The Grier Debate Is Over - Hopefully We Have The Right Guy To Fix It!

[phinsforlife]

It doesn't matter much now because Grier is gone, but by almost all objective measures he did draft better than most GMs.

I've did a pretty extensive statistical analysis of GM draft performance over the last 10 years around the time Grier was fired to see which guys have actually been the most successful drafters. For certain guys that I have potential interest in as a GM candidate for the Dolphins, I extended the analysis over their full careers.

There are 60 GMs in the analysis, but the screenshots below may not show all as they just show what fit on my screen when taking the image. I took draft results from Pro Football Reference and put them in a spreadsheet to be able to compare them across a variety of measures.

The measure that I think it probably the best of them is career Weighted Approximate Value/Player Year Per Average Pick Value. Weighted Approximate Value (wAV) is used to determine a relative value of all players at all positions. On its own it's far from definitive in that regard, but it's still a useful and objective metric to use. The Average Pick Value is the average value of each GM's draft slots based on the traditional JJ trade value chart. There are things one can argue about there too, but it is a commonly used and referenced measure of the value of picking in various places in the draft. This levels the playing field for GMs who have tended to pick later in the draft, i.e., with less draft capital.

View attachment 202069

Grier is 31/80 in this measure. Packers GM Gutekunst is 13/80.

Below is sorted by wAV/Pick, but I don't think that's as useful because it doesn't account for the relative value of the picks.

View attachment 202070

On this one Grier is 22nd and Gutekunst is 39th.

Below is All Pro Seasons per year drafting:

View attachment 202071

Grier is 17th. Gutekunst is off the charts as he has not drafted an All Pro.

Below is % of picks that made at least one Pro Bowl.

View attachment 202072

Grier is 19th and Gutekunst is 53rd (not shown above).

I included references to Gutekunst because Sullivan was working with him and it's the closest picture we can get to how Sullivan might have drafted, although very imperfect in that regard because we don't know how many, or which, Gutekunst picks he might have disagreed with.

This dominant performance was clearly reflected in the team's record and shows you why the rest of the NFL lined up to hire Grier as their GM the second he was fired by Ross. Here is my analysis on Ty Huntely, our old backup QB. He is most elite and should go straight to the hall of fame on the first ballot!

 

[jimthefin]

That is a brutal stat.

Dead last by a good margin.

Some of it is trading picks for players but there were way too many misses.

 

[MARINO1384]

It doesn't matter much now because Grier is gone, but by almost all objective measures he did draft better than most GMs.

I've did a pretty extensive statistical analysis of GM draft performance over the last 10 years around the time Grier was fired to see which guys have actually been the most successful drafters. For certain guys that I have potential interest in as a GM candidate for the Dolphins, I extended the analysis over their full careers.

There are 60 GMs in the analysis, but the screenshots below may not show all as they just show what fit on my screen when taking the image. I took draft results from Pro Football Reference and put them in a spreadsheet to be able to compare them across a variety of measures.

The measure that I think it probably the best of them is career Weighted Approximate Value/Player Year Per Average Pick Value. Weighted Approximate Value (wAV) is used to determine a relative value of all players at all positions. On its own it's far from definitive in that regard, but it's still a useful and objective metric to use. The Average Pick Value is the average value of each GM's draft slots based on the traditional JJ trade value chart. There are things one can argue about there too, but it is a commonly used and referenced measure of the value of picking in various places in the draft. This levels the playing field for GMs who have tended to pick later in the draft, i.e., with less draft capital.

View attachment 202069

Grier is 31/80 in this measure. Packers GM Gutekunst is 13/80.

Below is sorted by wAV/Pick, but I don't think that's as useful because it doesn't account for the relative value of the picks.

View attachment 202070

On this one Grier is 22nd and Gutekunst is 39th.

Below is All Pro Seasons per year drafting:

View attachment 202071

Grier is 17th. Gutekunst is off the charts as he has not drafted an All Pro.

Below is % of picks that made at least one Pro Bowl.

View attachment 202072

Grier is 19th and Gutekunst is 53rd (not shown above).

I included references to Gutekunst because Sullivan was working with him and it's the closest picture we can get to how Sullivan might have drafted, although very imperfect in that regard because we don't know how many, or which, Gutekunst picks he might have disagreed with.

These numbers are likely heavily influenced by Tunsil, Howard and minkah. Grier didn’t have full control of player personal until Tannebaum was let go prior to the 2019 season. Tannebaum was in charge of those drafts that resulted in those players that were heavily decorated.

 

[MrChadRico]

This dominant performance was clearly reflected in the team's record and shows you why the rest of the NFL lined up to hire Grier as their GM the second he was fired by Ross. Here is my analysis on Ty Huntely, our old backup QB. He is most elite and should go straight to the hall of fame on the first ballot!

View attachment 202073

My favorite chart ever made on FH

 

[phinsforlife]

My favorite chart ever made on FH

Thank you. I used all the compute in the world's largest data center for that analysis

 

[mekadave]

Grier is gone and the Fins are on the path to healing and repairing his damage.

The relief is real.

 

[Springveldt]

Don't understand the Achane reference.

Hes stating that drafting Achane should count for something.

After all the evidence and failed draft picks under Grier, I dont know what that something is, but thats what hes doing.

I was just stating that Achane was missed by both of you. For me, he is a difference maker and Chad totally missed him in his long list of picks.

