"taking Our Lumps In 2019". | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

"taking Our Lumps In 2019".

TeeMoney said:
The most important position is the QB position. Faulk, Fales, or Rudock will start this year, perhaps some middle round draft pick. Also, all those holes Miami's been patching with flex tape and rustOleum are about to bust loose. Get rid of the high dollar FA's, cut, trade preferably, get the team as young and inexperienced as is reasonable. Save a ton of money, aquire compensation in draft picks.
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We have no sure idea who will quarterback this team this year... what Miami will do in the draft ?etc etc etc.....

That said... I will not be happy if we aren’t starting a talented young QB who at least has a chance to be the man.

Fales or Rudfock is not good enough...I want to see them build through the draft and find a QB they have a conviction on. If the QB is less than very promising we take another shot next year.

Nothing matters if we don’t find a QB...and I don’t like the idea of gambling that the guy we want will be available next year.....
 
BlueFin said:
We have no sure idea who will quarterback this team this year... what Miami will do in the draft ?etc etc etc.....

That said... I will not be happy if we aren’t starting a talented young QB who at least has a chance to be the man.

Fales or Rudfock is not good enough...I want to see them build through the draft and find a QB they have a conviction on. If the QB is less than very promising we take another shot next year.

Nothing matters if we don’t find a QB...and I don’t like the idea of gambling that the guy we want will be available next year.....
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You can only play the guys that are on your team.
 
Digital said:
Neither of us are drafting for the Dolphins. Yeah, I'm saying I have no faith in the Dolphins drafting QB prospects that aren't generally considered elite prospects. My rationale … we have had zero good QB's who were not elite prospects. The only great QB's we've had were Bob Griese (top end of the 1st round when he came out) and Marino, who should have been one of the top 2 picks except for a last-minute rumor that derailed his draft stock in an era when not everyone had great information about prospects. The rest of our drafted QB's have not been top QB's.
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Here is my problem. Using your criteria of finding 'elite prospects,' I'll use my own test . . . any QB taken in the top 3 of a draft is an "elite prospect" (emphasis on "prospect").
Here are the QBs taken top 5 from 2006>2016. How many of those elite prospects are 'elite?' To make it easier, how many are top 5?
V Young, Russel, M Ryan, Stafford, Sanchez, Bradford, Newton, Luck, RGIII, Bortles, Winston, Matiota, Goff, Wentz.

A couple of points. Yes Miami hasn't attempted to draft a high R1 QB, but those who did failed miserably. It isn't just a Miami thing.
For those wanting to move up, failure is far more likely. I don't mind moving up 2-4 spots, but moving from #10 to #2 is expensive and history shows the likely result is failure.
There is no correlation between "elite prospects" and elite QBs.

One more time . . . I'm not against moving up . . . some. I'll take that gamble. My problem in this whole discussion is the apparent absence of reality of some posters. 'Tank THIS year and draft our QB in '20.' POOF!!!! Miami now has its elite QB. Ummm, no.

Yes, Miami and other teams have failed. Yes, a top QB can't be overrated. Yes, try to get a top QB. But stay close to the shores of reality.
 
I have a problem with "tanking". It boils down to this. Say we do "tank". Get a top 3 QB. Who's to say that he will either a) be any good - Manziel or b) get hurt and hardly play for us - Wentz. Then you have wasted the great/good draft pick. Also, I am assuming (yes, I know what assume means) that the vast majority of individuals on this site have never played sports competitively (sarcasm intended). Do you honestly feel that a player making millions of dollars will be on board with "tanking". Meaning that he doesn't REALLY need to try this year. Oh, but next year when we get the next great QB, then you can play your best. Or, does our coach have our kicker miss that last second field goal that would put us a win #8.
I think the players/coaches/front office folks all want to win and will give it their best to win. Anything other than that is a waste of our time (as fans) and players/coaches time. I would hope that my team (yes, the Dolphins) would never consider tanking. Win all they can. Say they do win 9 games with Fales at QB. Maybe he even looks good. Good enough to play in 2020. Maybe make the playoffs that next year. Then where would tanking fit in. Do you think Don Shula would EVER tank a season? I didn't think so.
 
hab321 said:
I have a problem with "tanking". It boils down to this. Say we do "tank". Get a top 3 QB. Who's to say that he will either a) be any good - Manziel or b) get hurt and hardly play for us - Wentz. Then you have wasted the great/good draft pick. Also, I am assuming (yes, I know what assume means) that the vast majority of individuals on this site have never played sports competitively (sarcasm intended). Do you honestly feel that a player making millions of dollars will be on board with "tanking". Meaning that he doesn't REALLY need to try this year. Oh, but next year when we get the next great QB, then you can play your best. Or, does our coach have our kicker miss that last second field goal that would put us a win #8.
I think the players/coaches/front office folks all want to win and will give it their best to win. Anything other than that is a waste of our time (as fans) and players/coaches time. I would hope that my team (yes, the Dolphins) would never consider tanking. Win all they can. Say they do win 9 games with Fales at QB. Maybe he even looks good. Good enough to play in 2020. Maybe make the playoffs that next year. Then where would tanking fit in. Do you think Don Shula would EVER tank a season? I didn't think so.
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I agree partly. As others have said, don't tank INTENTIONALLY. That is, don't ask players to go half speed or miss a FG. These guys are playing for their NEXT team. Build a roster with glaring holes and let those players play as best they can.

I agree on the QB. Just posted my opinion earlier. That's why I don't want to trade this year's 1st/2nd, and next year's 1st/2nd.

