The real value of draft picks...? | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

The real value of draft picks...?

NBP81 said:
As many of you know, Im on the tanking bandwagon. This seems to be the hot topic these days on the board. Today @Dolphins81 replied to one of my posts with "Do your own research" after I replied to one of his posts listing top 5 QBs and their actual success in the NFL. This is by no means a call out as I think he has a point. Im out there pounding on the fact that picking earlier in the draft theorically holds an advantage and all I have to stand on is logic and theory.

I can do the research, I have some programming and playing with data ability but I'd like to have your input on a couple of things before I start with the project.

The main hurdle is quantifying success. This needs to be position specific as most stats make sense for some position groups but not for others. ie. OL play is very hard to quantify.

I think games started can be very misleading as its easier to start on bad teams and bad teams, on average, draft earlier...

I thought of using specific position stats, like TDs(or Rating, or TD%, or whatever) for QBS, Y/C for RBs(or total yards, TDs or whatever) but I feel like this approach is still dependant on the surroundings of the player.

What I've come up with is using the first contract value of each players. Of course we'd have to weigh in different positions as even bad QBs make more than great RBs... But I think judging success by the first contract should reflect actual return very well.

I want to know if you agree with that or better yet, have a better way to quantify success for a rookie player.

Thanks!
Click to expand...

Yeah, the point of that list that I posted was to show all of the bust and QBs that haven’t made the SB. Also, to research the QBs that have been taken outside of the top 5 is much more time consuming, that’s why I posted to do your own, I don’t have the time. However, it’s a total crap shoot with QBs. Look at all of the teams that passed on Brady or Wilson. How many times did we pass on Brees. One of my main reasons for wanting the 1st pick was to trade it. With all of the Tua and Burrow excitement we could have gotten a massive amount of picks to trade. And the best part, we would have taken another teams future.
 
Dolphins81 said:
Yeah, the point of that list that I posted was to show all of the bust and QBs that haven’t made the SB. Also, to research the QBs that have been taken outside of the top 5 is much more time consuming, that’s why I posted to do your own, I don’t have the time. However, it’s a total crap shoot with QBs. Look at all of the teams that passed on Brady or Wilson. How many times did we pass on Brees. One of my main reasons for wanting the 1st pick was to trade it. With all of the Tua and Burrow excitement we could have gotten a massive amount of picks to trade. And the best part, we would have taken another teams future.
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The problem is that you're limiting the sample size to less than 15-20 total games as the barometer for success and failure which is obviously insane given that there are 512 games played every single year which doesn't even include the playoffs. That's not statistically relevant enough to come to any real conclusion.
 
Kamelion4291 said:
The problem is that you're limiting the sample size to less than 15-20 total games as the barometer for success and failure which is obviously insane given that there are 512 games played every single year which doesn't even include the playoffs. That's not statistically relevant enough to come to any real conclusion.
Click to expand...


QBs drafted in the top 5

2018 Baker Mayfield and Sam Dumba$$
2017 Mitchell Trubisky
2016 Goff and Wentz
2015 Winston and Mariota
2014 Blake Bortles LMAO
2013 ZERO!
2012 Luck and RGIII lmao
2011 Cam
2010 Sam Bradford
2009 Matt Stafford and Marky Sanchez
2008 Matt Ryan
2007 JaMarcuss Russell
2006 Vince Young
2005 Alex Smith
2004 Eli Manning SB winner and Rivers
2003 Carson Palmer
2002 David Carr and Joey Harrington
2001 Micheal Vick
2000 ZERO
1999 Tim Couch and Akili Smith
1998 Peyton Manning SB winner and Ryan Leaf
1997 ZERO
1996 ZERO
1995 Steve McNair and Kerry Collins
1994 Heath Shuler
1993 Drew Bledsoe and Rick Mirer
1992 ZERO
1991 ZERO
1990 Jeff George
1989 Troy Aikman SB winner

What are you talking about limiting sample size? Look, I have read your post and have you blocked for a reason. The post was simple to understand. Above is what I had posted. These are the QBs picked with a top 5 pick in the past 30 years. Only 3 have won superbowls! Majority where bust to mediocre. I’d bet that Aikman would have been a bust if he wasn’t on the Cowboys with that amazing team.
 
