The Josh Rosen Saga: Will It Happen All Over Again With The Miami Dolphins?

BlueFin

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Blu are you saying he was ready to play ?
Yeah... I watched the Seattle game...his first start... and if you take everything into account that was the healthiest line he was behind... and he played more than good enough to beat Seattle...the 5 big drops were the difference.

As the season progressed and all 5 starters went on IR he was under constant pressure...and they replaced his OC with a rookie OC....I think he tried to force too much because of the pressure and it made it bad.

Every rookie QB has a learning curve...I think he can really play and if they protect him adequately I am sure he will be fine.
 

Awsi Dooger

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Miami, I can't remember when, hasn't done a move like this in awhile.

Got a sale on a kid that has a past of excellence. Past of being great. It's a win win move no matter how you want to slice it.
Agreed. Sale is the proper term and I don't think many Dolphins fans grasp what a bargain it was.

For reference, the chart trade value of the 10th pick in the draft is more than 4 times the value of the 62nd pick. That holds true whether you use the old Jimmy Johnson chart or the newer ones that have been adjusted for rookie wage scale. There are various versions out there but the Jimmy Johnson model had the 10th pick worth 4.57 times more than the 62nd pick, and the newer charts I have seen have dropped it closer to 4.39 times as valuable.

Essentially, that means Josh Rosen was only worth 23% as much when we traded for him on draft day 2019, compared to (100% ) on draft day 2018.

Really. And not an injury involved. Pure subjective alteration. Josh Rosen's level has plummeted that much. I'm willing to wager on the No every time, given cost realities like that.

Plus we're not even picking up the full salary tab.
 

TeeMoney

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Yeah... I watched the Seattle game...his first start... and if you take everything into account that was the healthiest line he was behind... and he played more than good enough to beat Seattle...the 5 big drops were the difference.

As the season progressed and all 5 starters went on IR he was under constant pressure...and they replaced his OC with a rookie OC....I think he tried to force too much because of the pressure and it made it bad.

Every rookie QB has a learning curve...I think he can really play and if they protect him adequately I am sure he will be fine.
 

PhxSunFan34

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It's never a waste for a potential franchise QB. I don't understand being against turning over every stone for one.

Also I don't think we'll do to Rosen what AZ did. Even if he isn't starter material right away, he can still be groomed.
 

BlueFin

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Agreed. Sale is the proper term and I don't think many Dolphins fans grasp what a bargain it was.

For reference, the chart trade value of the 10th pick in the draft is more than 4 times the value of the 62nd pick. That holds true whether you use the old Jimmy Johnson chart or the newer ones that have been adjusted for rookie wage scale. There are various versions out there but the Jimmy Johnson model had the 10th pick worth 4.57 times more than the 62nd pick, and the newer charts I have seen have dropped it closer to 4.39 times as valuable.

Essentially, that means Josh Rosen was only worth 23% as much when we traded for him on draft day 2019, compared to (100% ) on draft day 2018.

Really. And not an injury involved. Pure subjective alteration. Josh Rosen's level has plummeted that much. I'm willing to wager on the No every time, given cost realities like that.

Plus we're not even picking up the full salary tab.
Exactly... and is he really of any less value as a prospect than Darnold or Allen at this point?
 

djphinfan

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Exactly... and is he really of any less value as a prospect than Darnold or Allen at this point?
I don’t have him on Darnolds level but with relative value being part of the evaluation I see what you mean.
 

TedSlimmJr

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He's not on Darnold's or Josh Allen's level. Those two didn't get traded after their rookie seasons. Both would've drawn more than what Rosen brought in a trade if they had been though.

You can't ignore the fact that Darnold beat out Fitzpatrick as a rookie. Rosen still has a lot of ground to make up to overtake Fitzpatrick. But that doesn't mean it wasn't a smart trade for Miami. It was. Whether Rosen ends up being the quarterback for the next 10 years is irrelevant. What it shows is a change in thinking among the Dolphins organization. They understand how to properly value the quarterback position now, and take calculated risks that make sense. While still maintaining a holding pattern to fire more missiles at better prospects in the future.

I've always liked Rosen to an extent, but not on the level of the other two. The reason is because Darnold and Allen are so much more athletic and mobile - in addition to having better throwing arms. They're both able to deal with pressure a little better than Rosen. Behind the exact same caliber of offensive line, Darnold and Allen will outperform Rosen. This became apparent during their college careers.

