The New NFL - Positional Value - NFL Draft Round 1 value

[FSU Truth]

Not to bury the lead, but over the last few years I have been kicking around this idea of positional value and a shift that has seem to have happen in the last few years. I'm starting this thread based on comment @j-off-her-doll and @Awsi Dooger have made in posts. I do apologize ahead of time as this is going to seem like a post that asks a ton of questions.

I think RB is a good example of a position that has decreased in value over the last decade plus. Rarely we see numerous RB's go in the early rounds of the NFL draft and the drop off in ability from a RB taken in the 1st to those drafted in later rounds is insignificant. With a few exceptions, running backs almost never produce for long periods of time in their career.

WR's on the other hand have seen a big jump in increased value. The game favors a passing offense, the WR's who are now entering the draft have been apart of passing offenses since they were playing in Pop Warner.

So what positions hold the most Value in the NFL? QB is obviously number 1 and it isn't even close...it has been number 1 for a long time and will remain number 1 for a long time.

What is most important after that? If the NFL is geared around passing and stopping the pass, are positions involved in passing offense and passing defense more valuable. WRs, DBs, QB, TEs and RBs that can catch. At least that would be my guess.

So I guess he is the real questions are...

What positions do you target in round 1?

What positions do you avoid in round 1?

Personally

Round 1 focus
QB
WR
Edge
DB

Only at the end of Round 1
OL

The NFL has evolved so much over just the last decade that some of my thinking, when looking at players and prospects personally needs to change, so I am trying to get an idea of what is of value in the current NFL, what positions are hardest to find good players at later in the draft and what traits do you look for at specific position.

 

[DPhinz_DPhinz]

I avoid WR (corps are adequate) and DB (rd 2-3 can produce a FS and CB good enogh to replace McCain and replace/compete with Needham) in Rd 1.

Unless it's Tua, which I dont want with 75% of his hips, I am fine passing on QB in rd 1.

 

[ChrisEAS]

if i was GM, I would never take a RB or WR in round 1. Probably not until round 4 the earliest.

Saquon Barkley? The best to ever come out supposedly? His team has won few games this year.

Even DE, Chandler Jones is the top in the league, his team has won very few games this year.

Xavien Howard is one of the best CBs? His team has won 3 games.

AJ Green is one of the best WRs? His team has won very few games this year.

Khalil Mack? Same thing.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

Not to bury the lead, but over the last few years I have been kicking around this idea of positional value and a shift that has seem to have happen in the last few years. I'm starting this thread based on comment @j-off-her-doll and @Awsi Dooger have made in posts. I do apologize ahead of time as this is going to seem like a post that asks a ton of questions.

I think RB is a good example of a position that has decreased in value over the last decade plus. Rarely we see numerous RB's go in the early rounds of the NFL draft and the drop off in ability from a RB taken in the 1st to those drafted in later rounds is insignificant. With a few exceptions, running backs almost never produce for long periods of time in their career.

WR's on the other hand have seen a big jump in increased value. The game favors a passing offense, the WR's who are now entering the draft have been apart of passing offenses since they were playing in Pop Warner.

So what positions hold the most Value in the NFL? QB is obviously number 1 and it isn't even close...it has been number 1 for a long time and will remain number 1 for a long time.

What is most important after that? If the NFL is geared around passing and stopping the pass, are positions involved in passing offense and passing defense more valuable. WRs, DBs, QB, TEs and RBs that can catch. At least that would be my guess.

So I guess he is the real questions are...

What positions do you target in round 1?

What positions do you avoid in round 1?

Personally

Round 1 focus
QB
WR
Edge
DB

Only at the end of Round 1
OL

The NFL has evolved so much over just the last decade that some of my thinking, when looking at players and prospects personally needs to change, so I am trying to get an idea of what is of value in the current NFL, what positions are hardest to find good players at later in the draft and what traits do you look for at specific position.

I'll go with that with the caveat 'if there is a consensus All-Pro OT at #10 and it's a position of need, I have no problem. I'd add, from memory, seems like a number of LBs go in R1

 

[Danny]

Not to bury the lead, but over the last few years I have been kicking around this idea of positional value and a shift that has seem to have happen in the last few years. I'm starting this thread based on comment @j-off-her-doll and @Awsi Dooger have made in posts. I do apologize ahead of time as this is going to seem like a post that asks a ton of questions.

I think RB is a good example of a position that has decreased in value over the last decade plus. Rarely we see numerous RB's go in the early rounds of the NFL draft and the drop off in ability from a RB taken in the 1st to those drafted in later rounds is insignificant. With a few exceptions, running backs almost never produce for long periods of time in their career.

WR's on the other hand have seen a big jump in increased value. The game favors a passing offense, the WR's who are now entering the draft have been apart of passing offenses since they were playing in Pop Warner.

