There is a lot of talk in Dolphins-land recently discussing that the 'Fins should select a QB, any QB, in the first round and the ship will right itself.
And this line of thinking is based on the myth that "you need a First Round QB to win." But, the problem is, is that this is a myth. Let's look at some numbers:
First, most people agree that a mark of a good QB is that they can win in the playoffs.
QBs that have won playoff games since 2000
Since 2000, out of the 37 QBs who have won at least one playoff game 18 (48.6%) have been first round picks. Thus, there have been more non-first round QBs (19, or 51.4%) that won playoff games than first round QBs who have won playoff games. And in fact, 5 playoff game winning QBs have been UDFAs (13.5%).
So the idea that you need a first round QB to win a playoff game is not only a myth, but in fact is flat out wrong.
But fine, winning a playoff game is one thing, how about winning The Big Game?
The last 20 Super Bowl Winning QBs
Super Bowl XXVI - Mark Rypien
Super Bowl XXVII - Troy Aikman (1) *
Super Bowl XXVIII - Troy Aikman (1) *
Super Bowl XXIX - Steve Young (1) *
Super Bowl XXX - Troy Aikman (1) *
Super Bowl XXXI - Brett Favre
Super Bowl XXXII - John Elway (1) *
Super Bowl XXXIII - John Elway (1) *
Super Bowl XXXIV - Kurt Warner
Super Bowl XXXV - Trent Dilfer (1)
Super Bowl XXXVI - Tom Brady
Super Bowl XXXVII - Brad Johnson
Super Bowl XXXVIII - Tom Brady
Super Bowl XXXIX - Tom Brady
Super Bowl XL - Ben Roethlisberger (1)
Super Bowl XLI - Peyton Manning (1) *
Super Bowl XLII - Eli Manning (1) *
Super Bowl XLIII - Ben Roethlisberger (1)
Super Bowl XLIV - Drew Brees
Super Bowl XLV - Aaron Rodgers (1)
((1) - 1st round pick) / ( * - #1 overall)
Things to note:
This list only represents 14 Quarterbacks in total. 8 first round picks, and 6 who were not. Thus, out of the last 14 Super Bowl winning QBs 57% have been first round selections and 43% have not been first round selections. Or, you can think of it as 12 of the last 20 (60%) Superbowls have been won by a 1st Round quarterback, meaning 8 of 20 (40%) have not been.
Including Elway, since 1983 (not including 2011), 15 QBs have been chosen #1 overall, and 5 (33%) won a Superbowl.
Again, including Elway, since 1983 (not including 2011), 68 QBs have been chosen in the first round and only 8 (11%) have won a Superbowl. Or, only 3 of 53 (6%) QBs chosen in the first round that were not the #1 overall pick won a Superbowl.
There is a definitive distinction between simply a first round QB and a #1 overall picked QB. But, still, a non-first round QB can win a Super Bowl as well. In fact nearly half of the last 14 Super Bowl winners (6 of 14) have been non-First Round QBs.
Now, let's look at a list of QBs, both First Round QBs and Non-First Round QBs of Note since 2000:
First Round QBs since 2000
2011: Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder
2010: Bradford, Tebow
2009: Stafford, Sanchez*, Freeman
2008: Ryan^, Flacco*
2007: Russell, Quinn
2006: Young^, Leinart, Cutler^*
2005: Smith, Rodgers^*, Campbell
2004: Manning^*, Rivers^*, Roesthlisberger^*, Losman
2003: Palmer^, Leftwich, Boller, Grossman*
2002: Carr, Harrington, Ramsey
2001: Vick^*
2000: Pennington*
(32 total) / (^ - Probowler [9]) / (* - Playoff Game Winner [10])
Notable Non-1st Round QBs since 2000
2011: Dalton, Kapernick
2010: McCoy
2009: Painter, Edleman (now WR)
2008: Henne, Flynn
2007: Kolb, Beck
2006: Whitehurst, Gradkowski, Jackson
2005: Orton, Cassel^, Fitzpatrick, Anderson^
2004: Schaub^
2003: Simms, Wallace, Bollinger, Romo^* (UDFA)
2002: McCown, Garrard^*, Delhomme^* (UDFA)
2001: Brees^*, Carter, Feeley, Weinke
2000: Bulger^*, Brady^*, Rattay, Garcia^* (UDFA)
(^ - Probowler [10]) / (* - Playoff Game Winner [7])
Things to note:
Only 36% of QBs selected in the First Round since 2000 (not counting 2011) have won a playoff game. And only 32% has become a Pro Bowler as of yet.
