"taking Our Lumps In 2019".

Digital

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Agree, but I'll pick one nit. I'd say "The likelihood of ANY team finding and developing a raw gem QB are very low." There are those in denial who seem to thnk Miami is the ONLY team incapable of finding a 'franchise QB,' yet, I'd suggest everyone look at my list above and name the 'elite' or 'franchise' QBs on that list. Not good odds. By all means, TRY. But don't be disappointed with a 'miss,' like most other teams since 2005.
That's not the metric. The metric would be to look at all of our non-first round QB's selected, and what our % of them that are elite. That statistic is 0.00% … so our chance of finding an elite QB outside of the first round based on the entire history of Dolphins draft data is 0.00%.

We could look at every QB drafted outside of the first round by any franchise since the beginning of the NFL, or if you want more recent data since Vince Young was drafted, as he was the earliest benchmark you used. The data is clear .. the % chance of finding those guys outside of the 1st round is very, very low. I'm not interested in wasting more draft picks for the next Chad Henne, Pat White, or John Beck. What I want is the same thing you want, an elite QB. Not sure there's anything more to say here. Unless you can prove to me that it is statistically better to try another approach, I'm not going to be persuaded to sit in the stream of mediocrity and pan for gold. Apparently, unless I can prove to you that it is statistically impossible to find gold in that stream, I can not convince you that going where the gold is more abundant is the best idea. We are at an impasse.
 

jazz015

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I am curious what you consider "quick"?

Assuming we wait for 2020 to take a QB, I believe the following year we could be a 10 win team.

Of course that is dependent upon us having chosen both the QB, and coaching staff wisely.
The first year with our new QB would be a feeling out process. We would be looking for the pros and cons of his game. That next year would be pur playoff push with an ascending team and cap room. Of course a rookie QB can always win the super bowl, you just never know
 

fansinceGWilson

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That's not the metric. The metric would be to look at all of our non-first round QB's selected, and what our % of them that are elite. That statistic is 0.00% … so our chance of finding an elite QB outside of the first round based on the entire history of Dolphins draft data is 0.00%.

We could look at every QB drafted outside of the first round by any franchise since the beginning of the NFL, or if you want more recent data since Vince Young was drafted, as he was the earliest benchmark you used. The data is clear .. the % chance of finding those guys outside of the 1st round is very, very low. I'm not interested in wasting more draft picks for the next Chad Henne, Pat White, or John Beck. What I want is the same thing you want, an elite QB. Not sure there's anything more to say here. Unless you can prove to me that it is statistically better to try another approach, I'm not going to be persuaded to sit in the stream of mediocrity and pan for gold. Apparently, unless I can prove to you that it is statistically impossible to find gold in that stream, I can not convince you that going where the gold is more abundant is the best idea. We are at an impasse.
I see no impasse. But first, the metric is NFL draft. Not just Miami's. No team has a good history of drafting QBs

It seems to me most of this debate revolves around gambling risk. Some want to give up all '19 picks. Some are willing to give up '19, '20, '21 R1 picks. Like you, I want a top QB. Like you, I'm willing to risk draft picks. We seem only to disagree on how many
 

Digital

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I see no impasse. But first, the metric is NFL draft. Not just Miami's. No team has a good history of drafting QBs

It seems to me most of this debate revolves around gambling risk. Some want to give up all '19 picks. Some are willing to give up '19, '20, '21 R1 picks. Like you, I want a top QB. Like you, I'm willing to risk draft picks. We seem only to disagree on how many
You're not interested in looking at the numbers for the NFL. I'm confused. Here is how we know these things:

1. What is the percentage of QB's outside of the 1st round that have made elite status during your time frame, since Vince Young? That's a number, THAT is the statistic.
2. What is the percentage of QB's inside of the 1st round that have made elite status during your time frame, since Vince Young? That is the number you need to compare.

Until you're interested in talking about those metrics, I just don't see where we are talking about the same things. That's why I say there is an impasse. I'm not interested in cherry picking names when my argument is that the percentages clearly show that the best chances to get those guys are in the 1st round, with the best chances near the top of the 1st round. If you want to talk about your exceptions, that's cool, but I think I've made my position clear. We need to get a good QB. There is a way that shows to be better for the entire NFL, for the Dolphins, and by all of the relevant metrics. That's what I'm advocating. You want to do it another way … that's OK. But that is why I see this as an impasse.
 

BlueFin

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So, is your position that we should take a QB rd 1, sign a FA?

I don't mind taking a "flier" RD 3, for example, but not higher.

I also don't see a FA, that I care to give a fat contract, either.
Only if you scout and get a conviction on a QB round 1... I think there are 2-3 worth our pick in round 1.... but the point is scout and figure out who you like and get one at some point to take a shot at it this year... if he doesn’t show great promise try again next year!

