Saw this on the Dolphins Reddit page and followed the link. Again, take this with a HUGE grain of salt as there are better options out there for him as Carter lists in the video in the Tweet. But since the season is pretty much done I figured I would throw this out there for everyone to chew on.
Well done
@DisturbedShifty thanks.
I have a lot of faith in Chris Carter's analysis. He is routinely sound in how he assesses situations, and undervalued among TV pundits, IMHO. Assuming his sources are correct, which is a complete leap of faith because sources have nothing to do with sound analysis, I agree with Carter. Harbaugh's primary concern when he went to San Francisco was to keep his family on the west coast and in their comfort zone. He was given carte blanche by the GM at the time, and was empowered to build the team in the image he envisioned. He eventually felt limited by Alex Smith, and switched to Kaepernick, and ultimately saw the limitations of Kaepernick and exited at the right time. He used his connection with Ross to move back to their alma mater, Michigan, avoiding that team's later-in-life cycle as key players like Patrick Willis sunsetted their careers and his veterans aged. Knowing when to leave is a very valuable skill.
Now, he is looking at the Michigan situation, and it is again looking like he's ready to end his stay. College football is more about recruiting than anything else, so the later-in-life cycle issues are nowhere near as important. But, now fully detatched from the west coast, he's looking at the football situations, and he's doing so with the realization of how both Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick eventually limited his ability to succeed. So, he's looking very closely at QB situations. Anyone with even half a mind would be interested in working with Aaron Rodgers, an all-time great QB with a fair amount of prime years left … in fact, more years than Harbaugh tends to stay at a team anyway. Looking at young QB's, Baker Mayfield is one of the best young QB's, with the attitude and wheels that Harbaugh adores as well as a very accurate passing ability, good vision, and quick release. For what Harbaugh does, Mayfield would be a fantastic fit.
Those two situations lend themselves to Harbaugh being able to implement his system and impose his will in every facet of the organization. The Packers do not have one owner they have to please, and the fans who own them are likely to sympathize more with Harbaugh than any GM, so he will get his way there. In Cleveland they are so starved for success, and their owner having endured so much controversy he is likely to be far more compliant to Harbaugh's will. While nobody wants to be in the division with the Steelers and Ravens, not to mention a talented Bengals team, Harbaugh sees that division as one of all outdoor stadiums in cold weather that are tailor made for smashmouth football against defenses built to rush the passer and less-equipped to stand up to smashmouth football for 4 quarters. From a playing style, they make sense. And, Cleveland has stockpiled young talent on both sides of the ball and still has good draft resources.
By contrast, Miami is a land of distractions, from sun and fun with relaxed atmospheres to warm weather that draws out wives and girlfriends outside almost every day to a night life that is intense and very leisure-focused. Not a community with a lunch-pail culture. Not very conducive to Harbaugh's nothing-but-the-grind mentality. Sure, he made it work in San Fran, with some of those same distractions … but South Beach is a different animal, and he has seen many young players get derailed by it every year. Also, our QB isn't young any more, and while he runs, he has missed much of two seasons with a poorly handled knee injury … not really what you want to base your running QB offense around. Our OL is perpetually plagued, and that's the rock upon which the cult of Harbaugh is built.
In the end, I don't think Miami will be Harbaugh's preferred destination. And these days, he will have his pick of landing spots, so I anticipate he will choose somewhere else if he chooses to leave Michigan.
