ckparrothead
Premium Member
I know everyone wants to be doom and gloom, and for good reason. We stunk.
But I thought I would take an in depth review of this game in order to see hey, what REALLY went wrong here? I FOCUSED on Daunte Culpepper...because you, me, everyone it all seemed like Daunte was having a damn hard time out there.
But this is confusing also, because when you get right down to it, Daunte completed 72% of his passes for a 7.8 ypa, 1 TD and 1 INT. That's a QB passer rating of 91.9.
The TD came way too late, he didn't give us a chance to win. That's valid. Also, he completed 8 of 12 for 93 yards and a TD on that final drive that many may consider to be a garbage drive. The Bills were not in a prevent defense of any kind, but they played knowing that Miami had less than 5 minutes to score a TD with a 2 point conversion, get an onside kick, and score another TD with another 2 point conversion.
So I took a look at his stats before that drive, and he had completed 15 of 20 passes for 157 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT. That is still 75% completion, 7.8 ypa, and a passer rating of 76.5.
It isn't that I'm saying Daunte had a great showing out there because he obviously did not. But I took a look at Daunte's negative plays...each of them, in turn...and really dissected the anatomy of a team loss.
Pseudo-Sack #1
Clearly Daunte's fault. He threw the ball with his hand, his hand went but the ball didn't...fumble...sacked by virtue of just being touched while on the ground.
Sack #2
I have a timer that I use for these things on my recorder. Out of the shotgun, it was LESS THAN TWO SECONDS (about 1.8) before L.J. Shelton had allowed Larry Triplett to come completely free and flash into Daunte's face, forcing him to scramble. I am sorry, but as an offensive line, you HAVE to do better than that. There are no excuses. It was a simple stunt maneuver, not unlike the kind they see every day in practice. Vernon Carey had swung Ryan Denney out wide to where he probably would have been able to continue maintaining the pocket around where Daunte was SUPPOSED to be setting up. However, Triplett coming free after only 1.8 seconds forced Daunte to scramble backwards and to the left, giving Carey zero chance at being able to maintain his block on Denney's outside speed rush. Denney, quite simply, outran Daunte. The fumble happened because Daunte was attempting to throw the football away. It was really his first opportunity to throw the damn ball away as well. In other words, if I were an insurance adjuster, I'd be awful tempted to put Daunte at zero liability for this sack/fumble. Vernon Carey should have controlled Denney better on the speed rush but again, the catalyst for all this was Shelton getting beaten by a defensive TACKLE within 2 seconds time.
Sack #3
Here we have a simple play-action fake on 2nd and 7 from about the Fins 20 yard line. Here's your first problem right here. Ryan Denney, rushing from the right hand side of the offensive line as the outside speed rusher (I believe it's a 7-technique) runs straight inward on the play-action COMPLETELY UNBLOCKED. He veers just a little bit inward toward Ronnie Brown but read very early in the play that it was play-action. Here is the scene at the 2.0 second mark: Daunte is running backward and to his right, just getting his head around to find that Mr. Denney is approximately 2 yards (read: 6 feet) away from him, running at him at full speed ready to rip his head off. Daunte continues his bootleg, but from here it is just plain physics. After Daunte's injury, Ryan Denney is just plain faster than him. Approximately 3.5 seconds after the snap, Denney had chased Daunte on the play-action and tripped him by the feet for Denney's third sack of the game. Who is to blame? It is very tough to say. If Vernon Carey should have taken a chip on Denney, then obviously he is to blame. However, if he was not, then clearly the coaches were to blame. Either way, this play broke into straight up physics...who runs faster? How do you blame Culpepper for this one? It is beyond me.
Third Down #2
I'm going to go ahead and include a few third downs and the interception in here. I'm just going to say this...3rd and 15 is not a makeable down in this offense. The fact that fans are disappointed when we DON'T make the 3rd and 15, is a god damn TRIBUTE to how talented of a QB we have. Not many offenses out there consider 3rd and 15 a makeable down. Shotgun, trips formation. The normal rule for a QB is 2.8 seconds. At 2.8 seconds, a QB is supposed to get rid of that ball. Why doesn't that apply here? Because this is 3rd and 15!!! If you get rid of the ball at 2.8 seconds, you didn't give the routes time enough to develop. At 2.8 seconds the pocket was still well-formed but it would not be there for much longer...Daunte had been reading the field and simply looked as if he saw nobody open. I don't have the coach's film so I don't know if there was someone open or not but clearly Daunte thought there was not. What he also saw was a hole had opened up on the right side of the line, so he went to escape the pocket, buy a few more seconds and maybe a WR would indeed be open. However, Chris Kelsay had maintained arm's length from Rex Hadnot and had good position to chase Daunte once he escaped from the pocket...so as Daunte ran out to the right he tossed it out to Ronnie. The 3rd and 15 didn't get converted. BIG EFFING SURPRISE THERE. :rolleyes2
Sack #4
Oh this one's a real winner too. We'd been driving into Buffalo territory, jamming the ball right up their DL the whole time. Daunte made a good play with his arm getting it to Booker. Now we've got a 1st and 10. Mularkey calls a play-action. You know what? That's a decent call. Don't knock it. We just jammed it right up their poop chute for a few first downs on the ground and we'd achieved some modest air success as well. The play-action should have been dangerous here. EXCEPT!!!! Oh, don't ever forget that except. Here's the anatomy here. Two wides...we've got 8 men lined up tight or in the backfield, including the FB and RB. Formation is strong to the right, Off-I with McMichael and Barnes both to the right. Pre-snap, the SLB moves out to the left side of the OL as an extra pass rusher. Chambers goes in motion toward the backfield...this is looking pretty jumbled up right here. Here's what happens. Four Bills rush...but not the four you'd think. The SLB becomes a veritable RDE, and then you've got the LDE Ryan Denney actually pulling back into coverage. Barnes is set to block, but he swings out to the right, where Ryan Denney was pulling backward. That might have been ok, because Denney needed to be covered up, since Randy Mac was pulling out for a pass pattern all the way, not set to block Denney at all. Here's the problem as I see it. Ronnie Brown ALSO stays in to block on the right hand side, leaving the left wide open for Ko Simpson on the safety blitz. On the left, Shelton is engaged with the SLB, James is engaged on a DT, and Hadnot is engaged on a double team. Because of the play-action, Ko Simpson got to blitz from the secondary for a full second or so while Daunte's back was completely turned and unable to see him. 1.5 seconds into the play, Daunte is turning around from the play-fake, and there is Ko Simpson approximately 3.5 yards from him and barreling down on him completely unblocked at a dead run. At this point, it is already TOO LATE. There was absolutely nothing Culpepper could have done. So who do you blame here? Well I'd imagine that both Darian and Ronnie shouldn't have been blocking the right side...it's obvious Ronnie never saw Ko Simpson coming on the blitz and sure as damn didn't make an attempt to block him. Sometimes play-calling is a rock-paper-scissors match. On this one, it sure as heck seemed like we called rock and they called paper.
