Nice analysis. I only disagree with one small point. IMO, passer rating is not a measure solely of the QB play. It is a measure of the passing offense. Specifically, it is a measure of the passing offense efficiency. It is very much affected by the play of others on the offense and, indirectly, by the play of the defense. It is easier to be efficient when pass protection is good, the running game is working, and when you are playing with the lead.
You point remains, if the passing offense isn't clicking, the Dolphins don't win.
Also, the gist of your analysis should be obvious to anyone that understands football.