Team building theory 2021 edition. | Page 9 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Team building theory 2021 edition.

What do you do with #3 if no trade down available?

  • QB

    Votes: 9 6.6%
  • WR

    Votes: 62 45.3%
  • T

    Votes: 66 48.2%

  • Total voters
    137

TraderJoe

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I read an article, that I cannot find now, which said that Slater from Northwestern is also a target of Cincinnati so he might push some WRs down the board too. I was a bit skeptical because I thought Cosmi was generally considered the second best OT this draft.
It’s odd the love that Slater has received of late. Most everything I read says he most likely won’t even play Tackle and will have to move inside. Just to be clear his ability to play up and down the line increases his value but it still suggests he is not a pure tackle.

In my opinion there is the gap the size of the Grand Canyon between Sewell and Slater but to be fair I have only watched one of Slater and multiple of Sewell.
 

NBP81

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Are you really paying a huge bounty, though? And, what's too much to invest in the most important position?

If Tua plays like a Top 10 QB in 2021, and Miami wants to flip Fields/Wilson for picks before the 2022 Draft, do you think their value will be less than it would be in a trade down in 2021? In an absolute sense, you obviously have 1 less year on a rookie deal, but I doubt it affects their trade stock much - especially because Fields/Wilson will have had a year of development under the same staff that helped Tua develop into a Top 10 QB.

If Tua doesn’t look like a Top 10 QB in 2021, wouldn't you like to have another blue-chip option ready to compete in 2022? Would there be anything you'd rather have (for Miami lol) in that moment?

I have Waddle in the same tier as those two, but, yeah, there's a gap between the top guys and the next group. It's a sacrifice, but it's a lesser sacrifice imo.
Its not that I think 2 top 5 picks is too much to invest on the QB position, if you remember, I'd have had no problem the Fins using all their 1st round picks last year to trade up for Tua. I just think that once that part is settled, the next order of business is building an offense.

I often like to work with extremes as a sanity check for the sake of evaluating a strategy. This often, at the very least gives you a direction. Lets say the Fins do go QB with #3, both QBs end up playing in 2021 and the Fins, for whatever reason get to pick in the top 5 once again in 2022. Are you still picking a QB there? and why?

The fact the Fins would pick their 2nd QB so high only makes getting the value back so much harder IMO... The only way you're getting better value is if you're getting the #1 or #2 relatively... I dont see how teams with either of those picks would rather trade for the Fins backup instead of picking the top QB prospects in the draft.... Its possible but highly unlikely imo.

OTOH, if the Fins picked a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round... Then they're much more likely to gain value in a trade, down the road. I really think using a top 5 pick on QB in back to back years is counter productive. You make solid points but you sacrifice a **** load of value because in the end, one guy gets to sit 100% of the time and you're relying on other teams perception of you backup QB for getting any sort of value back...

This is the kind of discusion I was hoping for with this thread. Was about time we disagreed on something! lol!
 

Awsi Dooger

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Aside from all that, I don't think it's particularly close. Both Fields and Wilson are more physically talented than Tua, and they both do some things better. You draft either and let them sit and learn in 2021 (like Miami should have done with Tua), and you let them really compete for the starting job in 2022. If Tua is playing like a Top 10 QB in 2021, you can trade Fields/Wilson before the 2022 Draft and collect a boatload of picks. If Tua is playing good/not great, you see if Fields/Wilson can be great. If Tua plays mediocre or worse, you have a talented QB ready to upgrade the most important position in team sports. People use value in the abstract, but it has real consequences.

The people who want Sewell say that they can get a WR who isn't significantly worse than Smith/Chase at 18; the people who want Smith/Chase say that they can get an OT who isn't significantly worse than Sewell at 18. They're both right! No one - in their right mind - is saying you can get a QB prospect comparable to Fields/Wilson at 18. Miami is in the extremely privileged position to take another swing at the golden goose - all while having the resources to build a loaded team around its QB. The rich get richer because they can leverage their assets. Miami is in position to do just that.
You hit on the ironic aspect that I was planning to spotlight: This decision might be completely different if Flores hadn't forced Tua into action. I didn't care if he played at all. Now that he has played -- prematurely -- we have a significant body of work that may not be fully representative of Tua two years removed and with a full offseason to condition and strengthen.