The debate here seems more around the definition. I prefer 'rebuild.' I think a few of the players many want gone will be back in '19. Every HC turns over personnel - tank or not. I expect more than usual. I DON'T expect keeping a core group and dumping the rest. I don't expect a rebuild in '19 and a playoff in '21. Rebuilding, sans luck, will take time.
 
If this team stays healthy and they dont trade all of the young talent I think they will win more than expected even with a bum qb. Guys like Drake, Wilson, and even Grant can win games with a couple of plays
 
Embrace the tank. Become one with it. So when your buddies start giving you **** about your team we have a built in excuse ready for their asses haha "we mean to suck this bad"
 
There is no such thing as tanking. That’s a Madden football mentality that has no basis in reality. You build through acquiring players every year that fit your scheme until you are able to dictate to the other teams what you want to do. The draft is a small part of that, but most of your team comes through signings of guys already in the league. As a coach, you need guys that can execute your strategy of advancing the football or preventing that. It’s a simple game with unlimited complexity in individual moving parts. If you put the machine together, and as a coach, winning means out game planning the opponent and having the guys to execute your plan, period. Your quarterback can come from anywhere. Those things really don’t matter. We have had many years of inconsistency in players and scheme. That does require a rebuild in organizational mentality here, but no team is ever that far away from turning it around with a great coach and an organization that completely understands the scheme and maximizes personnel and contracts that consistently keep an eye on the prize.
 
No brand new head coach and new staff will ever take over and not try to win every game. Especially our new coach, that probably wants to put to rest that no one is successful once they leave Belichick.
“Tanking” is silly talk.
Who in any position starts a new job, and walks in on day one, and says, ‘I think I’m gonna totally suck at this on purpose’
 
fansinceGWilson said:
Here is my problem. Using your criteria of finding 'elite prospects,' I'll use my own test . . . any QB taken in the top 3 of a draft is an "elite prospect" (emphasis on "prospect").
Here are the QBs taken top 5 from 2006>2016. How many of those elite prospects are 'elite?' To make it easier, how many are top 5?
V Young, Russel, M Ryan, Stafford, Sanchez, Bradford, Newton, Luck, RGIII, Bortles, Winston, Matiota, Goff, Wentz.

A couple of points. Yes Miami hasn't attempted to draft a high R1 QB, but those who did failed miserably. It isn't just a Miami thing.
For those wanting to move up, failure is far more likely. I don't mind moving up 2-4 spots, but moving from #10 to #2 is expensive and history shows the likely result is failure.
There is no correlation between "elite prospects" and elite QBs.

One more time . . . I'm not against moving up . . . some. I'll take that gamble. My problem in this whole discussion is the apparent absence of reality of some posters. 'Tank THIS year and draft our QB in '20.' POOF!!!! Miami now has its elite QB. Ummm, no.

Yes, Miami and other teams have failed. Yes, a top QB can't be overrated. Yes, try to get a top QB. But stay close to the shores of reality.
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I like your approach. Let's now apply that to the rest of the QB's taken. Please do that analysis to all the 2nd round QB's since Vince Young. I'm confident that the percentage of successes will be even worse. And if you do that same analysis by round, you'll quickly find that the lack of success we have shown in round 2-7 are not unique. Those QB's usually do not work out. But let's not cherry pick just the top 3, or just round 1. For those numbers to have real meaning we would want that analysis for all of the rounds, wouldn't we?

My point is two-fold:
1) The chances of a prospect becoming a good QB are low, but significantly higher if they are drafted in round 1 and even higher if they are drafted near the top of round 1.
2) The Dolphins have shown a no success drafting developmental or risky QB's and their only real success drafting QB's has been players generally considered elite prospects.

That is the data I'm seeing. Given that information, my recommendation would be that if we are investing in a QB, we would be wise to only invest in one that is generally considered an elite prospect. Our track record is abysmal, and doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different result is Albert Einstein's definition of insanity. I recognize that that is not really the case here, as these are prospects, projections, educated guesses, and there is no such thing as a can't-miss prospect. Even Andrew Luck could be considered a bust from the perspective of staying healthy. But, none of these decisions makers leads me to believe they can find a rough gem and polish him. None of the evidence suggests that drafting non-elite QB's has been a good decision for us. None of the evidence points to our current process working. I see one way that offers the best odds of any of these statistics--the same statistics you are using. That way is to draft an elite QB prospect at the top of round 1, and I concur that there are no guarantees that it will work. But there are data points and evidence that suggests that this has worked for us in the past and it is the best chance of success for most NFL teams.

We both want the same thing … a franchise QB who Coach Flores can build a team around that ultimately leads us to becoming a perennial Super Bowl contender. I am advocating the method that has led to the highest success rate, and I'm OK with tanking one year to obtain that method. That's just my $0.02.
 
Well, four wins would likely put Miami in a position for one of the top three quarterbacks. Might have to go 2-14 to get the top overall pick.

I think a lot depends on how the 2019 draft breaks for the Dolphins. If one of the top quarterbacks -- Haskins, Murray, Lock or Jones -- drops to #13, and if Miami is sold on that player, it could change the entire strategy for 2020. I doubt the team would trade up to get one in 2019, but that's a possibility as well. It really comes down to how they feel about one of those guys.

If not a qb at #13, I think the philosophy will be to build the trenches and maybe go with Luke Faulk in 2019. That would be a formula that could net Miami the #1 overall pick in 2020.
 
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