So what positions hold the most Value in the NFL? QB is obviously number 1 and it isn't even close...it has been number 1 for a long time and will remain number 1 for a long time.

What is most important after that? If the NFL is geared around passing and stopping the pass, are positions involved in passing offense and passing defense more valuable. WRs, DBs, QB, TEs and RBs that can catch. At least that would be my guess.

So I guess he is the real questions are...

What positions do you target in round 1?

What positions do you avoid in round 1?

Personally

Round 1 focus
QB
WR
Edge
DB

Only at the end of Round 1
OL

The NFL has evolved so much over just the last decade that some of my thinking, when looking at players and prospects personally needs to change, so I am trying to get an idea of what is of value in the current NFL, what positions are hardest to find good players at later in the draft and what traits do you look for at specific position.

I pretty much agree that QB and WR's that are explosive should be high on the list depending on what you need of of course. Anyone that wants us to draft corn after corn and not draft a QB because we don't have a good enough team in place for the QB is missing the whole point imo.

Edge matters but you don't need Edge at the top of the first round unless that's your last missing piece.

Oline matters but I want my high picks going to play makers.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

if i was GM, I would never take a RB or WR in round 1. Probably not until round 4 the earliest.

If I were a GM, I would ask for a show of hands of all that agree with this line of thinking.

None would continue working for me.

I would never allow that type of close minded approach to undermine my task of building a football program.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Great topic. I'm surprised more research hasn't been devoted to this. I suspect it is forthcoming. Just as analytics are beginning to dictate situational choices during a game I'm sure teams will become more aware of positional strategy at each point in the draft, as opposed to just winging it based on feel and team need.

The balancing act is how valuable a position is compared to how difficult it is to project at that position. Wide receiver is the most troublesome position for exactly that reason. The first round bust rate has been high for decades. Teams that can scout that wide receiver really have an edge on the league. Speed is overvalued. That was a finding from a Cal Berkeley research paper from a few years ago. I am scrambling to find that link as I type this. I distinctly remember that combine speed among wide receivers was significantly overvalued while 40 yard dash speed among running backs was just the opposite...markedly undervalued.

Everyone knows that quarterbacks are difficult to project. But the obscene benefit of a connect makes it well worth the risk. That's what fans often ignore. John Elway would kick himself for a non-quarterback first round blunder much more than Paxton Lynch.

While I'm looking for the research paper here is a recent 538 link that looks at monetary allocation by position compared to how frequently that position is drafted in the first round. At opposite ends are defensive line and tight end. The league drafts defensive linemen high at much greater rate than they pay them, while tight ends are apparently undervalued since they receive 5% of team salary yet account for less than 2% of players selected in the first round.

Here is a related 538 section devoted to wide receivers:

"Wide receivers also seem to be getting short-changed on draft day. But this may have to do more with how difficult it is to assess them. The position has proved exceedingly difficult to scout, judging by first-round bust rate. What’s more, many of the drills that wide receivers endure at the scouting combine don’t seem to predict actual NFL success. So maybe spending more money on proven receivers rather than rolling the dice in the draft than you are willing to spend in the draft is wise."

Which Positions Do Teams Obsess Over (And Overlook) On Draft Day?

A strong NFL draft can instantly transform a franchise. But the draft isn’t just about getting great players — it’s about getting great players on the cheap. T…

fivethirtyeight.com

IMO, competitiveness is the meaningful variable at wide receiver. I sometimes use the term athletic arrogance. Wide receiver vs. cornerback all day is the closest thing to a boxing match in pro football. Sometimes you are spaced and sometimes you are hand fighting in close quarters. But it is always man to man and eye to eye. You need someone with competitiveness to separate and also to pluck the ball. John Ross right now has no competitiveness so his speed doesn't mean much of anything. DeVante Parker is suddenly competitive right now, or at least when a second contract was at stake.

Cornerback is another interesting position because the first round bust rate was not bad until about a dozen or so years ago. Now the studies that are looking at recent range only are detecting the issues with that position, but longer term models have yet to catch on. We'll see how that goes. That position intrigues me because my sharpest Las Vegas friend has been insisting for 4-5 years that teams are butchering the evaluations at cornerback. Then a guy at footballs future.com who began a positional project from scratch last year detected exactly the same thing.

Okay, I found the research paper. Before I link that I should mention that quarterback spending numbers a la the 538 table are somewhat misleading because Tom Brady is the most absurdly underpaid athlete of all time, in terms of salary alone. He could have rightfully commanded twice as much over the past decade or so, but obviously didn't so so to aid the Patriots salary cap while recognizing that team success would also lead to more endorsement opportunities for himself, now and long after his playing days.

It also should be noted that Reshad Jones' preposterous contract by itself bumped up the average strong safety salary by $1 million per season. I remember reading that somewhere.

https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/Research/Ugrad/Paul_Park.pdf

 

[Awsi Dooger]

If I were a GM, I would ask for a show of hands of all that agree with this line of thinking.

