flintsilver7
Sack Monster
One thing I have noticed this season is that Dolphins fans can be extremely stubborn at times. I had never really noticed there was such a sharp divide here, with some people blindly defending Gus and being absolutely unable to objectively look at the facts.
I'll state mostly facts here with some opinions.
1) Gus Frerotte is a below-average quarterback. In fact, that's generous. According to the numbers - http://www.nfl.com/stats/leaders/NFL/PRAT/2005/regular - he's actually the third worst in the league. You'll notice there are currently two guys behind him. One of them, Michael Vick, has only one reliable target in Alge Crumpler. He plays in a heavily run-centric offense and also doubles as a third running back. His weak quarterback play, as it were, is certainly mitigated by other factors. He's not an accurate passer, though he does have a strong arm. (Sound familiar?) The other, Kyle Orton, is a rookie with seven starts under his belt on a very weak offensive team. He has only one reliable target as well - Muhsin Muhammad. It's probably worth noting that Orton has been improving and at his current pace will be ranked higher than Frerotte next week. Of course, that's purely speculation. My point in all of this is that quarterback play is not why we've won the games we've won. It's obvious with the other teams represented there that have winning records - Chicago and Atlanta have strong running games and good defenses. Also worth nothing is that Gus has three solid targets - Chambers, McMichael and Booker - and most of the other guys on that list towards the bottom have no such talent to surround them.
2) Gus is a 12-year veteran with a long and mediocre career. Yes, he made the Pro Bowl in 1996. His numbers were unspectacular - a 79.6 rating, which this year would put him tied for 20th with Brian Griese - but he still made it. Personally, even if he had posted a 120 QB rating, I wouldn't care, because what he did 9 years ago on a completely different team has absolutely no bearing on what is happening now. He has ALWAYS been inaccurate. He has ALWAYS crumbled under pressure. His poor numbers this year, sadly, are not too far off from his career averages. He's always been a backup. As an every-week starter, Frerotte only got worse. His problems are physical, as has been said, and not mental. They're not going to get fixed.
3) Miami's offensive line gets blamed left and right. While last year's line was horrible - clearly, there was no doubt about this - this year's line is significantly improved. By the numbers, Miami actually has one of the league's best lines. Gus has been sacked 12 times this year. Six of them came on either the second-last or the last possession in the four losses. One of them, last week, was widely attributed to Gus holding the ball far too long. Blitzes are far more likely to succeed on obvious passing downs - this we know. Let's talk about numbers. There are two solid metrics to determine the line's efficiency. One is rushing yardage per carry, and the other is sacks allowed per pass attempt. While the abilities of both the quarterback and the running back factor in, those are not easily measured. They affect each other, as it were - Jake Plummer is ten times better in Denver than he was elsewhere. Using a straight average of these two numbers, Miami's line is ranked third in the league. (The top ten, in order: Denver, Indianapolis, Miami, New York Giants, San Diego/Seattle (tied), Cincinnati, Kansas City, Atlanta, and St. Louis. The bottom ten, starting with the worst: New York Jets, Arizona, Dallas, San Francisco, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, and Houston.) Some might look out of place. Some look to be right in place. Take these numbers for what you will, but my point is that it's not the line's fault.
Sidebar: Surely somebody will say that Ronnie's long runs skew our rushing average, and without those we're actually at x.xx yards per carry and so on. Well, there are numbers on this as well. Does it happen? Sure. Miami is 6th in the league of runs of 20+, and 7th in the league of runs of 20+ per rushing attempt. (Top 10 in Rushing Plays of 20+ per Attempt: Atlanta, Denver, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, New York Giants, Miami, San Francisco, Chicago, and St. Louis.) You'll notice that even bad teams - with bad offensive lines by the numbers - can occasionally break long runs. This alone doesn't skew anything, though. Tampa and San Francisco still can't pass block (ranked 26th and 30th, respectively) while being average at run blocking (tied for 15th). However, the trend is that the better lines allow for more long runs.
4) Gus has not had to deal with incorrect routes and dropped passes any more than any other quarterback in the league. Personally, I refuse to believe that a former Pro Bowler and two potential Pro Bowlers (Chambers and McMichael) are running incorrect routes when guys who have never played here (or anywhere) such as Welker and Diamond are doing fine. Sure, they drop passes, but so do other receivers. I simply don't believe - nor does watching the games make me think - that Miami's receivers are making it any harder on Gus than any other teams are on their respective quarterbacks.
Quite simply, what this means is that Gus is not leading us to any victories. If you claim that he has, the average replacement player could have done better. It's hard to believe that any other quarterback would not have scored more points against New Orleans, which is just a bad team. I don't buy into any garbage about "managing the game" or "poise in the pocket" or "knowledge of the system" because when it counts - game time - Gus has failed to put points on the board.
