining why the officials aren't full-time employees and/or why the injury report doesn't consistently include full information as to the status of all injured players.

In this case, only the health -- or lack thereof -- of quarterback Tom Brady would move the line so dramatically that multiple services would drop the game completely. So we'll be watching this game more closely than we otherwise would have been following it today.
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:ponder:
 
nerfball said:
:ponder:
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As it was first discussed on finheaven, there is something fishy going on. I personally think bellicheat is playing with the injury report again. I now see his left tackle is out for the game and i dont recall him being listed out earlier in the week. you will probably see another person out come game time that is listed as probable or not even listed at all. brady or moss possibly.
 
Brady will play....almost as certain about that as I am Ginn will drop at least 1 pass.
 
Even if Brady plays, the line movement and public dollars on the pats suggest that the fins keep this close and maybe win outright.
 
enduro said:
As it was first discussed on finheaven, there is something fishy going on. I personally think bellicheat is playing with the injury report again. I now see his left tackle is out for the game and i dont recall him being listed out earlier in the week. you will probably see another person out come game time that is listed as probable or not even listed at all. brady or moss possibly.
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Sebastian Vollmer has been listed as Questionable all week. He was out last week too. On Saturday they listed him and 4 others as out.
Matt Light who is the normal starter at LT is back. There is nothing unusual about any of that.
 
This is what has been reported.

http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/extra_points/

Vollmer, Taylor headline those out

Posted by Albert Breer December 5, 2009 08:03 PM
WR Julian Edelman, S Bret Lockett, RB Fred Taylor, OT Sebastian Vollmer, and CB Shawn Springs have been downgraded to "out" for tomorrow's game in Miami.
Taylor's absence was expected, even after he returned to practice on Friday. But Vollmer and Edelman had better shots to play. Springs has been inactive the last three games, though he made the trip to Indy and New Orleans, which makes this one a little different.
What does it all mean? Laurence Maroney will again be the primary guy when the offense isn't in the shotgun, Matt Light will start at left tackle, and the Patriots will likely be deciding between Jonathan Wilhite and Darius Butler to start opposite Leigh Bodden.
Three more players will be ruled inactive tomorrow morning.
 
Do The Rings have the word "Cheating" on them in your Photo of the Bling?
 
COHIBA jared said:
Even if Brady plays, the line movement and public dollars on the pats suggest that the fins keep this close and maybe win outright.
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the site i use shows that 90% of the action is on NE yet the line fell that far. this isnt the type of thing that happens often and when it does look out. the line wouldnt move as far as it did based on the players that NE has listed as out. either someone big is going to turn up to be out or vegas has someone in there pocket either way it looks like it going to help us for a change
 
This is stupid, Brady will play. Hoyer would probably beat us anyway, and that would be even worse. I hope our staff has a good gameplan today and it's not the same defense we try every time we play NE and Ricky Williams up the middle on every play. We shall see, I have to leave during the 4th quarter anyway so i'll probably miss the worst of it.
 
Sundance Kid said:
Do The Rings have the word "Cheating" on them in your Photo of the Bling?
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Now why would they want copies of the Fins lone ring?
Come on get over it. You know darn well that the only thing the Patriots did differently then any other team was film in the open. And actually win.
 
Patriots-Lifer said:
Now why would they want copies of the Fins lone ring?
Come on get over it. You know darn well that the only thing the Patriots did differently then any other team was film in the open. And actually win.
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Just to clarify, the Dolphins have 2 Superbowl Rings (1972 & 1973). Nice try :up:.
 
Man i really hope he is not out.. I want win with Tom on there so i do not have to hear my bull **** and also hear TB12's crap.
 
He will play. On ESPN they showed him walking in. NO splint nothing. If his finger was really hurt he would of had a splint or something on it i would think.
 
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