The Dolphins will once again give their fans relevant games in December.
Whether they also give them the franchise’s first playoff berth since 2008 rests in part on Ryan Tannehill’s right arm and whether this diminished offense line can hold up against several more imposing defensive fronts.
In their 23-9 win Thursday, the Dolphins allowed five sacks to a Bills’ defense that leads the league with 39.
That’s worrisome, considering five of the Dolphins’ final six games will be against opponents that rank in the top 10 in sacks: Minnesota (third), two games against the Jets (seventh), Baltimore (ninth) and Denver (10th). And New England is 14th.
But here’s the good news: Since 1990, 61 percent of 6-4 teams have made the playoffs.
As we noted in last night's post, even if the Dolphins (6-4) lose at Denver (Miami’s next opponent, on Nov. 23) and at New England, they have a pretty good chance of making the playoffs if they win home games against Baltimore, the Jets and Minnesota and win at the Jets.
And if they win at New England (7-2) on Dec. 14, an AFC East title is a possibility if somebody can cool off the Patriots, who are averaging 40 points in their past five games. The Patriots have a difficult schedule in the coming weeks (at Colts, Lions, at Packers, at Chargers, Dolphins) before closing at the Jets and home against Buffalo.
There was a lot to like about Thursday’s game, which gave Miami its best record after 10 games since 2008.
Executing a game plan that called for mostly short and intermediate passes, Ryan Tannehill posted the third-highest completion percentage of his career (76.5: 26 of 34, for 240 yards) and topped 109 in passer rating for the fourth time in the past seven games.
He closed at 114.8, moving his season rating to 92.2 --- 16th in the league and ahead of Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson and Matt Stafford, among others. He’s now up to 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions for the season.
"To be able to get the ball out of my hands quickly and into our playmaker’s hands and them [turning it into positive] yards-after-catch really opened things up for us,” Tannehill said. “It settled everyone in.”
In an introspective moment on NFL Network’s post-game set, Tannehill said he believes he “turned the corner” when the team was in London, following a tumultuous week in which Tannehill said Joe Philbin created a distraction by not publicly naming him the starting quarterback.
“When I went to London, I took a step back and said, ‘Make plays, have fun and stop thinking so much,’” he said. “It took me a little while to get comfortable in the offense. I feel great [in this system]. I think we’re pretty good.”
The Dolphins’ offense also got a boost from Lamar Miller, who had 86 yards on 15 carries (5.7 average) and ranks seventh among all NFL running backs in per carry average (4.7). “He ran hard, was decisive,” Philbin said.
And the defense, which entered fourth in the league in yards allowed per game (309.8) and fifth in points permitted per game (19), yielded only 237 yards and nine points.
After halftime, the Bills mustered just 79 yards and failed to convert any of their seven third-down plays into first downs. Plus, the Bills had 54 yards rushing, on only 2.8 per carry.
Still, concerns remain, starting with the offensive line and continued difficulties in the red zone.
The revamped line --- with Ja’Wuan James at left tackle, Dallas Thomas at right tackle, and Shelley Smith at left guard --- blocked efficiently in the run game but had lapses in pass protection.
Thomas allowed two sacks against Mario Williams. Philbin said today he liked how Thomas performed in run-blocking but “there were a couple plays that need improvement in pass protection.”
Other sacks were relinquished by tight ends Charles Clay and Dion Sims and center Samson Satele. James and right guard Mike Pouncey each allowed four quarterback hurries.
“I kind of like overall how they blocked in the run game,” Philbin said. “Our backs ran hard. It’s hard to say we had great protection when we were sacked five times. I didn’t think it was terrible. Overall, they did a good job.”
The Dolphins entered with an NFL-high 43 forays into the red zone but just 20 touchdowns, with that 46.5 percent TD rate ranking third worst in the league. On Thursday, the Dolphins had just two touchdowns in six red zone trips, and Mike Wallace said the Dolphins won’t make the playoffs if the offense plays like this.
"No, not when we’re talking about being two of six in the red zone,” Wallace said. “The problem is not getting down the field; it’s putting it in the end zone. The execution has to be that much better when you get to the red zone. The windows are smaller. Spots are tighter. You’ve got to make a play….. We’ve got to score more points in the first half. I think we do a pretty good job in the second half.”
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