I don’t believe in waiting 2 years...hoping you have the right pick or ammo to get there... hoping the QB’s you thought would be great 2 drafts earlier are really great...seems foolish to me.
 

Mach2

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Only if you scout and get a conviction on a QB round 1... I think there are 2-3 worth our pick in round 1.... but the point is scout and figure out who you like and get one at some point to take a shot at it this year... if he doesn’t show great promise try again next year!

I don’t believe in waiting 2 years...hoping you have the right pick or ammo to get there... hoping the QB’s you thought would be great 2 drafts earlier are really great...seems foolish to me.
I don't "WANT" to wait two years either, but I'm not a Murray fan. As he is the only one of the top picks with even a remote chance of falling to #13, I don't have much choice but to wait.

I do understand your argument though.
 

fansinceGWilson

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You're not interested in looking at the numbers for the NFL. I'm confused. Here is how we know these things:

1. What is the percentage of QB's outside of the 1st round that have made elite status during your time frame, since Vince Young? That's a number, THAT is the statistic.
2. What is the percentage of QB's inside of the 1st round that have made elite status during your time frame, since Vince Young? That is the number you need to compare.

Until you're interested in talking about those metrics, I just don't see where we are talking about the same things. That's why I say there is an impasse. I'm not interested in cherry picking names when my argument is that the percentages clearly show that the best chances to get those guys are in the 1st round, with the best chances near the top of the 1st round. If you want to talk about your exceptions, that's cool, but I think I've made my position clear. We need to get a good QB. There is a way that shows to be better for the entire NFL, for the Dolphins, and by all of the relevant metrics. That's what I'm advocating. You want to do it another way … that's OK. But that is why I see this as an impasse.
Apparently I've not made myself clear. I apologize. I DO agree with the NFL metric. I casual observer can tell a QB taken in top 5 has a better chance of being a top 10 QB than a QB taken in R1 after pick #15, and those have a better chance than those taken R2, and so on. And I get it (and agree with) the logic of taking a QB as early as possible.

My point is, too many seem to think picking a top 5 QB is a GUARANTEE Miami will get an elite or 'franchise' QB. The odds are against that. I don't know your level of risk in the attempt to get a good QB. My limits are don't move up a lot. I don't want to damage the '19, '20, '21 drafts to get the next Bortles. Some are willing to take that risk. If that is a disagreement, it's a minor one.

In any case, all those, including me, who are advocating moving up to get 'THE' QB should always end that post with 'I realize the odds are greater that pick will be average and I'm willing to risk a lot to find out.' NFL history is full of 'can't miss' QBs who missed. That is my point in all previous threads. Yes, try to get a 'real' QB.' I'm in favor. I just want to see evidence everyone is aware of the risk and is willing risk years of draft picks, knowing the odds. FH is full of 'draft X in '20 and we should be in the playoffs by '22.' No mention of 'if.' No mention of 'I hope.' It's a done deal. Get QB . . . get to playoffs. O-n-n-n-n-e more time. I want a top QB. I'm willing to take a risk and move up, knowing the odds. I encourage everyone to look at my list of top 5 QBs since 2005 and get a realistic chance of the risk. All those guys were 'can't miss.'
 

39wildman

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Apparently I've not made myself clear. I apologize. I DO agree with the NFL metric. I casual observer can tell a QB taken in top 5 has a better chance of being a top 10 QB than a QB taken in R1 after pick #15, and those have a better chance than those taken R2, and so on. And I get it (and agree with) the logic of taking a QB as early as possible.

My point is, too many seem to think picking a top 5 QB is a GUARANTEE Miami will get an elite or 'franchise' QB. The odds are against that. I don't know your level of risk in the attempt to get a good QB. My limits are don't move up a lot. I don't want to damage the '19, '20, '21 drafts to get the next Bortles. Some are willing to take that risk. If that is a disagreement, it's a minor one.

In any case, all those, including me, who are advocating moving up to get 'THE' QB should always end that post with 'I realize the odds are greater that pick will be average and I'm willing to risk a lot to find out.' NFL history is full of 'can't miss' QBs who missed. That is my point in all previous threads. Yes, try to get a 'real' QB.' I'm in favor. I just want to see evidence everyone is aware of the risk and is willing risk years of draft picks, knowing the odds. FH is full of 'draft X in '20 and we should be in the playoffs by '22.' No mention of 'if.' No mention of 'I hope.' It's a done deal. Get QB . . . get to playoffs. O-n-n-n-n-e more time. I want a top QB. I'm willing to take a risk and move up, knowing the odds. I encourage everyone to look at my list of top 5 QBs since 2005 and get a realistic chance of the risk. All those guys were 'can't miss.'
if dolphins get right qb in free agent, they can make playoff this yr. with roster they got now. front office, ross and coach must do better job. if dolphins want be better team. I cannot blame nobody except dolphins for not having a back up plan at qb. you let 9 good qb go by w out drafting none in last 3yr. now u wake up and said we need qb...when come to QB. the dolphins will find way F..K it up and draft avg OT. than watch qb they should have taken play in SB. they need draft qb this yr. if it lost season. if it don't work draft one in 2020.
 
