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The Alex Smith Pick

KB21 said:
So, how do you expect to fill the quarterback position? Do you want to continue to rely on other teams' back up quarterbacks and late round picks that have about a tenth of a percent rate of success in becoming starters?

I would rather do that than to EVER rely on David Greene :barf:
 
BlueFin said:
Dude, I go back a lot further than Danny Marino, I watched this team go undefeated and win back to backs with another hall of fame first round QB....Bob Griese. I realize the importance of the most important position on the field, I think some of you younger fans haven't learned it yet.


i understand completely...however..i could honestly say that over the years AJ will have a better campaign that Smith would....I'm sorry, Smith would be able to do nothing more than manage a game...both smith and Rogers are NOT the next Brett Farve or anyothe great QB for that matter
 
Agent51 said:
.......and who's "new-era" coach Saban said himself that the success rate of 1st round QBs is like 30%.

See... that's the tricky thing about Saban. 90% of people see that and think that he just essentially said he's not getting a QB in the first round. What's better is that he KNOWS that 90% of people will think that. What people are failing to realize, is the success rate of 2nd, 3rd, 4th and so on round QBs.

What Saban could very well be saying in his own cryptic way that only he knows is that there's a 30% success rate in the 1st round, 2% success rate in the second, and less that 1% all rounds after that. Seems perfectly reasonable to me. He could also know that the success rate of a 1st round RB is 40%, but that the 2nd round is 40% and the 3rd round is 40%.

He could also think that the top two needs on offense are RB and QB... and that he'd rather have a 30% and 40% chance of success with his picks rather than a 1% or 2% and 40% chance of success.

*note none of these % are researched... just a hypothetical by me!
 
PhinSoldia said:
i understand completely...however..i could honestly say that over the years AJ will have a better campaign that Smith would....I'm sorry, Smith would be able to do nothing more than manage a game...both smith and Rogers are NOT the next Brett Farve or anyothe great QB for that matter

And how do you know that? You saying it makes it so?

I don't know it, but I would bet my house that Alex Smith has a far greater NFL career than AJ Feeley.
 
Shula-is-Good!! said:
Currently there are 13 QB's in the NFL starting not taken in the first round. You have guys like:

Brett Favre (2nd)
Tom Brady (6th)
Trent Green (8th)
Jake Delhomme (not even drafted)
Aaron Brooks (4th)
Matt Hasselbeck (6th)
Marc Bulger (6th)

This is not to mention all the QB's in the first round that were taken in the 20-32 range. Unless you have a stud QB you NEVER take a QB with a top pick. People say this is the toughest draft to read in years. Do you want another Akili Smith, Ryan Leaf, or Rick Mirer?

This is the number two pick. You have to get a quality player. Not a high risk. People that say you have a higher success rate in the first round forget to mention the high failure rate as well. I would rather see the Fins take the top RB, OT, DE, OLB, WR, CB, etc than a QB.

Besides, give Feeley a chance. With a RB and a better line he might be all the Fins need.

Ok, my question to you is this: WHEN would you like to go for a QB then, if not now???? After we have a much better season and are picking around 15-20?? Good luck getting Matt Leinart, the #1 pick will have ALOT of value for him next year. WHEN DO YOU TAKE THE GAMBLE??? Youre just like Wanny, you going to stick with Feeley for 5 years just like Fiedler????? People dont understand the importance of this position....
 
BlueFin said:
And how do you know that? You saying it makes it so?

I don't know it, but I would bet my house that Alex Smith has a far greater NFL career than AJ Feeley.


dont get me wrong i wouldnt at all mind Alex at Qb...but lets be real the real deal QB isnt even in this draft and thats leinhart..adn the fact of the matter is we need a back to solidify this offense...if we dont get the back in the first...barber and morency are gone early secondd...ad we are left with C4 who runs 4.6 and Gore with terrible knees
 
Shula-is-Good!! said:
Currently there are 13 QB's in the NFL starting not taken in the first round. You have guys like:

Brett Favre (2nd)
Tom Brady (6th)
Trent Green (8th)
Jake Delhomme (not even drafted)
Aaron Brooks (4th)
Matt Hasselbeck (6th)
Marc Bulger (6th)

This is not to mention all the QB's in the first round that were taken in the 20-32 range. Unless you have a stud QB you NEVER take a QB with a top pick. People say this is the toughest draft to read in years. Do you want another Akili Smith, Ryan Leaf, or Rick Mirer?

This is the number two pick. You have to get a quality player. Not a high risk. People that say you have a higher success rate in the first round forget to mention the high failure rate as well. I would rather see the Fins take the top RB, OT, DE, OLB, WR, CB, etc than a QB.

Besides, give Feeley a chance. With a RB and a better line he might be all the Fins need.


Alright... you made me do it. I didn't want to, but it looks like I'm going to have to. You can't just say that 13 QBs who are starting didn't get drafted i the first round and call that a high percentage success rate outside of the 1st round. By definition, percentage takes into account how many possible starters could have been. 13 starting QBs looks good, until you find out that there were maybe 60 qbs picked past the first to choose from.

http://www.drafthistory.com/positions/qb.html

We'll go 2002 and earlier, to giving the last 2 qb crops time to develop.

2003:
1st 3/3 starting for their team. Palmer, Leftwich, Boller.
2nd 0/0
3rd 0/2 Ragonne and Simms are backups.
4th 0/1 Seneca Wallace
5th 0/1 Pierre
6th 0/3 Bollinger, Kingsberry, Henson
7th 0/2 Hamden and Dorsey

That's a 100% starting rate in the 1st and a 0% after that.

2002:
1st: 3/3 Carr, Harington, Ramsey. Ramsey started his rookie year and will be starting again this year. Gibbs was an idiot to trade for Brunell.
2nd 0/0 none
3rd 1/1 McCown He started most of last year... debatable whether he'll start this year
4th 0/2 Garrard and Davey
5th 0/4 Fasani, Kittner, Doman, Nall
6th 0/2 O'Sullivan, Bellisari
7th 0/4 Plate, Curry, Kelly, Burford

Again, 100% 1st, this time 1 for 1 in the third, but still pathetic post 1st round.

2001:
1st 1/1 Mike Vick
2nd 1/3 Brees, Tuiasosopo, Carter I'm not counting carter... he's a backup and that doesn't look to be changing any time in the near future.
3rd 0/0 None
4th 0/3 Rosenfels, Weinke, and Palmer
5th 1/2 Feeley and McMahon I'll give Feeley the nod for now as he's current ly the favorite to start next year.
6th 0/2 Booty and Heupel
7th 0/0 None

So that again is 100% in the 1st and the very rare find in the later rounds.

2000:
1st 1/1 Pennington
2nd 0/0 None
3rd 0/2 Redman and Carmazzi
4th 0/0 None
5th 0/1 Martin
6th 2/5 Bulger and Brady, Wynn, Husak, Seider
7th 0/3 Rattay, Jackson, Hamilton Rattay didn't even manage a full season, and he's being replaced by a drafted QB this year. A 1st round QB too... imagine that!

Ahh 2000... the wonderful year in which Bulger and Brady convinced everyone that you've got to get your starting QB in the 6th round. Nevermind the 60% failure rate of the other guys. :shakeno:

1999:
1st 2/5 McNabb, Culpepper, Couch, Smith, and McNown
2nd 0/1 Shawn King
3rd 0/1 Brock Huard
4th 1/2 Brooks and Germaine
5th 0/1 Daft
6th 0/0 None
7th 0/3 Bishop, Greisen, Covington

1998:
1st 1/2 Manning and Leaf
2nd 0/1 Batch
3rd 1/2 Quinn and Griese Griese seems to be the odds on favorite to win the TB spot, did well in Denver, and did moderatley well in our joke of an offense
4th 0/0
5th 0/0
6th 1/2 Hasselbeck and Dutton
7th 0/1 Moreno

1997:
1st 0/1 Druckenmiller
2nd 1/1 Plummer
3rd 0/0
4th 0/2 Wuerffel and Barnes
5th 0/0
6th 0/2 Clements and Cherry
7th 0/5 Detmer, Graziani, Richardson, Corbin, McAda

1996:
1st 0/0
2nd 0/1 Banks
3rd 0/1 Hoying
4th 0/2 Lewis and Kannell
5th 0/0
6th 0/2 Fischer and Cawley
7th 0/2 Stark and Wachholtz

Alrighty you want any further back than that... I gave you the page.. do it yourself. Let's tally the results, shall we?

1st: 11/16 68%
2nd: 2/6 33%
3rd: 2/9 22%
4th: 1/12 .8%
5th: 1/9 1.1%
6th: 3/19 15%
7th: 0/20 0%

Even if you take out Boller and call him a bust, you've still got 10/16 which is much better than any other round. I don't know when people decided that 1st round QBs have just as much chance of failing as every other round. The odds are stacked heavily against it.
 
Now I know you're going to tell me that when a 1st round Qb busts rather than a 3rd round QB, you feel much more of a negative effect... and therefor it counts more.

