The Miami Dolphins Are A 10 Win Team And Here Is Why

[dirkey]

We not have been a dynasty for a few decades, but we have started to be one under Adam Gase. Looking at the change in the Dolphins performance since Gase arrived, especially under last years combinations of problems is enlightening. Some of the teams ratings actually improved over 2015 under dire circumstances. That's tough to do, especially after a 10-6, 2015 season.

The Packers loss of their QB for most of last year yielded about the same results as our losing our QB and a key LB'er for the entire year, a drugged up coach that had to be replaced on the fly, a key free agent who ran away on the day of a game, a hurricane causing a schedule change resulting in the loss of a home field of a game on opening day and replacing it with a bye week on opening day, the limited availability of our veteran center to practice during the week and some back to back to back travel dates that occurred immediately after the hurricane that effected the teams families, and finally three key players who choose to go off script to enhance their stats rather than run the plays called for. All this and we were still in the running for a wild card position until the last few games. Your know of this.

Most people would say the Packers have been a dynasty. They are right to use the past tense.

Most people would say the Patriots are a dynasty. This year may show that their dynasty is coming to an end. The beginning of the end for the Patriots may have been last year when we blew them out of the water with a backup retired QB with some broken ribs and a depleted OL using a lot of 2nd teamers. Were the Patriots really bad or were we really good? I think a little of both. I can see us looking back a few years from now and concluding that the pivot point where the Patriots dynasty started to falter and the Dolphins dynasty started to show itself was that game.

Based on all of the above I am really looking forward to the 2018 Dolphins season. Will we see a set of serial catastrophes like last year and just eke out a middle of the road record or will we see about the same number and kinds of problems most other NFL teams run into and get into the play offs? In my mind there is no question that the absurd 2017 type of year will not re-occur. We are going to be in the playoffs and I look forward the watching the season as we get there.

I do think you're putting way too much stock in one victory against the pats. How about the bigger beating they gave us in first game? What's more likely, in my mind, is that they came in complacent against what they rightfully viewed as a poor team. And we caught lightning in a bottle that night.

 

[Digital]

I loved the article, agree with just about everything, and can definitely see us being a 10 win team. That said, I'm calling 9-7, because we have a significant weakness at DT, lack depth at RB (I'm not confident in Drake's ability to stay healthy, Gore's age, and I'm not sold on Ballage as anything but a 3rd down back and core special teamer).

I'm expecting a lot of improvement, off the back of improved play to finish the season from young guys like Xavien Howard, Cordrea Tankersley, Kenyon Drake, Jesse Davis, Jakeem Grant, and the return to health of guys like Raekwon McMillan, William Hayes and Tony Lippett. I'm excited for Josh Sitton, happy about Daniel Kilgore, cautiously optimistic for the health of Robert Quinn. I'm hoping for rapid development of a lot of rookies, like Minkah Fitzpatrick who adds exactly what our secondary has been needing, to ditto for the offense with Mike Gesicki. Situational plug-ins like 3rd down back Ballage and in-line TE Smythe.

That's a lot of positivity. Adding Albert Wilson and Danny Amendola, couple with a deep threat, size mismatch and red zone/3rd down target in Gesicki, probably means we will not miss Jarvis Landry nearly as much as many people think. But, the hole left by Ndamakong Suh will be large. That really worries me. Because we play 4 attacking gap-penetrators along the DL, we really throw our LB's to the wolves, so it's a horribly tough challenge for our LB corps. This scheme is about as hard on LB's as any I can imagine. So, I hope we're not too harsh on McMillan, because he'll never be kept clean by this DL. It's by design unfortunately.

But, with Tannehill and most receivers having a third year in this offense … I'm expecting our offense to really make dramatic improvements. We could easily win 10 games … but our DL really needs to be hitting on all cylinders. Guys like Andre Branch, Charles Harris, Akeem Spence, Davon Godchaux, and the rest of the rotational DL guys need to really step it up. What they did last year simply will not cut it. The key to our outstanding secondary looking great is pass rush. Wake is like 36 or something, Quinn has endured a lot of surgeries and isn't the youngest, Harris isn't consistent enough yet, Branch is mediocre, and we don't blitz that much. So, generating that pass rush is going to be essential, and those guys need to step up.

The key to run defense is our DL not being dominated. Last year, the only guy who played the run well was Suh … and uh … that was while being double-teamed. This does not bode well. So, our DL needs to significantly improve for our defense to work and our secondary to shine. Otherwise, we may be thrown back to the 80's when we needed to outscore teams. And as big of an upgrade as we are getting with Tannehill returning, expecting him to be Marino simply isn't fair to any QB. So, our DL better be up for a stellar season. Because consistently winning shootouts isn't really our thing.

