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Sports Buzz: Examining Philbin's TO strategy and how often it works

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gafin

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Sorting out a few more Dolphins issues in the aftermath of Sunday’s gut-wrenching loss:

### So just how unusual is it for teams to call defensive timeouts in situations like Joe Philbin did twice against Green Bay, and how often does this curious approach actually work?

To quantify this, we studied all NFL games played this season and all games played during Philbin’s 37-game tenure and included defensive timeouts that were called by the team that was leading by a margin of one touchdown or less late in the game but were not called because of injury and were not called for the purpose of conserving clock time to get the ball back. (We excluded icing kickers; the Dolphins have lost all three times when Philbin has done that.)

Here’s what we discovered: Philbin seems to call those types of timeouts more than anybody; he did it as many times in the Packers’ game-winning drive Sunday (twice) as the entire rest of the league did in the first six weeks of the season! The Packers hit big plays after both Miami timeouts: an 18-yard pass on a 4th and 10, and later, Aaron Rodgers’ game-winning touchdown to Andrew Quarless.

Of two similar timeouts called in all other NFL games this season, one was successful for the defense (Chicago sacked the Jets’ Geno Smith) and one was unsuccessful (Denver, trailing late, completed a 42-yard pass after a Seattle timeout).

But in Philbin’s defense, consider this: During his previous 36 games as coach before Sunday, he had called a timeout in that type of situation seven times and Philbin’s strategy worked five of the seven. (Philbin is now 5 for 9 after Sunday.)

Of the two times before Sunday that the Dolphins defense failed immediately after a Miami timeout (an 18-yard completion by Philip Rivers, a 4th and 8 conversion by Tom Brady), Miami won both of those games.

Here's when Philbin's approach worked: Last season, Andrew Luck followed two late Dolphins timeouts with an incompletion and sack late in a Miami win. And with the opponent having no timeouts left, Miami’s defensive timeouts last season preceded Rivers’ game-sealing incomplete pass against the Dolphins and preceded each of two Brady misfires (an incomplete pass and a Michael Thomas interception) to close out that December Miami win.

So Miami did the exact same thing last season against San Diego and New England that it did Sunday --- calling a timeout to get organized defensively before the game's final play, when the opponent had no timeouts. Miami made the play to win both of those games last year; it didn't Sunday.

So Sunday was the first time Philbin did this odd timeout thing and lost the game. He said he will continue to assess that approach.

So is his philosophy smart or foolish? Jason Taylor called Philbin’s decision “a head-scratcher” on NBC Sports Network.

Jimmy Johnson said via e-mail that there are “arguments for both sides,” but noted: “If you need the time defensively, you help the offense by giving them a breather and allow them time for a play and substitutions.”

### Why was it a mistake to have Philip Wheeler in one-on-one pass coverage on Rodgers’ winning touchdown?

Consider: Over the past two-plus seasons (one season for Oakland, 21 games for Miami), Wheeler has allowed 105 of 138 passes in his coverage area to be caught (for 1020 yards), with that 76 percent failure rate among the worst for all NFL starting linebackers.

Over the past three seasons, quarterbacks have a 111, 109 and 95 rating in his coverage area. No wonder he was annoyed about being left alone against Andrew Quarless! Miami instead should have used Jelani Jenkins, who has permitted only 10 of 19 passes thrown against him to be caught this season (with a 67 passer rating). Jenkins said he was lined up against a running back on the play.

### Did coaches scold Wheeler for publicly criticizing the defensive call on that play?

Wheeler said no. “And I don’t apologize for anything I said,” he said Tuesday. OK then.

### What Dolphins player, in jest, threatened to bench himself after the game?

Cornerback Cortland Finnegan, who said Sunday: “If I don’t play better I need to sit my [butt] down.”

Finnegan has allowed 18 of 25 passes thrown against him to be caught for 201 yards, with a 95.6 passer rating against. On Tuesday, he said: “I used my neck [injury] as a crutch not to tackle well. No one gives a rip.”

Finnegan, 5-10, said that on Sunday against Chicago, he will sometimes cover 6-4 Brandon Marshall. They have a colorful history; Finnegan said Marshall claimed he was identifying Marshall’s pass patterns before the snap in a Dolphins-Titans game in 2010, and Marshall was frustrated.

Told by one reporter than Marshall does not like him, Finnegan said: “I like him. That’s all that matters. I’m a likable guy.”
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The defense had to endure 20 minutes in the first half while holding Aaron Rogers and the Pack to 10 points. They could have scored much much more. But our DL was great but had to put everything they had into this entire game.

I understand why we called the timeouts. I remember saying to do so because I knew our guys were tired. Probly why Grimes kept falling at the end and why Finnegan kept missing/slipping tackles.
 
It's easy to say that the "situations were the same", but unless each of those situations included the HOF QB coming off a sack/fumble with the clock running and 8 seconds on the play clock, 1 minute on the game clock - the situations were NOT the same. It just wasn't smart in that situation.

Now, the timeout wasn't the only reason the Dolphins lost yesterday, but I do believe it was a contributing factor and one gaffe in a series of gaffes to close out the game.

