The odds and some perspective | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

The odds and some perspective

aquatix

aquatix

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The odds (let's see if your %'s are lose to mine):

The Dolphins make the playoffs if ALL of this happens Sunday (home teams in bold):

Dolphins (7-8) defeat Steelers (8-7) - 30%, Pitt is playing well and we're not. I fear Big Ben is going to have a Big day. I hope I'm wrong.

Patriots (10-5) defeat Texans (8-7) - 75%, NE is playing very well at the right time (figures) and wants that #3 seed

Raiders (5-10) defeat Ravens (8-7) - 15%, Ravens are hungry for a wild card and Al Davis wants his high draft pick. Plus, the Raiders are terrible.

Browns (4-11) defeat Jaguars (7-8) - 25%, The Browns have found a little spark on offense, but they still suck. Jax has been overrated since day 1, but they shouldn't have a problem here.

Bengals (10-5) defeat Jets (8-7) - 50%, this game is the toughest to call. Cincy would like the #3 seed and the Jets want in the playoffs (I hate that thought).

Total odds that the Dolphins would go to New England in the first round (multiplying these %'s) - .004%

What final % do you come up with?

Having said that, let me offer a little perspective:

When we started 0-3, I feared the season was already over. All that anticipation I built up was only going to last 3 weeks. I prayed (sad, I know) that we could at least get "back in it". It worked and it was exciting to at least have a shot at the playoffs... I know we wish we were better and there were many games that we could've/should've won. Remember, we're not that far off from the 1-15 year and it could be worse! We could be fans of the Bills, Browns, Raiders, Chiefs, Redskins, Bears, Lions, Bucs, Seahawks, or Rams.

At least we have a chance this year, albeit a .004% one.

Phin fan for life, no matter what!
 
TheDon74 said:
Hey people win the lottery every day why not us?
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How many people win the lottery by ripping up the winning ticket and burning up the ripped up parts?? That's what Miami has done.
 
Dredd1050 said:
How many people win the lottery by ripping up the winning ticket and burning up the ripped up parts?? That's what Miami has done.
Click to expand...

Well if they beat the Steelers and the other games fall right I guess they got some scotch tape and fixed the ticket.

I hear what your saying though, they have really shot themselves in the foot the last two weeks. You could say the same thing about most of the other borderline teams as well though. Look at the Steelers losing to KC, Oak and Cle in 3 of their last 4, if they still get in though they will deserve it just like we will if we do.
 
Jesus...people are still figuring out .004% chances of Miami earning another 1st round playoff thumping?

And what does other teams fans have to do with anything?

Here's a little perspective.....only 2 years ago fans of most of those teams you mentioned were saying the same thing about Miami...

"At least we aren't fans of the Dolphins, etc..etc..etc.."..:lol:

Fans of the Rams, Bucs, Bears, Seahawks, and Raiders have all watched their teams play in superbowls this decade...

It's incredible how insecure the Miami Dolphins fan base is...
 
Ouch man, ouch.

TedSlimmJr said:
And what does other teams fans have to do with anything?

Here's a little perspective.....only 2 years ago fans of most of those teams you mentioned were saying the same thing about Miami...

"At least we aren't fans of the Dolphins, etc..etc..etc.."..:lol:
Click to expand...

I guess that's kind of my point... we've gotten better, we're just not where "fans" (including me) wish we were. The truth is, very few fans of other teams are either.
 
100 % chance Dolphins beat the Steelers

100 % chance Oakland beat the Ravens

100 % chance Patriots beat the Texans

100 % chance Browns beat the Jags

100 % chance Bengals destroy the Jets

100 % chance we make the playoffs

100 % chance I come on finheaven afterwards and tell everyone to STFU for trying to crush what faith I had.
 
Dolphins (7-8) defeat Steelers (8-7) - 45%, We're a good home team, dont let the first half against the Texans fool you

Patriots (10-5) defeat Texans (8-7) - 65%, Texans as unpredictable as a rattlesnake... they can win by 20 or lose by 30, we'll see

Raiders (5-10) defeat Ravens (8-7) - 15%, Agree without Gradkowski they have no chance

Browns (4-11) defeat Jaguars (7-8) - 40%, Browns have won 3 straight and have gotten their running game going, Jags are average

Bengals (10-5) defeat Jets (8-7) - 40%, Cincy might not play their important starters, if thats the case we're screwed

Total Odds: .007% wooo hooo theres a chance!
 
I have a feeling everything is going to fall into place and our beloved Phins are going to make the playoffs and bring home the trophy. Can't wait for the parade....go Phins all the way!!!!!
 
Dolphins defeat the Steelers 50% Dolphins at home should be an advantage but I though they would beat the Texans at home.Steelers also are still fighting against nearly impossible odds for a playoff spot. Steelers are a proud team and the Defending champs.

Patriots defeat the Texans 35% I think the Texans win this one big.

Raiders defeat Ravens 40% The Raiders have pulled upsets several times this year but the Ravens are the better team fighting for a playoff spot.

Browns defeat the Jaguars 65% I think the Jags shot their load in that defeat against the Colts.They've packed it in.Plus the Browns have been playing better lately.

Bengals defeat Jets 60% Bengals will still be playing for the 3rd seed and want to go into the playoffs on a good streak.They could rest their starters though and save their real game plan if they have to face the Jets again the following week.

Total odds 0.0273 %
 
I say 5% is the chance everything happens.

I'd say the jets had a 10% chance what happened this past sunday, who knows maybe we will get lucky as **** also.
 
None of those games the Jets benifited from were really big upsets. Oak over Balt would be a HUGE upset.
 
aquatix said:
None of those games the Jets benifited from were really big upsets. Oak over Balt would be a HUGE upset.
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I disagree, an east coast team going out west a week after a tough road loss. Add in the fact that Baltimore is just not that great and have benefited from a fairly soft schedule. Oakland has a lot of talented players and on any given Sunday can play with just about any team in the league, case in point:

They have beat Philly, Pittsburgh, Denver and Cincinnati this year along with playing San Diego close twice. I'm not saying Oakland winning wouldn't be an upset just not a HUGE one.
 
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