You have to be careful when looking at NDSU QB's and projecting their winning to NFL success. I live in ND and went to NDSU's rival but have had to watch every snap of every game going back to Brock Jensen and am honestly shocked just how much hype Trey Lance is getting. He has a fantastic feel in the pocket and is able to find open spaces to run with ease, and being such a dynamic athlete, he is at his best when he is running the ball and throwing outside the pocket and does have a decently strong arm to make all the required throws. It is not an elite arm but he has the strength to make every throw.
The problem I have with him is in the passing game. People look at his stats and see soo many touchdowns and so few picks and just assume that he has this insane accuracy when in reality it is the weakest part of his game. If you can keep him in the pocket and make him beat you with his arm he isn't very good and this was highlighted in the game this fall vs. Central Arkansas. He tried to showcase his passing game in the first half and instead of giving the scouts a reason to not doubt his arm, they saw nothing but questions. He simply isnt consistent enough with his accuracy at this point to be a viable NFL QB right away.
NDSU has had a lot of great college QBs come through the program, starting with Brock Jensen who we had in camp and didn't even display an NFL training camp arm. We had to bring in a qb from Northern Colorado just to be a training camp arm.
Next up was Carson Wentz who is from my hometown. NDSU recruited 2 QBs from Bismarck ND during that recruiting season, one being Carson Wentz from Century Highschool and the other being Esley Thorton from Bismarck High. They didn't recruit both to be qbs and the loser of the battle in fall camp would convert to linebacker. You will never hear anyone from the program now say just how close that battle was but rumor has it that it was so close, the deciding factor was that Esley Thorton was just built more like a linebacker and the rest is history. Carson is miles ahead of any other NDSU QB, he ran a pro style offense, was strong with the playbook, and could go through his progressions with ease. He was actually pushing Jensen for playing time he was that good in practice and still to this day is one of the latest blooming QB prospects I have ever seen.
Following that up was Easton Stick. He was a nice player and was athletic enough to run the ball and pass but never really had an NFL type arm to be a true NFL QB. Personally I always thought he could be a nice receiver in the league.
Than we get to Trey Lance, who is an extremely dynamic athlete for a powerhouse program but is so raw with his arm that it is a huge red flag. If you are drafting this kid, you need to be ready to sit him for a full year at a minimum as he has a ways to go to even get to where Lamar Jackson was in college as a passer.
I have a 3rd round grade on lance and that is only because of just how athletic he is. You are drafting the athlete and praying you can develop the arm and that always is a huge red flag for any qb. Drafting Trey and thinking that he is a winner is just not good practice.
