Statistical Analysis of Bonamego ST Units

[PhinPhan in MA]

Yesterday, I posted a piece that I made looking into Dan Henning's past statistical results according to the Football Outsiders DVOA databases.

It got a good deal of discussion going.

Granted, a lot of the posters seem to be averse to using these good stats to judge the past successes of a coach and trying to form an idea of how they might perform in Miami, but I am firmly of the opinion that these metrics can provide a lot of helpful insight. I realize that stats can never tell the whole story, but they certainly can tell a large part of the story.

Today I looked into the Dolphins new special teams coordinator, John Bonamego's, past gigs as ST coordinator around the league.

Here's that article: http://phinaticism.blogspot.com/2008/02/analysis-of-bonamego-st-units.html

The first thing that strikes me about these numbers is how consistent Bonamego gets his special teams units to play. His ST units have been some of the most consistent in the league for the past 5 years.

That's a good thing that is made better by the fact that his units are typically above average. His 2005 season was pretty bad, and his Saints unit slipped in '07, but in his four other seasons, he has fielded solid ST units.

After looking at those numbers, how do you feel about Bonamego?

 

[padre31]

A couple of things stand out about those stats:

1. FG blocked both for and against?
2. How many kicks were returned for TD by his unit?
3. How many did his unit surrender?
4. And pro bowlers from his units?
5. onside kicks recovered?

The problem with raw statistical analysis is that it can lack texture and a flavor for what a coach can do on ST.

 

[Shula Fan]

Stats can also make a great team look average. For instance, 1 horrible game with three punts blocked could make the rest of the year look bad.

 

[PhinPhan in MA]

The Football Outsider Special Teams stats do not include blocks or onside kicks.

Here's why:

although blocked field goals and punts are definitely skillful plays, they are so rare that they have no correlation to how well teams have played in the past or will play in the future. Special teams ratings also do not include two-point conversions or onside kick attempts, which like blocks are so infrequent as to be statistically insignificant in judging future performance.

Also, the FO stats do take into account kick returns and kick returns surrendered. This is the system they have devised to do so. (I think you'll see it's more insightful than a simple number of how many TDs the unit scored or surrendered):

The foundation of most of these special teams ratings is the concept that each yard line has a different value based on how the likelihood of scoring changes with better field position. In Hidden Game, the authors suggested that the value of field position for the offense existed on a straight line with your own goal line being worth -2 points, the 50-yard line 2 points, and the opposing goal line 6 points. (-2 points isn't just the value of a safety; it also reflects the fact that when you are backed up in your own zone, you are likely going to see your drive stall, and you'll need to punt and give the ball to the other team in good field position. Thus, the defense is more likely to score next.) We use a more refined set of values based on our research, but the idea is the same.

The rest of the FO stats are explained in full here:http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php

 

[padre31]

Stats can also make a great team look average. For instance, 1 horrible game with three punts blocked could make the rest of the year look bad.

Or they can get lost in the shuffle, when we beat the ravens, we had a blocked FG on them, I "think" JT tipped the ball.