Meanwhile, there were a number of solid non-First Round QBs that went on to win playoff games and spots on a Pro Bowl team. In fact since 2000 there have been 3 UDFAs that became both Pro Bowlers and playoff game winners.
Yes, there are many non-First Round QBs that never amount to anything, but they also do not set their respective franchise back like missing on a First Round QB. For example: Russell, Leinart, Carr, Harrington, Leftwich, Smith, all mired their teams to years of mediocrity.
Conclusion
First Round QBs are not the only QBs that can be successful. In fact, many non-First Round QBs have been successful in the recent past, despite what the "general knowledge" seems to dictate. Also the difference between a #1 overall QB and a QB simply chosen in the First Round may be a lot greater than most people realize.
So, when it comes to the 'Fins, should the mantra really be "any First Round QB" will do? Because the numbers presented here do not seemingly support that. In fact, when only 33% of #1 overall QBs ever win the Super Bowl maybe finding a Super Bowl QB is just dumb luck.
Post #2: http://www.finheaven.com/forums/showthread.php?306996-The-Myth-of-the-First-Round-QB&p=1064047875&viewfull=1#post1064047875
Post #3: http://www.finheaven.com/forums/showthread.php?306996-The-Myth-of-the-First-Round-QB&p=1064048108&viewfull=1#post1064048108
And this line of thinking is based on the myth that "you need a First Round QB to win." But, the problem is, is that this is a myth. Let's look at some numbers:
First, most people agree that a mark of a good QB is that they can win in the playoffs.
QBs that have won playoff games since 2000
(Total: 37) (* - Denotes 1st round [18]) (^ - Denotes UDFA [5])Brady, P. Manning*, McNabb*, Roethlisberger*, Warner^, McNair*, Delhomme^, Dilfer*, Gannon, Johnson, Hasselbeck, Brees, E. Manning*, Favre, Rivers*, Brunell, Collins*, Pennington*, Garcia^, Culpepper*, Vick*, Grossman*, Sanchez*, Flacco*, King, George*, Stewart, Fiedler^, Brooks, Maddox*, Grbac, Plummer, Bulger, Romo^, Garrard, Rodgers*, Cutler*
Since 2000, out of the 37 QBs who have won at least one playoff game 18 (48.6%) have been first round picks. Thus, there have been more non-first round QBs (19, or 51.4%) that won playoff games than first round QBs who have won playoff games. And in fact, 5 playoff game winning QBs have been UDFAs (13.5%).
So the idea that you need a first round QB to win a playoff game is not only a myth, but in fact is flat out wrong.
But fine, winning a playoff game is one thing, how about winning The Big Game?
The last 20 Super Bowl Winning QBs
Super Bowl XXVI - Mark Rypien
Super Bowl XXVII - Troy Aikman (1) *
Super Bowl XXVIII - Troy Aikman (1) *
Super Bowl XXIX - Steve Young (1) *
Super Bowl XXX - Troy Aikman (1) *
Super Bowl XXXI - Brett Favre
Super Bowl XXXII - John Elway (1) *
Super Bowl XXXIII - John Elway (1) *
Super Bowl XXXIV - Kurt Warner
Super Bowl XXXV - Trent Dilfer (1)
Super Bowl XXXVI - Tom Brady
Super Bowl XXXVII - Brad Johnson
Super Bowl XXXVIII - Tom Brady
Super Bowl XXXIX - Tom Brady
Super Bowl XL - Ben Roethlisberger (1)
Super Bowl XLI - Peyton Manning (1) *
Super Bowl XLII - Eli Manning (1) *
Super Bowl XLIII - Ben Roethlisberger (1)
Super Bowl XLIV - Drew Brees
Super Bowl XLV - Aaron Rodgers (1)
((1) - 1st round pick) / ( * - #1 overall)
Things to note:
This list only represents 14 Quarterbacks in total. 8 first round picks, and 6 who were not. Thus, out of the last 14 Super Bowl winning QBs 57% have been first round selections and 43% have not been first round selections. Or, you can think of it as 12 of the last 20 (60%) Superbowls have been won by a 1st Round quarterback, meaning 8 of 20 (40%) have not been.