If that is true, then it is also true at every position that is available in the draft. You're going to take a chance on ANY player picked in the 1st. There are no "guarenteed" picks in the NFL.
 
phinphanphrommi said:
Alright... you made me do it. I didn't want to, but it looks like I'm going to have to. You can't just say that 13 QBs who are starting didn't get drafted i the first round and call that a high percentage success rate outside of the 1st round. By definition, percentage takes into account how many possible starters could have been. 13 starting QBs looks good, until you find out that there were maybe 60 qbs picked past the first to choose from.

http://www.drafthistory.com/positions/qb.html

We'll go 2002 and earlier, to giving the last 2 qb crops time to develop.

2003:
1st 3/3 starting for their team. Palmer, Leftwich, Boller.
2nd 0/0
3rd 0/2 Ragonne and Simms are backups.
4th 0/1 Seneca Wallace
5th 0/1 Pierre
6th 0/3 Bollinger, Kingsberry, Henson
7th 0/2 Hamden and Dorsey

That's a 100% starting rate in the 1st and a 0% after that.

2002:
1st: 3/3 Carr, Harington, Ramsey. Ramsey started his rookie year and will be starting again this year. Gibbs was an idiot to trade for Brunell.
2nd 0/0 none
3rd 1/1 McCown He started most of last year... debatable whether he'll start this year
4th 0/2 Garrard and Davey
5th 0/4 Fasani, Kittner, Doman, Nall
6th 0/2 O'Sullivan, Bellisari
7th 0/4 Plate, Curry, Kelly, Burford

Again, 100% 1st, this time 1 for 1 in the third, but still pathetic post 1st round.

2001:
1st 1/1 Mike Vick
2nd 1/3 Brees, Tuiasosopo, Carter I'm not counting carter... he's a backup and that doesn't look to be changing any time in the near future.
3rd 0/0 None
4th 0/3 Rosenfels, Weinke, and Palmer
5th 1/2 Feeley and McMahon I'll give Feeley the nod for now as he's current ly the favorite to start next year.
6th 0/2 Booty and Heupel
7th 0/0 None

So that again is 100% in the 1st and the very rare find in the later rounds.

2000:
1st 1/1 Pennington
2nd 0/0 None
3rd 0/2 Redman and Carmazzi
4th 0/0 None
5th 0/1 Martin
6th 2/5 Bulger and Brady, Wynn, Husak, Seider
7th 0/3 Rattay, Jackson, Hamilton Rattay didn't even manage a full season, and he's being replaced by a drafted QB this year. A 1st round QB too... imagine that!

Ahh 2000... the wonderful year in which Bulger and Brady convinced everyone that you've got to get your starting QB in the 6th round. Nevermind the 60% failure rate of the other guys. :shakeno:

1999:
1st 2/5 McNabb, Culpepper, Couch, Smith, and McNown
2nd 0/1 Shawn King
3rd 0/1 Brock Huard
4th 1/2 Brooks and Germaine
5th 0/1 Daft
6th 0/0 None
7th 0/3 Bishop, Greisen, Covington

1998:
1st 1/2 Manning and Leaf
2nd 0/1 Batch
3rd 1/2 Quinn and Griese Griese seems to be the odds on favorite to win the TB spot, did well in Denver, and did moderatley well in our joke of an offense
4th 0/0
5th 0/0
6th 1/2 Hasselbeck and Dutton
7th 0/1 Moreno

1997:
1st 0/1 Druckenmiller
2nd 1/1 Plummer
3rd 0/0
4th 0/2 Wuerffel and Barnes
5th 0/0
6th 0/2 Clements and Cherry
7th 0/5 Detmer, Graziani, Richardson, Corbin, McAda

1996:
1st 0/0
2nd 0/1 Banks
3rd 0/1 Hoying
4th 0/2 Lewis and Kannell
5th 0/0
6th 0/2 Fischer and Cawley
7th 0/2 Stark and Wachholtz

Alrighty you want any further back than that... I gave you the page.. do it yourself. Let's tally the results, shall we?

1st: 11/16 68%
2nd: 2/6 33%
3rd: 2/9 22%
4th: 1/12 .8%
5th: 1/9 1.1%
6th: 3/19 15%
7th: 0/20 0%

Even if you take out Boller and call him a bust, you've still got 10/16 which is much better than any other round. I don't know when people decided that 1st round QBs have just as much chance of failing as every other round. The odds are stacked heavily against it.

Excellent work, 3P. :clap:
 
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