Notes
A short two plays later and Miami is facing 2nd and 26 instead of 3rd and 15. Why? Because L.J. Shelton was called for a 5 yard illegal formation on a play in which Daunte scrambled for 6 yards. I won't do the anatomy of that scramble because, well because it wouldn't have matter anyway. I will say that at this point, Daunte seems a bit jittery. But, only at the start of the 2nd quarter and he's been sacked FOUR TIMES (one was his empty-handed throw). Who wouldn't be??? But at this point Daunte was 3 for 3 for 30 yards and I can honestly say only ONE of the FOUR sacks was his fault.
Sack #5
As I mentioned. 2nd and 26. Four-man rush....very simple. Ronnie held in to chip block, but released when it was clear nobody blitzed. Let's start with what Ronnie Brown sees, to the left side, as he stands right behind L.J. Shelton. He sees, hey, no blitzers! Sweet. Stunts? Little stunt going on over on the right side but seems well-picked-up. Shelton? He's one-on-one with Ryan Denney here and they are both squared up on each other. Alright then I'm off. Unfortunately, for L.J. Shelton, one-on-one with Ryan Denney is a MISMATCH. God help me for that being true. God help us all, actually. Here we check into the play at the 2.0 second mark. This is what we see. Denney has literally bytch slapped Shelton to his right with a rip move, and he has succeeded in gaining Shelton's inside shoulder. He's about, oh, 2.5 yards away from Daunte and already barreling down. Where are we at 2.5 seconds? Denney within arm's reach of Daunte, Daunte breaking down and trying to run for his life, unsuccessfully. Whose fault is this? Denney had L.J. Shelton beat within 1.9 seconds of the snap on a 2nd and 26. Who is at fault? Does someone want to tell me? Anyone? Hmm?
The next play was 3rd and 32. Nuff said. I'm not even going to REVIEW that, because it's ridiculous to assume that any team would have more than a 1% shot at converting it.
Notes
Now we take a little bit of a break from the sack count until the fourth quarter when it picks up again. At this point there's 13 minutes left in the 2nd quarter and Daunte Culpepper has already been sacked 5 times. How many of those were his fault, exactly? One. How many drives had the sacks STIFLED so far? Three. While the sacks have died down a bit, let's catch up on some third down and other key decisions/non-decisions.
Third Down #5
We pick up the fourth drive of the game for the Miami offense. The first three drives have been killed by sacks that were not Daunte's fault. He's now taken 5 sacks. First play of this drive Ronnie gains 11 yards and looked great. Next play he gained 1 yard and the next play after that Randy McMichael gets called for a false start. Now we're facing a 2nd and 14...two plays to gain 14 yards. Normally you have three plays to gain 10, but here we have 2 plays to get 14. How bad was the false start? Well, it backed us up to our own 8 yard line...so I'd say, pretty effing bad. Anyway on 2nd down, Shelton once again gets beaten on an outside speed rush, and with Daunte basically in his own end zone, he is forced to check down to Ronnie Brown for an easy 7 yards. That was a positive play. 3rd and 7 now and we whip out the shotgun. Oh god do I just LOVE this here. Watch as Buffalo sends a zone blitz, our OL fails to pick it up, Daunte has not one but two pit bulls biting at his feet and he's forced to get rid of the ball too early for the routes to have developed. Here's our 2.0 second check-in: Randy McMichael has been soundly beaten on the outside by Aaron Schobel, and Lee Suggs has been soundly beaten on the inside by the linebacker. Schobel is right now barreling at Daunte at full speed from the left hash mark while Daunte is on the right hash mark, and the LB is about the same distance just coming off Suggs. Check in at the 2.8 second mark. This is the QB's internal timer. What is Daunte doing? He's in the middle of his wind-up. He found Chambers open, and he's throwing the ball RIGHT AT 2.8 seconds, which is what he's supposed to do. The problem? Schobel is there at 2.8 seconds as well, and he makes contact on Daunte before he is able to finish the throw, and the ball therefore lands short of Chambers. Daunte did everything right on this play, the bottom line is our blocking allowed the hit while Daunte was throwing and that made the incompletion happen.
Interception
Ok there's not really a whole lot of explanation for this one. At this point it is OBVIOUS that the OL isn't pass protecting worth a damn. Miami had just conducted a nice looking drive to get deep into Buffalo territory. There's 1 minute left on the clock. The coaches' answer to the lack of pass protection is the moving pocket, and the shotgun. Just BEFORE this first down, Daunte rolls out to his right on a play-action that was designed to go to Randy Mac, he hits Randy Mac in the chest and Randy drops it. Here's a stat. To this point, despite the HORRENDOUS line blocking, Daunte is 11 for 13 for 96 yards. That's 84.6% completion!!! The 7.4 ypa ain't half bad either! For a QB to this point to be 11 of 13 for 96 yards, and a RB to have rushed 13 times for 68 yards, with ZERO points on the board...is criminal. So here we check in, and we have a shotgun MAX PROTECT. The Bills come in with a big time blitz. You know what? Hurray! We picked it up. Now here's the bad news. Chambers was clearly open to the left side. However, the progressions on the play started from the right side. This is Linehan's playbook, and yes, the playbook does call for reading only half the field. Daunte sees the package blitz and gets happy feet. Why? Because he's been killed all half long, and he's not going to wait and actually see the OL miss their blocks before he assumes they eventually will. He rolls right, and just throws a very confusing pass.