When Darnold faced Ohio St.'s defensive line in 2017 - USC got hammered 24-7. But this was the game that sealed Darnold's grade for me. He was facing by far the best defensive line in college football. Equivalent to Clemson's defensive line last year or Mississippi St.'s. Darnold was under constant pressure. Could never set his feet to deliver a pass. Yet he was still able to manage to throw for over 350 yards and maintain nearly an 8/YPA clip. When you watched the film, the performance was far more impressive than the stats, despite not actually throwing a TD pass. The skills, talent, and toughness needed to succeed under heavy fire were on display. His eye level never dropped. And this was from a young Redshirt Sophomore quarterback.

This is the game scouts became convinced, and Darnold was able to receive feedback that urged him to enter the draft. The NFL was higher on him than any other quarterback in that draft, despite also being the most inexperienced - and rightfully so. I was too.

However, if you go back to how the college season unfolded from the beginning that year, Rosen was the one off to the hottest start of the three. Passing for 9 TD's / 0 INT's in his first two games against weak defenses in Hawaii and Texas A&M. Meanwhile, Darnold had a 0 TD / 2 INT game to start the season against Western Michigan - a team that ended up being loaded in the secondary with several NFL DB's. Darnold had throw 4 TD's & 4 INT's through his first 2 games, compared to Rosen's 9 TD / 0 INT start through 2 games. Josh Allen had also struggled in a 0 TD / 2 INT game to open the season against a tough Iowa defense. Rosen had gotten off the hottest start by far.

The narrative at the time was that Rosen was easily the most NFL ready quarterback, and the other two were likely going to need to stay in school unless somehow they were to drastically turn around their seasons.

But I took a closer look at Rosen's game against Texas A&M. The one people like to refer to as the greatest comeback in college football. After I watched the film of that game, I posted in the draft forum in my underclassman QB thread that Rosen was literally a few inches away from having the type of games Darnold and Allen had been having against tough defenses.

Sure enough, Rosen went out and put up a 0 TD, 3 INT game in a loss against Arizona less than 2 weeks later. The evidence was already there. This multiple INT game should've happened against Texas A&M. But they kept dropping all the interceptions. Darnold and Allen were having no such luck.

Furthermore, when the news came out about Rosen's own head coach, Jim Mora Jr. making the comment that he believed Sam Darnold would be a better fit for the Browns with the #1 overall pick than Josh Rosen, I thought he was simply stating the obvious. Just not a politically correct thing to do.

I also commented on this particular situation in the draft forum in my underclassman QB thread. If you knew Rosen's background and where he came from as compared to Sam Darnold, you understand why Mora said what he said. He was absolutely right. Because Darnold came from a background where his parents instilled the value of hard work in him. He just had a different mentality than Rosen when it came to football.

I said I believed Mora's comments point towards what my evaluation was in regards to the two anyway. Basically, Darnold could succeed anywhere. But Rosen's best chance to succeed would be to go a team that coddles their quarterbacks. A team like Miami. A team whose owner, fanbase, and culture align more with all Rosen's millenialistic personality traits and outside interests - and are willing to sympathize. A team that gave a QB like Ryan Tannehill 7 years.

Cleveland don't coddle quarterbacks. This was Mora's point. But I had already established this theory in general in regards to the QB class of 2018 through my preparation. Obviously Arizona isn't interested in coddling QB's either.

I know a lot of people completely sacrificed their own opinion of Rosen the instant he became a member of the Dolphins and flipped - and to those I would simply advise to tread very carefully. You're setting yourself up for massive disappointment if it doesn't work out. Nobody here liked him before and didn't want to trade for him. You all probably still don't if you're honest with yourselves. I said I would trade for Rosen if the price was right back when it was a landslide around here that Miami shouldn't.

But there is hope it can work out to some extent for Rosen and for Miami. More importantly, it demonstrates that Miami's front office gets it now. Whether he does or doesn't work out. But there is no way and no how, Rosen will take Miami out of the QB market in next year's draft. You have to be able to stop looking at things like a fanatic and look at it from a different perspective. Take the emotion thinking out of it.

