ckparrothead
Premium Member
Warning, this is a long post. If you don't feel like reading, I suggest just clicking back to the main forum thread view. No biggie. I posted this elsewhere a while ago and I figured I'd post it here now just because it seems slow.
In going through some of my past writings, I uncovered a piece I wrote approximately one week after Training Camp began in 2008. I thought it was really interesting to review this and see what kinds of trends we could tell as early as a week through camp, that played out in 2008. Remember, the following in quotes was written around August 1st, 2008.
I thought it was fun reading through it again and remembering where we were one year ago. A year later, I answer myself and offer perspective on the present, using lessons of the past.
1. If you remember, a lot of folks thought Roth's move to OLB was a sign that his cut was imminent. It was a last ditch effort to make him useful, right? Wrong. I thought it was a sign of how much they liked him and sure enough, it was. But even *I* thought it would end up just a part-time duty and not a full-time duty. So what do we learn from this? IMO, position moves are not something done out of desperation with a guy they think poorly of, but oppositely a privilege for guys they think so highly of that they believe they can handle it. How might it apply to today? Ernest Wilford. Eerily reminiscent. We all assumed Wilford was all but off the roster, but then he gets moved to Tight End and suddenly it's like...wait a minute, he's not done yet. I've openly speculated that Wilford could challenge David Martin for a spot on the roster. Remember that moving a guy is not the sign of desperation that some thought it to be, but a sign that the coaches actually like a guy and have confidence in him. Another guy that made a significant position move and might be one to watch in this way is Orion Martin, who was a DE in college and is now working at ILB.
2. The other Boomer (Simon Clancy) originally brought this up as something that concerned him about Boomer Grigsby and it was a harbinger of his eventual ouster. Grigsby had experience with Miami RBs Coach James Saxon, and was "known" as a great special teams player. The lesson I learn is to be careful what players are "known" for, and watch for it to actually show up on the field. Special teams ability has to be the issue most taken for granted by us fans and message board folk, when it's probably just like any other ability for any other position. Just because you did it somewhere else, and even got acclaimed for it, doesn't mean you were actually very good at it and it doesn't mean you'll do it here. The fact that Grigsby was not even claiming a spot high on the STs depth chart to that part should have been a concern. Eventually, with no real STs value, Grigsby was cut and replaced by a straight up fullback that also had no real STs value, but who was smarter, packed a bigger punch, and could work in short yardage.
3. The consistency I think was the key observation, here. That consistency is what got him into the Pro Bowl as a rookie. He was not the strongest player against pure speed, but that issue was entirely manageable. I predicted the consistency and manageability of his weaknesses would foster trust from his QB and I think that played out exactly right. Chad Pennington trusted him implicitly. This was reflected both anecdotally, as well as in the numbers. Anecdotally, you often saw Chad scramble and float to his left side, trusting that Jake Long was taking care of his man. That was a sign of confidence. Statistically, there are a few things to offer. For one thing, his yards per attempt at 7.7 was the second highest of his career. His yards per completion at 11.4 was the highest of his career, and 2008 reversed a downward trend in both statistics. I also have tracked every team's yards before catch and yards after catch from 2000 to 2008. With the Jets, during years in which Chad played significantly, the highest yards before catch achieved on a team basis was 6.56 yards, in 2004. With Miami, that figure was 6.66 yards. Chad was pushing the ball further down the field than he had ever done in his career and this was a sign of implicit trust in his blind side protection.
4. Unfortunately, the last line was the truest. Don't trust your early returns on outside pass rushers. That was indeed the time of year when the Akbar Gbaja-Biamilas of the world look like valid NFL players. The lesson I learned from Akbar and later from Charlie is that you must trust results at this position. Adewale Ogunleye announced to the world that he was a real pass rusher when he sacked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' QBs 4 times, with something like 3 more near misses, in the first preseason game of 2002. I was at that game. In 2007, Kabeer's brother got a ton of playing time while Jason Taylor sat and rested, and he snagged 2 sacks in the four games against scrubs. Charlie Anderson snacked on the QB only once. This is a lesson we have to take to heart because we're all excited to see what guys like Cameron Wake and Erik Walden (particularly Wake) have for us. We have to view early results with a skeptical eye here. That said, I still like Charlie Anderson's story and if you remember he fought injury issues a year ago and by the second half of the year when he was healthier and more active in the rotation he did get 2.5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles as part of the rotation. I don't think we've heard the last of him, and I disagree with those that have him pegged as a cut.
