The Biglead Mock Draft has us taking Smith at 3

[dan the fin]

Devonta Smith scares me a lot. You need to be EXTREMELY physical in the NFL as a WR. DBs in the NFL probably average 190lbs vs Smith at 160lbs? They say 170 but little birds are saying thats hogwash. He refused to be weighed. I dont want Smith. I'd rather have Chase.

So you are saying he won't be able to beat guys like this?
Horn 6'1 205
Wade 6'1 195
Campbell 6'2 185
Stokes 6'1 185
Stingley 6'1 195
These are just a hand full of guys he has played against and did just fine. Oh and these are the same type of guys he will have to face on Sunday as well.

As a big hockey fan Smith reminds me so much of when Chicago took Patrick Kane 1st overall. There was so much debate on who should go 1st that year the two bigger faster NHL size guy who where very good as well or the small skinny kid that was not all that fast but put up insane #'s.

To me don't over think it Smith just put up video game type#'s vs guys that will play on Sunday. Now a debate for wether you take a WR at 3 or not sure but if you WR take Smith and call it a day.

 

[KingHydra]

Im fairly certain who and what we take at 3 is all moot unless its Sewell. Mark my words. Miami will trade out of 3. In this draft with whats on the board and who wants to move up is just a Perfect storm to crush it. I cant wait for draft day.

But as far as Devonta Smith. This isnt college. You like him, I dont. I'd trade back and take a much safer pick like Chase. Lets not forget, the rumors are he is closer to 160lbs (thats why he wouldnt allow himself to be weighed).

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Im fairly certain who and what we take at 3 is all moot unless its Sewell. Mark my words. Miami will trade out of 3. In this draft with whats on the board and who wants to move up is just a Perfect storm to crush it. I cant wait for draft day.

But as far as Devonta Smith. This isnt college. You like him, I dont. I'd trade back and take a much safer pick like Chase. Lets not forget, the rumors are he is closer to 160lbs (thats why he wouldnt allow himself to be weighed).

I agree that pick will be traded. Miami is in a perfect spot to get a lot in a trade down.

As far as wide receivers, after this year I have Smith as my #1 guy, followed closely by Chase. Would love either in Miami. With all the wide receiver talent in this draft, though, Flores and Grier may wait a little longer than fans like. It's all about supply and demand to a degree.

 

[Padrefinfan]

The more time I think about the fact that there is no combine this year makes me more and more hesitant on opt out players. Pro days are great and all, but just not enough and staged heavily. But hard pass on Smith at 3 unless the Dolphins trade down.

 

[Dan13Forever]

Devonta Smith scares me a lot. You need to be EXTREMELY physical in the NFL as a WR. DBs in the NFL probably average 190lbs vs Smith at 160lbs? They say 170 but little birds are saying thats hogwash. He refused to be weighed. I dont want Smith. I'd rather have Chase.

He played against the toughest , top teams in SEC. And he has no injury history.

I want him to scretch the field, take the top off, and in gadget plays like Hills. Chase is more like DVP, and we already have a similar one in Williams.

 

[KingHydra]

He played against the toughest , top teams in SEC. And he has no injury history.

I want him to scretch the field, take the top off, and in gadget plays like Hills. Chase is more like DVP, and we already have a similar one in Williams.

I dont really have an argument tbh. Just never seen a WR in the NFL that skinny. My favorite is Chase. Big, fast and bit of a bully.

 

[Dan13Forever]

I dont really have an argument tbh. Just never seen a WR in the NFL that skinny. My favorite is Chase. Big, fast and bit of a bully.

I think he is Grand with better hand and better route running. Just hope Flo doesn't put him in return duty. Lot of coaches like to put rookie rb and wr to return. Hope it will not be the case.

 

[jimthefin]

It is not at all unreasonable to worry about Smith's frame.

It is no guarantee against him succeeding in the NFL but he will be a pretty big outlier if he does.

But the NFL game is changing and WR's do not get beat up like they used to.And the kid has always been skinny so he knows how to avoid contact and get off of press coverage.he has been doing it at every level he has played at.

I would take Chase ahead of him but I think Smith has shown so much this year that he has made it close.

 

[rafael]

I guess I just don't see it as reasonable. I posted this in another thread:

Weight and Injuries

NFL football is a violent game, and traumatic injuries are unfortunate but unavoidable. But are bigger players more likely to be hurt than their smaller peers?

www.footballoutsiders.com

This was a study that related weight and injury correlation across different positions.

"For most positions, higher weight is now associated with a higher injury rate. This provides some evidence for our hypothesis that the greater impact forces heavier players experience lead to higher injury rates.

There are two major exceptions to this trend. Heavier running backs exhibit lower injury rates than their lighter counterparts. This may be because of differences in the way heavier running backs are used. Our running back category included both halfbacks and fullbacks, so instead of an effect of weight we may simply be seeing that fullbacks or heavy halfbacks receive fewer carries and thus have fewer chances to get hurt. Supporting this hypothesis of "confounding by role" is a small negative correlation between weight and rush attempts among running backs in 2016 and 2017.

Injury rates also drop among the heaviest tight ends (271 to 290 pounds). Similar to running backs, confounding by role may be an explanation. The heaviest tight ends may be primarily blockers rather than receivers, and blocking is likely a lower-risk activity than running routes and being tackled post-reception.

The heaviest offensive linemen (more than 350 pounds) also exhibit lower injury rates than their lighter counterparts, but confounding by role is less likely to apply here. I do not have an explanation for this decline besides random chance."

They concluded:

"All else equal, if a team has a choice between a 180-pound defensive back and a 210-pounder, they may want to go for the lighter guy."

I thought this was interesting b/c it is the opposite of what I find most fans believe. Most fans seem to assume that all things being equal you should take the heavier guy. Their conclusions mirror what I have seen in every single study on this over the years. I've seen comments posted about it "being fair to be concerned" about Smith's lower weight, but it really isn't to anybody who is basing their opinion on facts.