What I'm about to type has to do with just the numbers and just the basic filter to match prospect to previous greats. There are other things to consider, like experience, arm strength, athletic ability, winning record, etc. Here I am just answering about wacky numbers, nothing else.
Here is how it goes. We are analyzing wacky numbers, therefore numbers. Any time we analyze numbers. production, we must have a filter, we must design a filter, to say these numbers are within the range we are looking for and some other ones are not. This filter allows us to say that based on production a set of quarterbacks falls within a range we are looking for and the other ones do not. For a visual example, imagine a bell curve, the peak is the filter, high fidelity, what we want, and the low part of the curve on both sides of the bell is not what we want, it's noise, and it must get filtered out. We disregard it and let through to the speaker just the bell part, high fidelity.
When it comes to analyzing quarterback production, we want quarterbacks with high completion percentage, low sacks, low interceptions, and a lot of touchdowns. All of that, not just one thing. We want quarterbacks who have produced in their last season, across those categories. And based on that we design a filter. It is an arbitrary number that is later adjusted against known samples to values that work. And I will give examples below of what those values and numbers are.
It just so happens that quarterbacks in the past, the last 10-15 years, who were drafted, and have performed on rookie contract, given their teams a chance at competing for a SB on rookie contract, fall within the bell, and not outside of the bell. Whereas Tua and Burrow are in the noise region.
Now let's start with 2008 draft and Joe Flacco. After Joe Flacco was drafted, he made the playoffs in 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 before winning the superbowl in 2012. He was not exactly on a rookie deal in 2012 when he won the superbowl, but in the previous four season he gave his team a chance to compete for the superbowl, and that what we want. In his final season in college, Joe Flacco produced:
521 attempts, 63.5% completion percentage, 23 TD, 5 interceptions, and 15 sacks. Now let's convert those numbers to attempts per touchdown, interception, sack. Joe Flacco thus produced:
63.5% completions, 34.7 attempts per sack (APS), 104.2 attempts per interception (API), and 22.7 attempts per touchdown (APT).
Since we want the completions to be high, attempts per sack to be high, and attempts per interception to be high, we will multiply them to get 0.635 x 34.7 x 104.2 = 2296. And we also want the attempts per touchdown to be low. So, we will put the values we want to be high in the numerator and the value we want low in the denominator, and divide the two: 2296 / 22.7 = 101.1
Joe Flacco's Reliability (filter) score in his last year in college was 101.1.
In 2009 Mark Sanchez was drafted, and he helped the Jets compete for the Superbowl on his rookie deal. HE beat Brady, beat Manning on the way to AFC title. That's what we want. In his last college season, Mark Sanchez produced:
366 attempts, 65.9%, 17 S, 10 INT, 34 TD, or
65.9%, 21.5 APS, 36.6 API, 10.8 APT
Reliability = 65.9% x 21.5 x 36.6 / 10.8 = 48.2
2010 had no phenoms. In 2011 Cam Newton was drafted. He played in 3 playoff games until his fifth season when he won the MVP and took the Panthers to the SB. In his last college season, Cam Newton produced:
280 attempts, 66.1%, 23 S, 7 INT, 30 TD, or
66.1%, 12.2 APS, 40 API, 9.3 APT
Reliability = 34.5
In 2012, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson were drafted and both went on to give their teams a chance to compete for Superbowl, in the playoffs. In their last college season they produced:
Andrew Luck:
404 attempts, 71.3%, 11 S, 10 INT, 37 TD, or
71.3%, 36.7 APS, 40.4 API, 10.9 APT
Reliability = 96.9
Russell Wilson:
309 attempts, 72.8%, 22 S, 4 INT, 33 TD, or
72.8%, 14.1 APS, 77.3 API, 9.4 APT
Reliability = 84.4
In 2013, 214, 2015 there were no phenoms. In 2016, Jared Goff was drafted. Jared Goff on rookie contract took his team to playoffs and to the SB. we want that. In his last season in college Jared Goff produced:
529 attempts, 64.5%, 26 S, 13 INT, 43 TD, or
64.5%, 20.4 APS, 40.7 API, 12.3 APT
Reliability = 43.4
In 2017, Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson were drafted. They give their teams a chance to compete on rookie deals. We want that. Pat Mahomes and Deshaun Watson in their final college season produced:
Pat Mahomes:
591 attempts, 65.7%, 27 S, 10 INT, 41 TD, or
65.7%, 21.9 APS, 59.1 API, 14.4 APT
Reliability = 58.9
Deshaun Watson:
579 attempts, 67.0%, 17 S, 17 INT, 41 TD, or
67.0%, 34.1 APS, 34.1 API, 14.1 APT
Reliability = 55.0
And lets stop there since we are running out of time, sum it up, and mention four more players. In other words, quarterbacks who we want, who had performed to rookie deal and given their teams chance to compete for the superbowl, have the following scores:
Joe Flacco =101.1
Mark Sanchez = 48.2
Cam Newton = 34.5
Andrew Luck = 96.9
Russell Wilson = 84.4
Jared Goff = 43.4
Pat Mahomes = 58.9
Deshaun Watson = 55.0
Colin Kaepernick = 61.6
Carson Wentz, Reliability = 28.5
Dak Prescott, Reliability = 57.3
Baker Mayfield, Reliability = 78.6
In other words, quarterbacks who had performed on rookie deals fall within the range of 28.5 to 101.5.
Everything outside of that is noise, wacky numbers, unreliable performance. And here is why. Here are draft quarterbacks whose Reliability score is 102 and higher, since 2008.
2008 Josh Johnson = 1722
2010 Sam Bradford = 203.4
2011 Andy Dalton = 117.6
2013 Geno Smith = 136
2014 Derek Carr = 258
2014 Jimmy Garoppolo = 116
2014 Keith Wenning = 123
2015 Marcus Mariota = 103
2016 Brandon Doughty = 138
2016 Paxton Lynch = 122
2016 Nate Sudfeld = 106
2018 Chad Kanoff = 131
2019 Dwayne Haskins = 117
2019 Gardener Minshew = 152
2019 Marcus McMaryon = 122
It's not a good list. It's not a performing list.
And here is production for Tua and Burrow:
Tua
252 attempts, 71.4%, 10 S, 3 INT, 33 TD, or
71.4 %, 25.2 APS, 84 API, 7.6 APT
Reliability = 198
Burrow
527, 76.3%, 34 S, 6 INT, 6 TD, or
76.3%, 15.5 APS, 87.8 API, 8.8 APT
Reliability = 118
They are not in a good company. They are in a company of wacky numbers.
There are always exceptions, and Tua and Burrow have posted some elite numbers, Burrow can run too so that helps. But their production is unreliable for the purposes of the draft. They have wacky numbers.
