With the reports that the Dolphins offensive coordinator position is down to Gary Kubiak, Kyle Shanahan and Ben McAdoo, I'm going to go ahead and say that I think that when it's all said and done that Gary Kubiak will become the next offensive coordinator of the Miami Dolphins.
This thread is not about why I think it's going to happen -- though I'd cite Philbin's relationship to Kubiak through Mike Sherman, who was once the offensive coordinator of the Texans under Kubiak -- as well as why I think the offense is well suited to Tannehill's talents (more on this later). But in any case it's a safe bet to assume that the Dolphins will run an offense at least somewhat similar to Kubiak's given that Kyle Shanahan's offense uses the same overall philosophy (Kyle Shanahan was a quarterbacks coach under Kubiak and later his offensive coordinator).
When people talk about an offensive "system", they're generally using it as a catch all term for two things: the philosophy of an offense (in other words, what kind of offense do you want to be) and the execution of that philosophy (how are you achieving your goal of being a certain type of offense). Another way of thinking about this idea is by looking at an offense's core plays. What are the plays they run most often? What are the plays they have built off of those plays?
In Gary Kubiak's offense, two of his core plays -- I'd argue the two most core plays he uses -- are the outside zone (run), and the bootleg play action pass built off the outside zone. So I thought I would take you guys through those two plays in some detail, and then save the end for a discussion of how I think these plays specifically and Kubiak's offensive philosophy generally would affect the Dolphins, especially Ryan Tannehill.
The Outside Zone
Unlike traditional "power" offense, zone running is not about blasting a hole in a particular part of the defense. It's about using the way the defense is reacting to the run action against them by building set reads for the offensive linemen and the running back.
In practice, what it calls for is for every offensive linemen to step the same way at the snap of the ball. The play side defensive lineman are initially double teamed, while backside defenders are cut. On an outside zone, generally the running back will read from the outside in (though he might not, depending on the alignment). If the defense jumps outside, it will create a hole inside for the cut back. If the defense stays inside, the running back stays outside.
Here's a simple, easy to understand video of the initial basic concepts of the outside zone, focusing on the role of the offensive linemen:
[video=youtube;9beo32UsAq0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9beo32UsAq0[/video]
And now here's slightly spicier video featuring Alex Gibbs, the legendary former offensive line coach of the Broncos, going through cut ups of Terrel Davis and the Broncos running the outside zone. Note: while the majority of plays in this video are out of a single back set with two tight ends and no motion, Gary Kubiak will often use a tight end in motion either along the line or flexed to the fullback spot (this was often James Casey). This tight end/fullback is often tasked with blocking the backside defensive end or linebacker on a running play -- in other words, counter to the flow of the play on a run -- or he goes into the flat as a pass receiver on the play action version of this play I'll talk about later.
[video=youtube;KNa3gZfQfH0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNa3gZfQfH0[/video]
Alex Gibbs: badass.
Did you notice the action of John Elway on those plays, how he turns out and fakes the bootleg (usually halfheartedly)? Gibbs even mentions how Elway's action is freezing the free safety. This is because the simplest and best play action fake in football is the bootleg off this play.
The Outside Zone Bootleg
The play action bootleg off the outside zone is an extremely simple play that can be run in multiple different ways and out of different formations, however the basic concepts are the same. What it's trying to do is pray on defensive over pursuit of the outside zone to take advantage of backside defenders who want to chase the run. When both plays are running effectively, an offense is basically unstoppable because the backside defenders are unsure whether to chase the run or stay home for the pass and end up being able to do neither.
The goal from a route combination standpoint is to create three levels of receivers on the same side of the field (short, medium and long), giving the quarterback easily defined reads with the option to run. In Kubiak's system the routes I see the most often are:
1. A short flat route. Usually by a backside tight end who fakes a block for a few steps and then goes into the flat or a fullback who fakes like he's going to cut and goes into the flat.
2. A crosser from the opposite side of the field. Medium distance of about 15 yards.
3. A deep route. Either a stutter/go by the receiver on the "front" side of the field (the same side the quarterback is motioning to), or another receiver from the opposite side running the post.
The are other options, of course. In this particular video the "short" route is a shallow crosser and the "medium" route is a comeback.
