The Miami Dolphins Are A 10 Win Team And Here Is Why

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by DKphin, Jul 3, 2018.

  1. JahnDho

    JahnDho Well-Known Member

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    I get that you’re saying Amendola/Wilson will fill in and the offense will run just as well. But it doesn’t mean Landry won’t be missed. RTs impact can be heightened by Landry or worsened by Amendola/Wilson. Not sure how to measure the difference in offensive production with different variables. Will either have as good yac? Because Landry was one of the top WRs in that statistic. Will either score 9 TDs? As many catches, first downs or combined yards? I’d be willing to bet those two players combined don’t replace Landry’s 2017 stats.

    Parker, Stills and Drake will be RTs 3 most productive targets. I realize the expectation is that combined, all their weapons will cover what Landry et al did last year. However, while you say they’re more well rounded, I say they’re more diluted.
     
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2018 at 12:33 AM
  2. fin415

    fin415 Not a slot receiver Finheaven VIP

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    Actually, I think you are missing the point. You have been seduced by his physical talent and value it more than team fit and following the game plan.

    JA is a physically talented back. But great, not a chance. Great backs are team players. Great backs produce every year (at least when their not injured). He had one break out season where everything lined up for him -- and he made it work and the team was the better for it. But where the hell was this super star you keep telling us about in 2017 when we needed him even more than in 2016?
     
  3. JahnDho

    JahnDho Well-Known Member

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    In 2016 they ran the running game through JA and along his strengths. In 2017, Gase tried to run JA through his own system and along others strengths. Which is what I assume is part of your point. So of course his “super star” level of play didn’t show up in the box scores in 2017. Drake fits Gase’s system much more. On a side note, I’m not sure why Gase thinks Jesse Davis AKA, the behemoth, is good for his outside zone run blocking system but I’m pretty sure it’s the best he has at the moment. Anyway, Gase is a year away from having enough of “his” guys to really flourish. Meanwhile, JA’s “poor attitude” in MIA will continue to look like a winning attitude in Philly. I’ve been around a few of these personality traits. When we’re winning, they’re very easy to work with and a huge part of it all. When we’re losing, they can be a PITA.
     
  4. The Goat

    The Goat Escape Goat Finheaven VIP

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    That’s the thing, really. If there’s that much of a crazy amount of optimism this year, maybe look at why. Maybe it isn’t all that unfounded. Sure, there are a lot of variables. And sure, it’s July. And yes, the loss of Suh worries the heck out of me. But (and I’ve been saying this over and over, like a mantra), the Fins weren’t just the unluckiest team in the league last year; they were one of the unluckiest teams I’ve ever seen. And I fully believe in the “make your own luck” thinking, but that doesn’t account for hurricanes. If just HALF of the things that went wrong last year DON’T this year? This will likely be a much brighter year. Add to that a healthy Tannehill, a likely better LB corps, a likely better D backfield, a likely better O-line, better and healthier DEs, no crazy road trip, likely rookie starting QBs in New York and Buffalo, and what looks like a fairly easy first half schedule? There’s a legit reason to think this team can easily do better than the national media give credit for. Second worst team in the league my ***.

    It’s easy to just say, “same old Dolphins fans, getting their hopes up every offseason.” But if you don’t look at what’s going on here and say “okay, maybe there’s some justification for this,” then I really don’t know what to tell you.
     
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  5. JahnDho

    JahnDho Well-Known Member

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    Ok stop... every year there is a crazy amount of optimism, why? You should have led with this and just stopped there...Because the fanatics have a crazy amount of optimism. They’re not always wrong, but they’re not right either; just lucky. With some wisdom, experience, open mindedness and foresight, you too can be a normal fan. It’s easy to get lost in the hype and optimism of local media, coaches and fans. Of course Gase is in praise, hope and positivity mode. Then fans justify it with all of the positives and take it to the playoffs; just like this article did.
     
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2018 at 8:00 AM
  6. jnozag

    jnozag Well-Known Member

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    stuck behind a **** offensive line in a 1 dimensional offense with Jay Cutler. He did well in Philly. Yes, Drake played well after Jay left, but only for six games and his career high in rushing yards is 120. Still a lot to prove before we can easily say Jay won't be missed.
     
