The Myth of Continuity

[SkapePhin]

Stephen Ross is a big fan of continuity, as if it's the only way success can ever be achieved. I see many people on this forum buying into this myth as well. But there is one crucial element that they fail to take into account. Continuity with the WRONG regime doesn't end in success, it ends in wasted time.

Continuity only works if you have actual talented people running the operation.

If we measure 4 seasons with a coaching staff as being "continuity", let's see how that has worked out with clearly out-classed headcoaches... It doesn't end with sustained winning, it ends with "fired midseason"

Continuity with Dave Wannstedt:

Year Age Tm Lg G W L T W-L% Notes
1993 41 Chicago Bears NFL 16 7 9 0 .438
1994 42 Chicago Bears NFL 16 9 7 0 .563
1995 43 Chicago Bears NFL 16 9 7 0 .563
1996 44 Chicago Bears NFL 16 7 9 0 .438
1997 45 Chicago Bears NFL 16 4 12 0 .250
1998 46 Chicago Bears NFL 16 4 12 0 .250
2000 48 Miami Dolphins NFL 16 11 5 0 .688
2001 49 Miami Dolphins NFL 16 11 5 0 .688
2002 50 Miami Dolphins NFL 16 9 7 0 .563
2003 51 Miami Dolphins NFL 16 10 6 0 .625
2004 52 Miami Dolphins NFL 9 1 8 0 .111 Fired after week 9
11 yrs 169 82 87 0 .485
6 yrs CHI 96 40 56 0 .417
5 yrs MIA 73 42 31 0 .575


Continuity with Tony Sparano:

Year Age Tm Lg G W L T W-L% Notes
2008 47 Miami Dolphins NFL 16 11 5 0 .688
2009 48 Miami Dolphins NFL 16 7 9 0 .438
2010 49 Miami Dolphins NFL 16 7 9 0 .438
2011 50 Miami Dolphins NFL 13 4 9 0 .308 Fired after week 14
2014 53 Oakland Raiders NFL 8 3 5 0 .375
5 yrs 69 32 37 0 .464
4 yrs MIA 61 29 32 0 .475
1 yr OAK 8 3 5 0 .375

Continuity with Wade Phillips:

Year Age Tm Lg G W L T W-L% Notes
1985 38 New Orleans Saints NFL 4 1 3 0 .250
1993 46 Denver Broncos NFL 16 9 7 0 .563
1994 47 Denver Broncos NFL 16 7 9 0 .438
1998 51 Buffalo Bills NFL 16 10 6 0 .625
1999 52 Buffalo Bills NFL 16 11 5 0 .688
2000 53 Buffalo Bills NFL 16 8 8 0 .500
2003 56 Atlanta Falcons NFL 3 2 1 0 .667 Coach starting week 15
2007 60 Dallas Cowboys NFL 16 13 3 0 .813
2008 61 Dallas Cowboys NFL 16 9 7 0 .563
2009 62 Dallas Cowboys NFL 16 11 5 0 .688
2010 63 Dallas Cowboys NFL 8 1 7 0 .125 Fired after Week 9
2013 66 Houston Texans NFL 3 0 3 0 .000
12 yrs 146 82 64 0 .562
4 yrs DAL 56 34 22 0 .607
3 yrs BUF 48 29 19 0 .604
2 yrs DEN 32 16 16 0 .500
1 yr ATL 3 2 1 0 .667
1 yr HOU 3 0 3 0 .000
1 yr NOR 4 1 3 0 .250


Continuity with Norv Turner:

Year Age Tm Lg G W L T W-L% Notes
1994 42 Washington Redskins NFL 16 3 13 0 .188
1995 43 Washington Redskins NFL 16 6 10 0 .375
1996 44 Washington Redskins NFL 16 9 7 0 .563
1997 45 Washington Redskins NFL 16 8 7 1 .533
1998 46 Washington Redskins NFL 16 6 10 0 .375
1999 47 Washington Redskins NFL 16 10 6 0 .625
2000 48 Washington Redskins NFL 13 7 6 0 .538 Fired after week 14
2004 52 Oakland Raiders NFL 16 5 11 0 .313
2005 53 Oakland Raiders NFL 16 4 12 0 .250
2007 55 San Diego Chargers NFL 16 11 5 0 .688
2008 56 San Diego Chargers NFL 16 8 8 0 .500
2009 57 San Diego Chargers NFL 16 13 3 0 .813
2010 58 San Diego Chargers NFL 16 9 7 0 .563
2011 59 San Diego Chargers NFL 16 8 8 0 .500
2012 60 San Diego Chargers NFL 16 7 9 0 .438
15 yrs 237 114 122 1 .483
7 yrs WAS 109 49 59 1 .454
6 yrs SDG 96 56 40 0 .583
2 yrs OAK 32 9 23 0 .281


Continuity with Brad Childress:

Year Age Tm Lg G W L T W-L% Notes
2006 50 Minnesota Vikings NFL 16 6 10 0 .375
2007 51 Minnesota Vikings NFL 16 8 8 0 .500
2008 52 Minnesota Vikings NFL 16 10 6 0 .625
2009 53 Minnesota Vikings NFL 16 12 4 0 .750
2010 54 Minnesota Vikings NFL 10 3 7 0 .300 Fired after Week 11
5 yrs 74 39 35 0 .527


Continuity with Herm Edwards:

Year Age Tm Lg G W L T W-L% Notes
2001 47 New York Jets NFL 16 10 6 0 .625
2002 48 New York Jets NFL 16 9 7 0 .563
2003 49 New York Jets NFL 16 6 10 0 .375
2004 50 New York Jets NFL 16 10 6 0 .625
2005 51 New York Jets NFL 16 4 12 0 .250
2006 52 Kansas City Chiefs NFL 16 9 7 0 .563
2007 53 Kansas City Chiefs NFL 16 4 12 0 .250
2008 54 Kansas City Chiefs NFL 16 2 14 0 .125
8 yrs 128 54 74 0 .422
5 yrs NYJ 80 39 41 0 .488
3 yrs KAN 48 15 33 0 .313


Hmmmm, I wonder where continuity with Joe Philbin will lead us!!

Year Age Tm Lg G W L T W-L%
2012 Miami Dolphins NFL 16 7 9 0 .438
2013 Miami Dolphins NFL 16 8 8 0 .500
2014 Miami Dolphins NFL 16 8 8 0 .500
3 yrs 48 23 25 0 .479

I bet if we look on pro-football-reference.com in a few years, under "2015" in the notes for Joe Philbin it will read "fired week 14".

 

[nyjunc]

I bet Steeler fans wanted Bill Cowher fired in the late 90s

I KNOW Giant fans wanted Tom Coughlin fired before 2007 AND before 2011.

 

[SkapePhin]

I bet Steeler fans wanted Bill Cowher fired in the late 90s

I KNOW Giant fans wanted Tom Coughlin fired before 2007 AND before 2011.

You can't be serious.. The fans have been, but their careers aren't even comparable to the crap I posted above that ties most closely to Philbin's trajectory...

Cowher consistently led the Steelers to the playoffs starting Year 1! I would give my left nut for a coach that could go 1 and done in the playoffs year-in and year-out at this point...