I do recall being upset the time he did it against the Patriots, and in fact, it would have been a contributing factor in a loss there if Michael Thomas doesn't put up a legendary performance at the end.
 
Our problem was in not having tight coverage and why does any CB assume they will not spike the ball when its Aaron Rogers out there or Tom Brady or peyton manning?

You can never count these winners out.

phillip Wheeler laligaged his way over to his assignment late, and then played lax coverage and Aaron Rogers even looked right at Quarles and pointed forward as if he were signaling to him. Wheeler played like a guy who has no instincts. Which is exactly what rogers was counting on.
 
Like I mentioned earlier during the preseason, our
CB's play too far off the line of scrimmage! I observed this last season as well and frustrated me every time I saw the opposing O easily complete first down passes. Especially with the pressure that we get on the opposing Qb's we must have our DB's play tighter in coverage!

I'm ready to move on from Coyle and his pathetic gameplans!
 
Marley7 said:
Like I mentioned earlier during the preseason, our
CB's play too far off the line of scrimmage! I observed this last season as well and frustrated me every time I saw the opposing O easily complete first down passes. Especially with the pressure that we get on the opposing Qb's we must have our DB's play tighter in coverage!

I'm ready to move on from Coyle and his pathetic gameplans!
Click to expand...

There are times I really cant stand his defense but he I do get what he is doing. He is playing off early and then we tighten up by 5 and start blitzing DB's. sometimes we blitz a DB vs. Brady and its not needed and just is wasted player.

But Coyle in large part is doing exactly what Philbin and Lazor are doing, saving there best for second half. Lazor set up in early second half with that wild 3 bunch on both sides that looked like arena league. Lazor had some funky stuff planned. But the first half? ugly. running it 3 times up the gut at goaline. insane. RT should have kept it on 3rd and 4th down once that run didnt work but guess what? they kept it for the second half and RT had 49 yards rushing in two plays.
 
gafin said:
Over the past two-plus seasons (one season for Oakland, 20 games for Miami), Wheeler has allowed 105 of 138 passes in his coverage area to be caught (for 1020 yards), with that 76 percent failure rate among the worst for all NFL starting linebackers.

Over the past three seasons, quarterbacks have a 111, 109 and 95 rating in his coverage area. No wonder he was annoyed about being left alone against Quarless!
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Why is Philip Wheeler even on the roster?
 
Questions for my X's and O's gurus. Whats the reason that Wheeler(Considering he had the coverage) couldn't get in the TE's belly and jam him? Consider it seems like almost automatic these days once the bigger offensive player (See B.Marshall, D.Bryant and others do it a ton) back you into the end zone they typically use there hands and body to gain separation and leverage...back should type throw almost GUARANTEED TD.

If you decide to jam them at the line doesn't it some what increase the chances that your going to disrupt the time of the play and force the QB to hold on to the ball longer(plus more time off the clock)?

Anyone? Thoughts?
 
How you let yourself get driven back into the end zone and not make the QB throw over you is just crappy coverage. To get better we need to rid ourselves of garbage like this.
 
pags77 said:
How you let yourself get driven back into the end zone and not make the QB throw over you is just crappy coverage. To get better we need to rid ourselves of garbage like this.
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Exactly and that's the question I'm try to get answered in my post below.

"Questions for my X's and O's gurus. Whats the reason that Wheeler(Considering he had the coverage) couldn't get in the TE's belly and jam him? It seems almost automatic in today's game that once the bigger offensive player (See B.Marshall, D.Bryant and others do it a ton) back you into the end zone they typically use their hands and body to gain separation and leverage...back should type throw almost GUARANTEED TD.

If you decide to jam them at the line doesn't it some what increase the chances that your going to disrupt the time of the play and force the QB to hold on to the ball longer(plus more time off the clock)?

Anyone? Thoughts?"
 
SkapePhin said:
It's easy to say that the "situations were the same", but unless each of those situations included the HOF QB coming off a sack/fumble with the clock running and 8 seconds on the play clock, 1 minute on the game clock - the situations were NOT the same. It just wasn't smart in that situation.

Now, the timeout wasn't the only reason the Dolphins lost yesterday, but I do believe it was a contributing factor and one gaffe in a series of gaffes to close out the game.

I do recall being upset the time he did it against the Patriots, and in fact, it would have been a contributing factor in a loss there if Michael Thomas doesn't put up a legendary performance at the end.
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Oh, Skape was upset, well that settles it then.

The funny thing is I got in an argument over this during the Patriots game he said I hate when Philbin does this, I remember he did the same thing against the Panthers and it cost us the game. The thing is we didn't "kodak" vs the Panthers, they had a 4th and 10 and we let the play go, which was the correct thing to do in that situation.

You see whats happening here? He just remembered he hated what we did because we lost, but he totally forgot which side of the "kodak" debate he was on.

I'm sure all in all its likely a coin flip type decision, and its really not even worth thinking about at all because there is no way to prove who it helps more. Its kind of like deciding on whether to punt or go for it on 4th and 2 or try a long field goal. In some cases its probably a 33/33/33 situation and the coach just has to go with his gut, but there should be no right or wrong choice for you fat slobs sitting on your couches.
 
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