These 12 Are Gone, Whose Your Pick?

[hoops]

Agree with you on Wilkins, and most people would agree with you on Lindstrom. I don't think he's perfect, but his areas for improvement are ones I care less about and ones where I see him as likely to improve. At BC, he did not run block like a Will Hernandez, James Daniels, or Quenton Nelson. His pass pro, though, stacks up well with that group (though Nelson is on his own tier), and his physical tools project well for a run blocker, where it's often more about getting to a spot than driving someone off the ball (depending on the scheme). I think he holds up well in pass pro so well because he's a big guy relative to his athletic tools. There aren't many 6'4 308 guys who run 4.91, jump 30.5 and 117", and post a 7.61 3 cone and 4.54 shuttle. Lindstrom is bigger than Thuney and Mason, and he's a better athlete than either.

When I look at OL, a very high percentage of the evaluation goes into his ability to pass block - both on performance and projection. Chris Lindstrom is already great in pass pro, and his physical tools and age point toward a player who will only improve. Not only is pass pro more important (because passing is what wins and loses games in the NFL), it's easier to project.



I would prefer grab Lindstrom in a trade down, but I think he's one of the safest players in the draft, with a high ceiling. Miami's primary objective should be to build a line that can protect the 2020 QB. They have two years to do it, so they have 2 drafts, the rest of this FA period, and 2020 FA to build a quality unit - 4 of the 5 spots. Assuming you don't want to spend big in FA and hurt your comp picks, that probably translates to at least 3 Day 2 or earlier picks. If Dillard is off the board, OT being harder to fill with quality than OG, Lindstrom is the best pass blocker available on OL - and the best athlete. I'm not really worried about the D at this point. I'd like to add value pieces - maybe Banogu, Hollins, Nelson, Dean, Love fall further than they should. Would love to add those players to the D. But, if the team competes for anything in 2020, it will be an unexpected bonus. Use 2019 and 2020 to create a good situation for the new QB. The team can shift its asset focus to the D for the 2021 offseason. Ideally, Miami has a plan to fill the OL spots without using the 2020 2nd on OL. Like the chances of a high-end WR slipping out of the 1st - stacked group.

I think my main concern is that we are overrating these o line players relative to other o line classes.

That’s easy to do because this defensive class edge rush hype wise isn’t as good on tape as the combine #s would suggest with the outside shoulder win imo but I just think you are gonna find long term a lot of the o line players in this class are average pros.

Not the kind that change or speed up your fortunes.

 

[BigNastyFish]

I think my main concern is that we are overrating these o line players relative to other o line classes.

That’s easy to do because this defensive class edge rush hype wise isn’t as good on tape as the combine #s would suggest with the outside shoulder win imo but I just think you are gonna find long term a lot of the o line players in this class are average pros.

Not the kind that change or speed up your fortunes.

Interesting you say that. Certainly opinion (hype?) seems to be divided.

But I've read elsewhere that this is a slightly below average OL class.

 

[hoops]

Interesting you say that. Certainly opinion (hype?) seems to be divided.

But I've read elsewhere that this is a slightly below average OL class.

I don’t see anything that wows me so when that’s the case I like to go with the best technique assuming the measurables etc are there.

Consistent technique with o line translates imo

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Of the players with any chance to be there at 13, Ed Oliver is the only defender that may make me deviate from investing in the OL. Quinen Williams won't be there. Kyler Murray won't be there. I love Josh Allen, but he won't be there, and he'd play the same role as Burns - who is right there with Allen as a talent (not as good now but younger and more athletic). Love Devin White, but unless Flores thinks he can play the Hightower role (about a 25 lb difference), it's hard to see his fit. Love Bush, but he's absolutely not a fit. I like Montez Sweat a lot and think he's a fit at DE, but he's probably off the board, and I don't love him enough to deviate. There aren't any DB's I have very close to the Top 10, and OL is much more pressing/time-sensitive. At WR, I'm looking to see if Harry or AJ Brown fall to the 2nd, and I might target Stanley Morgan Jr later.

The new QB will need a new OL, and some reliable targets who can also make big plays would. Maybe Parker shows something in 2019, but I don't see him ever developing into a high-volume WR. Harry and Brown profile as guys who can carry a heavy load and also produce big plays. 2020 has some guys who are just as reliable but more dynamic. Speaking of, if Miami didn't already have so many small receivers, I'd also like Isabella in the 2nd. For Miami, the 3rd is where I think he's still worth it.

With so many OL spots to fill, trading down could go a long way, and if Miami misses out on OT, I'd target Yosuah Nijman as a developmental OT. But, getting two of Dillard, Lindstrom, Williams, Risner, and McCoy + Nijman late would make it a successful draft for me. If they could get two and add Harry or Brown, I'd say it's ideal.

 

[hoops]

If I’m drafting Devin white it’s because he’s the run away bpa and to replace Kiko who i dump in a year or hell maybe after the draft even.

But I don’t think you have to worry about it. That ship has sailed on white getting in our range.

Devin bush I’m not interested in top 15

I like Dillard as the most talented o line prospect but I just can’t get off left tackle all the way and with tunsil here I don’t see miami taking him. Nor do I like the fit at right tackle. And I think his consistency is a work in progress on a every snap basis. Sometimes it’s beautiful sometimes it’s ehh almost like brain farts or something.

The nc state kid down the road may be the best o line player in this class but I just can’t get visions of him struggling to anchor at the senior bowl vs strength over his face out of my head. Scheme wise I can limit that ask etc but still. Top 15 and overaged? Not for me. Top 25 yeah I buy it.

Risner I see as a jack of many trades (except left tackle) master of none. Put him in a less than ideal spot and I think he struggles like Justin Pugh did with the giants when miscast.

Does Jonah Williams have the strength to play anything other than left tackle or pivot? I don’t know. I know his technique is consistent. Left guard or pivot where my comfort level is best. Top 20 feels right.

 

[Danny]

Of the players with any chance to be there at 13, Ed Oliver is the only defender that may make me deviate from investing in the OL. Quinen Williams won't be there. Kyler Murray won't be there. I love Josh Allen, but he won't be there, and he'd play the same role as Burns - who is right there with Allen as a talent (not as good now but younger and more athletic). Love Devin White, but unless Flores thinks he can play the Hightower role (about a 25 lb difference), it's hard to see his fit. Love Bush, but he's absolutely not a fit. I like Montez Sweat a lot and think he's a fit at DE, but he's probably off the board, and I don't love him enough to deviate. There aren't any DB's I have very close to the Top 10, and OL is much more pressing/time-sensitive. At WR, I'm looking to see if Harry or AJ Brown fall to the 2nd, and I might target Stanley Morgan Jr later.

The new QB will need a new OL, and some reliable targets who can also make big plays would. Maybe Parker shows something in 2019, but I don't see him ever developing into a high-volume WR. Harry and Brown profile as guys who can carry a heavy load and also produce big plays. 2020 has some guys who are just as reliable but more dynamic. Speaking of, if Miami didn't already have so many small receivers, I'd also like Isabella in the 2nd. For Miami, the 3rd is where I think he's still worth it.

With so many OL spots to fill, trading down could go a long way, and if Miami misses out on OT, I'd target Yosuah Nijman as a developmental OT. But, getting two of Dillard, Lindstrom, Williams, Risner, and McCoy + Nijman late would make it a successful draft for me. If they could get two and add Harry or Brown, I'd say it's ideal.

I believe that if the team wants to come out of this draft with two top O-line guys they can do it. The question is, do they really want to do that or would they rather get one top O-line guy and help for the D-line before they go O-line again?

 

[hoops]

Gun to my head we stay at 13 it’s poa/dline player, 2nd round o line, 3rd round rush lb top picks.

That’s my expectation and where I think the value is probably right.

We trade down all bets are off obviously

I almost expect that tcu rush lb to be a dolphin. Just seems too obvious and he’s very scheme specific. Unless the pats beat us to it. They won’t beat you to it at 48

I could also see all d line top 3 picks. Maybe a db in the second but I’m doubting it.

 

[Danny]

I agree at 13 D-line is the only thing that makes sense unless a QB that they really like is there. A corner at 48 is possible and so is O-line. Moving down from 13 then we'll see how far back they move and of course that can change everything. 11 days and 3 hours to go and I can't wait.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

I believe that if the team wants to come out of this draft with two top O-line guys they can do it. The question is, do they really want to do that or would they rather get one top O-line guy and help for the D-line before they go O-line again?

If the value is too good to pass up, I'm OK with it, but what's the hurry to add talent to the D? The team will rise and fall with the QB and offense. As long as those are in place, Miami will have multiple opportunities to make runs at defensive talent. The better Miami sets up its QB, the sooner they can consider spending premium assets on D. Players fall every year, though. Justin Reid fell to 3rd in 2018. In a scenario like that, you take the guy who should have been a Top 20 pick.

But, the overarching point is that Miami has a limited period to put together an offense that gives the 2020 rookie his best chance to develop/succeed. If Miami is successful in this area, it will have an ascending rookie leading an ascending offense, with plenty of money and drafts to address the D/put together a complete team. If Miami is unsuccessful, it won't matter how many studs they add to the D.

 

[hoops]

Interesting you say that. Certainly opinion (hype?) seems to be divided.

But I've read elsewhere that this is a slightly below average OL class.

I can believe that last line. Just keep in mind I don’t really grade relative to any class when I do I grade relative to what my expectations are of a player to validate what I’d consider a grade in any class.

So for example Brian burns to me at 249 as a 34 olb is worth a top 15 pick. In any class. 2019 doesn’t matter. It’s more a prospect grade relative to all my years of doing it etc.

More tiers based. Top 5, top 20, top 50 etc.

 

[Danny]

If the value is too good to pass up, I'm OK with it, but what's the hurry to add talent to the D? The team will rise and fall with the QB and offense. As long as those are in place, Miami will have multiple opportunities to make runs at defensive talent. The better Miami sets up its QB, the sooner they can consider spending premium assets on D. Players fall every year, though. Justin Reid fell to 3rd in 2018. In a scenario like that, you take the guy who should have been a Top 20 pick.

But, the overarching point is that Miami has a limited period to put together an offense that gives the 2020 rookie his best chance to develop/succeed. If Miami is successful in this area, it will have an ascending rookie leading an ascending offense, with plenty of money and drafts to address the D/put together a complete team. If Miami is unsuccessful, it won't matter how many studs they add to the D.

I get what you're saying and hey, I'm not expert but here's how I feel. I don't believe in drafting O-line at 13 unless is a LT which we already have. Now I totally agree that we need to put a good O-line in place for our QB of the future but I believe you should be able to get a RT later on. If using the 13 pick the only way this HC/FO has to come up with good O-line then nothing else will matter, this team is doomed. Great teams don't become great teams by draft a RT at 13. Yes we need O-line but reaching for O-line is even worse than reaching for a QB. If an O-line guy is better than every other players that's on the board at 13 then we better be talking all pro for his whole career or else, I'm taking the better player at another position. I believe at 13 we're gonna have at least several players that are better than any guard or Center you'll have on the board. And if we draft an OT he'll have to play RT which means we're using the 13 pick of the draft to replace James which we took with the 19 pick. At least to me it'd show this FO has learn nothing.

 

[djphinfan]

Would be ideal to trade down with a team that likes Lock or Jones (assuming that's a real thing), but Lindstrom is my favorite player left for Miami. Dillard and Lindstrom are my favorite OL in the draft. I'd also understand Jonah Williams. His testing was disappointing, but he showed good speed, and he's young - has physical talent to fill out. But, in Dillard and Lindstrom, you're getting elite pass protectors and elite athletes. I've said it elsewhere, but people put too much emphasis on run blocking and not enough on pass protection.

Yeah I don’t see the player left that is worth the lower first round pick that you would get in a trade down scenario plus the hi asset you would pick in the process, relative to one of those players at 13.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Yeah I don’t see the player left that is worth the lower first round pick that you would get in a trade down scenario plus the hi asset you would pick in the process, relative to one of those players at 13.

I could see a team like Houston trading up for an OT. They desperately need an immediate starter, and they have two 2nd RD picks. Possible they like Williams enough to make that move. Outside of that, it'd have to be a team moving up for QB.

 

[hoops]

Houston moves up I bet it’s for Dillard. That’s like ideal scenario for them.

What keeps Rashan Gary from being able to play trey flowers role in a bigger faster package? I would consider flowers to be mostly a power rusher.

Flowers in Detroit is why I think they will take Oliver at 8 if he’s there.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

I think that's an ideal role for Gary.