Look, I'm not defending Grier, it's clear now that the dust has settled on his drafts since the tank that he totally blew it. He swung for the fences in trading for Hill, Chubb and Ramsey but his draft picks left the team devoid of any depth as he kept missing on them.

 

[LANGER72]

Greer was employed by the Dolphins 10 years to long

 

[fansinceGWilson]

I was just stating that Achane was missed by both of you. For me, he is a difference maker and Chad totally missed him in his long list of picks.

Look, I'm not defending Grier, it's clear now that the dust has settled on his drafts since the tank that he totally blew it. He swung for the fences in trading for Hill, Chubb and Ramsey but his draft picks left the team devoid of any depth as he kept missing on them.

You're right. Missed him. I was focused on the 1st 3 rounds. Thought he was a 4th. My bad.

 

[39wildman]

If dolphins had better qb grier would still be here in Miami.

 

[Fineas]

What metrics are you looking at man? 90% of Griers picks have busted or at least 80%. Licht has the highest hit rate in the NFL, any criteria thats used that puts Grier above Licht should be thrown out becuase its simply not accurate or relevant criteria to be looking at.

One GM cant draft well and one can, Grier shouldnt be anywhere close to Licht on any list thats comparing draft success.

I’m looking at the metrics I specifically cited in my post. Read it if you want to know.

 

[Fineas]

This dominant performance was clearly reflected in the team's record and shows you why the rest of the NFL lined up to hire Grier as their GM the second he was fired by Ross. Here is my analysis on Ty Huntely, our old backup QB. He is most elite and should go straight to the hall of fame on the first ballot!

View attachment 202073

It’s not a dominant performance , but it is above average. Of course, drafting isn’t the only part of the job.

 

[djphinfan]

The players Grier has selected or traded for that cost multiple draft picks & a few other wasted picks... a tale of the Dolphins current struggle.



Tyreek trade = 1st, 2nd, two 4ths & a 6th.

Chubb trade = 1st & 4th

Ross tampering with Brady = 1st & 3rd

Jalen Wright = 3rd & 4th

Eichenburg = 2nd & 3rd

Waddle = two 1sts & 4th

Kindley = two 4ths

Curtis Weaver = 6th & 7th

Rosen = 2nd & 6th

Jeff Wilson = 5th

Chase Claypool = 6th

Igbo = 1st

Cam Smith = 2nd

Channing Tindal = 3rd

Ezukanma = 4th

Hunter Long = 3rd

Deiter = 3rd

Totals

1st rounders spent = 6
2nd rounders spent= 4
3rd rounders spent= 6
4th rounders spent= 8
5th rounders spent= 1
6th rounders spent= 4
7th rounders spent= 1

For a grand total of 30 draft picks spent on....


only ONE player that will be starting for the team in 2026 (Waddle)"


We can now add to this list.

2024: Add another 1st for the wasted pick on Chop Robenson, when there were THREE, obvious to most, better players on the board in Dejeen, Mitchell & Thomas Jr

Add a 5th for Mo Kamara, a 6th for Patrick McMorris and a 7th for Taj Washington.

2025: So far you can add another 1st for Kenneth Grant

A 2nd AND a 3rd for the trade that had us move up to select Jonah Savaiinaea

And add Two 5ths for the selections of Trader and Marshall


Griers drafting was so bad, you could have pulled names out of a hat and probabaly had more success at drafting than this idiot had.

this should end posts that lack context

 

[Fineas]

These numbers are likely heavily influenced by Tunsil, Howard and minkah. Grier didn’t have full control of player personal until Tannebaum was let go prior to the 2019 season. Tannebaum was in charge of those drafts that resulted in those players that were heavily decorated.

No, Tannenbaum was not in charge of those drafts. Here’s Tannenbaum himself before the 2016 saying Grier was running the draft:

(On how the draft process will work among the staff) - "Chris (Grier) is running the draft. Chris has put a grade on every player, and we've already hashed out where we want to go with things for the most part. We have some more tweaking to do, but we're really going to let the board dictate, and that has really been based on the final grade that Chris has put on each player."

Pre-Draft press conference transcript from Mike Tannenbaum and Chris Grier

Miami Dolphins Executive Vice President for Football Operations Mike Tannenbaum and General Manager Chris Grier met with the media on Friday in a pre-Draft press conference. Here is the transcript of that media availability, as provided by the team.

www.thephinsider.com

And here’s Grier in 2019 confirming that he had final say on draft decions for the prior 3 drafts:

(Before you came in, we were having a debate about the last three years whether you had final say in the draft. Did you have final say in the draft the last three years?) – “Yes, I did. It was a collaboration, as you know. You know me, as we talked about, I’m not going to force a coach to take a player, because that doesn’t work. If the coach doesn’t want a player and I say, ‘No, we’re taking him,’ and then it works out one way or the other, good; but if it doesn’t, it creates that animosity and then the distrust and it’s not worth it, because you’ve been around here long enough and you’ve seen a lot of that happen. I’m not going to force any player on anyone. But yes, I had the final say.”

(So is this year any different?) – “No. You know me, I’m going to be very collaborative and that’s the only way it works. Again, you guys have all heard stories here and stuff from the past. It’s a combination of coaching staff, personnel, all working together, having the same vision, getting on the same page together of picking the players that we feel are good fits for us as an organization.”

2019 | Miami Dolphins Communications Portal

media.miamidolphins.com

 

[phinsforlife]

If dolphins had better qb grier would still be here in Miami.

Who picked the QB?