5. In retrospect, Jason Ferguson's fanboy gushing about Donald Thomas was a perfect foreshadowing of the staff's eventual evaluation of him. The injuries have clearly de-railed him but the potential was there and he looked good before tearing his foot up against the Jets. He also looked good in the preseason. The Dolphins thought they had a multi-year 16 game starter, and they still think they might despite two significant injuries two years in a row, and that was pretty damn clear after several interviews with Jason Ferguson. Lesson? Listen to the players! Use your head to discern which compliments are just a player being nice, and which ones belie a player that is truly impressed. I love Sean Smith and in my Twitter-based article I praised him at Vontae Davis' expense, but one thing makes me uncomfortable with that proclamation: the reporters keep talking about Sean Smith, while the players keep talking about Vontae Davis. Listen to the players. In his Q&A today I specifically requested Omar Kelly to focus on getting players' evaluations of other players but in such a way that they're not being asked to criticize anyone...and he answered that he does do that but that most of those conversations have to stay private, and that when players are interviewed it's mostly by packs of media and so the information is controlled a little. But, he did specifically mention Brandon London in connection with those private conversations a year ago, so perhaps we ought to watch for him when the pads go on and maybe we're being a little too hard on him relative to Patrick Turner. Players have thus far been impressed with Ted Ginn, Patrick Turner and Vontae Davis. Also, Will Allen gushed about Eric Green in a radio interview (more so than the rookies) before Green turned into an ATM at the most recent Mini Camp. Something to keep an eye on.
6. The secondary was doing a great job and they did do a pretty good job and the prediction that Todd Bowles' presence would help increase interception output was right on the money, interceptions by secondary players going from 9 to 14. Now, in retrospect, part of the reason we might have been hearing about all of those interceptions had to be the crappy QBs, two of which are no longer on roster. But that didn't mean the secondary wasn't doing a good job and showing signs of better ability in snatching the ball out of the air more. A lesson for today? Well, we've been hearing some nice positives about Ted Ginn, Ronnie Brown and Anthony Armstrong getting behind the defense and catching long balls...though camp hasn't started yet. Keep in mind there has to be a flip side. The receivers are doing a nice job but also the corners and safeties are having issues defending the deep ball.
7. Jason Ferguson was indeed a bonafied NT. But again with the flip sides. I casually dismissed the fact that Samson Satele was on the receiving end of those brutal pit sessions with Ferguson. Oops. It went both ways. Beating the tar out of Samson Satele was a great sign that Ferguson was the player we hoped, but it was also a great sign that Satele was not. We will have to keep that in mind when the pads come on and camp starts.
8. Paul Soliai made plays in 2008, so the praise was well founded. And once again we're already hearing praise about him from players who say that he is the hardest to move. The issue was his weight. He had a golden opportunity to flash his stuff when Jason Ferguson could barely play against the Baltimore Ravens, but he squandered it by getting suspended during that game for continuing to miss his weight targets (or so go the rumors). Satele's battles with Soliai might have shown that things weren't all bad for Satele (who wasn't "god awful" or anything in 2008) and that things weren't all good for Soliai...but I think the plays he made when he did get in the game showed that he could still have a bright future. This year has to be the time to show the staff that. They gave him a HUGE vote of confidence by not really acquiring any pedigreed talent at NT. Something else to note. Remember Dan Gore and Julius Wilson, whenever you wonder what happens to players that come back from break to training camp and don't pass the 300 yard shuttle conditioning test.
9. Ugh. What a nightmare position to try and make heads or tails of in Mini Camps or early in Training Camp. In retrospect I was not right, Hagan's play had indeed dropped off from his superhero status during Mini Camps, to relative nobody when the pads came on in Training Camp. The signs were all there about Greg Camarillo, though. The praise from the coaches, the constant inclusion in packages...they foreshadowed things to come. And, all the hoopla surrounding Davone Bess certainly rang true. But on the other hand, the hoopla around Derek Hagan (who was called the most dominant of the receivers at various points, including by coaches) and also the praise of David Kircus (Omar Kelly's favorite)...points to this being an extremely hit-or-miss position to make early judgments, even with pads on. One thing so far that has caught my attention though is the praise by Sparano about Anthony Armstrong because the feel of it definitely patterns after things he said about Greg Camarillo. But, we'll see. Ginn, Armstrong and Turner have all drawn heavy praise and my guess is one ends up deserved, and two end up phantoms.