Dolphins81 said:
QBs drafted in the top 5

2018 Baker Mayfield and Sam Dumba$$
2017 Mitchell Trubisky
2016 Goff and Wentz
2015 Winston and Mariota
2014 Blake Bortles LMAO
2013 ZERO!
2012 Luck and RGIII lmao
2011 Cam
2010 Sam Bradford
2009 Matt Stafford and Marky Sanchez
2008 Matt Ryan
2007 JaMarcuss Russell
2006 Vince Young
2005 Alex Smith
2004 Eli Manning SB winner and Rivers
2003 Carson Palmer
2002 David Carr and Joey Harrington
2001 Micheal Vick
2000 ZERO
1999 Tim Couch and Akili Smith
1998 Peyton Manning SB winner and Ryan Leaf
1997 ZERO
1996 ZERO
1995 Steve McNair and Kerry Collins
1994 Heath Shuler
1993 Drew Bledsoe and Rick Mirer
1992 ZERO
1991 ZERO
1990 Jeff George
1989 Troy Aikman SB winner

What are you talking about limiting sample size? Look, I have read your post and have you blocked for a reason. The post was simple to understand. Above is what I had posted. These are the QBs picked with a top 5 pick in the past 30 years. Only 3 have won superbowls! Majority where bust to mediocre. I’d bet that Aikman would have been a bust if he wasn’t on the Cowboys with that amazing team.
Click to expand...

That list has zero bearing on how Tua, Burrow, Herbert, Insert Name Here, will do if they are selected in the top 5, but brother is that a brutal, scary, sobering list.
 
Dolphins81 said:
QBs drafted in the top 5

2018 Baker Mayfield and Sam Dumba$$
2017 Mitchell Trubisky
2016 Goff and Wentz
2015 Winston and Mariota
2014 Blake Bortles LMAO
2013 ZERO!
2012 Luck and RGIII lmao
2011 Cam
2010 Sam Bradford
2009 Matt Stafford and Marky Sanchez
2008 Matt Ryan
2007 JaMarcuss Russell
2006 Vince Young
2005 Alex Smith
2004 Eli Manning SB winner and Rivers
2003 Carson Palmer
2002 David Carr and Joey Harrington
2001 Micheal Vick
2000 ZERO
1999 Tim Couch and Akili Smith
1998 Peyton Manning SB winner and Ryan Leaf
1997 ZERO
1996 ZERO
1995 Steve McNair and Kerry Collins
1994 Heath Shuler
1993 Drew Bledsoe and Rick Mirer
1992 ZERO
1991 ZERO
1990 Jeff George
1989 Troy Aikman SB winner

What are you talking about limiting sample size? Look, I have read your post and have you blocked for a reason. The post was simple to understand. Above is what I had posted. These are the QBs picked with a top 5 pick in the past 30 years. Only 3 have won superbowls! Majority where bust to mediocre. I’d bet that Aikman would have been a bust if he wasn’t on the Cowboys with that amazing team.
Click to expand...
"How dare you contradict me! This is why you're blocked."

LOL
 
Dolphins81 said:
Yeah, the point of that list that I posted was to show all of the bust and QBs that haven’t made the SB. Also, to research the QBs that have been taken outside of the top 5 is much more time consuming, that’s why I posted to do your own, I don’t have the time. However, it’s a total crap shoot with QBs. Look at all of the teams that passed on Brady or Wilson. How many times did we pass on Brees. One of my main reasons for wanting the 1st pick was to trade it. With all of the Tua and Burrow excitement we could have gotten a massive amount of picks to trade. And the best part, we would have taken another teams future.
Click to expand...
Its all good, I just thought that the fact I can code a little bit and play with data will help out a bit here... It'll still be time consuming but I love doing that stuff... We just have to figure out the parameters first... As of right now, first contract seems to be the logical way to go about it, although I'd have to figure out a way to weigh contracts getting bigger every year... Its definitely doable...
 
I think each position is unique in terms of what qualifies as a success. For quarterbacks, I'm interested to see how much they improve from their rookie year to their next. I think you're looking at the progress over three years, touchdown to interception ratio seems like a good starting point.

As an example, I don't know yet if Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold or Josh Allen will ultimately be good quarterbacks. Both Mayfield and Darnold looked better as rookies, while Allen has improved but is currently in the bottom half of the league.

If your looking at rookies only, I think that's tough to determine.
 