Half-Time Notes
Raise your hand if you felt like Daunte was performing like crap up to this point? The interception was only his SECOND mistake of the game. His first mistake was when he went to pass the ball and his hand went forward but the ball did not. Sure, the interception was a boneheaded play and it took between 3 and 7 points off the board. But you know what? I've seen Dan Marino make some damn boneheaded throws too. The key is how often you make those boneheaded decisions, and to this point Miami's OL has been so bad it was downright stifling...to the point where a guy who really only made two mistakes, looks like he's been screwing up all over the place out there. He is, at this point, 11 of 14 (78.6%), 96 yards (6.9 ypa), 0 TD, 1 INT. Not good.
So now we move into the second half and I just have to say...if the first half was time for the offense to screw the pooch by killing drives with sacks and penalties? The second half was the time for the defense and special teams to have their screw-ups.
First Touchdown of the Game
Up to this point I'd say our D was downright heroic in the first half. But so it ended on the first drive of the third quarter, when the Bills drove all the way down the field and got the TD off the back of a number of third down conversions, hard running inside, and the Will Allen pass interference. The drive consumed 5 minutes of clock, and put Buffalo ahead by two scores. Remember how Ronnie Brown had 13 first half runs and only finished the game with 15 total? This drive is the reason. Is that to say the D was bad in this game on a whole? Absolutely not. Like I said they did quite well in the first half. One TD drive does not make a bad defensive performance. But, the simple fact of the matter is it exacerbated the situation that had come about due to the offense's ineptitude.
Third Down #9
This is the drive in which Miami attempted to answer back Buffalo's long TD drive to open up the third quarter. On first down, Daunte drops back to pass and has a lot of time. He steps up and launches a nice deep one on a corner route to Chris Chambers. He overthrew him to the sidelines. Was it an accurate pass? No. Was it only Daunte's second inaccurate pass of the game, with the first one being the interception? Yes. So we meet Mr. Culpepper on 3rd and 8 (read: third and long) from the shotgun, again...and what do we see? The entire left side of the line collapsing, again. Let's do our 2.0 second check again. What's what? Well, on the four man outside rush, Schobel and the DT had just executed a successful stunt that literally opened BOTH of them up to try and murder Daunte. Where are they? The DT is about 3 yards away from Daunte on his left, with a clear lane and a full barrel-ahead speed, and Schobel is about 4 yards directly in front of Daunte with also a clear lane and full speed. Daunte is forced to break down and scramble within 2.2 seconds of the snap. Again, what's the magic number? What is 2.8 seconds, Alex. Daunte is forced to scramble left, nobody is open on the left side so he runs for positive yardage and gets stopped three yards shy of the first.
Notes
If the Buffalo TD drive was somewhat understandable, this next drive was not. Buffalo started with good field position but they pulled the same stunts, running the ball and executing safe offense, to pull all the way into FG range where they made this a TWO TOUCHDOWN ball game instead of just a two score ball game. They also took the clock down to within 4 minutes left in the third quarter. The offense has had trouble getting ANY points in the third quarter...and now all the sudden they have the daunting task of scoring two touchdowns in 19 minutes. Mularkey opens up the ensuing drive with three straight runs...our OL gets beaten back on 3rd down and bam, we've got a Three-and-Out that we didn't even let Daunte in on at all.
PUNT BLOCK.
All the sudden, the Bills get to make this a 16 point game. How? Derrick Pope was injured earlier, he was replaced in the punt formation by Justin Peelle, who misses a block on Koy Wire, and bam...Buffalo starts in field goal range. So let's review here. Miami entered halftime down 3-0 having had trouble scoring. Miami's O has a few three-and-outs, one drive characterized by yet more piss poor pass protection on third down, and the next drive characterized by three straight runs with an unsuccessful run on third down....and the game is now 16-0. From 3-0 to 16-0, that fast. From here, does it matter that the D stiffens up and keeps the Bills to just a FG? Not really.
Sack #6
Oh I bet you thought we were DONE with these, right? Nope. Down 16-0 now, with one quarter left to play, what happens? The D knows we're passing. They pin their ears back and they rush. What doesn't help matters? Another false start from Randy. Now we're 1st and 15. So we catch up with Daunte on 1st and 15...and for the first time all game, Daunte holds onto the ball too long. As always, we check the 2.0 second mark. What's what? Daunte in the pocket, and a pocket is STILL formed. We've got not one, not two, but three double teams active on the play. In the middle, we've got Hadnot and James on rookie Kyle Williams, we've also got Jacox and Carey on Triplett, and over to the right we've got McMichael and Brown on Chris Kelsay. Shelton is all alone boxing out Denney on the speed rush. Like I said, 2.0 seconds and all is well. And, at 2.8 seconds, Daunte still has not made a decision on where to go with the football. Now things have broken down. Brown's blocking duty was just a chip. He chipped on Kelsay for Randy and now he's out on a pattern. Randy can't sustain on Kelsay so by 3.0 seconds, Daunte still has not released this ball and Kelsay is barreling down on him with a free lane. Also at this point, Denney has run all the way around on the speed rush beyond the blocks of Shelton and the late double team by James, Kyle Williams has been left singled on Hadnot now and he is starting to string together his second moves. This ball should be out of Daunte's hands by now. The problem? There's nowhere to go with the football! How do I know this? Because Miami had seven blockers in max protecting for Daunte, while Buffalo only had four rushers. You do the math. That means Miami had three receivers out there being covered by seven defenders. And, not for nothing, but with seven blockers and only four rushers, the pass protection still broke down at about 3.0 seconds, which is only just a little bit longer than the internal clock that is supposed to ding in a QB's head. At this point, down 16-0 in the 4th quarter, you have to wonder if a QB doesn't flat out disregard the god damn internal clock anyway, because you can no longer afford thowaways and whatnot.