None would continue working for me.

I would never allow that type of close minded approach to undermine my task of building a football program.

Agree completely. Same type of thing showed up frequently in Las Vegas. I remember one guy exclaiming, "I would never give 10-1 on ANYTHING."

He expected applause. Instead my friend Darrell piped up, "You wouldn't give 10-1 on Carl Lewis against me in the 100? Then you're a fool. There can be value at any number."

 

[Russ57]

I was thinking of starting much the same type of thread. Mine was going to be along the line of, " If you could only have 5 pro bowl players what positions do you want".

You could look at who gets paid the most.

You could look at who gets drafted the highest.

You could look at what people thinks matters the most.

I would say QB is first no matter how you look at it. Outside rush/DE/Edge would be two. Used to be left tackle was three but some are leaning towards inside rush nowadays. That would then make left tackle fourth. Used to be CB was next but current thinking has the safety ranked more important. WR used to be next but current thinking is TE's offer a better mismatch.

While I wouldn't let such thoughts rule out a pick, I do think it aligns well with our teams needs. If we come away with a QB, DE, LT/DT, CB/SS, and WR with our first five picks I would not complain. I don't see a TE worth that high a pick in this draft but I'd love to get Shenault.

 

[TheWozz]

QB is obvious.
Pass rusher...usually edge but I'd target an interior DLineman that can rush the passer as quick inside pressure is disruptive. They need to be at least adequate run defenders to go Top 10 as I don't want a premiere pick on a 3rd down specialist
Boundary CB...I go that specific as I would not go safety unless they are really special. The days of the Lott, Oliver, Atwater intimidator died with the emphasis on player safety.
OT - Im old school and think ultimately that the games are still won in the trenches even if they don't make it on fantasy football teams or ESPN highlights
I value a two way TE - a guy that can get chunk seam plays, safe 3rd and short pick ups and be a very solid plus in the run game enough to grab a special one...probably mid or later 1st (not likely Top 10)

A WR or RB would have to have huge production, nfl ready skills and prototype size/speed to consider in the 1st. Ditto with safety and center

 

[TheWozz]

add...I'd also go with a defensive player that has enough versatility to fill multiple roles well in the D that we are running...in the 1st outside of top 10.

 

[Locke]

if i was GM, I would never take a RB or WR in round 1. Probably not until round 4 the earliest.

Saquon Barkley? The best to ever come out supposedly? His team has won few games this year.

Even DE, Chandler Jones is the top in the league, his team has won very few games this year.

Xavien Howard is one of the best CBs? His team has won 3 games.

AJ Green is one of the best WRs? His team has won very few games this year.

Khalil Mack? Same thing.

You’d have missed out on absolutely dynamic playmakers like Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas over this stupid rule. You are banking on the Antonio Browns of the NFL and acting like he isn’t an outlier.

Who are the best WRs in the NFL right now? DeVante Adams? 2nd round. Michael Thomas? 2nd round. Julio Jones? Top 10 pick. Keenan Allen? 3rd round. Mike Evans? First round.You’d have missed every single one of those players over a senseless rule that makes no sense.

 

[Feverdream]

With the bevy of rule changes over the past few decades, all of which have favoured the offense, the modern NFL is obviously a passing league now. So...

1. QB and Edge pass rushers
2. Offensive Tackles and Corner Backs
3. Interior Offensive Linemen and Interior Defensive Linemen
4. Running Backs/Wide Receivers and Safeties/Inside Linebackers
5. Kickers

Football has become an edge game, unless you are really bad... and then you get beat inside and have no chance whatsoever.

This said, players from less valued positions can move into the upper part of round 1, but they'd better be exceptional... and in a severe area of need.

My 2 cents.

Now, that said... this doesn't mean that you have to build a team by checking off box #1 first, only that you'll need players from these positions if you are truly ready to compete deep into the playoffs.

 

[Danny]

It is amazing to me how many people say they don't want to draft a WR or a RB high "because you can find good ones later".........those are the guys that score you points but you want to use lower picks on them and yet you want corn in the first round.

Well, I used to be a restaurant manager at TGI Fridays and once the big rush was over you start cutting people to control your labor. One thing I used to say was, lets not cut too many servers as those are your sales people along with your bar people.

WR's, TE's and RB's are the ones that get the ball in the end zone. Those are the guys I want when I'm starting to build a team. Yes you need Edge. Yes you need an O line and on and on but you need to score more than the other team to win the game.

 

[Feverdream]

WR's, TE's and RB's are the ones that get the ball in the end zone. Those are the guys I want when I'm starting to build a team. Yes you need Edge. Yes you need an O line and on and on but you need to score more than the other team to win the game.

Which you can not do if your line is poor.