I went with quarterback. Basic reason: Top 10 quarterback level isn't really all that great. j-off-her-doll said if Tua is playing like a Top 10 quarterback, then you can trade the other. But a Top 10 quarterback very possibly if not probably is already bounced from the playoffs right now.

Is that the level we are seeking? The tank job and everything else? I'd have to take another swing at someone who has physical ability toward not only greater opportunity of Top 10 but considerably higher within that Top 10. That Browns/Steelers game tonight was finally representative of how playoff games in this era unfold. You're very likely going to need to win at least one of those games.

One early option I'm glad is not available is defensive line. That is too much an early sucker move in this era, IMO. Chase Young last night looked exactly like the college semifinal against Clemson last year. Tons of commentator hype. Not much going on. You can see why his high school 40 and vertical numbers were so mediocre. Very good player but simply not explosive enough around the edge. Wiry active bull rush is his strength. That's easily congestable at playoff time at this level. Likewise tonight Cris Collinsworth into the fourth quarter made the point that Pittsburgh's hyped defensive front hadn't received one mention from Al Michaels all night.

Offensive tackle is another matter, if Sewell indeed tests as elite athlete and continues to be viewed as a dominant run blocker. That type of player really boosts margin for error these days. For example, so many pivotal late possessions come down to 3rd and 2. Keep or punt changes the entire dynamic of the end of the game. There are many teams in which the run can be all but ignored since they aren't strong or confident enough up front. It will be shotgun then forced throw. A guy like Sewell explodes the permutations because every type of formation and play call is available with run fully respected. Top 10 quarterback has a chance to hang with his superiors.

I'm still not thrilled with linemen very early. Grudgingly concede that ultra elite offensive tackles are the exception. BTW, Anthony Munoz lived not far from me my first semester at USC. Really cool guy. I was in Century Apartments and he was one complex over along with many other football players. Man, that guy could party. He must have had a close friend at Century because he'd be there all the time circa 10 PM to midnight. Then he'd invite us over to the party. Beer in one hand and waving us over with the other hand. Huge smile. I could make free throws even while drunk. That was my first reputation on campus. Other guys so plastered they were leaning against the pole or into the shrubs. I'd keep swishing them even while staggering around. The football players thought it was hilarious, especially a running back named John Kamana.

Also if you want to pick up 3rd and 2 it's not bad to have a running back like Gus Edwards. I can't believe he's on that contract. Career 5.2 and no years below 5.0.

Wide receiver should be one veteran and two early picks. I could certainly see the logic of a trade down to acquire a 2022 first and then sweating out where/if the receivers fall before it reaches our slot. Waddle might be able to play his way back into Chase/Smith territory. I read one interesting academic study that a key variable in wide receiver projection is percentage of career touchdowns during the final season. Both Chase and Smith score huge in that variable, each with 20.

Unlike others, I believe opting out was a positive not a negative. It gives me greater confidence in the player's big picture perspective. Once per century pandemic with complications far beyond survival rate I darn sure would have said no chance. I give high marks to Sewell, Chase and Rousseau.
 
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j-off-her-doll

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You hit on the ironic aspect that I was planning to spotlight: This decision might be completely different if Flores hadn't forced Tua into action. I didn't care if he played at all. Now that he has played -- prematurely -- we have a significant body of work that may not be fully representative of Tua two years removed and with a full offseason to condition and strengthen.

I went with quarterback. Basic reason: Top 10 quarterback level isn't really all that great. j-off-her-doll said if Tua is playing like a Top 10 quarterback, then you can trade the other. But a Top 10 quarterback very possibly if not probably is already bounced from the playoffs right now.

Is that the level we are seeking? The tank job and everything else? I'd have to take another swing at someone who has physical ability toward not only greater opportunity of Top 10 but considerably higher within that Top 10. That Browns/Steelers game tonight was finally representative of how playoff games in this era unfold. You're very likely going to need to win at least one of those games.

One early option I'm glad is not available is defensive line. That is too much an early sucker move in this era, IMO. Chase Young last night looked exactly like the college semifinal against Clemson last year. Tons of commentator hype. Not much going on. You can see why his high school 40 and vertical numbers were so mediocre. Very good player but simply not explosive enough around the edge. Wiry active bull rush is his strength. That's easily congestable at playoff time at this level. Likewise tonight Cris Collinsworth into the fourth quarter made the point that Pittsburgh's hyped defensive front hadn't received one mention from Al Michaels all night.

Offensive tackle is another matter, if Sewell indeed tests as elite athlete and continues to be viewed as a dominant run blocker. That type of player really boosts margin for error these days. For example, so many pivotal late possessions come down to 3rd and 2. Keep or punt changes the entire dynamic of the end of the game. There are many teams in which the run can be all but ignored since they aren't strong or confident enough up front. It will be shotgun then forced throw. A guy like Sewell explodes the permutations because every type of formation and play call is available with run fully respected. Top 10 quarterback has a chance to hang with his superiors.

I'm still not thrilled with linemen very early. Grudgingly concede that ultra elite offensive tackles are the exception. BTW, Anthony Munoz lived not far from me my first semester at USC. Really cool guy. I was in Century Apartments and he was one complex over along with many other football players. Man, that guy could party. He must have had a close friend at Century because he'd be there all the time circa 10 PM to midnight. Then he'd invite us over to the party. Beer in one hand and waving us over with the other hand. Huge smile. I could make free throws even while drunk. That was my first reputation on campus. Other guys so plastered they were leaning against the pole or into the shrubs. I'd keep swishing them even while staggering around. The football players thought it was hilarious, especially a running back named John Kamana.

Also if you want to pick up 3rd and 2 it's not bad to have a running back like Gus Edwards. I can't believe he's on that contract. Career 5.2 and no years below 5.0.

Wide receiver should be one veteran and two early picks. I could certainly see the logic of a trade down to acquire a 2022 first and then sweating out where/if the receivers fall before it reaches our slot. Waddle might be able to play his way back into Chase/Smith territory. I read one interesting academic study that a key variable in wide receiver projection is percentage of career touchdowns during the final season. Both Chase and Smith score huge in that variable, each with 20.

Unlike others, I believe opting out was a positive not a negative. It gives me greater confidence in the player's big picture perspective. Once per century pandemic with complications far beyond survival rate I darn sure would have said no chance. I give high marks to Sewell, Chase and Rousseau.

Agree that Top 10 isn't all that, but I was using as kind of a minimum threshold for wanting to continue with that QB. Also, Top 10 in Year 2 suggests that said QB could reasonably ascend to Top 5. I agree with you, though, that Top 10 shouldn't be any kind of ultimate goal for the position. It's not enough to make you a contender every year.

Before someone points out that Watson was 4-12 in 2020, yes, if you do everything else wrong, even a Top 5 QB can't save you.
 

isaacjunk

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The more important thing is having no weak links.
Exactly. There's an asymmetry between WR and OL, almost mirror-images. In a way each play is like a series of coin flips, with the advantage going to either receiver or DB based on talent. Same goes for OL/DL. Fundamentally, with WR, all you really need is 1 guy to get open, so it's more important to have the top guy win. With OL, you need none of your guys to get beat. Now of course GMs adjust by spending more on their top #1 CB, for instance, so you have to factor that in as well.

But esp with the pass interference rules, these days I think there is more advantage to having an elite receiver than elite LT. That's why it's so hard to shut down an offense with an elite #1 receiver, but you still see OLs with all pro tackles get owned in pass pro.
 

AvogadrosNumber

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I'd love another Qb at #3 but Grier needs to stick his neck out there and be forced to build a team maximize Tua.

Slinking year to year should not cut it anymore. Enough after 20 years.
 
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