Sack #7
On 2nd and 19 the play after the Kelsay sack, Daunte makes a beautiful 13 yard play to Marty Booker to put the team in a makeable 3rd and 6 situation. You wanna see consistency? Watch that play and watch blitzers come in completely unblocked. That 2.8 second internal clock for Daunte turned into a 0.8 second internal clock as he passed the ball to Marty IMMEDIATELY on the blitz. Anyway, 3rd and 6. The Bills send in another package blitz. Why? Because we haven't been picking it up all day, duh. Miami set up a moving pocket, and so after engaging for a bit two pass rushers peel off and to the right following Daunte's eyes and dropping back into coverage (think Pittsburgh). So where are we after 2.0 seconds? Vernon Carey could not block the safety that rushed in, and the guy is diving at Daunte's feet. Ronnie Brown is singled up to the left on a pass rusher and won't be holding out long. We've got a Jacox-Hadnot double on it looks like Triplett. Keep in mind that once again we've got 7 men in to block, and only 3 men out trying to run patterns. By 2.8 seconds, the safety has already swiped at Daunte's feet forcing him to start scrambling, and the James-Shelton double on Kelsay had broken down because Shelton never really even got his hands on Kelsay. Daunte tries to scramble but there's really no lanes to do it. Who is to blame? Carey is the guy that allowed his rusher to dive straight into Daunte's feet. He's lucky that DB didn't get the sack. Either way we've got 3 receivers trying to get open against 4 defensive backs and two rushers that had peeled back toward the QB movement and dropped back into zone coverage. Here's extra credit for you. Watch the pullback replay. You see Wes Welker wide open dragging across the middle? Think twice. Those rushers I told you about that pulled out and traveled with Daunte? Those guys represent two 6'3" or 6'4" reasons why Welker was not necessarily open, from Daunte's angle. Beam a pass into the short Welker and Daunte would have been running the risk of another interception off the zone blitz.
Classic case of the camera seeing what Daunte can't see.
Third Down #12
Ugly series here. Started with about 10 minutes left...of course still down by 16-0 and having yet to score a single point the entire game, can we safely say the game was out of reach at this point? I think so. But, I digress. On first down Daunte had that ugly "I forgot the snap count" moment. I remember someone during chat saying that Daunte was "afraid to throw it deep" (which is ridiculous) and so on 1st and 15 he does throw it deep to Chambers who is one-on-one with McGee, and Chambers let McGee have the position on the ball so McGee comes up with the defense. That was still the right decision on where to go with the football. Was probably the only time all night we had a deep WR in single coverage, and it was Chambers so that's normally your money chance. On 2nd down they sent a package blitz (again, why not?) and Daunte is forced to make a decision with free rushers coming at him at about 2.2 seconds once again. He overthrows Chambers. So we meet up on 3rd and 15...again, an unmakeable down. This down was lost, BEFORE the snap...by the false start penalty on Culpepper, and the incompletes on first and second down. Quick decision had to come out because it looked like Denney was going to get the inside shoulder of James until Hadnot chipped and Denney fell. Complete to Brown on the checkdown, but not enough for the first.
Game Over
That was the last meaningful time the offense touched the ball. The next time Miami saw the ball on offense they had less than 5 minutes, down by 16 points, and they conducted a touchdown drive to save the home shutout.
Conclusions
#1. What is the #1 reason we lost? Because the OL could not sustain their blocks even 2.0 seconds on a regular basis. They allowed free rushers, they did not pick up blitzes or stunts, and they allowed the DL to harrass Daunte all day long. L.J. Shelton was terrible, and was really a main culprit on the bulk of plays. Jeno James had a bad game as well. Vernon Carey had about one miscue...but it was enough when piled on with the others. And, that was really the issue here. All the mistakes piled up on each other to create this situation. Shelton didn't do it alone, although at times it seemed like he damn well tried. We had missed reads it seemed like, we had a number of inadequate blocks by Randy McMichael, we saw a mistake by Vernon Carey, a few by Jeno James, etc. The main thing to take from it is that no player was really capable of consistently singling up on any Buffalo pass rusher. They had to rely on double teams, and even the double teams consistently wore off within 3 seconds.
#2. The calling. I initially thought that the calling was ok in this game but upon further review, you really have to take a step back for a moment and say ok, let's get this straight...Ronnie was running for over 5 yards per carry in the first half...Daunte was 11 for 14 for 96 yards and a INT at the half...and we had YET to score until like 3 minutes before the end of the game. The bare bones of it is we have talent everywhere and it's Mularkey's job to make sure we can string that all together into scoring drives. He did not, therefore, do his job. He seemed to go too streaky, constantly going three straight runs or four straight runs then a couple of straight passes. He didn't call a bunch of trick plays, but he also never found ways to fully compensate for the pressure that the Bills were putting on. Basically, the issue here is the Perry Fewell won the chess match. It was like Mike Mularkey and Perry Fewell were playing rock-paper-scissors, and every time Mularkey shot rock, Fewell shot paper. Mularkey mixed it up to scissors, and Fewell calls rock, etc. Seemed almost like just good luck at times, but give Fewell credit. Mularkey's play calling didn't strike me as particularly bad, but it was bad in the sense that he allowed Fewell's calling to be better than his.
#3. Daunte. I literally checked the 2.8 second meter on all the negative plays, to see if Daunte's internal clock was off in this game, and it really was not. There was only ONE occasion when the clock had struck 2.8 and Daunte had yet to make a decision on where to go with the football...and as I mentioned on that play (down 16-0) Miami had three WRs going out against 7 men in coverage. Easy to see why Daunte might disregard the clock on that kind of play, looking to make every down count. Did Daunte have bad mistakes? Yeah. I counted about 4 to 6 unforced errors, granted that the line becomes blurry as to whether it was a forced or unforced error, when the OL fails to give Daunte even 2.5 seconds to decide where to go with the football. Nonetheless I considered the first fumble which led to a sack, the interception, an overthrow of Chambers on the sideline corner route, and the the false start to be definite unforced errors. There were about two more plays in which Daunte didn't throw an accurate ball but was pressured earlier than he should be. Overall he was a decent part of the problem...but the OL was WAY more of a problem. Kind of funny how the more talent you bring in at QB, the more accountability you bring in. Had this been Jay Fiedler, everyone would actually be talking about how this was a team loss and you have to give Fiedler time to throw, blah blah blah, etc...because everyone would understand that if you don't play a good team game, Fiedler's not going to do it for you. Well here we have Daunte and we expect him to do it for us whether the team is helping him or not...and so when he's not, we boo him and call for Joey Harrington to come into the game. It's really not a fair shake.
#4. Special teams. It isn't that ours was so bad. No doubt the punt block really hurt. It was just that, theirs was so good! Donnie Jones punted 6 times and downed 5 of them inside the 20, 4 of them inside the 10. That's phenomenal.
#5. The third quarter defense. Those two drives in a row where we surrendered the TD and then the FG really put the game out of reach of this offense the way they were struggling. I thought Saban unfairly singled out the D because they did play REALLY WELL overall, I thought. But the bottom line is the game did somewhat turn when the D started allowing Buffalo to chew up yardage on the ground and get that TD and then, just as importantly, the FG afterward.
