The Myth of the First Round QB

[Shouright]

I think the OP has a good concept, but I think the measure of performance should be more individual and less team. Winning playoff games and Super Bowls should be replaced by quarterback rating. Not that quarterback rating is completely individual, but that playoff and Super Bowl wins are too team.

The findings may still be the same, but it would be worth looking at IMO.

 

[ArmyFin7]

Where at? I spent some time at Phoenix and then out at Gardez.

I'll be home in about 10 days. I've been all over...I apparantly am a VBIED magnet, Dash Tope and then Sayad Abad. Spent some time at Shank, Nerkh, and Tangi until we shut it down.

 

[electrolyte]

This, my friends, is why the Dolphins will never, ever draft and develop a QB.

"There's no guarantee".

I should probably fold my pocket aces preflop against a single all-in raise for that same reason.

 

[LouPhinFan]

So this is what we've been reduced to? Running our QB percentages only on a sample that has won a playoff game? Trent Dilfer won playoff games and a Superbowl. In today's NFL you need a FRANCHISE QB to consistently win and contend. First you need to define exactly what constitutes a franchise caliber QB and then apply your methodology to that. Applying it to QBs that have "won a playoff game" doesn't really get you much. Brady was a 6th rounder, Brees was a 2nd rounder. What round were Rodgers, both Mannings, Rapelisburger, and Rivers selected in?

Your chances of getting a franchise-caliber QB are much higher in the first round than any other. I don't just want a QB that can "win a playoff game". I want one that can lead this franchise for 12 or 15 years.

 

[electrolyte]

So this is what we've been reduced to? Running our QB percentages only on a sample that has won a playoff game? Trent Dilfer won playoff games and a Superbowl. In today's NFL you need a FRANCHISE QB to consistently win and contend. First you need to define exactly what constitutes a franchise caliber QB and then apply your methodology to that. Applying it to QBs that have "won a playoff game" doesn't really get you much. Brady was a 6th rounder, Brees was a 2nd rounder. What round were Rodgers, both Mannings, Rapelisburger, and Rivers selected in?

Your chances of getting a franchise-caliber QB are much higher in the first round than any other. I don't just want a QB that can "win a playoff game". I want one that can lead this franchise for 12 or 15 years.

Did trent dilfer win that superbowl or did the Ravens Defense win that superbowl? the 2000 ravens are the greatest defense in NFL history.

 

[R_t_Kraken]

So basically what you're saying is we should continue the search for OUR Brady and not draft a QB in the 1st round? Yeah we've been trying that for over a decade now.

 

[DeathStar]

So lets continue the mediocrity by not drafting a QB in the first round....

Many of us have developed apathy after losses due to the last decade of garbageness...

 

[NY8123]

This, my friends, is why the Dolphins will never, ever draft and develop a QB.

"There's no guarantee".

I should probably fold my pocket aces preflop against a single all-in raise for that same reason.

A better statement would be "this is why this front office will never draft and develop a QB" There's no guarantee.

 

[Valandui]

First of all, Dilfer, who was a first round QB, was carried by one of the best defenses ever.

Brees being a second rounder is a bit of a misnomer as well due to the fact that if he were drafted in that same spot the very next year he would have been a first rounder.

Also, since we're looking at history, every QB that the Dolphins have taken in the first round since the common draft began is currently in the Hall of Fame. Pretty good odds, I would say.

 

[Tunaphish429]

Its time we spent a first rounder on the qb posistion..We have tried other ways and have failed..The money aspect of it is no longer an excuse...If we have a top pick draft a qb.

 

[Sarnics13]

I'm not a huge supporter of all this "math" do help determine our best chance at a good player, but I have to ask.....wouldn't those numbers or "chances" at a first rounders success be less attractive if you took into consideration that in the last 20 years 1 QB won it several times?

Are you taking that into consideration? If you're simply dividing by the number of years that would be inaccurate because, for example, Aikman won it 3 times....but he isn't 3 different QB's......the same guy just won 3 different years?

Not a math wizard

 

[macblastr]

The Dolphins better suck for Luck because that's the only hope for this tanking franchise.

SEE "DAN MARINO"

Obviously a quarterback must be the only hope for any franchise right? It worked so well for Dan. All you people are doing is arguing a point which can never be won. This team sucks from the top to the bottom, from the owner, to the kicker... Andrew Luck is NEVER going to fix what is wrong here, I don't care how many statistics you throw up - Frankly, if you cant protect your quarterback, you better have Matt Moore back there... or Tyler Thigpen - or MiKe Vick... you need a QB that can run for his life.