  7. fin415

    fin415 Not a slot receiver Finheaven VIP

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    Either he's the great back you keep telling us we should have kept which means that bad line and worse QB shouldn't have held him back and much as it did or he isn't/wasn't that great back and was replaceable.

    You seem to want it both ways
     
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  8. rent this space

    rent this space Starter Finheaven VIP

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    He did well in space last year, not sure why you think he isn't. Also, he is tall but at 325 he isn't even the heaviest guard and within 5lbs of Sitton and Larsen
     
  9. dirkey

    dirkey FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Yep, exactly - that's part of why I think that saying the NE game last year was the turning point is a bit ... ambitious. Hopefully @Ray R will be proven right though, I'm on record as loving his optimism!! He reminds me of me a couple of years ago, when I was an earnest Dolphins fan, before I became a weather beaten Dolphins fan.

    It's clearly a fact that age will catch up with B&B alright. I think naturally it'll be sooner for Brady, what with the fact his job is a physical job. Though maybe Belichick would decide to go at the same time, keep the legacy in tact - who knows?
     
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  10. Ray R

    Ray R FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    My view of dynasty's is that they don't occur over night; there is no window to get through; only a grinding ascendancy to become "king of the hill" with an equally grinding maintenance required to stay "king of the hill".

    You can become "king of the hill" with a group of great players, but as their performance wans, the position of "king of the hill" slips away. You can become "king of the hill" with a group of good players and a few great players if you continually upgrade and maintain a group of good players and the great players you can stay "king of the hill" for a long time. Eventually a team will come along that will have your number due to more inventive play calling and/or more "across the board" play capability.

    I'm sure you can see the part of that description that represent the Patriots. I think a lot of people miss seeing the Dolphins as the team with "more inventive play calling and/or more "across the board" play capability". This is where our beating the patriots last year comes in. It is a one game microcosm of what I see as the direction these two teams are going in, with regard to each other.

    Dynasty's get built and are developed over time. If I wasn't clear before I'll try to be clear now. We, the fans, are in a position to see a dynasty develop. It's easy to identify a dynasty after it has developed, but we are in a position to observe the actual ascendancy of a Dolphins dynasty.

    We have all the pieces in place. A good owner, a functional and well coordinated front office; at least over the last 3 years since Gase arrived, and a head coach with a comprehensive plan for winning and who never quits. It was no surprise that something like six other teams wanted him the year he came to Miami. He has brought in effective coaching talent over the last three years by keeping the good coaching that was already here and getting both new and experienced coaches to come here.

    As for players; we are beginning to see the ***ulative results of some consistently good drafting the last 3 years in all rounds and with undrafted free agents. We have used the free agent market to our advantage for stop gap improvements. We showed an unexpected level of performance as a team and in the front office in Gases first year as our head coach. Problems with some of our better players were identified and addressed with resulting player improvement. Last year we emerged from a hellish series of uncontrollable disasters with some of our younger players performing well and problematic players exposed and eventually released. Last year was the year that "tempered" our team.

    I believe this season will be a breakout year for the team. Even if it does not turn out to be the breakout year I envision, it looks like we will be a better across the board this year than the last two and demonstrate improvement.

    We've improved as a team this year at all levels: on the field and coaching and in the performance of our management. I am happiest with the depth we now have on this team. Sometimes when we use a position by position analysis to determine what a teams performance will be, we miss the value of the player and position interactions that are necessary for plays to function. When we step back and look at the entire team and how it works as a unit we get a better picture of what we can expect to see on the field. I see a dynasty in the making, "one that is just getting over the hump" and is about to become a consistent contender for playoff berths and the Superbowl.
     
  11. The Ghost

    The Ghost Stamos

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    The whole post was great but I wanted to single out those lines.

    At the end of the day, the Dolphins are better almost across the entire roster. We are talking about our defensive backfield being on par with the best groups in the league. We look at our offensive skill position players and see the plethora of diverse weaponry our franchise QB will finally have at his disposal.

    You got Frank Gore mentoring guys for peanuts when you had Suh not willing to do it for $20 mill a year.

    The pieces are in place.

    I will miss you know who a lot. Cody Parkey ofcourse.
     