OK, I'm done.
But I thought I would take an in depth review of this game in order to see hey, what REALLY went wrong here? I FOCUSED on Daunte Culpepper...because you, me, everyone it all seemed like Daunte was having a damn hard time out there.
But this is confusing also, because when you get right down to it, Daunte completed 72% of his passes for a 7.8 ypa, 1 TD and 1 INT. That's a QB passer rating of 91.9.
The TD came way too late, he didn't give us a chance to win. That's valid. Also, he completed 8 of 12 for 93 yards and a TD on that final drive that many may consider to be a garbage drive. The Bills were not in a prevent defense of any kind, but they played knowing that Miami had less than 5 minutes to score a TD with a 2 point conversion, get an onside kick, and score another TD with another 2 point conversion.
So I took a look at his stats before that drive, and he had completed 15 of 20 passes for 157 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT. That is still 75% completion, 7.8 ypa, and a passer rating of 76.5.
It isn't that I'm saying Daunte had a great showing out there because he obviously did not. But I took a look at Daunte's negative plays...each of them, in turn...and really dissected the anatomy of a team loss.
Pseudo-Sack #1
Clearly Daunte's fault. He threw the ball with his hand, his hand went but the ball didn't...fumble...sacked by virtue of just being touched while on the ground.
Sack #2
I have a timer that I use for these things on my recorder. Out of the shotgun, it was LESS THAN TWO SECONDS (about 1.8) before L.J. Shelton had allowed Larry Triplett to come completely free and flash into Daunte's face, forcing him to scramble. I am sorry, but as an offensive line, you HAVE to do better than that. There are no excuses. It was a simple stunt maneuver, not unlike the kind they see every day in practice. Vernon Carey had swung Ryan Denney out wide to where he probably would have been able to continue maintaining the pocket around where Daunte was SUPPOSED to be setting up. However, Triplett coming free after only 1.8 seconds forced Daunte to scramble backwards and to the left, giving Carey zero chance at being able to maintain his block on Denney's outside speed rush. Denney, quite simply, outran Daunte. The fumble happened because Daunte was attempting to throw the football away. It was really his first opportunity to throw the damn ball away as well. In other words, if I were an insurance adjuster, I'd be awful tempted to put Daunte at zero liability for this sack/fumble. Vernon Carey should have controlled Denney better on the speed rush but again, the catalyst for all this was Shelton getting beaten by a defensive TACKLE within 2 seconds time.
Sack #3
Here we have a simple play-action fake on 2nd and 7 from about the Fins 20 yard line. Here's your first problem right here. Ryan Denney, rushing from the right hand side of the offensive line as the outside speed rusher (I believe it's a 7-technique) runs straight inward on the play-action COMPLETELY UNBLOCKED. He veers just a little bit inward toward Ronnie Brown but read very early in the play that it was play-action. Here is the scene at the 2.0 second mark: Daunte is running backward and to his right, just getting his head around to find that Mr. Denney is approximately 2 yards (read: 6 feet) away from him, running at him at full speed ready to rip his head off. Daunte continues his bootleg, but from here it is just plain physics. After Daunte's injury, Ryan Denney is just plain faster than him. Approximately 3.5 seconds after the snap, Denney had chased Daunte on the play-action and tripped him by the feet for Denney's third sack of the game. Who is to blame? It is very tough to say. If Vernon Carey should have taken a chip on Denney, then obviously he is to blame. However, if he was not, then clearly the coaches were to blame. Either way, this play broke into straight up physics...who runs faster? How do you blame Culpepper for this one? It is beyond me.
Third Down #2
I'm going to go ahead and include a few third downs and the interception in here. I'm just going to say this...3rd and 15 is not a makeable down in this offense. The fact that fans are disappointed when we DON'T make the 3rd and 15, is a god damn TRIBUTE to how talented of a QB we have. Not many offenses out there consider 3rd and 15 a makeable down. Shotgun, trips formation. The normal rule for a QB is 2.8 seconds. At 2.8 seconds, a QB is supposed to get rid of that ball. Why doesn't that apply here? Because this is 3rd and 15!!! If you get rid of the ball at 2.8 seconds, you didn't give the routes time enough to develop. At 2.8 seconds the pocket was still well-formed but it would not be there for much longer...Daunte had been reading the field and simply looked as if he saw nobody open. I don't have the coach's film so I don't know if there was someone open or not but clearly Daunte thought there was not. What he also saw was a hole had opened up on the right side of the line, so he went to escape the pocket, buy a few more seconds and maybe a WR would indeed be open. However, Chris Kelsay had maintained arm's length from Rex Hadnot and had good position to chase Daunte once he escaped from the pocket...so as Daunte ran out to the right he tossed it out to Ronnie. The 3rd and 15 didn't get converted. BIG EFFING SURPRISE THERE. :rolleyes2
Sack #4
Oh this one's a real winner too. We'd been driving into Buffalo territory, jamming the ball right up their DL the whole time. Daunte made a good play with his arm getting it to Booker. Now we've got a 1st and 10. Mularkey calls a play-action. You know what? That's a decent call. Don't knock it. We just jammed it right up their poop chute for a few first downs on the ground and we'd achieved some modest air success as well. The play-action should have been dangerous here. EXCEPT!!!! Oh, don't ever forget that except. Here's the anatomy here. Two wides...we've got 8 men lined up tight or in the backfield, including the FB and RB. Formation is strong to the right, Off-I with McMichael and Barnes both to the right. Pre-snap, the SLB moves out to the left side of the OL as an extra pass rusher. Chambers goes in motion toward the backfield...this is looking pretty jumbled up right here. Here's what happens. Four Bills rush...but not the four you'd think. The SLB becomes a veritable RDE, and then you've got the LDE Ryan Denney actually pulling back into coverage. Barnes is set to block, but he swings out to the right, where Ryan Denney was pulling backward. That might have been ok, because Denney needed to be covered up, since Randy Mac was pulling out for a pass pattern all the way, not set to block Denney at all. Here's the problem as I see it. Ronnie Brown ALSO stays in to block on the right hand side, leaving the left wide open for Ko Simpson on the safety blitz. On the left, Shelton is engaged with the SLB, James is engaged on a DT, and Hadnot is engaged on a double team. Because of the play-action, Ko Simpson got to blitz from the secondary for a full second or so while Daunte's back was completely turned and unable to see him. 1.5 seconds into the play, Daunte is turning around from the play-fake, and there is Ko Simpson approximately 3.5 yards from him and barreling down on him completely unblocked at a dead run. At this point, it is already TOO LATE. There was absolutely nothing Culpepper could have done. So who do you blame here? Well I'd imagine that both Darian and Ronnie shouldn't have been blocking the right side...it's obvious Ronnie never saw Ko Simpson coming on the blitz and sure as damn didn't make an attempt to block him. Sometimes play-calling is a rock-paper-scissors match. On this one, it sure as heck seemed like we called rock and they called paper.