To me, that's been the biggest issue with the Dolphins for far too long. They've made decisions and ran their organization like fans instead of an organization dedicated to excellence and winning. Always making a move a year late when instead you should've made that exact same move a year or 2 years earlier. That's what I see different with this new regime that was missing with all the previous ones.

Rosen is but a small and potentially insignificant speck in the entirety of it all. It's what it symbolizes that is far more significant.
 
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39wildman

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Brock Osweiler is luck guy. he made lot money. some of these gm don't know football at all. Rosen have to be better than OS
 

Gsmack_42

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He's not on Darnold's or Josh Allen's level. Those two didn't get traded after their rookie seasons. Both would've drawn more than what Rosen brought in a trade if they had been though.

You can't ignore the fact that Darnold beat out Fitzpatrick as a rookie. Rosen still has a lot of ground to make up to overtake Fitzpatrick. But that doesn't mean it wasn't a smart trade for Miami. It was. Whether Rosen ends up being the quarterback for the next 10 years is irrelevant. What it shows is a change in thinking among the Dolphins organization. They understand how to properly value the quarterback position now, and take calculated risks that make sense. While still maintaining a holding pattern to fire more missiles at better prospects in the future.

I've always liked Rosen to an extent, but not on the level of the other two. The reason is because Darnold and Allen are so much more athletic and mobile - in addition to having better throwing arms. They're both able to deal with pressure a little better than Rosen. Behind the exact same caliber of offensive line, Darnold and Allen will outperform Rosen. This became apparent during their college careers.

When Darnold faced Ohio St.'s defensive line in 2017 - USC got hammered 24-7. But this was the game that sealed Darnold's grade for me. He was facing by far the best defensive line in college football. Equivalent to Clemson's defensive line last year or Mississippi St.'s. Darnold was under constant pressure. Could never set his feet to deliver a pass. Yet he was still able to manage to throw for over 350 yards and maintain nearly an 8/YPA clip. When you watched the film, the performance was far more impressive than the stats, despite not actually throwing a TD pass. The skills, talent, and toughness needed to succeed under heavy fire were on display. His eye level never dropped. And this was from a young Redshirt Sophomore quarterback.

This is the game scouts became convinced, and Darnold was able to receive feedback that urged him to enter the draft. The NFL was higher on him than any other quarterback in that draft, despite also being the most inexperienced - and rightfully so. I was too.

However, if you go back to how the college season unfolded from the beginning that year, Rosen was the one off to the hottest start of the three. Passing for 9 TD's / 0 INT's in his first two games against weak defenses in Hawaii and Texas A&M. Meanwhile, Darnold had a 0 TD / 2 INT game to start the season against Western Michigan - a team that ended up being loaded in the secondary with several NFL DB's. Darnold had throw 4 TD's & 4 INT's through his first 2 games, compared to Rosen's 9 TD / 0 INT start through 2 games. Josh Allen had also struggled in a 0 TD / 2 INT game to open the season against a tough Iowa defense. Rosen had gotten off the hottest start by far.

The narrative at the time was that Rosen was easily the most NFL ready quarterback, and the other two were likely going to need to stay in school unless somehow they were to drastically turn around their seasons.

But I took a closer look at Rosen's game against Texas A&M. The one people like to refer to as the greatest comeback in college football. After I watched the film of that game, I posted in the draft forum in my underclassman QB thread that Rosen was literally a few inches away from having the type of games Darnold and Allen had been having against tough defenses.

Sure enough, Rosen went out and put up a 0 TD, 3 INT game in a loss against Arizona less than 2 weeks later. The evidence was already there. This multiple INT game should've happened against Texas A&M. But they kept dropping all the interceptions. Darnold and Allen were having no such luck.

Furthermore, when the news came out about Rosen's own head coach, Jim Mora Jr. making the comment that he believed Sam Darnold would be a better fit for the Browns with the #1 overall pick than Josh Rosen, I thought he was simply stating the obvious. Just not a politically correct thing to do.

I also commented on this particular situation in the draft forum in my underclassman QB thread. If you knew Rosen's background and where he came from as compared to Sam Darnold, you understand why Mora said what he said. He was absolutely right. Because Darnold came from a background where his parents instilled the value of hard work in him. He just had a different mentality than Rosen when it came to football.