<PRE>
Chal
Year Age Tm Lg G W L T W-L% G plyf W plyf L plyf W-L% Rank Num Won Notes
1992 35 Pittsburgh Steelers NFL 16 11 5 0 .688 1 0 1 .000 1
1993 36 Pittsburgh Steelers NFL 16 9 7 0 .563 1 0 1 .000 2
1994 37 Pittsburgh Steelers NFL 16 12 4 0 .750 2 1 1 .500 1
1995 38 Pittsburgh Steelers NFL 16 11 5 0 .688 3 2 1 .667 1 AFC Champions
1996 39 Pittsburgh Steelers NFL 16 10 6 0 .625 2 1 1 .500 1
1997 40 Pittsburgh Steelers NFL 16 11 5 0 .688 2 1 1 .500 1
1998 41 Pittsburgh Steelers NFL 16 7 9 0 .438 3
1999 42 Pittsburgh Steelers NFL 16 6 10 0 .375 4 2 0
2000 43 Pittsburgh Steelers NFL 16 9 7 0 .563 3 7 4
2001 44 Pittsburgh Steelers NFL 16 13 3 0 .813 2 1 1 .500 1 6 3
2002 45 Pittsburgh Steelers NFL 16 10 5 1 .667 2 1 1 .500 1 10 6
2003 46 Pittsburgh Steelers NFL 16 6 10 0 .375 3 5 0
2004 47 Pittsburgh Steelers NFL 16 15 1 0 .938 2 1 1 .500 1 9 3
2005 48 Pittsburgh Steelers NFL 16 11 5 0 .688 4 4 0 1.000 2 9 6 Super Bowl Champions
2006 49 Pittsburgh Steelers NFL 16 8 8 0 .500 3 11 5
15 yrs 240 149 90 1 .623 21 12 9 .571 1.9 59 27
</PRE>


And Coughlin had an established history of success, leading the expansion Jaguars to the AFC Championship Game in his 2nd year... He also led the Giants to the playoffs in his 2nd year...

Chal
Year Age Tm Lg G W L T W-L% G plyf W plyf L plyf W-L% Rank Num Won Notes
1995 49 Jacksonville Jaguars NFL 16 4 12 0 .250 5
1996 50 Jacksonville Jaguars NFL 16 9 7 0 .563 3 2 1 .667 2
1997 51 Jacksonville Jaguars NFL 16 11 5 0 .688 1 0 1 .000 2
1998 52 Jacksonville Jaguars NFL 16 11 5 0 .688 2 1 1 .500 1
1999 53 Jacksonville Jaguars NFL 16 14 2 0 .875 2 1 1 .500 1 2 1
2000 54 Jacksonville Jaguars NFL 16 7 9 0 .438 4 7 6
2001 55 Jacksonville Jaguars NFL 16 6 10 0 .375 5 5 1
2002 56 Jacksonville Jaguars NFL 16 6 10 0 .375 3 2 1
2004 58 New York Giants NFL 16 6 10 0 .375 2 9 4
2005 59 New York Giants NFL 16 11 5 0 .688 1 0 1 .000 1 9 2
2006 60 New York Giants NFL 16 8 8 0 .500 1 0 1 .000 3 12 6
2007 61 New York Giants NFL 16 10 6 0 .625 4 4 0 1.000 2 10 4 Super Bowl Champions
2008 62 New York Giants NFL 16 12 4 0 .750 1 0 1 .000 1 9 6
2009 63 New York Giants NFL 16 8 8 0 .500 3 5 2
2010 64 New York Giants NFL 16 10 6 0 .625 2 12 7
2011 65 New York Giants NFL 16 9 7 0 .563 4 4 0 1.000 1 12 4 Super Bowl Champions
2012 66 New York Giants NFL 16 9 7 0 .563 2 3 1
2013 67 New York Giants NFL 16 7 9 0 .438 3 5 4
2014 68 New York Giants NFL 16 6 10 0 .375 3 4 2
19 yrs 304 164 140 0 .539 19 12 7 .632 2.4 106 51
11 yrs NYG 176 96 80 0 .545 11 8 3 .727 2.1 90 42
8 yrs JAX 128 68 60 0 .531 8 4 4 .500 2.9 16 9

 

[nyjunc]

People thought Cowher could never get Pitt over the hump. after that SB app in '05 lost in div rd in '06 and at home in title game in '07 them missed 3 straight postseasons, got back to playoffs again losing title game at home, then lost in div rd then went 6-10.

Coughlin had losing records his last 3 years in Jax and 1st year in NY. next year won div title but got shutout in WC rd then went 8-8. Giant fans wanted him out especially after starting poorly in 2007. Post 2007 SB season won div in '08 and again was 1 and done in playoffs, missed playoffs in 2009 and 2010 and giant fans wanted him out. then started slowly in 2011.