10. Right away the thing that stands out is my note back in point #3 about Jake Long about how plays bounced to the outside have been particularly successful. That was the case all year long. Running back did indeed look to be the strength of the team. I was trying to get at how deep it looked between Ricky, Ronnie, Jalen and Patrick Cobbs. Well, Jalen ended up not being good enough at the little things like blocking, knowing assignments and catching. There's a lesson in that. They want complete backs. Still, the position did end up really deep and was a strength of the team as Henning found ways for the three guys to all affect ball games. The thing that also stands out to me is...SO FAR, we hear nothing about Ricky Williams. There's lots of fawning over Ronnie Brown, and Patrick Cobbs is getting some soundbytes too...but Ricky's just business as usual at this point. Last year the lovefest was heavy and pungent when it came to Ricky. I hope it's not a sign that he's really just not standing out anymore. That cliff comes for all running backs over 30 years old...so we had better keep an eye on it.
11. Even at that early stage, we could see the injury prevention taking shape, and it was definitely a harbinger of things to come. I believe the stat out there was that teams averaged losing starters for 82 games in 2008, and Miami lost starters for something like 24-25 games. So far, despite Donald Thomas' injury, we're seeing some of the same. David Martin, Andy Alleman and Donald Thomas have been the three constant scratches from OTAs and Mini Camps. Greg Camarillo is doing more than we would have thought (like Ronnie before him). You don't hear a ton about nicks and scrapes.
12. I think that atmosphere definitely paid off. Players were scared to fail and they knew the eyes were on them. I'm not sure how the lesson applies to today, though. Players don't seem as tense or as scared as they once were a year ago. They feel...committed. That's the word. Committed to working hard, committed to practicing hard, committed to winning, committed to doing the things that win games and avoiding the things that lose them, committed to the coaching staff, and perhaps most notably, committed to each other. It's not the same feel, so we can't be sure if it will result in the same thing...but that's how it is.
13. Anthony Fasano did emerge as a true pass catching threat and a complete TE and this ended up being a good call. They used David Martin a lot more in two-TE sets when the real bullets started firing. I'm guessing that they figured Sean Ryan was there to be a blocking TE, and that is all he was there for, so using him in 2-TE sets as the blocking TE was simply an opportunity to show them that he could do that much...however, it allowed them to see what Anthony Fasano had to offer in the passing game and I think being given opportunities is a measure of reward for this coaching staff. Fasano ran away with it. He was one of the highest producing fantasy TEs in the NFL. I thought he particularly looked good giving defenders the old Troy Drayton treatment after the catch, bulling them up.
In going through some of my past writings, I uncovered a piece I wrote approximately one week after Training Camp began in 2008. I thought it was really interesting to review this and see what kinds of trends we could tell as early as a week through camp, that played out in 2008. Remember, the following in quotes was written around August 1st, 2008.
A Marino's Dozen Non-QB Developments said:
I thought it was fun reading through it again and remembering where we were one year ago. A year later, I answer myself and offer perspective on the present, using lessons of the past.
1. If you remember, a lot of folks thought Roth's move to OLB was a sign that his cut was imminent. It was a last ditch effort to make him useful, right? Wrong. I thought it was a sign of how much they liked him and sure enough, it was. But even *I* thought it would end up just a part-time duty and not a full-time duty. So what do we learn from this? IMO, position moves are not something done out of desperation with a guy they think poorly of, but oppositely a privilege for guys they think so highly of that they believe they can handle it. How might it apply to today? Ernest Wilford. Eerily reminiscent. We all assumed Wilford was all but off the roster, but then he gets moved to Tight End and suddenly it's like...wait a minute, he's not done yet. I've openly speculated that Wilford could challenge David Martin for a spot on the roster. Remember that moving a guy is not the sign of desperation that some thought it to be, but a sign that the coaches actually like a guy and have confidence in him. Another guy that made a significant position move and might be one to watch in this way is Orion Martin, who was a DE in college and is now working at ILB.
2. The other Boomer (Simon Clancy) originally brought this up as something that concerned him about Boomer Grigsby and it was a harbinger of his eventual ouster. Grigsby had experience with Miami RBs Coach James Saxon, and was "known" as a great special teams player. The lesson I learn is to be careful what players are "known" for, and watch for it to actually show up on the field. Special teams ability has to be the issue most taken for granted by us fans and message board folk, when it's probably just like any other ability for any other position. Just because you did it somewhere else, and even got acclaimed for it, doesn't mean you were actually very good at it and it doesn't mean you'll do it here. The fact that Grigsby was not even claiming a spot high on the STs depth chart to that part should have been a concern. Eventually, with no real STs value, Grigsby was cut and replaced by a straight up fullback that also had no real STs value, but who was smarter, packed a bigger punch, and could work in short yardage.