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Digital

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Apparently I've not made myself clear. I apologize. I DO agree with the NFL metric. I casual observer can tell a QB taken in top 5 has a better chance of being a top 10 QB than a QB taken in R1 after pick #15, and those have a better chance than those taken R2, and so on. And I get it (and agree with) the logic of taking a QB as early as possible.

My point is, too many seem to think picking a top 5 QB is a GUARANTEE Miami will get an elite or 'franchise' QB. The odds are against that. I don't know your level of risk in the attempt to get a good QB. My limits are don't move up a lot. I don't want to damage the '19, '20, '21 drafts to get the next Bortles. Some are willing to take that risk. If that is a disagreement, it's a minor one.

In any case, all those, including me, who are advocating moving up to get 'THE' QB should always end that post with 'I realize the odds are greater that pick will be average and I'm willing to risk a lot to find out.' NFL history is full of 'can't miss' QBs who missed. That is my point in all previous threads. Yes, try to get a 'real' QB.' I'm in favor. I just want to see evidence everyone is aware of the risk and is willing risk years of draft picks, knowing the odds. FH is full of 'draft X in '20 and we should be in the playoffs by '22.' No mention of 'if.' No mention of 'I hope.' It's a done deal. Get QB . . . get to playoffs. O-n-n-n-n-e more time. I want a top QB. I'm willing to take a risk and move up, knowing the odds. I encourage everyone to look at my list of top 5 QBs since 2005 and get a realistic chance of the risk. All those guys were 'can't miss.'
Glad to read that. There are no guarantees, which is exactly why the Undefeated Season of the Miami Dolphins was so incredibly rare. At the moment … it is actually unique (a commonly misused word today that literally means "one of a kind").

We cannot guarantee our way back to the top. We cannot guarantee ourselves the next Dan Marino. We cannot guarantee ourselves a Super Bowl. But being so greedy we ignore the best chance to return to greatness because we refuse to take one year of suckitude is the surest way to minimize our chances of returning to greatness. I'm glad to read that we are both advocating making a concerted effort to give the Dolphins the best possible chance to return to greatness.

Cheers.
 

Mach2

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Apparently I've not made myself clear. I apologize. I DO agree with the NFL metric. I casual observer can tell a QB taken in top 5 has a better chance of being a top 10 QB than a QB taken in R1 after pick #15, and those have a better chance than those taken R2, and so on. And I get it (and agree with) the logic of taking a QB as early as possible.

My point is, too many seem to think picking a top 5 QB is a GUARANTEE Miami will get an elite or 'franchise' QB. The odds are against that. I don't know your level of risk in the attempt to get a good QB. My limits are don't move up a lot. I don't want to damage the '19, '20, '21 drafts to get the next Bortles. Some are willing to take that risk. If that is a disagreement, it's a minor one.

In any case, all those, including me, who are advocating moving up to get 'THE' QB should always end that post with 'I realize the odds are greater that pick will be average and I'm willing to risk a lot to find out.' NFL history is full of 'can't miss' QBs who missed. That is my point in all previous threads. Yes, try to get a 'real' QB.' I'm in favor. I just want to see evidence everyone is aware of the risk and is willing risk years of draft picks, knowing the odds. FH is full of 'draft X in '20 and we should be in the playoffs by '22.' No mention of 'if.' No mention of 'I hope.' It's a done deal. Get QB . . . get to playoffs. O-n-n-n-n-e more time. I want a top QB. I'm willing to take a risk and move up, knowing the odds. I encourage everyone to look at my list of top 5 QBs since 2005 and get a realistic chance of the risk. All those guys were 'can't miss.'
I looked at a list of rd1 QB picks since 2000. "Elite" (i realize that term is subjective) QBs are not a common occurrence, even for top 10 picks. That is not in dispute.

Having said that, I believe many fail because of the fact that they generally go to historically bad teams.

Taking a top QB is inherently risky, and if you can't field some semblance of a competent team around him, you are dooming him, and the team to failure.

You can't rely on a 20 yr old to be superman, lifting an entire franchise from the depths of dispair singlehandedly.

That is why I think it is not only prudent, but necessary, to address the line play on both sides of the ball thus draft, rather than going all in on a questionable QB this year.
 

Mach2

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Yeah but Trevor is two more years away
Yeah, I'm, generally, a fairly patient person, but there are too many variables to play that game, unless we were to take Murray (which I'm not in favor of), and is was a fail.
 
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