 

[Digital]

Maybe a little more this then that.





DL is somewhat known, not sure if it was better with Suh, since we weren't top 10 run stop. We're have to see how they them. As far as DE, isn't Wake still here?, Quinn had 8 1/2 sacks from his LBer position last year, now he can hunt full time. So it's possible for one of those two to get double digit sacks if not both. Our 1st round pick from last year may improve and Hayes and Andre aren't bad.


True


Landry was not a true #1 receiver, he was the #1 targeted receiver. Basically playing the blanket of a TE and Slot. Think back over the years, our slot receivers have done pretty good, making up for not having a real good TE.



Wasn't Kilgore on the field last year G was killing it for his new contract. That was Kilgore at center correct, SF did resign him if I'm not mistaken. Just don't think he's a downgrade. We know what the rest of this group can do. The only one we haven't had was Sitton, so other than James being out the last 8 games, Drake was running behind these guys for the league leading rush job at the end correct? Now some who were there are back ups. Not a bad place to be in.



wasn't Drake a difference maker once he was the starter? Just sayin, he beat out all those guys you named in the last 5-6 games if I remember correctly. Gore, HOF, looked pretty good last year. If our OL remain as good as they were at the end of last year, then I can see him having a very successful 2018 campaign, and our rookie, agreed, unknown.


Who knows some rooks show their stuff from the get go, others need a year or two. I really thought Gray should have played more last year, especially when Thomas wasn't showing much. Gray had a pretty good 2016, so I couldn't understand why they didn't use him more last year. When he did get in, he played pretty good. At least he has chemistry with Tannehill..we'll see.



Agree, we should compare our team to those we're going to play. But if you don't have hope, you have nothing. It's not about strategy for the fan, its supporting your team and HOPING they've done enough to be better this year. The strategy is at the GM/coaches level.

Excellent post MDFINFAN!

I do think that JahnDoh makes some good points, but I also think he may be underestimating our talent. Your point by point analysis mirrors a lot of what I was thinking. We will see a better OL overall. Gesicki will be inconsistent, but his rookie flashes should be dramatically more than we ever saw from Julius Thomas or Cameron Jordon (who in fairness was injured the whole time really). Drake proved himself … my only concern with him is health. We added an in-line TE in Smythe and a 3rd down pass-pro/receiving RB in Ballage. With better run blockers ahead of them, our running game should improve. With better pass protection and a returning Tannehill, I'm expecting our passing game to make major strides and not really even miss Landry.

Lots of positives on the defense as well … but much of it may be masked by the holes we have at DT. We do not keep our LB's clean, so they'll continue to look subpar, even if they're playing at pro-bowl levels. We have a lot of very real questions about our pass rush. If we have one, expect our secondary to really shine. If our pass rush is subpar, expect us to give up a lot of points and see a lot of exposed press-man CB's.

Definitely more upgrades than downgrades … but the play of our DL may really prove to be the deciding factor on this season. I have my fingers crossed and Fins Up!

 

[Digital]

Never thought I'd see the day somebody pimped Pouncy.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/players/mike-pouncey/6167

https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/players/daniel-kilgore/6315

Kilgore was better last year, not to mention the intangibles effect

Great point … and Jake Brendel rated better than both of them by that same PFF metric.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/players/jake-brendel/11117

Interesting that not only is Pouncey the oldest, most injury prone, and highest paid, but he also rated the lowest of the three. At least the guy never had any off-field baggage.

 

[Ray R]

I do think you're putting way too much stock in one victory against the pats. How about the bigger beating they gave us in first game? What's more likely, in my mind, is that they came in complacent against what they rightfully viewed as a poor team. And we caught lightning in a bottle that night.

I think we see the same thing but are emphasizing the polar opposite aspects of what we saw.

You point out we lost the first game to the Patriots and won the second game. I agree
You say the beating we got in the first game was worse then the beating we gave them in the second game. Maybe, but what about the teams internal functions in those two games?
The Patriots were without Gronk in the second game which reduced their capabilities. Looking good for your position so far.
Keep in mind that a second meeting in a season has both teams with better information about each other. This implies that the second game should be a closer contest.

In my opinion, in the second game we:
1) Outcoached them plain and simple. They were caught out of position too many times for it to have been anything else. Not lightning in a bottle although it may have looked that way.
2) Our players played at a higher level then the first game, especially our QB and OL. Not lightning in a bottle although it may have looked that way.
3) The response to this game by the Patriots for the rest of the year says something about how bad they felt they got beat. They were embarrassed, I recall hearing the media commentators alluding to it during the week after the game.
4) This was one of those games where the score was not indicative of the performance difference between the two teams. oop happens!