And 99% of the people screaming for Andrew Luck, has never seen the guy play.

 

[WVDolphan]

The statistics and comparisons you've made here really only prove that there are a helluva lot more "non-1st round QB's" in the league than there are 1st round QB's.

The sample pool for 1st round QB's is exponentially smaller than the pool of "non-1st round QB's".

Your research here is simply casting aside the literally THOUSANDS of "non-1st round QB's" that never amount to anything in the NFL.

The odds of hitting on a QB in the 1st round is somewhere in the neighborhood of 25% or so. The odds of hitting on a QB from the 2nd round-UDFA is immeasurable because the sample pool is so large, and the results are so microscopic.

Several of those 1st round QB's listed there haven't been in the league long enough to have a legitimate shot to win a playoff game yet, but they've already gotten their teams to the playoffs. Steve Young, Troy Aikman, Phil Simms, Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, etc.... were all in the league anywhere from 4-8 years before they won their first playoff game.


I don't believe you need a 1st round QB to win a playoff game, but I've been reading "analysis" just like the one you've provided here every year for about the last 10 years or so.

You don't draft a quarterback in the 1st round just to draft one, but when a legitimate quarterback prospect is there for the taking, you pick him. Especially when you don't have one. Doesn't matter if it's the #1 overall pick, 13th overall pick, 2nd round, 3rd round or 6th round.

You don't pass them up for fear of busting out. Any position can bust. But none of them are going to turn around a stagnant franchise even if they do "hit" quite like the quarterback position will.

Passing up quarterbacks when you don't have one is far worse than busting out on him. Not only did you fail to land your quarterback, you let someone else have him.

Those franchises that busted out on quarterbacks in the 1st round are no worse off than Miami has been by passing them up for the past decade. If you miss, you keep trying.

The Colts didn't throw their hands up in the air after they busted out on Jeff George, they drafted Peyton Manning when they had the chance. The Chargers didn't quit when they busted on Ryan Leaf, they took kept trying with Drew Brees and Eli Manning (who they traded to the Giants for Phillip Rivers).

The Bears busted on Cade McNown, but kept trying with Rex Grossman. They've played in a superbowl since then.... Miami hasn't. Joey Harrington didn't preven the Lions from taking Matthew Stafford when they had the chance.

Just about every team in the league has busted out on 1st round quarterbacks, and they keep trying.... and they've all had more success than Miami has had despite busting on these QB's.

Miami will continue to remain irrelevant in the landscape of the NFL until they figure it out, just like everybody else has.

Dr. Slimm FTMFW

 

[WVDolphan]

Horrible argument overall....but the last statement really caught my attention. "Only" 33% of #1 overall QB's ever win the superbowl. So you are conceding....in your own argument....that we have a 1 in 3 chance of winning the Superbowl by drafting Luck? And you would not take those odds?

Considering that Luck is the most highly ranked of all the #1 prospects since Manning and Elway, Id say those chances greatly increase from 33%. Also, consider the fact that in the last 10 years the game has been altered and the rules slanted in favor of the QBs and that should crank that percentage chance up a notch or two as well.

If we draft Luck, I dont think we should be asking ourselves what are the chances we eventually win a Super Bowl with him. We should be asking what are the chances we win MULTIPLE Super Bowls. Thats why its so important we suck for Luck. This is the only instance I will root for losses. In this case, losing out this year is more important than winning would have been in other years. Losing out this season has a HUGE prize. Probably bigger than that of the team who hoists the Lombardi at seasons end.

 

[tylerdolphin]

Jesus Christ this thread is stupid. So you are putting 1st rounders against the entire field, noting that they are in fact better than the rest of the field combined, then suggesting we take flyers on QBs in other rounds. Holy ****. **** logic is ****. Thats exactly like saying that Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods combined have a 50% chance of winning a tournament, so you should randomly bet on someone out the rest of the field since the field has the same odds. Thats retarded. Yea, theres a chance someone from the field might win...but who? If we pass on Luck and Barkley, who out of the massive field to we choose? See...its retarded.

I wont even get into the fact that your "analysis" is skewed by the fact that Tom Brady, a once in a generation steal and anomaly, has won three SBs and countless PO games. Yeah. Lets try find another Brady. That works. Much better odds in the ****ing 6th round.