Notes
A short two plays later and Miami is facing 2nd and 26 instead of 3rd and 15. Why? Because L.J. Shelton was called for a 5 yard illegal formation on a play in which Daunte scrambled for 6 yards. I won't do the anatomy of that scramble because, well because it wouldn't have matter anyway. I will say that at this point, Daunte seems a bit jittery. But, only at the start of the 2nd quarter and he's been sacked FOUR TIMES (one was his empty-handed throw). Who wouldn't be??? But at this point Daunte was 3 for 3 for 30 yards and I can honestly say only ONE of the FOUR sacks was his fault.
Sack #5
As I mentioned. 2nd and 26. Four-man rush....very simple. Ronnie held in to chip block, but released when it was clear nobody blitzed. Let's start with what Ronnie Brown sees, to the left side, as he stands right behind L.J. Shelton. He sees, hey, no blitzers! Sweet. Stunts? Little stunt going on over on the right side but seems well-picked-up. Shelton? He's one-on-one with Ryan Denney here and they are both squared up on each other. Alright then I'm off. Unfortunately, for L.J. Shelton, one-on-one with Ryan Denney is a MISMATCH. God help me for that being true. God help us all, actually. Here we check into the play at the 2.0 second mark. This is what we see. Denney has literally bytch slapped Shelton to his right with a rip move, and he has succeeded in gaining Shelton's inside shoulder. He's about, oh, 2.5 yards away from Daunte and already barreling down. Where are we at 2.5 seconds? Denney within arm's reach of Daunte, Daunte breaking down and trying to run for his life, unsuccessfully. Whose fault is this? Denney had L.J. Shelton beat within 1.9 seconds of the snap on a 2nd and 26. Who is at fault? Does someone want to tell me? Anyone? Hmm?
The next play was 3rd and 32. Nuff said. I'm not even going to REVIEW that, because it's ridiculous to assume that any team would have more than a 1% shot at converting it.
Notes
Now we take a little bit of a break from the sack count until the fourth quarter when it picks up again. At this point there's 13 minutes left in the 2nd quarter and Daunte Culpepper has already been sacked 5 times. How many of those were his fault, exactly? One. How many drives had the sacks STIFLED so far? Three. While the sacks have died down a bit, let's catch up on some third down and other key decisions/non-decisions.
Third Down #5
We pick up the fourth drive of the game for the Miami offense. The first three drives have been killed by sacks that were not Daunte's fault. He's now taken 5 sacks. First play of this drive Ronnie gains 11 yards and looked great. Next play he gained 1 yard and the next play after that Randy McMichael gets called for a false start. Now we're facing a 2nd and 14...two plays to gain 14 yards. Normally you have three plays to gain 10, but here we have 2 plays to get 14. How bad was the false start? Well, it backed us up to our own 8 yard line...so I'd say, pretty effing bad. Anyway on 2nd down, Shelton once again gets beaten on an outside speed rush, and with Daunte basically in his own end zone, he is forced to check down to Ronnie Brown for an easy 7 yards. That was a positive play. 3rd and 7 now and we whip out the shotgun. Oh god do I just LOVE this here. Watch as Buffalo sends a zone blitz, our OL fails to pick it up, Daunte has not one but two pit bulls biting at his feet and he's forced to get rid of the ball too early for the routes to have developed. Here's our 2.0 second check-in: Randy McMichael has been soundly beaten on the outside by Aaron Schobel, and Lee Suggs has been soundly beaten on the inside by the linebacker. Schobel is right now barreling at Daunte at full speed from the left hash mark while Daunte is on the right hash mark, and the LB is about the same distance just coming off Suggs. Check in at the 2.8 second mark. This is the QB's internal timer. What is Daunte doing? He's in the middle of his wind-up. He found Chambers open, and he's throwing the ball RIGHT AT 2.8 seconds, which is what he's supposed to do. The problem? Schobel is there at 2.8 seconds as well, and he makes contact on Daunte before he is able to finish the throw, and the ball therefore lands short of Chambers. Daunte did everything right on this play, the bottom line is our blocking allowed the hit while Daunte was throwing and that made the incompletion happen.
Interception
Ok there's not really a whole lot of explanation for this one. At this point it is OBVIOUS that the OL isn't pass protecting worth a damn. Miami had just conducted a nice looking drive to get deep into Buffalo territory. There's 1 minute left on the clock. The coaches' answer to the lack of pass protection is the moving pocket, and the shotgun. Just BEFORE this first down, Daunte rolls out to his right on a play-action that was designed to go to Randy Mac, he hits Randy Mac in the chest and Randy drops it. Here's a stat. To this point, despite the HORRENDOUS line blocking, Daunte is 11 for 13 for 96 yards. That's 84.6% completion!!! The 7.4 ypa ain't half bad either! For a QB to this point to be 11 of 13 for 96 yards, and a RB to have rushed 13 times for 68 yards, with ZERO points on the board...is criminal. So here we check in, and we have a shotgun MAX PROTECT. The Bills come in with a big time blitz. You know what? Hurray! We picked it up. Now here's the bad news. Chambers was clearly open to the left side. However, the progressions on the play started from the right side. This is Linehan's playbook, and yes, the playbook does call for reading only half the field. Daunte sees the package blitz and gets happy feet. Why? Because he's been killed all half long, and he's not going to wait and actually see the OL miss their blocks before he assumes they eventually will. He rolls right, and just throws a very confusing pass.
Half-Time Notes
Raise your hand if you felt like Daunte was performing like crap up to this point? The interception was only his SECOND mistake of the game. His first mistake was when he went to pass the ball and his hand went forward but the ball did not. Sure, the interception was a boneheaded play and it took between 3 and 7 points off the board. But you know what? I've seen Dan Marino make some damn boneheaded throws too. The key is how often you make those boneheaded decisions, and to this point Miami's OL has been so bad it was downright stifling...to the point where a guy who really only made two mistakes, looks like he's been screwing up all over the place out there. He is, at this point, 11 of 14 (78.6%), 96 yards (6.9 ypa), 0 TD, 1 INT. Not good.
