Dr. Phin
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Your argument above is nonsense because you don't have a large enough sample to be considered statistically meaningful...or don't you get that?
The Dolphins Were 94% Likely To Win...
- Thread starter Shouright
- Start date
Your argument above is nonsense because you don't have a large enough sample to be considered statistically meaningful...or don't you get that?
Oh boy. With that response i can see how you don't get it. Let me try again. X amount of teams make the playoffs when they start 3-0. The broncos and dolphins started 3-0. You think that if we could play 1 million seasons from the 3-0 staring point both the broncos and dolphins would approach x. You assume these games and teams are in a vacuum. I mean listen, if you don't get it I don't know what to tell you. It's simple simple stuff
RIP Lou Reed
I dunno. These percentages mean nothing to me. The Dolphins have a 94% chance of winning at that point? Great. Very awesome of them to blow it then.
Well I think we agree there, that it definitely sucked. :)
Those generic percentages are interesting as long as you understand they don't apply equally to every situation. For example, if Denver as a 27 point home favorite trailed Jacksonville 17-3 in the same scenario you'd have to be an utter fool to believe their win likelihood was only 6%.
Similarly, New England was roughly a 6 point favorite today. And they have an astounding home record. I never felt like a 94% favorite to cash my bet, even though I had +6.5 points, not merely a need to win the game outright.
Similarly, New England was roughly a 6 point favorite today. And they have an astounding home record. I never felt like a 94% favorite to cash my bet, even though I had +6.5 points, not merely a need to win the game outright.
Of course. But utter fools abound
94% of your threads are likely to lose.
roy_miami
2020 cant get here soon enough
You should have made this thread during the game, I would have gladly taken 10-1 odds for any amount of money.
Closer to 16 to 1
roy_miami
2020 cant get here soon enough
I know, I'm giving him a good price. In fact Shouright, the next time you have NE pegged as a 94% loser I'll give you my phone number and I'll take 10-1 odds for any amount. As a stats guy you should know this to be a bet you can't turn down if you really trust your percentages.
Vertical Limit
Active Roster
The Dolphins have never been above a 40% winning percentage in decades so that stat is bull****.
I'll take that bet the next 10 times the Patriots are 94% likely to lose in the 2nd half of a game, for $100 apiece. It may take a while to amass 10 games in which the Patriots are 94% likely to lose in the 2nd half of a game, and you may win one or two of the ten, but in the end I'll come out with a lot more money than you do.
roy_miami
2020 cant get here soon enough
I'll take that bet the next 10 times the Patriots are 94% likely to lose in the 2nd half of a game, for $100 apiece. It may take a while to amass 10 games in which the Patriots are 94% likely to lose in the 2nd half of a game, and you may win one or two of the ten, but in the end I'll come out with a lot more money than you do.
If we would have started yesterday I would already be up $1000 and free rolling on the rest.
Oh wait a minute. I thought I was getting the 10-1 odds? :unsure: