The pick is not always the best player on the board...:err:
When I think about the Overall First Pick in the draft, the following comes to mind...w/ a draft like this years.
* Talent
- Which Players have shown the most talent to be in the TOP 5?
- Which Players have the most talent for my biggest need positions?
- What are the deepest positions in the draft?
- What are the talent levels (Position Needs and/or BPA) of rounds 2 - 5 vs. my selection in Round 1?
-
* Character Issues
- Has the player ever been arrested?
- Has the player ever hit a women?
- Does the player hang around known criminals?
- Does the player show a level of respect for the game & life?
- Does the player take off plays?
- Does the player find a new gear, dead tired with the game on the line?
* Game Knowledge
- Does the player put in the extra hours for prep work on the games?
- Can the player direct the offense and/or defense with signal calls?
- Can the player learn the complex system and language of the NFL?
- Can the player read offense/defense systems for coverages?
- Does the player make a lot of mental mistakes vs. lesser teams?
- Does the player make a lot of mental mistakes vs. equal or better teams?
* Contract
- Which player will sign for less due to the chance of falling out of the TOP 5, if the player is not taking #1 Overall?
- Which players have Mr. Holdout for an agent?
- Which players have agents that also represent other players on the Miami Dolphins?
... by using most of the above list...
I think Miami will draft Chris Long...
He offers the safest (Not that any pick is a lock winner) pick for a team needing a ton of players. If Miami can put a 3-4 team on the field Chris will play OLB. If Miami runs a 4-3 they can line him up at DE. The second round should offer up Miami a shot at RT, CB, WR or QB.
The talent level will be higher in those rounds for the above targets vs. choosing either Jake Long or Matt Ryan compared to the drop off in talent with the 2nd tier players.
I do not think that JT has much longer in Miami. I wish he would stay for another 3 years and then retire as a Dolphin. But that is not the way of the current NFL. Miami might trade Jason Taylor on draft day for picks. I think they will get a 2nd rounder with a pick next year. Either way JT has only 2 or 3 years left here most would have to agree. He has been one of my favorite dolphins for years. If he wants to play for a winner and try to get that ring. I say let him choose the team...that should mean a late 2nd rounder. Not by no means worth his value to dolphin fans. But to a team 3 years away for making a serious run at a championship...it fits right in with the concept of rebuilding now with hopeful young future stars.
The draft is like a long distance run...
Some players come out of the gates hot as hell and looking like a sure-fire #1 overall pick. Then the next day hits and that player might be falling out of grace of the TOP 5. Before the season started BB was looking like a franchise QB to most scouts with a TOP 5 talent level. Now there is talk that he might fall into the 2nd round. Then the contracts start hitting the tables. Some players will sweat thinking about the other guy taking the contract for less, while his agent holds out for a larger payday.
Matt Ryan might be that guy that takes the contract for less. He does seem to have some real talent worth TOP 10. This class does not have a heavy weight player that just makes you say "WOW" (*Unless you are Jerry Jones). His position will require big money to fill in free agency...IF JB is not the answer. But does the big TuNa want to take a chance on JB? The Tuna will want a QB with about 2+ years leading the offense for this big 3 year push with one to go on... If he gets Miami to the big dance...he gets his new big contact and his company gets a ton of new business. But does Matt have more the other 2nd round prospects have?...yeah. But is his ceiling that much higher than any of the 2nd round prospects?...nope.
Jake Long could also be the guy...just not as cheap as Matt Ryan. He should go 2,3 or 5 in the draft. Some say he is a LT, some say he is a RT. I think he has a load of talent. But his position allows Miami to fish a little deeper into the next round for a RT. That might even be able to wait until the 3rd to fill the void at LG or RT. The positions are deep this draft for OL.
When it's all said and done...
Miami selects Chris Long.
* Talent & Skills
* DE / OLB
* Non Stop Motor
* Knowledge Of The Game
* Ready For The Challenge Of Being Prepared To Be Given 30+ million guaranteed dollar bills.
....I hope I am right...
When I think about the Overall First Pick in the draft, the following comes to mind...w/ a draft like this years.
* Talent
- Which Players have shown the most talent to be in the TOP 5?
- Which Players have the most talent for my biggest need positions?
- What are the deepest positions in the draft?
- What are the talent levels (Position Needs and/or BPA) of rounds 2 - 5 vs. my selection in Round 1?
-
* Character Issues
- Has the player ever been arrested?
- Has the player ever hit a women?
- Does the player hang around known criminals?
- Does the player show a level of respect for the game & life?
- Does the player take off plays?
- Does the player find a new gear, dead tired with the game on the line?
* Game Knowledge
- Does the player put in the extra hours for prep work on the games?
- Can the player direct the offense and/or defense with signal calls?
- Can the player learn the complex system and language of the NFL?
- Can the player read offense/defense systems for coverages?
- Does the player make a lot of mental mistakes vs. lesser teams?
- Does the player make a lot of mental mistakes vs. equal or better teams?
* Contract
- Which player will sign for less due to the chance of falling out of the TOP 5, if the player is not taking #1 Overall?
- Which players have Mr. Holdout for an agent?
- Which players have agents that also represent other players on the Miami Dolphins?
... by using most of the above list...
I think Miami will draft Chris Long...
He offers the safest (Not that any pick is a lock winner) pick for a team needing a ton of players. If Miami can put a 3-4 team on the field Chris will play OLB. If Miami runs a 4-3 they can line him up at DE. The second round should offer up Miami a shot at RT, CB, WR or QB.
The talent level will be higher in those rounds for the above targets vs. choosing either Jake Long or Matt Ryan compared to the drop off in talent with the 2nd tier players.
I do not think that JT has much longer in Miami. I wish he would stay for another 3 years and then retire as a Dolphin. But that is not the way of the current NFL. Miami might trade Jason Taylor on draft day for picks. I think they will get a 2nd rounder with a pick next year. Either way JT has only 2 or 3 years left here most would have to agree. He has been one of my favorite dolphins for years. If he wants to play for a winner and try to get that ring. I say let him choose the team...that should mean a late 2nd rounder. Not by no means worth his value to dolphin fans. But to a team 3 years away for making a serious run at a championship...it fits right in with the concept of rebuilding now with hopeful young future stars.
The draft is like a long distance run...
Some players come out of the gates hot as hell and looking like a sure-fire #1 overall pick. Then the next day hits and that player might be falling out of grace of the TOP 5. Before the season started BB was looking like a franchise QB to most scouts with a TOP 5 talent level. Now there is talk that he might fall into the 2nd round. Then the contracts start hitting the tables. Some players will sweat thinking about the other guy taking the contract for less, while his agent holds out for a larger payday.
Matt Ryan might be that guy that takes the contract for less. He does seem to have some real talent worth TOP 10. This class does not have a heavy weight player that just makes you say "WOW" (*Unless you are Jerry Jones). His position will require big money to fill in free agency...IF JB is not the answer. But does the big TuNa want to take a chance on JB? The Tuna will want a QB with about 2+ years leading the offense for this big 3 year push with one to go on... If he gets Miami to the big dance...he gets his new big contact and his company gets a ton of new business. But does Matt have more the other 2nd round prospects have?...yeah. But is his ceiling that much higher than any of the 2nd round prospects?...nope.
Jake Long could also be the guy...just not as cheap as Matt Ryan. He should go 2,3 or 5 in the draft. Some say he is a LT, some say he is a RT. I think he has a load of talent. But his position allows Miami to fish a little deeper into the next round for a RT. That might even be able to wait until the 3rd to fill the void at LG or RT. The positions are deep this draft for OL.
When it's all said and done...
Miami selects Chris Long.
* Talent & Skills
* DE / OLB
* Non Stop Motor
* Knowledge Of The Game
* Ready For The Challenge Of Being Prepared To Be Given 30+ million guaranteed dollar bills.
....I hope I am right...