So now we move into the second half and I just have to say...if the first half was time for the offense to screw the pooch by killing drives with sacks and penalties? The second half was the time for the defense and special teams to have their screw-ups.
First Touchdown of the Game
Up to this point I'd say our D was downright heroic in the first half. But so it ended on the first drive of the third quarter, when the Bills drove all the way down the field and got the TD off the back of a number of third down conversions, hard running inside, and the Will Allen pass interference. The drive consumed 5 minutes of clock, and put Buffalo ahead by two scores. Remember how Ronnie Brown had 13 first half runs and only finished the game with 15 total? This drive is the reason. Is that to say the D was bad in this game on a whole? Absolutely not. Like I said they did quite well in the first half. One TD drive does not make a bad defensive performance. But, the simple fact of the matter is it exacerbated the situation that had come about due to the offense's ineptitude.
Third Down #9
This is the drive in which Miami attempted to answer back Buffalo's long TD drive to open up the third quarter. On first down, Daunte drops back to pass and has a lot of time. He steps up and launches a nice deep one on a corner route to Chris Chambers. He overthrew him to the sidelines. Was it an accurate pass? No. Was it only Daunte's second inaccurate pass of the game, with the first one being the interception? Yes. So we meet Mr. Culpepper on 3rd and 8 (read: third and long) from the shotgun, again...and what do we see? The entire left side of the line collapsing, again. Let's do our 2.0 second check again. What's what? Well, on the four man outside rush, Schobel and the DT had just executed a successful stunt that literally opened BOTH of them up to try and murder Daunte. Where are they? The DT is about 3 yards away from Daunte on his left, with a clear lane and a full barrel-ahead speed, and Schobel is about 4 yards directly in front of Daunte with also a clear lane and full speed. Daunte is forced to break down and scramble within 2.2 seconds of the snap. Again, what's the magic number? What is 2.8 seconds, Alex. Daunte is forced to scramble left, nobody is open on the left side so he runs for positive yardage and gets stopped three yards shy of the first.
Notes
If the Buffalo TD drive was somewhat understandable, this next drive was not. Buffalo started with good field position but they pulled the same stunts, running the ball and executing safe offense, to pull all the way into FG range where they made this a TWO TOUCHDOWN ball game instead of just a two score ball game. They also took the clock down to within 4 minutes left in the third quarter. The offense has had trouble getting ANY points in the third quarter...and now all the sudden they have the daunting task of scoring two touchdowns in 19 minutes. Mularkey opens up the ensuing drive with three straight runs...our OL gets beaten back on 3rd down and bam, we've got a Three-and-Out that we didn't even let Daunte in on at all.
PUNT BLOCK.
All the sudden, the Bills get to make this a 16 point game. How? Derrick Pope was injured earlier, he was replaced in the punt formation by Justin Peelle, who misses a block on Koy Wire, and bam...Buffalo starts in field goal range. So let's review here. Miami entered halftime down 3-0 having had trouble scoring. Miami's O has a few three-and-outs, one drive characterized by yet more piss poor pass protection on third down, and the next drive characterized by three straight runs with an unsuccessful run on third down....and the game is now 16-0. From 3-0 to 16-0, that fast. From here, does it matter that the D stiffens up and keeps the Bills to just a FG? Not really.
Sack #6
Oh I bet you thought we were DONE with these, right? Nope. Down 16-0 now, with one quarter left to play, what happens? The D knows we're passing. They pin their ears back and they rush. What doesn't help matters? Another false start from Randy. Now we're 1st and 15. So we catch up with Daunte on 1st and 15...and for the first time all game, Daunte holds onto the ball too long. As always, we check the 2.0 second mark. What's what? Daunte in the pocket, and a pocket is STILL formed. We've got not one, not two, but three double teams active on the play. In the middle, we've got Hadnot and James on rookie Kyle Williams, we've also got Jacox and Carey on Triplett, and over to the right we've got McMichael and Brown on Chris Kelsay. Shelton is all alone boxing out Denney on the speed rush. Like I said, 2.0 seconds and all is well. And, at 2.8 seconds, Daunte still has not made a decision on where to go with the football. Now things have broken down. Brown's blocking duty was just a chip. He chipped on Kelsay for Randy and now he's out on a pattern. Randy can't sustain on Kelsay so by 3.0 seconds, Daunte still has not released this ball and Kelsay is barreling down on him with a free lane. Also at this point, Denney has run all the way around on the speed rush beyond the blocks of Shelton and the late double team by James, Kyle Williams has been left singled on Hadnot now and he is starting to string together his second moves. This ball should be out of Daunte's hands by now. The problem? There's nowhere to go with the football! How do I know this? Because Miami had seven blockers in max protecting for Daunte, while Buffalo only had four rushers. You do the math. That means Miami had three receivers out there being covered by seven defenders. And, not for nothing, but with seven blockers and only four rushers, the pass protection still broke down at about 3.0 seconds, which is only just a little bit longer than the internal clock that is supposed to ding in a QB's head. At this point, down 16-0 in the 4th quarter, you have to wonder if a QB doesn't flat out disregard the god damn internal clock anyway, because you can no longer afford thowaways and whatnot.