[video=youtube;9beo32UsAq0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9beo32UsAq0[/video]
Click forward to 5:14 of this video to see the Texans run a version of the play. In this instance, the short route is a jerk route by the receiver to the opposite of the fake, the medium route is a crosser from the same side as the fake, and the deep route is a corner route by Andre Johnson (opposite the fake):
[video=youtube;QdSY6NYs9aI]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdSY6NYs9aI[/video]
What all of this means for the offense, especially Ryan Tannehill
One of the things that was lost in our offense's inability to run is that Ryan Tannehill does very well off of play action passes. In 2012, his quarterback rating was 53.8 points higher off of play action than it was on straight drop back passing, a drop from 121.5 (2nd highest in the league on play action) to 67.7. His threw for 4.3 yards more per attempt and completed almost nine percent more of his passes when faking than when not.
Despite this, we only used play action passing on 15.4% of attempts.
In 2013 the numbers evened out somewhat (partly, I think, because of our ineffective running game) but Tannehill still threw for 2.4 more yards per attempt -- among the five biggest differentials in the league -- off play action, taking his YPA to 8.7, good for 10th in the league. As you would expect, his passer rating was also substantial higher off play action, going from 76.6 (21st in the league on non play action passes) to 109.6 (8th in the league on play action passes).
Despite this, we still only attempted play action passes on 14.8% of passes, among the lowest percentages in the league.
This is nothing less than a travesty, in my view. The essence of not adapting your scheme to fit what your players do best.
The good news? Gary Kubiak loves play action passes.
In 2012 -- when the Texans had more of a normal, less injury plagued year -- Matt Schaub threw 25.7 percent of his passes off of play action, the 6th highest percentage in the league. And it's not as if the Texans did it so often that Schaub's numbers suffered. His YPA was almost two yards higher off of play action (ninth biggest differential in the league) and his quarterback rating went from 84.9 to 108.1.
The Verdict
Do I know for sure the Dolphins are about to hire Gary Kubiak? No, of course not. Do the Dolphins have major issues on the offensive line that need to be ironed out before they can effectively run any system, much less this one? Yes, they do. Does Miami's current wide receiver core fit Kubiak's philosophies? No, they really don't. Are there still concerns about how badly the Texans' season ended in 2013? Absolutely.
But I very much hope they do make this hire, and I think they will. Though I have concerns about the flexibility Kubiak's offense affords the quarterback at the line of scrimmage, I think it would be the very best thing that could happen to Ryan Tannehill. It would take advantage of his demonstrable ability on play action passing as well as his athleticism and accuracy on the run.
So let's hope this happens, Dolfans. Hopefully this all made sense (ask me if there was anything you were confused on). And thanks for reading.
This thread is not about why I think it's going to happen -- though I'd cite Philbin's relationship to Kubiak through Mike Sherman, who was once the offensive coordinator of the Texans under Kubiak -- as well as why I think the offense is well suited to Tannehill's talents (more on this later). But in any case it's a safe bet to assume that the Dolphins will run an offense at least somewhat similar to Kubiak's given that Kyle Shanahan's offense uses the same overall philosophy (Kyle Shanahan was a quarterbacks coach under Kubiak and later his offensive coordinator).
When people talk about an offensive "system", they're generally using it as a catch all term for two things: the philosophy of an offense (in other words, what kind of offense do you want to be) and the execution of that philosophy (how are you achieving your goal of being a certain type of offense). Another way of thinking about this idea is by looking at an offense's core plays. What are the plays they run most often? What are the plays they have built off of those plays?
In Gary Kubiak's offense, two of his core plays -- I'd argue the two most core plays he uses -- are the outside zone (run), and the bootleg play action pass built off the outside zone. So I thought I would take you guys through those two plays in some detail, and then save the end for a discussion of how I think these plays specifically and Kubiak's offensive philosophy generally would affect the Dolphins, especially Ryan Tannehill.
The Outside Zone
Unlike traditional "power" offense, zone running is not about blasting a hole in a particular part of the defense. It's about using the way the defense is reacting to the run action against them by building set reads for the offensive linemen and the running back.
In practice, what it calls for is for every offensive linemen to step the same way at the snap of the ball. The play side defensive lineman are initially double teamed, while backside defenders are cut. On an outside zone, generally the running back will read from the outside in (though he might not, depending on the alignment). If the defense jumps outside, it will create a hole inside for the cut back. If the defense stays inside, the running back stays outside.
Here's a simple, easy to understand video of the initial basic concepts of the outside zone, focusing on the role of the offensive linemen:
[video=youtube;9beo32UsAq0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9beo32UsAq0[/video]
And now here's slightly spicier video featuring Alex Gibbs, the legendary former offensive line coach of the Broncos, going through cut ups of Terrel Davis and the Broncos running the outside zone. Note: while the majority of plays in this video are out of a single back set with two tight ends and no motion, Gary Kubiak will often use a tight end in motion either along the line or flexed to the fullback spot (this was often James Casey). This tight end/fullback is often tasked with blocking the backside defensive end or linebacker on a running play -- in other words, counter to the flow of the play on a run -- or he goes into the flat as a pass receiver on the play action version of this play I'll talk about later.
