Dfootball11
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So here it is people.. i did the math and research and here is miami's playoff picture
As it stands we are in a 3 way tie for first place :up:
The surest way for us to make the playoffs is if we win out the season. Let me repeat IF WE WIN OUT, WE WIN THE DIVISION!
This is complicated because you really have to look at all the tie breaking procedures to get the complete picture here. If we win out we have a better record then the Jets obviously because we play them the last game. But even if the Pats win out and finish 11-5 we win in the tie breaking procedures. Since we both won one game it goes to Division record, but we would both be 5-2. So it goes best win-loss in common games played. And if we both win out we will both be 11-3. So then it goes to best conference record and that is where we got them. We will be 8-4 and NE 7-5. So if we win out we are all good.
Wildcard
The tricky part comes in if we finish 10-6. Currently Baltimore and Indy hold the 2 wildcard spots (at 9-4 each). We would need Baltimore to lose all three of their remaining games in order for us to move ahead of them because they beat us head to head. Also in order for us to move ahead of Indy, we would need them to lose all three of their remaining games. Even if they lose their last 2 conference games against JAC and TEN we would both be 10-6, and then say we win our last 2 conference games vs KC and NYJ we would both have the same Conference record at 8-4. But when u look at common games played they would be 5-0 when we are 2-3. Therefore we need them to lose out if we are gonna lose 1 more game. It is unlikely that either of these will happen but it may with Baltimore because they play PIT, Dallas, and then JAC.
Division with 10-6 record
This is were it gets extremely complicated. Ok lets start by looking at NYJ. It basically will come down to the last game vs them. The only way we can move past them while losing that game is if they lose their next two games vs buf and sea. But assuming they win those two games and we lose one of our next two and then beat NYJs it comes back down to the tie breaking. We would both be 10-6 with one win a piece. So it goes to division which if it plays out this way we will both be 4-2 in the division. Then it goes to common games won, and regardless of which we lose (if we do, between SF and KC) we will be 9-4 in common games while they are 8-5. So we will move past NYJ.
Now to NE... If NE loses any of their next three games (OAK, ARI, BUF) then all we have to do is not lose to KC or NYJ to maintain a lead over NE. And if we lose to KC instead of SF it will go to strength of victory then strength of schedule which i am not sure but i do not think we will win that tie breaker.
Summary (Playoff birth)
1) Win out
or
2) Lose to SF but win against KC and NYJ with 1 NE loss vs (OAK, ARI, BUF)
or
3) Loss to KC but win vs SF and NYJ and with NE losing vs OAK or BUF
or
4) Loss to NYJ but win vs SF and KC and with NYJ losing to Buf and SEA and NE losing to BUF
or
5) NE and NYJ lossing 2 of next three and Miami finishing 10-6
or
6) Lose two of next three and with NYJ and NE losing out
or
7) Baltimore or IND lose out
sheesh ok.. there it is enjoy :beer1:
As it stands we are in a 3 way tie for first place :up:
The surest way for us to make the playoffs is if we win out the season. Let me repeat IF WE WIN OUT, WE WIN THE DIVISION!
This is complicated because you really have to look at all the tie breaking procedures to get the complete picture here. If we win out we have a better record then the Jets obviously because we play them the last game. But even if the Pats win out and finish 11-5 we win in the tie breaking procedures. Since we both won one game it goes to Division record, but we would both be 5-2. So it goes best win-loss in common games played. And if we both win out we will both be 11-3. So then it goes to best conference record and that is where we got them. We will be 8-4 and NE 7-5. So if we win out we are all good.
Wildcard
The tricky part comes in if we finish 10-6. Currently Baltimore and Indy hold the 2 wildcard spots (at 9-4 each). We would need Baltimore to lose all three of their remaining games in order for us to move ahead of them because they beat us head to head. Also in order for us to move ahead of Indy, we would need them to lose all three of their remaining games. Even if they lose their last 2 conference games against JAC and TEN we would both be 10-6, and then say we win our last 2 conference games vs KC and NYJ we would both have the same Conference record at 8-4. But when u look at common games played they would be 5-0 when we are 2-3. Therefore we need them to lose out if we are gonna lose 1 more game. It is unlikely that either of these will happen but it may with Baltimore because they play PIT, Dallas, and then JAC.
Division with 10-6 record
This is were it gets extremely complicated. Ok lets start by looking at NYJ. It basically will come down to the last game vs them. The only way we can move past them while losing that game is if they lose their next two games vs buf and sea. But assuming they win those two games and we lose one of our next two and then beat NYJs it comes back down to the tie breaking. We would both be 10-6 with one win a piece. So it goes to division which if it plays out this way we will both be 4-2 in the division. Then it goes to common games won, and regardless of which we lose (if we do, between SF and KC) we will be 9-4 in common games while they are 8-5. So we will move past NYJ.
Now to NE... If NE loses any of their next three games (OAK, ARI, BUF) then all we have to do is not lose to KC or NYJ to maintain a lead over NE. And if we lose to KC instead of SF it will go to strength of victory then strength of schedule which i am not sure but i do not think we will win that tie breaker.
Summary (Playoff birth)
1) Win out
or
2) Lose to SF but win against KC and NYJ with 1 NE loss vs (OAK, ARI, BUF)
or
3) Loss to KC but win vs SF and NYJ and with NE losing vs OAK or BUF
or
4) Loss to NYJ but win vs SF and KC and with NYJ losing to Buf and SEA and NE losing to BUF
or
5) NE and NYJ lossing 2 of next three and Miami finishing 10-6
or
6) Lose two of next three and with NYJ and NE losing out
or
7) Baltimore or IND lose out
sheesh ok.. there it is enjoy :beer1:
