I looked at a list of rd1 QB picks since 2000. "Elite" (i realize that term is subjective) QBs are not a common occurrence, even for top 10 picks. That is not in dispute.
Having said that, I believe many fail because of the fact that they generally go to historically bad teams.
Taking a top QB is inherently risky, and if you can't field some semblance of a competent team around him, you are dooming him, and the team to failure.
You can't rely on a 20 yr old to be superman, lifting an entire franchise from the depths of dispair singlehandedly.
That is why I think it is not only prudent, but necessary, to address the line play on both sides of the ball thus draft, rather than going all in on a questionable QB this year.
I can agree. You know, however, some will find that blasphemous. "if you can't field some semblance of a competent team around him, you are dooming him" is the same as 'a QB (ANY QB) needs good players around him.' I have no real evidence, but I know of no high R1 QB drafted by a poor team who eventually went to a good team and blossomed into elite.
Looking at the picks since 2000, it's obvious 'elite' is VERY rare. Those ranked as top 10 are in a significant minority. Given that, I can't think of any 'failed' top 10 QB who I watched and thought, 'you know, he's good. He should be on a top team.'
As I've said a few (too many?) times already, I don't mind taking a risk on a QB - a CALCULATED risk. I don't want to get a QB and have no draft picks the next two years to get him support. Nor do I want to give up future draft picks, realize this year's rookie QB is NOT elite (most likely), and have no ammo to move on til 2040. I agree on building the trenches. I'd like this rebuild to place some emphasis on OL. Personally, I'd keep Tunsil, Sitton one more year, and either Kilgore or Swanson. Finding 4 average or above OLmen is tough and I don't want to be building an OL the same year ('20) I get a rookie QB.
Finally, there are too few of us who recognize the risk. Go back to that list and remember, all of them were 'get a top QB and get to the playoffs.'