It will be great to see us draft players to improve our team, fortify our lines, add depth, and resign our own players.
The Grier Debate Is Over - Hopefully We Have The Right Guy To Fix It!
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Gsmack_42
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I can think of 2 that can manage a dozen in a couple of days.
There are people on this forum THAT STILL argue that Chris Grier is good at drafting.
We can’t change it brother. The future is so bright I got to wear shades!
gofins60
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Good point. A team can be improved quickly if they have a decent foundation because previous GMs prioritized building through the draft and believed that you win in the trenches. However, in Miami it's going to take longer because Grier's legacy is a roster full of holes, issues in the trenches, underperforming players, injury-prone players, and bad contracts. He even stated that he and McDaniel weren't worried about the o-line!
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great research.
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Don't understand the Achane reference.
MrChadRico
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Hes stating that drafting Achane should count for something.
After all the evidence and failed draft picks under Grier, I dont know what that something is, but thats what hes doing.
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It doesn't matter much now because Grier is gone, but by almost all objective measures he did draft better than most GMs.
I've did a pretty extensive statistical analysis of GM draft performance over the last 10 years around the time Grier was fired to see which guys have actually been the most successful drafters. For certain guys that I have potential interest in as a GM candidate for the Dolphins, I extended the analysis over their full careers.
There are 60 GMs in the analysis, but the screenshots below may not show all as they just show what fit on my screen when taking the image. I took draft results from Pro Football Reference and put them in a spreadsheet to be able to compare them across a variety of measures.
The measure that I think it probably the best of them is career Weighted Approximate Value/Player Year Per Average Pick Value. Weighted Approximate Value (wAV) is used to determine a relative value of all players at all positions. On its own it's far from definitive in that regard, but it's still a useful and objective metric to use. The Average Pick Value is the average value of each GM's draft slots based on the traditional JJ trade value chart. There are things one can argue about there too, but it is a commonly used and referenced measure of the value of picking in various places in the draft. This levels the playing field for GMs who have tended to pick later in the draft, i.e., with less draft capital.
Grier is 31/80 in this measure. Packers GM Gutekunst is 13/80.
Below is sorted by wAV/Pick, but I don't think that's as useful because it doesn't account for the relative value of the picks.
On this one Grier is 22nd and Gutekunst is 39th.
Below is All Pro Seasons per year drafting:
Grier is 17th. Gutekunst is off the charts as he has not drafted an All Pro.
Below is % of picks that made at least one Pro Bowl.
Grier is 19th and Gutekunst is 53rd (not shown above).
I included references to Gutekunst because Sullivan was working with him and it's the closest picture we can get to how Sullivan might have drafted, although very imperfect in that regard because we don't know how many, or which, Gutekunst picks he might have disagreed with.
I've did a pretty extensive statistical analysis of GM draft performance over the last 10 years around the time Grier was fired to see which guys have actually been the most successful drafters. For certain guys that I have potential interest in as a GM candidate for the Dolphins, I extended the analysis over their full careers.
There are 60 GMs in the analysis, but the screenshots below may not show all as they just show what fit on my screen when taking the image. I took draft results from Pro Football Reference and put them in a spreadsheet to be able to compare them across a variety of measures.
The measure that I think it probably the best of them is career Weighted Approximate Value/Player Year Per Average Pick Value. Weighted Approximate Value (wAV) is used to determine a relative value of all players at all positions. On its own it's far from definitive in that regard, but it's still a useful and objective metric to use. The Average Pick Value is the average value of each GM's draft slots based on the traditional JJ trade value chart. There are things one can argue about there too, but it is a commonly used and referenced measure of the value of picking in various places in the draft. This levels the playing field for GMs who have tended to pick later in the draft, i.e., with less draft capital.
Grier is 31/80 in this measure. Packers GM Gutekunst is 13/80.
Below is sorted by wAV/Pick, but I don't think that's as useful because it doesn't account for the relative value of the picks.
On this one Grier is 22nd and Gutekunst is 39th.
Below is All Pro Seasons per year drafting:
Grier is 17th. Gutekunst is off the charts as he has not drafted an All Pro.
Below is % of picks that made at least one Pro Bowl.
Grier is 19th and Gutekunst is 53rd (not shown above).
I included references to Gutekunst because Sullivan was working with him and it's the closest picture we can get to how Sullivan might have drafted, although very imperfect in that regard because we don't know how many, or which, Gutekunst picks he might have disagreed with.
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MrChadRico
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MrChadRico
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Grier ahead of Jason Licht? Now ive heard it all.
Most misleading propaganda ever posted on Finheaven. This is truley award worthy.
"Between 2014 and 2024, Licht’s drafted players have accumulated the most starts (1,873) and snaps (132,091) in the NFL for rounds 1-5."
Yea this guy belongs below Grier. Hilarious!
Most misleading propaganda ever posted on Finheaven. This is truley award worthy.
"Between 2014 and 2024, Licht’s drafted players have accumulated the most starts (1,873) and snaps (132,091) in the NFL for rounds 1-5."
Yea this guy belongs below Grier. Hilarious!
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Grier ahead of Jason Licht? Now ive heard it all.
Most misleading propaganda ever posted on Finheaven. This is truley award worthy.
"Between 2014 and 2024, Licht’s drafted players have accumulated the most starts (1,873) and snaps (132,091) in the NFL for rounds 1-5."
Yea this guy belongs below Grier. Hilarious!
In terms of starter seasons per player year, Licht comes out slightly higher than Grier, which Licht at .464 (21st) and Grier at .445 (27th). As for the other metrics, they are what they are. Licht comes out lower than Grier on most and a bit higher on a few. Them's the facts.
MrChadRico
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What metrics are you looking at man? 90% of Griers picks have busted or at least 80%. Licht has the highest hit rate in the NFL, any criteria thats used that puts Grier above Licht should be thrown out becuase its simply not accurate or relevant criteria to be looking at.
One GM cant draft well and one can, Grier shouldnt be anywhere close to Licht on any list thats comparing draft success.
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And he's right. Achane was his best pick
not to mention, i think it was mcdaniel that liked achane, and grier just kind of sits there mouth agape