3. The consistency I think was the key observation, here. That consistency is what got him into the Pro Bowl as a rookie. He was not the strongest player against pure speed, but that issue was entirely manageable. I predicted the consistency and manageability of his weaknesses would foster trust from his QB and I think that played out exactly right. Chad Pennington trusted him implicitly. This was reflected both anecdotally, as well as in the numbers. Anecdotally, you often saw Chad scramble and float to his left side, trusting that Jake Long was taking care of his man. That was a sign of confidence. Statistically, there are a few things to offer. For one thing, his yards per attempt at 7.7 was the second highest of his career. His yards per completion at 11.4 was the highest of his career, and 2008 reversed a downward trend in both statistics. I also have tracked every team's yards before catch and yards after catch from 2000 to 2008. With the Jets, during years in which Chad played significantly, the highest yards before catch achieved on a team basis was 6.56 yards, in 2004. With Miami, that figure was 6.66 yards. Chad was pushing the ball further down the field than he had ever done in his career and this was a sign of implicit trust in his blind side protection.
4. Unfortunately, the last line was the truest. Don't trust your early returns on outside pass rushers. That was indeed the time of year when the Akbar Gbaja-Biamilas of the world look like valid NFL players. The lesson I learned from Akbar and later from Charlie is that you must trust results at this position. Adewale Ogunleye announced to the world that he was a real pass rusher when he sacked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' QBs 4 times, with something like 3 more near misses, in the first preseason game of 2002. I was at that game. In 2007, Kabeer's brother got a ton of playing time while Jason Taylor sat and rested, and he snagged 2 sacks in the four games against scrubs. Charlie Anderson snacked on the QB only once. This is a lesson we have to take to heart because we're all excited to see what guys like Cameron Wake and Erik Walden (particularly Wake) have for us. We have to view early results with a skeptical eye here. That said, I still like Charlie Anderson's story and if you remember he fought injury issues a year ago and by the second half of the year when he was healthier and more active in the rotation he did get 2.5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles as part of the rotation. I don't think we've heard the last of him, and I disagree with those that have him pegged as a cut.
5. In retrospect, Jason Ferguson's fanboy gushing about Donald Thomas was a perfect foreshadowing of the staff's eventual evaluation of him. The injuries have clearly de-railed him but the potential was there and he looked good before tearing his foot up against the Jets. He also looked good in the preseason. The Dolphins thought they had a multi-year 16 game starter, and they still think they might despite two significant injuries two years in a row, and that was pretty damn clear after several interviews with Jason Ferguson. Lesson? Listen to the players! Use your head to discern which compliments are just a player being nice, and which ones belie a player that is truly impressed. I love Sean Smith and in my Twitter-based article I praised him at Vontae Davis' expense, but one thing makes me uncomfortable with that proclamation: the reporters keep talking about Sean Smith, while the players keep talking about Vontae Davis. Listen to the players. In his Q&A today I specifically requested Omar Kelly to focus on getting players' evaluations of other players but in such a way that they're not being asked to criticize anyone...and he answered that he does do that but that most of those conversations have to stay private, and that when players are interviewed it's mostly by packs of media and so the information is controlled a little. But, he did specifically mention Brandon London in connection with those private conversations a year ago, so perhaps we ought to watch for him when the pads go on and maybe we're being a little too hard on him relative to Patrick Turner. Players have thus far been impressed with Ted Ginn, Patrick Turner and Vontae Davis. Also, Will Allen gushed about Eric Green in a radio interview (more so than the rookies) before Green turned into an ATM at the most recent Mini Camp. Something to keep an eye on.
6. The secondary was doing a great job and they did do a pretty good job and the prediction that Todd Bowles' presence would help increase interception output was right on the money, interceptions by secondary players going from 9 to 14. Now, in retrospect, part of the reason we might have been hearing about all of those interceptions had to be the crappy QBs, two of which are no longer on roster. But that didn't mean the secondary wasn't doing a good job and showing signs of better ability in snatching the ball out of the air more. A lesson for today? Well, we've been hearing some nice positives about Ted Ginn, Ronnie Brown and Anthony Armstrong getting behind the defense and catching long balls...though camp hasn't started yet. Keep in mind there has to be a flip side. The receivers are doing a nice job but also the corners and safeties are having issues defending the deep ball.
7. Jason Ferguson was indeed a bonafied NT. But again with the flip sides. I casually dismissed the fact that Samson Satele was on the receiving end of those brutal pit sessions with Ferguson. Oops. It went both ways. Beating the tar out of Samson Satele was a great sign that Ferguson was the player we hoped, but it was also a great sign that Satele was not. We will have to keep that in mind when the pads come on and camp starts.