I see the second game as having little to do with luck (we didn't have any last year) and everything to do with our team playing at its full capability, which didn't happen often last year. The Patriots were not complacent; they just had their ass handed to them by the Dolphins. Remember, we did this with Cutler as QB with 2 broken ribs. How complacent would they have to have been to lose? Probably lying down on the ground before each play if the Cutler haters on this board are right!

 

[Digital]

I think we see the same thing but are emphasizing the polar opposite aspects of what we saw.

You point out we lost the first game to the Patriots and won the second game. I agree
You say the beating we got in the first game was worse then the beating we gave them in the second game. Maybe, but what about the teams internal functions in those two games?
The Patriots were without Gronk in the second game which reduced their capabilities. Looking good for your position so far.
Keep in mind that a second meeting in a season has both teams with better information about each other. This implies that the second game should be a closer contest.

In my opinion, in the second game we:
1) Outcoached them plain and simple. They were caught out of position too many times for it to have been anything else. Not lightning in a bottle although it may have looked that way.
2) Our players played at a higher level then the first game, especially our QB and OL. Not lightning in a bottle although it may have looked that way.
3) The response to this game by the Patriots for the rest of the year says something about how bad they felt they got beat. They were embarrassed, I recall hearing the media commentators alluding to it during the week after the game.
4) This was one of those games where the score was not indicative of the performance difference between the two teams. oop happens!

I see the second game as having little to do with luck (we didn't have any last year) and everything to do with our team playing at its full capability, which didn't happen often last year. The Patriots were not complacent; they just had their *** handed to them by the Dolphins. Remember, we did this with Cutler as QB with 2 broken ribs. How complacent would they have to have been to lose? Probably lying down on the ground before each play if the Cutler haters on this board are right!

Great points Ray R.

I'd just like to add that if it happens once, it's easily an outlier. But looking at how few games the Patriots lose in the division, and how well they know the division, it's worth noting that with the exception of Rex Ryan, the only real threat the Patriots have faced in the division has been the Dolphins. The Jet's get beat almost every time without Ryan. The Bills also lose consistently. It's been the Dolphins that have even shown a pulse. If we had beaten them once in the last 5 years, sure … but that's not the case. We've beaten them multiple times in that period and the Patriots know it and prepare for us. The Patriots lost because the Dolphins beat them. Not because of a fluke or lack of knowledge or something. The only time we can say that was the Wildcat game. But I think it is just as easy to say that the refs have decided games in favor of the Patriots more often than we've gotten lucky.

The reality is that Ray R is right. The Patriots go into their games against us knowing they can lose and that they need to be prepared. They Patriots are well known throughout the league for not taking their foot off the gas. The Patriots lost because they were beaten … and it's not the first time we've beaten them.

 

[JahnDho]

I've never been a big Parker fan. Took a lot of heat the beginning of last year for pointing out some obvious flaws in his game. So I'm not arguing anything for Parker other than what he is.

I'm simply saying that Miami isn't going to be hurting from the loss of Landry nearly as much as you stated. And my wager would simply be this: passing yards gained from WRs, TEs, and backs will be greater in 2018 than 2017. Just keep it simple. And I'll wager you straight up 100 bucks, just for fun -- and the mods can determine the winner.

And, 4th and 4 -- or 3rd and 4 -- Miami is gonna have multiple options they didn't have last year. Parker is only so good on 4th and 4. Surprisely weak on non-rhythm jumps, slow off LOS and in and out of breaks, easily clogged on short slants. Wouldn't be my top three. I'm looking Gesicki (body and leaping ability, range and positioning) or Wilson (quickness) or Amendola (zone killer who will read the D perfectly) or Grant (speed and quicks to catch a 2 yard pass and make one person miss). Yes, missing Landry hurts. But there are some serious pros who will step up.

LD

If you can figure out a fair way to factor in RT then I’ll take that bet. I think we both agree RT will out produce Cutler/Moore.

 

[dirkey]

I think we see the same thing but are emphasizing the polar opposite aspects of what we saw.

You point out we lost the first game to the Patriots and won the second game. I agree
You say the beating we got in the first game was worse then the beating we gave them in the second game. Maybe, but what about the teams internal functions in those two games?
The Patriots were without Gronk in the second game which reduced their capabilities. Looking good for your position so far.
Keep in mind that a second meeting in a season has both teams with better information about each other. This implies that the second game should be a closer contest.