  12. fansinceGWilson

    fansinceGWilson FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    The only two units I see as possibly less talented are DT and K. A lot of that is predictions based on 'potential' and 'a year in the system.' There are people arguing, correctly, we can't know for sure, but that doesn't mean there is NO way of knowing. How many of us predicted Timmons and Maualuga would excel? Not many. How many predicted X and Drake would do well? How many thought Cutler would lead Miami to the playoffs? None of those were locks, but there are some who are more likely to 'hit' than others. I still say Miami doesn't need ALL the pieces to meet potential - just about half. 10 wins? I'm cautious. I'm at 8 for reasons I won't bother to post again. If things go right more than I expect, 10 is possible. I see nothing less than 7.
     
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  13. Ray R

    Ray R FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I suppose its no surprise that I agree with you. I am sorry we lost Cody Parker, but I am happy for him. He earned his opportunity.

    I am even more happy we have demonstrated the player selection know how that brought him in house in the first place and were willing to exhibit some financial responsibility relative to the position (not the player). The fact that we actually drafted a replacement and went to an undrafted free agent for competition at this spot shows to me that the team values the position and based on our previous players at that position, know how to identify and select talent. This is the kind of "maintaining a group of good players" that I had been posting about.
     
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  14. JahnDho

    JahnDho Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for pointing this out. It’s gonna be a problem, not huge but enough to be a point of contention the next couple years. Drake isn’t known for being a patient runner behind the line. He’s a better RB in space than between the tackles. Runs to the outside when the hole isn’t there. Great hitting gaps quickly. I’m just saying it’s not a great fit, it’s gonna be a challenge and Gase has to know this. Gore may actually end up getting more carries than people think because of this.
     
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2018 at 2:28 PM
  15. The Ghost

    The Ghost Stamos

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    I am at work and rushed posting that. I was going to elude to Jarvis Landry more with that post, before making it known Parkey was the player I was going to miss.

    I believe in Adam Gase and Ryan Tannehill so needless to say I am extremely stoked about this coming season.

    Any coach willing to cut a talent like Suh, trade a fan favorite (not this fan) like Landry and basically tell his owner to STFU and be quiet if your going to sit in the war room, has what it takes to do this job to the fullest.
     
  16. The Ghost

    The Ghost Stamos

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    Damn, I quoted myself to see if Finheaven would somehow allow me to like my own post in reply. That's how much I believe in our current path.
     
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  17. Atila

    Atila Atila - the freshmaker. Finheaven VIP

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    But now we've come full circle... There is this level of optimism EVERY YEAR. Every year I hear we're going to win a minimum of 10 games. The year Gase signed on, there was PLENTY of clamor that we would be a 12 or 13 win team - just ridiculous... My original comment stands :)
     
  18. The Goat

    The Goat Escape Goat Finheaven VIP

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    I think it's entirely possible that both our memories might be a little biased.
     
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  19. Mach2

    Mach2 Active Member

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    There is plenty in the past to make ppl skeptical. We haven't had a consistently competitive team since the Wanny years. He had that deer in the headlights look on game day, but the teams were not dogs.

    Having said that, I think we are on the upturn, and am looking forward to the season.
     
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  20. BlueFin

    BlueFin Seer of Visions Finheaven VIP

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    The Dolphins are a sleeper team...to most...who don’t them intimately....they seem like a train wreck...bottom feeder.

    Fact is...if the young talent and Tannehill step up...this is an interesting team!
     
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  21. Digital

    Digital Starter Finheaven VIP

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    Great post Ray R!

    By window I simply mean that our team is not there yet talent-wise, while the Patriots are playing at a level that we cannot duplicate yet, IMHO. Belichick is the secret sauce in my opinion. He is a HoF defensive coordinator that is building a good defense specifically to slow down the top offenses and create turnovers. Then he has a finely tuned offense that exploits an exceptional QB who is super-precise. The Patriots score, and win the turnover battle. Belichick turned the Browns into a winner, but his tenure was cut short by Model moving the franchise to Baltimore. Since Belichick has build New England, they have been a dynasty. Yes, Brady has been a cornerstone of that building process, but Belichick has grown as a coach as well.

    To be a dynasty, you must dominate your division. Until the Patriots start to show some weaknesses, I don't see us dominating this division. But the time is coming. IMHO, that is our window.

    I agree with you whole-heartedly Ray, we are in position to see a dynasty develop. I also believe in Gase. I definitely see true cornerstone pieces like Tannehill, Gesicki, Fitzpatrick, Howard, and McMillan. We can build a dynasty on players like that. They have the talent, time, and work ethic to do it.
     
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  22. Ray R

    Ray R FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Your points on Belichick are dead on.

    In my experience, his performance is only somewhat equaled by Paul Brown's performance as a coach and owner during the early 1950's. The similarities are the effectiveness of their coaching capabilities and their control of the payroll. You may be right on the time table for a "changing of the guard". I am a little anxious for us to be winning, but from my perspective, we are so close I can almost taste it.

    I want to add how nice it is to be able to talk about this stuff on this forum with knowledgeable fans who don't go over board much more often than I do. It has made the summer doldrums tolerable and the past playing seasons much more enjoyable. I will be living in the sports bars this fall. Not an easy thing to do when your favorite beverage is diet mountain dew. I can't believe how many brews my friends can drink - period. The carbonation of the stuff I drink is a real limiting factor. As I look back at what I have just written I become more aware of how desperate I am for football to start.
     
  23. Digital

    Digital Starter Finheaven VIP

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    Believe me when I say we posters really enjoy reading your analysis and powerful support of our team. At the end of the day, we're all Dolphins fans … which is short for fanatics … so we're all hoping to share in that belief and celebration of our team. Your analysis, positivity and passion are huge reasons why its so much fun to be on finheaven.

    Sure, toward the end of a poor season, we may start the draft and free agency talk a little early, but when we legitimately have more talent than most of our division, now is the time to be excited! IMHO, we're clearly more talented and better coached than the Jets and Bills. Why not get pumped for Tannehill's return? After all, losing him cost us 4 games in the season record, so there is every reason to believe that his return--now fully versed in the playbook--will translate into at least 4 more wins. We lost a DT and a Slot receiver, but improved at QB, TE1, TE2, LG, 3rd down RB, offensive speed, offensive size, seam threat, red zone targets, DE, MLB, CB, FS, coverage LB, and CB depth. If we look at Tannehill's return as the 4 game swing, how can we not view all the rest of that as an improvement over losing one DT and one Slot receiver? IMHO, it's a no brainer, this team is not only better than the 2017 team by a lot, but it is also better than the 2016 team as well, and it does not need to go 1-4 in the first 5 games to figure out the schemes.

    Yeah, we're much better than the craptastic performances of last year.
     
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  24. LDaniel7

    LDaniel7 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Excellent take.

    And we may have even improved at slot WR. Wilson is no slouch. Love that pick up. Amendola is a guaranteed read. Grant is lightning in a bottle. And Stills, if he moves in there on said play, is quality.

    LD
     
  25. jtoomuch

    jtoomuch Apalled and aghast Donator

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    I think Drake may prove to be better than you think, maybe a top ten back. RT was looking good before the injury. If he can actually pick up where he left off we can have a good offense, lots of weapons. IF RT stays healthy I could see 9 or 10 wins.
     
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  26. djphinfan

    djphinfan Perennial All-Pro

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    Why would Gase, lessen the load of a player who led the NFL in rushing and yards after contact over the last quarter of last season, a player who can pass protect and be flexed out because of his dexterity and receiving ability?
     
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  27. JahnDho

    JahnDho Well-Known Member

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    All true, but Gore is a HOF quality RB. His ability to make adjustments and turn a negative play into a positive is a valuable asset against a D with 8 in the box. The strength of this o-line In run blocking will be between the tackles. If he proves to be more valuable on 1st and 2nd down, or designed running plays between the tackles, then Gore should get these carries. If Miami is ahead and they’re trying to control the clock; they’re not running too many outside zone plays.

    On the other hand, Drake is the more dangerous weapon of the two. His upside is scary. He should be in early and often. He should be in when playing from behind. He can be a difference maker; cracking a big play when they’re playing tight football or need a spark.

    The more I understand these players strengths and weaknesses, the more the pieces come together. And it’s starting to look like Gore and Drake May see a similar number of snaps.
     
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2018 at 7:14 AM
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  28. Superself

    Superself If you want to, we can supply you.

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    Perhaps you are right.

    Weeks 8-11 after Ajayi was traded away, both Williams and Drake saw similar snap counts.

