Aside from all that, I don't think it's particularly close. Both Fields and Wilson are more physically talented than Tua, and they both do some things better. You draft either and let them sit and learn in 2021 (like Miami should have done with Tua), and you let them really compete for the starting job in 2022. If Tua is playing like a Top 10 QB in 2021, you can trade Fields/Wilson before the 2022 Draft and collect a boatload of picks. If Tua is playing good/not great, you see if Fields/Wilson can be great. If Tua plays mediocre or worse, you have a talented QB ready to upgrade the most important position in team sports. People use value in the abstract, but it has real consequences.
The people who want Sewell say that they can get a WR who isn't significantly worse than Smith/Chase at 18; the people who want Smith/Chase say that they can get an OT who isn't significantly worse than Sewell at 18. They're both right! No one - in their right mind - is saying you can get a QB prospect comparable to Fields/Wilson at 18. Miami is in the extremely privileged position to take another swing at the golden goose - all while having the resources to build a loaded team around its QB. The rich get richer because they can leverage their assets. Miami is in position to do just that.
You hit on the ironic aspect that I was planning to spotlight: This decision might be completely different if Flores hadn't forced Tua into action. I didn't care if he played at all. Now that he has played -- prematurely -- we have a significant body of work that may not be fully representative of Tua two years removed and with a full offseason to condition and strengthen.
I went with quarterback. Basic reason: Top 10 quarterback level isn't really all that great. j-off-her-doll said if Tua is playing like a Top 10 quarterback, then you can trade the other. But a Top 10 quarterback very possibly if not probably is already bounced from the playoffs right now.
Is that the level we are seeking? The tank job and everything else? I'd have to take another swing at someone who has physical ability toward not only greater opportunity of Top 10 but considerably higher within that Top 10. That Browns/Steelers game tonight was finally representative of how playoff games in this era unfold. You're very likely going to need to win at least one of those games.
One early option I'm glad is not available is defensive line. That is too much an early sucker move in this era, IMO. Chase Young last night looked exactly like the college semifinal against Clemson last year. Tons of commentator hype. Not much going on. You can see why his high school 40 and vertical numbers were so mediocre. Very good player but simply not explosive enough around the edge. Wiry active bull rush is his strength. That's easily congestable at playoff time at this level. Likewise tonight Cris Collinsworth into the fourth quarter made the point that Pittsburgh's hyped defensive front hadn't received one mention from Al Michaels all night.
Offensive tackle is another matter, if Sewell indeed tests as elite athlete and continues to be viewed as a dominant run blocker. That type of player really boosts margin for error these days. For example, so many pivotal late possessions come down to 3rd and 2. Keep or punt changes the entire dynamic of the end of the game. There are many teams in which the run can be all but ignored since they aren't strong or confident enough up front. It will be shotgun then forced throw. A guy like Sewell explodes the permutations because every type of formation and play call is available with run fully respected. Top 10 quarterback has a chance to hang with his superiors.
I'm still not thrilled with linemen very early. Grudgingly concede that ultra elite offensive tackles are the exception. BTW, Anthony Munoz lived not far from me my first semester at USC. Really cool guy. I was in Century Apartments and he was one complex over along with many other football players. Man, that guy could party. He must have had a close friend at Century because he'd be there all the time circa 10 PM to midnight. Then he'd invite us over to the party. Beer in one hand and waving us over with the other hand. Huge smile. I could make free throws even while drunk. That was my first reputation on campus. Other guys so plastered they were leaning against the pole or into the shrubs. I'd keep swishing them even while staggering around. The football players thought it was hilarious, especially a running back named John Kamana.
Also if you want to pick up 3rd and 2 it's not bad to have a running back like Gus Edwards. I can't believe he's on that contract. Career 5.2 and no years below 5.0.
Wide receiver should be one veteran and two early picks. I could certainly see the logic of a trade down to acquire a 2022 first and then sweating out where/if the receivers fall before it reaches our slot. Waddle might be able to play his way back into Chase/Smith territory. I read one interesting academic study that a key variable in wide receiver projection is percentage of career touchdowns during the final season. Both Chase and Smith score huge in that variable, each with 20.
Unlike others, I believe opting out was a positive not a negative. It gives me greater confidence in the player's big picture perspective. Once per century pandemic with complications far beyond survival rate I darn sure would have said no chance. I give high marks to Sewell, Chase and Rousseau.