Sack #7
On 2nd and 19 the play after the Kelsay sack, Daunte makes a beautiful 13 yard play to Marty Booker to put the team in a makeable 3rd and 6 situation. You wanna see consistency? Watch that play and watch blitzers come in completely unblocked. That 2.8 second internal clock for Daunte turned into a 0.8 second internal clock as he passed the ball to Marty IMMEDIATELY on the blitz. Anyway, 3rd and 6. The Bills send in another package blitz. Why? Because we haven't been picking it up all day, duh. Miami set up a moving pocket, and so after engaging for a bit two pass rushers peel off and to the right following Daunte's eyes and dropping back into coverage (think Pittsburgh). So where are we after 2.0 seconds? Vernon Carey could not block the safety that rushed in, and the guy is diving at Daunte's feet. Ronnie Brown is singled up to the left on a pass rusher and won't be holding out long. We've got a Jacox-Hadnot double on it looks like Triplett. Keep in mind that once again we've got 7 men in to block, and only 3 men out trying to run patterns. By 2.8 seconds, the safety has already swiped at Daunte's feet forcing him to start scrambling, and the James-Shelton double on Kelsay had broken down because Shelton never really even got his hands on Kelsay. Daunte tries to scramble but there's really no lanes to do it. Who is to blame? Carey is the guy that allowed his rusher to dive straight into Daunte's feet. He's lucky that DB didn't get the sack. Either way we've got 3 receivers trying to get open against 4 defensive backs and two rushers that had peeled back toward the QB movement and dropped back into zone coverage. Here's extra credit for you. Watch the pullback replay. You see Wes Welker wide open dragging across the middle? Think twice. Those rushers I told you about that pulled out and traveled with Daunte? Those guys represent two 6'3" or 6'4" reasons why Welker was not necessarily open, from Daunte's angle. Beam a pass into the short Welker and Daunte would have been running the risk of another interception off the zone blitz.
Classic case of the camera seeing what Daunte can't see.
Third Down #12
Ugly series here. Started with about 10 minutes left...of course still down by 16-0 and having yet to score a single point the entire game, can we safely say the game was out of reach at this point? I think so. But, I digress. On first down Daunte had that ugly "I forgot the snap count" moment. I remember someone during chat saying that Daunte was "afraid to throw it deep" (which is ridiculous) and so on 1st and 15 he does throw it deep to Chambers who is one-on-one with McGee, and Chambers let McGee have the position on the ball so McGee comes up with the defense. That was still the right decision on where to go with the football. Was probably the only time all night we had a deep WR in single coverage, and it was Chambers so that's normally your money chance. On 2nd down they sent a package blitz (again, why not?) and Daunte is forced to make a decision with free rushers coming at him at about 2.2 seconds once again. He overthrows Chambers. So we meet up on 3rd and 15...again, an unmakeable down. This down was lost, BEFORE the snap...by the false start penalty on Culpepper, and the incompletes on first and second down. Quick decision had to come out because it looked like Denney was going to get the inside shoulder of James until Hadnot chipped and Denney fell. Complete to Brown on the checkdown, but not enough for the first.
Game Over
That was the last meaningful time the offense touched the ball. The next time Miami saw the ball on offense they had less than 5 minutes, down by 16 points, and they conducted a touchdown drive to save the home shutout.
Conclusions
#1. What is the #1 reason we lost? Because the OL could not sustain their blocks even 2.0 seconds on a regular basis. They allowed free rushers, they did not pick up blitzes or stunts, and they allowed the DL to harrass Daunte all day long. L.J. Shelton was terrible, and was really a main culprit on the bulk of plays. Jeno James had a bad game as well. Vernon Carey had about one miscue...but it was enough when piled on with the others. And, that was really the issue here. All the mistakes piled up on each other to create this situation. Shelton didn't do it alone, although at times it seemed like he damn well tried. We had missed reads it seemed like, we had a number of inadequate blocks by Randy McMichael, we saw a mistake by Vernon Carey, a few by Jeno James, etc. The main thing to take from it is that no player was really capable of consistently singling up on any Buffalo pass rusher. They had to rely on double teams, and even the double teams consistently wore off within 3 seconds.
#2. The calling. I initially thought that the calling was ok in this game but upon further review, you really have to take a step back for a moment and say ok, let's get this straight...Ronnie was running for over 5 yards per carry in the first half...Daunte was 11 for 14 for 96 yards and a INT at the half...and we had YET to score until like 3 minutes before the end of the game. The bare bones of it is we have talent everywhere and it's Mularkey's job to make sure we can string that all together into scoring drives. He did not, therefore, do his job. He seemed to go too streaky, constantly going three straight runs or four straight runs then a couple of straight passes. He didn't call a bunch of trick plays, but he also never found ways to fully compensate for the pressure that the Bills were putting on. Basically, the issue here is the Perry Fewell won the chess match. It was like Mike Mularkey and Perry Fewell were playing rock-paper-scissors, and every time Mularkey shot rock, Fewell shot paper. Mularkey mixed it up to scissors, and Fewell calls rock, etc. Seemed almost like just good luck at times, but give Fewell credit. Mularkey's play calling didn't strike me as particularly bad, but it was bad in the sense that he allowed Fewell's calling to be better than his.
#3. Daunte. I literally checked the 2.8 second meter on all the negative plays, to see if Daunte's internal clock was off in this game, and it really was not. There was only ONE occasion when the clock had struck 2.8 and Daunte had yet to make a decision on where to go with the football...and as I mentioned on that play (down 16-0) Miami had three WRs going out against 7 men in coverage. Easy to see why Daunte might disregard the clock on that kind of play, looking to make every down count. Did Daunte have bad mistakes? Yeah. I counted about 4 to 6 unforced errors, granted that the line becomes blurry as to whether it was a forced or unforced error, when the OL fails to give Daunte even 2.5 seconds to decide where to go with the football. Nonetheless I considered the first fumble which led to a sack, the interception, an overthrow of Chambers on the sideline corner route, and the the false start to be definite unforced errors. There were about two more plays in which Daunte didn't throw an accurate ball but was pressured earlier than he should be. Overall he was a decent part of the problem...but the OL was WAY more of a problem. Kind of funny how the more talent you bring in at QB, the more accountability you bring in. Had this been Jay Fiedler, everyone would actually be talking about how this was a team loss and you have to give Fiedler time to throw, blah blah blah, etc...because everyone would understand that if you don't play a good team game, Fiedler's not going to do it for you. Well here we have Daunte and we expect him to do it for us whether the team is helping him or not...and so when he's not, we boo him and call for Joey Harrington to come into the game. It's really not a fair shake.
#4. Special teams. It isn't that ours was so bad. No doubt the punt block really hurt. It was just that, theirs was so good! Donnie Jones punted 6 times and downed 5 of them inside the 20, 4 of them inside the 10. That's phenomenal.
#5. The third quarter defense. Those two drives in a row where we surrendered the TD and then the FG really put the game out of reach of this offense the way they were struggling. I thought Saban unfairly singled out the D because they did play REALLY WELL overall, I thought. But the bottom line is the game did somewhat turn when the D started allowing Buffalo to chew up yardage on the ground and get that TD and then, just as importantly, the FG afterward.
OK, I'm done.