I said I believed Mora's comments point towards what my evaluation was in regards to the two anyway. Basically, Darnold could succeed anywhere. But Rosen's best chance to succeed would be to go a team that coddles their quarterbacks. A team like Miami. A team whose owner, fanbase, and culture align more with all Rosen's millenialistic personality traits and outside interests - and are willing to sympathize. A team that gave a QB like Ryan Tannehill 7 years.

Cleveland don't coddle quarterbacks. This was Mora's point. But I had already established this theory in general in regards to the QB class of 2018 through my preparation. Obviously Arizona isn't interested in coddling QB's either.

I know a lot of people completely sacrificed their own opinion of Rosen the instant he became a member of the Dolphins and flipped - and to those I would simply advise to tread very carefully. You're setting yourself up for massive disappointment if it doesn't work out. Nobody here liked him before and didn't want to trade for him. You all probably still don't if you're honest with yourselves. I said I would trade for Rosen if the price was right back when it was a landslide around here that Miami shouldn't.

But there is hope it can work out to some extent for Rosen and for Miami. More importantly, it demonstrates that Miami's front office gets it now. Whether he does or doesn't work out. But there is no way and no how, Rosen will take Miami out of the QB market in next year's draft. You have to be able to stop looking at things like a fanatic and look at it from a different perspective. Take the emotion thinking out of it.

To me, that's been the biggest issue with the Dolphins for far too long. They've made decisions and ran their organization like fans instead of an organization dedicated to excellence and winning. Always making a move a year late when instead you should've made that exact same move a year or 2 years earlier. That's what I see different with this new regime that was missing with all the previous ones.

Rosen is but a small and potentially insignificant speck in the entirety of it all. It's what it symbolizes that is far more significant.
I thought Fitzpatrick played for the Bucs last year. So how did Darnold beat him out for the Jets starting job?
 

BlueFin

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He's not on Darnold's or Josh Allen's level. Those two didn't get traded after their rookie seasons. Both would've drawn more than what Rosen brought in a trade if they had been though.

You can't ignore the fact that Darnold beat out Fitzpatrick as a rookie. Rosen still has a lot of ground to make up to overtake Fitzpatrick. But that doesn't mean it wasn't a smart trade for Miami. It was. Whether Rosen ends up being the quarterback for the next 10 years is irrelevant. What it shows is a change in thinking among the Dolphins organization. They understand how to properly value the quarterback position now, and take calculated risks that make sense. While still maintaining a holding pattern to fire more missiles at better prospects in the future.

I've always liked Rosen to an extent, but not on the level of the other two. The reason is because Darnold and Allen are so much more athletic and mobile - in addition to having better throwing arms. They're both able to deal with pressure a little better than Rosen. Behind the exact same caliber of offensive line, Darnold and Allen will outperform Rosen. This became apparent during their college careers.

When Darnold faced Ohio St.'s defensive line in 2017 - USC got hammered 24-7. But this was the game that sealed Darnold's grade for me. He was facing by far the best defensive line in college football. Equivalent to Clemson's defensive line last year or Mississippi St.'s. Darnold was under constant pressure. Could never set his feet to deliver a pass. Yet he was still able to manage to throw for over 350 yards and maintain nearly an 8/YPA clip. When you watched the film, the performance was far more impressive than the stats, despite not actually throwing a TD pass. The skills, talent, and toughness needed to succeed under heavy fire were on display. His eye level never dropped. And this was from a young Redshirt Sophomore quarterback.

This is the game scouts became convinced, and Darnold was able to receive feedback that urged him to enter the draft. The NFL was higher on him than any other quarterback in that draft, despite also being the most inexperienced - and rightfully so. I was too.

However, if you go back to how the college season unfolded from the beginning that year, Rosen was the one off to the hottest start of the three. Passing for 9 TD's / 0 INT's in his first two games against weak defenses in Hawaii and Texas A&M. Meanwhile, Darnold had a 0 TD / 2 INT game to start the season against Western Michigan - a team that ended up being loaded in the secondary with several NFL DB's. Darnold had throw 4 TD's & 4 INT's through his first 2 games, compared to Rosen's 9 TD / 0 INT start through 2 games. Josh Allen had also struggled in a 0 TD / 2 INT game to open the season against a tough Iowa defense. Rosen had gotten off the hottest start by far.

The narrative at the time was that Rosen was easily the most NFL ready quarterback, and the other two were likely going to need to stay in school unless somehow they were to drastically turn around their seasons.