 

[dolpns13]

And you think thats a worse trajectory than the data that was originally posted? :rolleyes2:

People thought Cowher could never get Pitt over the hump. after that SB app in '05 lost in div rd in '06 and at home in title game in '07 them missed 3 straight postseasons, got back to playoffs again losing title game at home, then lost in div rd then went 6-10.

Coughlin had losing records his last 3 years in Jax and 1st year in NY. next year won div title but got shutout in WC rd then went 8-8. Giant fans wanted him out especially after starting poorly in 2007. Post 2007 SB season won div in '08 and again was 1 and done in playoffs, missed playoffs in 2009 and 2010 and giant fans wanted him out. then started slowly in 2011.

 

[Roman529]

Yeah but stable organizations seem to always be in the mix to win Superbowls....New England, Green Bay, the Steelers, the Giants.

I think Seattle could become the next Dynasty because their owner Paul Allen and Coach Pete Carroll compliment each other and work with their GM to get the right mix of players. I think most of their guys are home grown and not free agents.

 

[SkapePhin]

Yeah but stable organizations seem to always be in the mix to win Superbowls....New England, Green Bay, the Steelers, the Giants.

I think Seattle could become the next Dynasty because their owner Paul Allen and Coach Pete Carroll compliment each other and work with their GM to get the right mix of players. I think most of their guys are home grown and not free agents.

Those organizations are stable because they have the right people in place... Show me a "stable" organization with a crap coach at the top?

The only one that even comes to mind is the Bengals...

 

[Roman529]

Those organizations are stable because they have the right people in place... Show me a "stable" organization with a crap coach at the top?

The only one that even comes to mind is the Bengals...

If you look at the Phins they had Joe Robbie and Shula in place every year during the glory years.....but I think Shula didn't compliment the offense by keeping Olivadotti around. Marino was forced to win by outscoring the opposing team with an average D and no running game. That's why I think Seattle could be great for years...they are great on both sides of the ball.

 

[nyjunc]

I am not saying keep Philbin or fire him, just pointing out that continuity does work sometimes. unless you have an elite QB teams tend to go up and down.

 

[spiketex]

People thought that the Giants were going absolutely nowhere with Tom Coughlin until he won 2 Super Bowls and that was with Eli.

 

[nyjunc]

People thought that the Giants were going absolutely nowhere with Tom Coughlin until he won 2 Super Bowls and that was with Eli.

the fans and media wanted BOTH Coughling and Eli gone before and during the 2007 season AND before/during the 2011 season.

 

[SkapePhin]

I am not saying keep Philbin or fire him, just pointing out that continuity does work sometimes. unless you have an elite QB teams tend to go up and down.

I think my original point went way over your head. Continuity doesn't work when you have an overmatched coach at the top... Coughlin and Cowher were perennial playoff coaches from the very start. Of course continuity with a coach that has demonstrated that ability will be successful in the long run.

But when you try continuity with a coach that struggles to lead a team to the playoffs 3 years in, it very rarely every works out.

 

[rent this space]

When you say "the myth of continuity", it sounds like you're saying it never works

 

[dolpns13]

I am not saying keep Philbin or fire him, just pointing out that continuity does work sometimes. unless you have an elite QB teams tend to go up and down.

So out of all those coaches mentioned, none of them started out their tenure with 4 straight non-winning seasons, and most of them went on to have unsuccessful coaching careers. If history tells us anything, it says that Phaibin will never be a successful HC. Damnit.

 

[Spesh]

So...i guess everyone who's throwing up objects is just skipping these points of the original post:

Continuity with the WRONG regime doesn't end in success, it ends in wasted time.

Continuity only works if you have actual talented people running the operation.

Also, big fan of the Tom Coughlin mentions. You know, the guy who got an expansion team to the AFC Championship game in his 2nd year. And i have it on good authority making the AFC Championship game is the pinnacle of football achievements. Clearly Coughlin had no talent whatsoever and New York just kept him because they were simply guessing he might turn out to be adequate(they totally forget they went 11-5 in 2005).