Strategy POLL: If Miami wins the coin toss, should they elect to DEFER or RECEIVE?

[AquaHawk]

Strategy Poll: If Miami wins the coin toss, should they elect to DEFER or RECEIVE?

Last week there was a debate within the game thread whether Miami should elect to defer/receive if they won the toss. Miami won and deferred to the second half and Buffalo took the opening kick and marched down the field. Statistically, there is no advantage and most coaches make the decision based on perceived psychological leverage. That said…

Against the Bengals, should Miami win the toss—what would you do?

Pros of electing to receive:​

• establish momentum
• take crowd out of game
• Slow down the Bengals (who have started fast in Q1, Q3; see below)
• Teams that score first have 64% of winning the game

Cons of electing to receive:​

• Miami has started slow in Q1, Q3 (both defense and offense)
• an unsuccessful start may juice Bengals and the crowd

Here’s average points scored by quarter per team:

2022 (3)

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Dolphins	3.3	9.3	3.3	11.7
Bengals	6.7	3.0	7.0	4.7

Source: TeamRankings.com

 

[mrhankey81701]

I always vote to kick. I like getting the ball to start the second half. If you're behind its a great chance to get back into the game. If you are ahead its a great chance to put the game further out of reach. If you elect to receive, in my opinion, it puts too much pressure on your team to score on the opening drive. If you don't score, then all advantages are gone. But if you elect to kick, it keeps the second half open to possibilities.

 

[Marino2.0]

It’s a new day. I want us receiving. Time to start believing nobody’s stopping our offense again.

 

[Feverdream]

Well... as an old official, I'm going to be pedantic and say... its defer or receive... never 'kick', but...

Take the ball.

 

[DrMultimedia]

Who is this guy in pregame who is waving his hand so much that I can't focus on what he is saying? Oh jeez, Fitz doing the same thing. These folks need some public speaking classes.

 

[marino13zach54]

I’m a defer guy but our defense was put through the grinder on Sunday. I’d elect to receive tonight and quiet down the crowd, hopefully set the tempo on a nice long drive.

 

[MARINO1384]

You always kick, had Tua survived that late hit we were near the 40 with plenty of time. We are probably scoring there to go up at half. If he doesn’t go out, they stay in sync and maybe score after half and it’s a completely new game.

 

[BONG SHULA]

I believe MM hasn’t started a game with the ball yet. Could be that’s coach’s preference.

 

[brumdog44]

Defer. Always take the second half kickoff.

 

[NBP81]

If you defer, you might only get the ball back in the 2nd quarter the way things are going on D...

 

[greasyObnoxious]

it would be nice not chasing the scoreboard early in the game like we have vs. Baltimore, Buffalo and Cincinnati- take the ball for once.