I'll state mostly facts here with some opinions.
1) Gus Frerotte is a below-average quarterback. In fact, that's generous. According to the numbers - http://www.nfl.com/stats/leaders/NFL/PRAT/2005/regular - he's actually the third worst in the league. You'll notice there are currently two guys behind him. One of them, Michael Vick, has only one reliable target in Alge Crumpler. He plays in a heavily run-centric offense and also doubles as a third running back. His weak quarterback play, as it were, is certainly mitigated by other factors. He's not an accurate passer, though he does have a strong arm. (Sound familiar?) The other, Kyle Orton, is a rookie with seven starts under his belt on a very weak offensive team. He has only one reliable target as well - Muhsin Muhammad. It's probably worth noting that Orton has been improving and at his current pace will be ranked higher than Frerotte next week. Of course, that's purely speculation. My point in all of this is that quarterback play is not why we've won the games we've won. It's obvious with the other teams represented there that have winning records - Chicago and Atlanta have strong running games and good defenses. Also worth nothing is that Gus has three solid targets - Chambers, McMichael and Booker - and most of the other guys on that list towards the bottom have no such talent to surround them.
2) Gus is a 12-year veteran with a long and mediocre career. Yes, he made the Pro Bowl in 1996. His numbers were unspectacular - a 79.6 rating, which this year would put him tied for 20th with Brian Griese - but he still made it. Personally, even if he had posted a 120 QB rating, I wouldn't care, because what he did 9 years ago on a completely different team has absolutely no bearing on what is happening now. He has ALWAYS been inaccurate. He has ALWAYS crumbled under pressure. His poor numbers this year, sadly, are not too far off from his career averages. He's always been a backup. As an every-week starter, Frerotte only got worse. His problems are physical, as has been said, and not mental. They're not going to get fixed.
3) Miami's offensive line gets blamed left and right. While last year's line was horrible - clearly, there was no doubt about this - this year's line is significantly improved. By the numbers, Miami actually has one of the league's best lines. Gus has been sacked 12 times this year. Six of them came on either the second-last or the last possession in the four losses. One of them, last week, was widely attributed to Gus holding the ball far too long. Blitzes are far more likely to succeed on obvious passing downs - this we know. Let's talk about numbers. There are two solid metrics to determine the line's efficiency. One is rushing yardage per carry, and the other is sacks allowed per pass attempt. While the abilities of both the quarterback and the running back factor in, those are not easily measured. They affect each other, as it were - Jake Plummer is ten times better in Denver than he was elsewhere. Using a straight average of these two numbers, Miami's line is ranked third in the league. (The top ten, in order: Denver, Indianapolis, Miami, New York Giants, San Diego/Seattle (tied), Cincinnati, Kansas City, Atlanta, and St. Louis. The bottom ten, starting with the worst: New York Jets, Arizona, Dallas, San Francisco, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, and Houston.) Some might look out of place. Some look to be right in place. Take these numbers for what you will, but my point is that it's not the line's fault.
Sidebar: Surely somebody will say that Ronnie's long runs skew our rushing average, and without those we're actually at x.xx yards per carry and so on. Well, there are numbers on this as well. Does it happen? Sure. Miami is 6th in the league of runs of 20+, and 7th in the league of runs of 20+ per rushing attempt. (Top 10 in Rushing Plays of 20+ per Attempt: Atlanta, Denver, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, New York Giants, Miami, San Francisco, Chicago, and St. Louis.) You'll notice that even bad teams - with bad offensive lines by the numbers - can occasionally break long runs. This alone doesn't skew anything, though. Tampa and San Francisco still can't pass block (ranked 26th and 30th, respectively) while being average at run blocking (tied for 15th). However, the trend is that the better lines allow for more long runs.
4) Gus has not had to deal with incorrect routes and dropped passes any more than any other quarterback in the league. Personally, I refuse to believe that a former Pro Bowler and two potential Pro Bowlers (Chambers and McMichael) are running incorrect routes when guys who have never played here (or anywhere) such as Welker and Diamond are doing fine. Sure, they drop passes, but so do other receivers. I simply don't believe - nor does watching the games make me think - that Miami's receivers are making it any harder on Gus than any other teams are on their respective quarterbacks.
Quite simply, what this means is that Gus is not leading us to any victories. If you claim that he has, the average replacement player could have done better. It's hard to believe that any other quarterback would not have scored more points against New Orleans, which is just a bad team. I don't buy into any garbage about "managing the game" or "poise in the pocket" or "knowledge of the system" because when it counts - game time - Gus has failed to put points on the board.
