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The Nerds Think The Dolphins Are The 2nd Worst Team In Football

phinsforlife

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Nerd stats linked to below, along with an explanation. Dolphins 2nd worst overall (Cleveland the worst), 31st ranked offense, 23rd ranked defense. I am well aware of the limitations of nerd stats, because they can be somewhat contrived and involve guesswork. So it is always good to compare the nerd stats to the eye test. I am sure Chris Grier would laugh at all of these numbers too!

Overall #31 - we have been bad. Whether 2nd worst or 5th worst, what's the diff?

Defense #23 - seems about right to me. Has not been great. If our defense is really 17th, is it anything to get excited about? We still seem really soft right up the middle where Wilkins used to be, linebackers are poor in coverage, and there have been some busts. The good news is they seem to be trying, but really, when Pilli and Benito Jones are part of your starting rotation, how good can you be? PS sadly the nerds have Flores defense in Minny (with Van Ginkel) ranked #1.

Offense #31 - the number seems right to me. Blame Tua being gone, but it is what it is. It is our fault we are in this situation. Further, it didn't look good with Tua in there, except for one quarter against Jacksonville. And it hasn't looked all that great with Tua in there going back to the last half or last third of last season either.


DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10% better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20% worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative. Every year is normalized so the average for that year is 0%. For more detail, read below.
 
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The defense being ranking 23rd or whatever is also a bit concerning, considering we played the Jags & the Titans who have awful offenses so far this season.
DVOA is meant to adjust for that, hopefully they did, because if not, our defense is worse than 23rd given how bad the Jags and Titans O are. The Jags moved the ball all over us, two drives the length of the field. Luckily Holland punched that ball away, and the game turned. But for most of that game they were giving up a lot of yards. And that was with some big drops by Christian Kirk and others too. That game is retrospect was a huge red flag. Trevor Lawrence has sucked this year in every other game. That thing is a mess too. Teams will learn they need to be a lot more careful with these $55mm a year QB salaries. Eventually someone is going to tell one of these QBs no, take a hike, starting over is a better offer than handing you $55mm and blowing up the rest of our roster in the process.
 
Now also take into consideration how the same roster that was top 12 last year and in the pre-season voting is now suddenly 31st in the rankings.

It can only be two things, which is a combination of coaching and roster construction. You can't really lay it on the strength of the schedule because the only team they've beaten is the 32nd team in the NFL and they just lost to a team that is probably going to out-lose them the rest of the season, so...

If I owned this football team, I'd be finding a way to ensure this team makes it all the way flushed down the toilet the rest of this season. There's no need for Tua to rush back. Then again, maybe a re-injury will help him to retire.
 
It took us a terrible 4th quarter from an 0-4 team to keep us from being 0-4 ourselves. That ain't great.
 
The defense being ranking 23rd or whatever is also a bit concerning, considering we played the Jags & the Titans who have awful offenses so far this season.
I feel like the defense has been alright at times. The offense is really making it hard on them
 
The defense being ranking 23rd or whatever is also a bit concerning, considering we played the Jags & the Titans who have awful offenses so far this season.
PS the nerds have Flores defense in Minny, with Van Ginkel, ranked #1 in the NFL!
 
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