But I took a closer look at Rosen's game against Texas A&M. The one people like to refer to as the greatest comeback in college football. After I watched the film of that game, I posted in the draft forum in my underclassman QB thread that Rosen was literally a few inches away from having the type of games Darnold and Allen had been having against tough defenses.

Sure enough, Rosen went out and put up a 0 TD, 3 INT game in a loss against Arizona less than 2 weeks later. The evidence was already there. This multiple INT game should've happened against Texas A&M. But they kept dropping all the interceptions. Darnold and Allen were having no such luck.

Furthermore, when the news came out about Rosen's own head coach, Jim Mora Jr. making the comment that he believed Sam Darnold would be a better fit for the Browns with the #1 overall pick than Josh Rosen, I thought he was simply stating the obvious. Just not a politically correct thing to do.

I also commented on this particular situation in the draft forum in my underclassman QB thread. If you knew Rosen's background and where he came from as compared to Sam Darnold, you understand why Mora said what he said. He was absolutely right. Because Darnold came from a background where his parents instilled the value of hard work in him. He just had a different mentality than Rosen when it came to football.

I said I believed Mora's comments point towards what my evaluation was in regards to the two anyway. Basically, Darnold could succeed anywhere. But Rosen's best chance to succeed would be to go a team that coddles their quarterbacks. A team like Miami. A team whose owner, fanbase, and culture align more with all Rosen's millenialistic personality traits and outside interests - and are willing to sympathize. A team that gave a QB like Ryan Tannehill 7 years.

Cleveland don't coddle quarterbacks. This was Mora's point. But I had already established this theory in general in regards to the QB class of 2018 through my preparation. Obviously Arizona isn't interested in coddling QB's either.

I know a lot of people completely sacrificed their own opinion of Rosen the instant he became a member of the Dolphins and flipped - and to those I would simply advise to tread very carefully. You're setting yourself up for massive disappointment if it doesn't work out. Nobody here liked him before and didn't want to trade for him. You all probably still don't if you're honest with yourselves. I said I would trade for Rosen if the price was right back when it was a landslide around here that Miami shouldn't.

But there is hope it can work out to some extent for Rosen and for Miami. More importantly, it demonstrates that Miami's front office gets it now. Whether he does or doesn't work out. But there is no way and no how, Rosen will take Miami out of the QB market in next year's draft. You have to be able to stop looking at things like a fanatic and look at it from a different perspective. Take the emotion thinking out of it.

To me, that's been the biggest issue with the Dolphins for far too long. They've made decisions and ran their organization like fans instead of an organization dedicated to excellence and winning. Always making a move a year late when instead you should've made that exact same move a year or 2 years earlier. That's what I see different with this new regime that was missing with all the previous ones.

Rosen is but a small and potentially insignificant speck in the entirety of it all. It's what it symbolizes that is far more significant.
Don’t agree with you about Darnold... don’t care for Allen’s accuracy... we’ll see?
 

39wildman

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to be real Fitz in fair competition would beat out Darnold, Allens or Jackson but long term they could be better. Fitz will give all these guy run for there money. I like Allen better than Jackson and Darnold. fitz is not long term answer. every team in nfl know that. so they are going take chance with younger guy.
 

BlueFin

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I thought Fitzpatrick played for the Bucs last year. So how did Darnold beat him out for the Jets starting job?
You know... I think I remember that.

Maybe he was so amazing at USC that the Jets cut Fitzpatrick prior to the draft feeling that Darnold beat him out figuratively?
 

BlueFin

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to be real Fitz in fair competition would beat out Darnold, Allens or Jackson but long term they could be better. Fitz will give all these guy run for there money. I like Allen better than Jackson and Darnold. fitz is not long term answer. every team in nfl know that. so they are going take chance with younger guy.
I don’t think Darnold will be a franchise QB....Allen doesn’t seem to be accurate enough.
 

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Meh, worst case scenario, I see him as a good backup whose young and really cheap.

He ostensibly didn't even cost us a draft pick.

I didn't really like any of the top three QB's in last year's draft.
Darnold plays too risky
Allen isn't accurate enough
Rosen just looked bland

Any of them could take off and I expect Gase to have Darnold looking good.

Rosen seemed the most cerebral player, but they all came in with warts; none of them were no brainers.

Watch Grier flip him for an early second next year...
 
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