8. Paul Soliai made plays in 2008, so the praise was well founded. And once again we're already hearing praise about him from players who say that he is the hardest to move. The issue was his weight. He had a golden opportunity to flash his stuff when Jason Ferguson could barely play against the Baltimore Ravens, but he squandered it by getting suspended during that game for continuing to miss his weight targets (or so go the rumors). Satele's battles with Soliai might have shown that things weren't all bad for Satele (who wasn't "god awful" or anything in 2008) and that things weren't all good for Soliai...but I think the plays he made when he did get in the game showed that he could still have a bright future. This year has to be the time to show the staff that. They gave him a HUGE vote of confidence by not really acquiring any pedigreed talent at NT. Something else to note. Remember Dan Gore and Julius Wilson, whenever you wonder what happens to players that come back from break to training camp and don't pass the 300 yard shuttle conditioning test.
9. Ugh. What a nightmare position to try and make heads or tails of in Mini Camps or early in Training Camp. In retrospect I was not right, Hagan's play had indeed dropped off from his superhero status during Mini Camps, to relative nobody when the pads came on in Training Camp. The signs were all there about Greg Camarillo, though. The praise from the coaches, the constant inclusion in packages...they foreshadowed things to come. And, all the hoopla surrounding Davone Bess certainly rang true. But on the other hand, the hoopla around Derek Hagan (who was called the most dominant of the receivers at various points, including by coaches) and also the praise of David Kircus (Omar Kelly's favorite)...points to this being an extremely hit-or-miss position to make early judgments, even with pads on. One thing so far that has caught my attention though is the praise by Sparano about Anthony Armstrong because the feel of it definitely patterns after things he said about Greg Camarillo. But, we'll see. Ginn, Armstrong and Turner have all drawn heavy praise and my guess is one ends up deserved, and two end up phantoms.
10. Right away the thing that stands out is my note back in point #3 about Jake Long about how plays bounced to the outside have been particularly successful. That was the case all year long. Running back did indeed look to be the strength of the team. I was trying to get at how deep it looked between Ricky, Ronnie, Jalen and Patrick Cobbs. Well, Jalen ended up not being good enough at the little things like blocking, knowing assignments and catching. There's a lesson in that. They want complete backs. Still, the position did end up really deep and was a strength of the team as Henning found ways for the three guys to all affect ball games. The thing that also stands out to me is...SO FAR, we hear nothing about Ricky Williams. There's lots of fawning over Ronnie Brown, and Patrick Cobbs is getting some soundbytes too...but Ricky's just business as usual at this point. Last year the lovefest was heavy and pungent when it came to Ricky. I hope it's not a sign that he's really just not standing out anymore. That cliff comes for all running backs over 30 years old...so we had better keep an eye on it.
11. Even at that early stage, we could see the injury prevention taking shape, and it was definitely a harbinger of things to come. I believe the stat out there was that teams averaged losing starters for 82 games in 2008, and Miami lost starters for something like 24-25 games. So far, despite Donald Thomas' injury, we're seeing some of the same. David Martin, Andy Alleman and Donald Thomas have been the three constant scratches from OTAs and Mini Camps. Greg Camarillo is doing more than we would have thought (like Ronnie before him). You don't hear a ton about nicks and scrapes.
12. I think that atmosphere definitely paid off. Players were scared to fail and they knew the eyes were on them. I'm not sure how the lesson applies to today, though. Players don't seem as tense or as scared as they once were a year ago. They feel...committed. That's the word. Committed to working hard, committed to practicing hard, committed to winning, committed to doing the things that win games and avoiding the things that lose them, committed to the coaching staff, and perhaps most notably, committed to each other. It's not the same feel, so we can't be sure if it will result in the same thing...but that's how it is.
13. Anthony Fasano did emerge as a true pass catching threat and a complete TE and this ended up being a good call. They used David Martin a lot more in two-TE sets when the real bullets started firing. I'm guessing that they figured Sean Ryan was there to be a blocking TE, and that is all he was there for, so using him in 2-TE sets as the blocking TE was simply an opportunity to show them that he could do that much...however, it allowed them to see what Anthony Fasano had to offer in the passing game and I think being given opportunities is a measure of reward for this coaching staff. Fasano ran away with it. He was one of the highest producing fantasy TEs in the NFL. I thought he particularly looked good giving defenders the old Troy Drayton treatment after the catch, bulling them up.