Dolphins81 said:
QBs drafted in the top 5

2018 Baker Mayfield and Sam Dumba$$
2017 Mitchell Trubisky
2016 Goff and Wentz
2015 Winston and Mariota
2014 Blake Bortles LMAO
2013 ZERO!
2012 Luck and RGIII lmao
2011 Cam
2010 Sam Bradford
2009 Matt Stafford and Marky Sanchez
2008 Matt Ryan
2007 JaMarcuss Russell
2006 Vince Young
2005 Alex Smith
2004 Eli Manning SB winner and Rivers
2003 Carson Palmer
2002 David Carr and Joey Harrington
2001 Micheal Vick
2000 ZERO
1999 Tim Couch and Akili Smith
1998 Peyton Manning SB winner and Ryan Leaf
1997 ZERO
1996 ZERO
1995 Steve McNair and Kerry Collins
1994 Heath Shuler
1993 Drew Bledsoe and Rick Mirer
1992 ZERO
1991 ZERO
1990 Jeff George
1989 Troy Aikman SB winner

What are you talking about limiting sample size? Look, I have read your post and have you blocked for a reason. The post was simple to understand. Above is what I had posted. These are the QBs picked with a top 5 pick in the past 30 years. Only 3 have won superbowls! Majority where bust to mediocre. I’d bet that Aikman would have been a bust if he wasn’t on the Cowboys with that amazing team.
Click to expand...
That is an interesting list. Some great quarterbacks, some busts, some so so. So much as other posters have mentioned is team driven. The Steve Young and Jim Plunkett examples are probably the best. Young would have been considered a bust had he played his entire career in Tampa Bay. But he ends up in the Hall of Fame when he goes to a loaded San Francisco team. Plunkett was sacked so often in New England that most thought his career was over until he got a second chance in Oakland and led the Raiders to a super bowl win.
 
One more thing to add. I was listening to Gil Brandt on the radio (Sirius I think) and he made a statement that in most years there are legitimately 18-20 players who they considered true first round picks. The success rates per round go down pretty dramatically, but I think that's determined on how many players make it to their second contract.
 
Honestly this is definitely a case for https://deepmind.com/

The perfect imperfection of hominids (and IMO Blue Jays and

corvids in general) is one prickly slippery rascal to wrestle with!

If you actually hit on something you're a BILLIONAIRE!

Swimming pools! Movie stars!
 
I think your idea around value of their first contract is a winner. Maybe look at the contract vs that year's distribution and use the number of standard deviations from the mean as your metric. That way you aren't comparing today's salaries vs the salaries of a few years ago. I'm not sure how deep you'll go with this number but just something to consider is maybe weighing players that resign with their own team a little differently than those who hit free agency, both should have good contracts if they are a successful pick, but the FA contract will obviously be much higher.
 
I hope Miami’s FO is watching SEA vs SF and how a dominant Dline can control a game.
 
jtsacksyou said:
I think your idea around value of their first contract is a winner. Maybe look at the contract vs that year's distribution and use the number of standard deviations from the mean as your metric. That way you aren't comparing today's salaries vs the salaries of a few years ago. I'm not sure how deep you'll go with this number but just something to consider is maybe weighing players that resign with their own team a little differently than those who hit free agency, both should have good contracts if they are a successful pick, but the FA contract will obviously be much higher.
Click to expand...
Less heavy on stats but you could do it on the value of the life of the contract as a % of the salary cap total over the duration of the contract
 
NBP81 said:
As many of you know, Im on the tanking bandwagon. This seems to be the hot topic these days on the board. Today @Dolphins81 replied to one of my posts with "Do your own research" after I replied to one of his posts listing top 5 QBs and their actual success in the NFL. This is by no means a call out as I think he has a point. Im out there pounding on the fact that picking earlier in the draft theorically holds an advantage and all I have to stand on is logic and theory.

I can do the research, I have some programming and playing with data ability but I'd like to have your input on a couple of things before I start with the project.

The main hurdle is quantifying success. This needs to be position specific as most stats make sense for some position groups but not for others. ie. OL play is very hard to quantify.

I think games started can be very misleading as its easier to start on bad teams and bad teams, on average, draft earlier...

I thought of using specific position stats, like TDs(or Rating, or TD%, or whatever) for QBS, Y/C for RBs(or total yards, TDs or whatever) but I feel like this approach is still dependant on the surroundings of the player.

What I've come up with is using the first contract value of each players. Of course we'd have to weigh in different positions as even bad QBs make more than great RBs... But I think judging success by the first contract should reflect actual return very well.

I want to know if you agree with that or better yet, have a better way to quantify success for a rookie player.

Thanks!
Click to expand...

Capturedddf.PNG

www.footballoutsiders.com

NFL Draft: Round-by-Round QB Study (1994-2016)

Thanks a lot, Dak Prescott. Now more people will think the fourth round is still a gold mine for quarterbacks, but the data says otherwise. The update to our quarterback draft study for 1994-2016 shows little has changed: finding a good QB is really hard.
www.footballoutsiders.com www.footballoutsiders.com
 
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