In my opinion, in the second game we:
1) Outcoached them plain and simple. They were caught out of position too many times for it to have been anything else. Not lightning in a bottle although it may have looked that way.
2) Our players played at a higher level then the first game, especially our QB and OL. Not lightning in a bottle although it may have looked that way.
3) The response to this game by the Patriots for the rest of the year says something about how bad they felt they got beat. They were embarrassed, I recall hearing the media commentators alluding to it during the week after the game.
4) This was one of those games where the score was not indicative of the performance difference between the two teams. oop happens!

I see the second game as having little to do with luck (we didn't have any last year) and everything to do with our team playing at its full capability, which didn't happen often last year. The Patriots were not complacent; they just had their *** handed to them by the Dolphins. Remember, we did this with Cutler as QB with 2 broken ribs. How complacent would they have to have been to lose? Probably lying down on the ground before each play if the Cutler haters on this board are right!

Maybe you're right, maybe it wasn't lightning in a bottle. Regardless, in my opinion you're still reading too much into it. Without looking up the results, it feels to me like fins have split with pats for past 5 years or so. Why weren't those wins a changing of the guard? Any given Sunday. As someone else pointed out, we beat the .. Then lost 3 in a row. They lost to us .. Then went to Superbowl. Doesn't sound like a recipe for them being on the decline and us ascending.

 

[dirkey]

Great points Ray R.

I'd just like to add that if it happens once, it's easily an outlier. But looking at how few games the Patriots lose in the division, and how well they know the division, it's worth noting that with the exception of Rex Ryan, the only real threat the Patriots have faced in the division has been the Dolphins. The Jet's get beat almost every time without Ryan. The Bills also lose consistently. It's been the Dolphins that have even shown a pulse. If we had beaten them once in the last 5 years, sure … but that's not the case. We've beaten them multiple times in that period and the Patriots know it and prepare for us. The Patriots lost because the Dolphins beat them. Not because of a fluke or lack of knowledge or something. The only time we can say that was the Wildcat game. But I think it is just as easy to say that the refs have decided games in favor of the Patriots more often than we've gotten lucky.

The reality is that Ray R is right. The Patriots go into their games against us knowing they can lose and that they need to be prepared. They Patriots are well known throughout the league for not taking their foot off the gas. The Patriots lost because they were beaten … and it's not the first time we've beaten them.

The piece I disagree with, about what Ray says, is that our win last year is somehow proof of us ascending into a Dynasty, and they down from one. Maybe I'm wrong, it just seems like reading way too much into one result.

 

[Ray R]

The piece I disagree with, about what Ray says, is that our win last year is somehow proof of us ascending into a Dynasty, and they down from one. Maybe I'm wrong, it just seems like reading way too much into one result.

At this point in the year there is no right or wrong, just fans opinions.

 

[dirkey]

At this point in the year there is no right or wrong, just fans opinions.

I guess what I should say, is I hope your opinions and optimism are right!! God it'd be fun to be a feared team for a few years.

 

[Shoes]

Yeah... but if you go back to my original post in regards to the actual subject, my comment makes a lot more sense. We're all rooting for the same team here, but if you haven't noticed an insane level of unfounded optimism for a perennially mediocre team then I really don't know what to tell you.

Every team is undefeated and I'm glad to be on the side of optimism and not pessimism.

 

[Superself]

ok good post. But you can easily swap him out for Julian Edleman as another slot receiver that has strongly contributed to getting to the super bowl.

I'm not buying that any wr's contribution was the reason that any team won a super bowl. WRs are not the reason any team makes it. The QB, coach, defense, special teams, etc. have heavier burdens than any WR.

Over confident is you all thinking this is a 10 plus win team with age concerns (young and old) holes, avg talent, and little high end talent on this roster.

I’m just arrogant about being practical. Apply the above to any game when compared to better players and you’ll be average.

You predict 8 wins. Many have predicted 10 wins.

That is a TWO GAME DIFFERENCE.

Be more practical.

 

[JahnDho]

You predict 8 wins. Many have predicted 10 wins.

That is a TWO GAME DIFFERENCE.

Be more practical.

‍They’re not a playoff team. 10-6 suggests they’re really good. I suggest they’re mediocre.

 

[JahnDho]

I'm not buying that any wr's contribution was the reason that any team won a super bowl. WRs are not the reason any team makes it. The QB, coach, defense, special teams, etc. have heavier burdens than any WR.

WR position is considered one of the top 10 most important positions. Google it. As high as 7th. That’s out of all positions on offense, defense and special teams.