    Damien Williams
    Week, snap count
    8, 30
    9, 31
    10, 27
    11, 24
    Kenyan Drake
    Week, snap count
    8, 37
    9, 25
    10, 38
    11, 25

    Interestingly enough they lost all of those games. So maybe the sweet spot is 60% Drake?
     
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  29. djphinfan

    djphinfan Perennial All-Pro

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    Respect your take, I just simply don’t see them getting close to equal carries, one is a young vet just approaching his prime, a player that can play all three downs very well, the other is yes a hall of fame vet, but’s he’s 36 years old..

    It comes down to who is the biggest threat from all over the field, right now there is no comparison, no disrespect to Gore...Gore can’t flex out and run a 9 route for 6..Gore can’t avoid an untouched defender in the gap, execute a perfect spin move and have the speed to House it..

    I can see drake spelling him on a few series a game, but It should be mandatory in this offense that he touches the ball 25 times a game..you have the best chances to score and gain chunk yardage if you can do that.
     
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  30. nick1

    nick1 I am Groot Moderator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Or maybe the QB has to compliment the run. Need a better QB then Cutler
     
  31. finmann

    finmann Pro Bowler

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    The key to everything is QB play, no more no less.
     
  32. JahnDho

    JahnDho Well-Known Member

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    This was my original take too. But if I’m right, watch, fans will be banging their head clamoring for more Drake because Gore is only getting 1-3 yards on a regular basis between the tackles. Even if he averages 4, the perception will be that they’re not being most effective with their personnel. But the logic will be that Gore getting those 1-3 yard carries would be better than Drake losing a yard because he’s trying to make something happen with his skill set.
     
  33. dougb123

    dougb123 Active Member

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    Here are some highlights for you from the last 3 or 4 years, watch him run thru the Dolphins at about the 2:50 to 3:30 mark for 4 or 5 TD's doing this all behind Indy's O-line when it was crap...



    Gore is only getting 1-3 yards - give me a break!!!!

    Was an excellent pickup to pair with Drake - should be an excellent teacher to Drake who still appears at this stage, a little bit like a noob with unbelievable potential.

    Were still a passing team so don't expect it to be 50-50 more like 65-70% pass, even if a lot more of those passes are going to RB's.
     
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  34. Jonathan Shaw

    Jonathan Shaw Active Member

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    Love it. Drake will definitely be a help this year with his strength (if he doesn't fumble) and having a vet such as Frank Gore with him will be a big big help in improving his game.
     
  35. Digital

    Digital Starter Finheaven VIP

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    If Gase is wise, he will be using a running back by committee. Drake's collegiate history was not one of durability, and he's been injured in the pros as well, so I cannot see him becoming a bell-cow back.

    JahnDho's point about how Gore should see increased snaps when we are protecting a lead, and Drake should see increased snaps when we're playing from behind, will likely change their snap counts on a game by game basis. But overall, Gase will want to get two things: 1) Lots of touches for Drake to generate chunk plays and defensive focus, and 2) Enough snaps for Gore to keep Drake fresh and healthy. I'm expecting Ballage to get the lion's share of the 3rd down snaps, lessening the load for both Gore and Drake.

    While there is likely a snap-count target for each back, I think situational football and switching backs to keep the defense off kilter (and the RB's fresh) should be the overriding factor on a game by game basis. My worry is that we have 3 rather specific backs, and if any one of them gets injured--which is almost surely going to happen to at least one of them--the entire scheme gets thrown off. IMHO, that makes us a bit fragile at the RB position … kinda like 'we're only as strong as our weakest link' sort of thing. I'm hoping our RB's can adapt and handle that kind of adversity.
     
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  36. Mach2

    Mach2 Active Member

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    I don't see Ballage being a major contributor barring injury. Most mid to lower round rookie backs have to prove they can handle pass pro responsibility.

    I'm sure he get some opportunities, but asking him to be the third down back, with all that goes into it, is asking a lot. I'm thinking next year for him.
     
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  37. Digital

    Digital Starter Finheaven VIP

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    You make a very good point about pass pro. But, that is the exact skillset that got Ballage drafted, so he is likely being targeted for a 3rd down pass pro/receiving role and becoming a core special teamer.
     
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