[video=youtube;KNa3gZfQfH0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNa3gZfQfH0[/video]
Alex Gibbs: badass.
Did you notice the action of John Elway on those plays, how he turns out and fakes the bootleg (usually halfheartedly)? Gibbs even mentions how Elway's action is freezing the free safety. This is because the simplest and best play action fake in football is the bootleg off this play.
The Outside Zone Bootleg
The play action bootleg off the outside zone is an extremely simple play that can be run in multiple different ways and out of different formations, however the basic concepts are the same. What it's trying to do is pray on defensive over pursuit of the outside zone to take advantage of backside defenders who want to chase the run. When both plays are running effectively, an offense is basically unstoppable because the backside defenders are unsure whether to chase the run or stay home for the pass and end up being able to do neither.
The goal from a route combination standpoint is to create three levels of receivers on the same side of the field (short, medium and long), giving the quarterback easily defined reads with the option to run. In Kubiak's system the routes I see the most often are:
1. A short flat route. Usually by a backside tight end who fakes a block for a few steps and then goes into the flat or a fullback who fakes like he's going to cut and goes into the flat.
2. A crosser from the opposite side of the field. Medium distance of about 15 yards.
3. A deep route. Either a stutter/go by the receiver on the "front" side of the field (the same side the quarterback is motioning to), or another receiver from the opposite side running the post.
The are other options, of course. In this particular video the "short" route is a shallow crosser and the "medium" route is a comeback.
[video=youtube;9beo32UsAq0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9beo32UsAq0[/video]
Click forward to 5:14 of this video to see the Texans run a version of the play. In this instance, the short route is a jerk route by the receiver to the opposite of the fake, the medium route is a crosser from the same side as the fake, and the deep route is a corner route by Andre Johnson (opposite the fake):
[video=youtube;QdSY6NYs9aI]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdSY6NYs9aI[/video]
What all of this means for the offense, especially Ryan Tannehill
One of the things that was lost in our offense's inability to run is that Ryan Tannehill does very well off of play action passes. In 2012, his quarterback rating was 53.8 points higher off of play action than it was on straight drop back passing, a drop from 121.5 (2nd highest in the league on play action) to 67.7. His threw for 4.3 yards more per attempt and completed almost nine percent more of his passes when faking than when not.
Despite this, we only used play action passing on 15.4% of attempts.
In 2013 the numbers evened out somewhat (partly, I think, because of our ineffective running game) but Tannehill still threw for 2.4 more yards per attempt -- among the five biggest differentials in the league -- off play action, taking his YPA to 8.7, good for 10th in the league. As you would expect, his passer rating was also substantial higher off play action, going from 76.6 (21st in the league on non play action passes) to 109.6 (8th in the league on play action passes).
Despite this, we still only attempted play action passes on 14.8% of passes, among the lowest percentages in the league.
This is nothing less than a travesty, in my view. The essence of not adapting your scheme to fit what your players do best.
The good news? Gary Kubiak loves play action passes.
In 2012 -- when the Texans had more of a normal, less injury plagued year -- Matt Schaub threw 25.7 percent of his passes off of play action, the 6th highest percentage in the league. And it's not as if the Texans did it so often that Schaub's numbers suffered. His YPA was almost two yards higher off of play action (ninth biggest differential in the league) and his quarterback rating went from 84.9 to 108.1.
The Verdict
Do I know for sure the Dolphins are about to hire Gary Kubiak? No, of course not. Do the Dolphins have major issues on the offensive line that need to be ironed out before they can effectively run any system, much less this one? Yes, they do. Does Miami's current wide receiver core fit Kubiak's philosophies? No, they really don't. Are there still concerns about how badly the Texans' season ended in 2013? Absolutely.
But I very much hope they do make this hire, and I think they will. Though I have concerns about the flexibility Kubiak's offense affords the quarterback at the line of scrimmage, I think it would be the very best thing that could happen to Ryan Tannehill. It would take advantage of his demonstrable ability on play action passing as well as his athleticism and accuracy on the run.
So let's hope this happens, Dolfans. Hopefully this all made sense (ask me if there was anything you were confused on). And thanks for reading.
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