Excellent post
@NBP81 !
TLDR (Too Long Didn't Read) is a thing for sure, but it is always enjoyable reading quality analysis like yours, so Thanks! Here's my Way Too Long post!
Long story short, we're more than 1 player away, so we should draft for value. I'm a big fan of moving up and down the draft board to get to where your needs match up nicely with value, and Grier has done both successfully as GM. People may not recall that we moved up in round 2 to snag Xavien Howard, stood pat and picked up Laremy Tunsil both because those were points where our needs met the draft value. Similarly, we needed a QB and coveted Joe Burrow, but the spot was not available, so we stood pat and picked up Tua, our second choice. So, I have faith in Grier to move around the board to find where value can be paired with need. As
@NBP81 so eloquently noted, this is harder to do now that we've filled some of our needs.
At #3 overall, there really are only two positions that merit that spot--QB and Pass Rusher--and in that order. I simply don't see an elite pass rusher in the mold of Chase Young this year, so that means the market is purely QB at #3. Trevor Lawrence is a lock at #1, but there is no consensus about who is the next best guy, with each player (Zack Wilson and Justin Fields) having their strengths and weaknesses as well as fans and critics. Sewell may be the next position of value with a high enough rating to sneak into the top 3, but I suspect all 3 will be QB's. The Jets look content to build around Sam Darnold and are likely to trade out of the #2 spot and pick up another position (like OL) later in round 1. The potential trade partners who make sense if the Jets want Sewell would be #4 Falcons, #6 Eagles, #7 Lions, #8 Panthers, #9 Broncos ... basically everyone except the #5 Bengals.
It is possible more than one team is willing to offer big value to trade up, such as 1st rounder this year plus a 1st and 2nd this year, or 1st this year and 2nd next year. But, Sewell is unlikely to last past the #5 Bengals, so if Sewell is the guy the Jets want, that only leaves the #4 Falcons as trade partners. My guess is that the Jets will field offers and take the best one, and if they miss out on Sewell they will simply draft another OL, possibly even trading back out of the Top 10 to do it. Essentially, the Jets are in the driver's seat, and our draft strategy for the #3 pick depends on what the Jets do.
We have legitimate needs at almost every position. At OL, we have Austin Jackson at LT, and no solution at RT. Jesse Davis is a solid OL all across the line, but he's getting old. Robert Hunt is big and powerful, but still raw and lacks the pass protection skills we want, so he looks more like the successor to Jesse Davis as a flex OL than the answer at RT or RG, especially with Tua being a left-handed QB. Solomon Kindley looks pretty good, but he already got hurt, and Ereck Flowers is a high-priced FA who underperformed, so we're definitely still in the market for an OG. Ted Karras overperformed his backup pay, but he may be tough to re-sign because of that. Plus, he's neither elite nor all that young, so we're probably looking to draft an OC unless someone (Deiter?) improves enough to claim the spot. Karras' calls along the OL was a big part of its success, so he'll likely be re-signed if possible. So that's really 2 to 3 OL (1 OT and 1interior C/G) we could take if value was available.
RB is a position of lesser value in today's NFL, but if the right guy were available, we might find value in it. In Round 1 only Travis Etienne looks like a late 1st value pick, but in the 2nd guys like Najee Harris might be of value. After that, probably 3rd or lower for the RB position, IMHO.
Defensively, we another pass rusher to complement Emmanuel Ogbah, so Shaq Lawson is very replaceable. Van Ginkel has shown promise, but if we can find another guy to fill the Van Noy role I suspect we'll pull the trigger. I really like Charles Snowden of Virginia. At UVa he showed he was a dominant pass rusher, long, lean, leverage, fast, relentless, smart, team player. But, he was hurt for almost the entire year, so he might slip as far down as the 3rd or 4th round, where he will be an absolute steal. He's smart, versatile, and a physical specimen--perfect for Coach Flo's defense. Great attitude and locker room guy as well. I'll be ecstatic if we add Charles Snowden. A higher round guy who I really like is Zaven Collins, whose coverage LB skills are as good as his name! Regardless, our LB corps is not complete yet, so we'll be adding a LB somewhere.
In the secondary we definitely need at least 1 more safety. I believe we'll keep our veterans and build on who we have. But, Igbinoghene was the lowest rated CB in the NFL by PFF, and regardless of whether you agree with their rankings or not, it is fair to say he struggled. I'm sure he'll be better next year, but he's a CB, so even best case scenario, we'll likely want to add competition because neither Igbinoghene nor Needham were good enough in 2020. With Rowe and McCain, we have to older safeties that have issues. Rowe can look very good ... and other times look flat out bad. McCain is a leader of the DB's and has the versatility to play all the positions ... but he's not young any more and his salary isn't cheap. I expect us to draft 1 safety in round 2 or 3 and groom him along with Brandon Jones to take over at the safety positions over the next year or two.
Along the DL, I doubt we use a high pick on anyone. Wilkins is exactly what we want. Raekwon Davis has potential. Everyone else is a role player, but this isn't a great DL class. What we need is a pass rusher who can play DE and OLB effectively in our multiple-front scheme. We'd like to get another Emmanuel Ogbah, Kyle Van Noy, or Christian Wilkins ... but this draft has either unproductive guys with athletic skills (e.g. Kwity Paye) or productive guys without elite tools (too numerous to list). So, I don't see us drafting DL until late and only then for a role player guy. We may look at the FA market if we think we can find another Ogbah type.
At the end of the day, this draft is deep at WR, so we can spend #3 on the best of the bunch--Ja'Marr Chase--or hope that one of the other good ones falls (e.g. Jalen Waddle makes it to #18, or take a chance on Justyn Ross later). There's lots of OL that right now look to be mixed in all of the top 3 rounds who could upgrade our OL, so if the final board stacks that way, we should always have an OL option wherever we pick. In the later rounds, there's plenty of OL picks worthy of those spots, because a lot of this year's OL class are guys who will go later in the draft.
At the end of the day, we need to decide whether we want to build around Tua (add WR + OL), upgrade from Tua (draft a QB), or improve the roster with BPA (move up and down the board to catch the falling stars like the Baltimore Ravens typically do). I'm confident that Grier & Co. know what they want to do already and Coach Flo is on-board with whatever that decision may be. And, I doubt that Grier tips his hand before the draft. That makes me happy.