Including Elway, since 1983 (not including 2011), 15 QBs have been chosen #1 overall, and 5 (33%) won a Superbowl.
Again, including Elway, since 1983 (not including 2011), 68 QBs have been chosen in the first round and only 8 (11%) have won a Superbowl. Or, only 3 of 53 (6%) QBs chosen in the first round that were not the #1 overall pick won a Superbowl.
There is a definitive distinction between simply a first round QB and a #1 overall picked QB. But, still, a non-first round QB can win a Super Bowl as well. In fact nearly half of the last 14 Super Bowl winners (6 of 14) have been non-First Round QBs.
Now, let's look at a list of QBs, both First Round QBs and Non-First Round QBs of Note since 2000:
First Round QBs since 2000
2011: Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder
2010: Bradford, Tebow
2009: Stafford, Sanchez*, Freeman
2008: Ryan^, Flacco*
2007: Russell, Quinn
2006: Young^, Leinart, Cutler^*
2005: Smith, Rodgers^*, Campbell
2004: Manning^*, Rivers^*, Roesthlisberger^*, Losman
2003: Palmer^, Leftwich, Boller, Grossman*
2002: Carr, Harrington, Ramsey
2001: Vick^*
2000: Pennington*
(32 total) / (^ - Probowler [9]) / (* - Playoff Game Winner [10])
Notable Non-1st Round QBs since 2000
2011: Dalton, Kapernick
2010: McCoy
2009: Painter, Edleman (now WR)
2008: Henne, Flynn
2007: Kolb, Beck
2006: Whitehurst, Gradkowski, Jackson
2005: Orton, Cassel^, Fitzpatrick, Anderson^
2004: Schaub^
2003: Simms, Wallace, Bollinger, Romo^* (UDFA)
2002: McCown, Garrard^*, Delhomme^* (UDFA)
2001: Brees^*, Carter, Feeley, Weinke
2000: Bulger^*, Brady^*, Rattay, Garcia^* (UDFA)
(^ - Probowler [10]) / (* - Playoff Game Winner [7])
Things to note:
Only 36% of QBs selected in the First Round since 2000 (not counting 2011) have won a playoff game. And only 32% has become a Pro Bowler as of yet.
Meanwhile, there were a number of solid non-First Round QBs that went on to win playoff games and spots on a Pro Bowl team. In fact since 2000 there have been 3 UDFAs that became both Pro Bowlers and playoff game winners.
Yes, there are many non-First Round QBs that never amount to anything, but they also do not set their respective franchise back like missing on a First Round QB. For example: Russell, Leinart, Carr, Harrington, Leftwich, Smith, all mired their teams to years of mediocrity.
Conclusion
First Round QBs are not the only QBs that can be successful. In fact, many non-First Round QBs have been successful in the recent past, despite what the "general knowledge" seems to dictate. Also the difference between a #1 overall QB and a QB simply chosen in the First Round may be a lot greater than most people realize.
So, when it comes to the 'Fins, should the mantra really be "any First Round QB" will do? Because the numbers presented here do not seemingly support that. In fact, when only 33% of #1 overall QBs ever win the Super Bowl maybe finding a Super Bowl QB is just dumb luck.
Post #2: http://www.finheaven.com/forums/showthread.php?306996-The-Myth-of-the-First-Round-QB&p=1064047875&viewfull=1#post1064047875
Post #3: http://www.finheaven.com/forums/showthread.php?306996-The-Myth-of-the-First-Round-QB&p=1064048108&viewfull=1#post1064048108