Things that make you go HMMMMMM!!!

[wifinfan]

Saw this in the April 21st issue of ESPN the magazine, very interesting. :D
" In 2006, two professors, Yale's Cade Massey and the University of Chicago's Richard Thaler, published a study of the 1991 to 2002 drafts. They found that a first-rounder is nearly as likely to be out of the NFL after five years as he is to make the Pro Bowl during those five seasons. And it gets worse. While top picks do perform better than lower ones, Massey and Thaler also discovered that performance falls off much faster than compensation, making No. 1 and No. 32 nearly indistinguishable from a value standpoint. In other words, at this year's draft, the Giants, selecting at No. 31 will likely grab as valuable a player as the Dolphins will at No. 1. If the Dolphins truley understand what they were up against, they'd let the clock expire on their choice 20 times and ultimately risk only $10 million instead of $60 million."

So, what do you all think? I say brilliant, but does Tuna have the gonads!:up:

 

[The Juggernaut]

It's why I would love to trade down, but no way pass up the pick.

 

[Digital]

I think it is a foolish move on many levels. If anything the statistics you cite suggest taking the safer pick rather than the riskier pick that may have a higher ceiling. Guys like Chris Long and Jake Long are about as risk-free as you can get. Guys like Matt Ryan and Vernon Gholston are clearly the riskier picks with great potential. QB's are always risky, and Gholston is raw and takes plays off, not to mention there are some who have questioned whether he is truly all-natural or possibly taking some performance enhancing extras.

Regardless, letting the clock run down is foolish IMHO, and it would make Parcells & Co. look quite amateurish, and for that psychological reason alone I just don't see it happening.

 

[BlueFin]

Saw this in the April 21st issue of ESPN the magazine, very interesting. :D
" In 2006, two professors, Yale's Cade Massey and the University of Chicago's Richard Thaler, published a study of the 1991 to 2002 drafts. They found that a first-rounder is nearly as likely to be out of the NFL after five years as he is to make the Pro Bowl during those five seasons. And it gets worse. While top picks do perform better than lower ones, Massey and Thaler also discovered that performance falls off much faster than compensation, making No. 1 and No. 32 nearly indistinguishable from a value standpoint. In other words, at this year's draft, the Giants, selecting at No. 31 will likely grab as valuable a player as the Dolphins will at No. 1. If the Dolphins truley understand what they were up against, they'd let the clock expire on their choice 20 times and ultimately risk only $10 million instead of $60 million."

So, what do you all think? I say brilliant, but does Tuna have the gonads!:up:

Not brilliant, 1 and 31 are not the same, just as the various men making these decisions are not the same.

If I have the right guys making the picks, I'd rather them make the right choice from the top 6 in this draft versus whats left after pick 30.

 

[Captain Lou]

Saw this in the April 21st issue of ESPN the magazine, very interesting. :D
" In 2006, two professors, Yale's Cade Massey and the University of Chicago's Richard Thaler, published a study of the 1991 to 2002 drafts. They found that a first-rounder is nearly as likely to be out of the NFL after five years as he is to make the Pro Bowl during those five seasons. And it gets worse. While top picks do perform better than lower ones, Massey and Thaler also discovered that performance falls off much faster than compensation, making No. 1 and No. 32 nearly indistinguishable from a value standpoint. In other words, at this year's draft, the Giants, selecting at No. 31 will likely grab as valuable a player as the Dolphins will at No. 1. If the Dolphins truley understand what they were up against, they'd let the clock expire on their choice 20 times and ultimately risk only $10 million instead of $60 million."

So, what do you all think? I say brilliant, but does Tuna have the gonads!:up:

When professors suit up and start playing I'll pay attention to what they have to say!

 

[RonMexico7]

Saw this in the April 21st issue of ESPN the magazine, very interesting. :D
" In 2006, two professors, Yale's Cade Massey and the University of Chicago's Richard Thaler, published a study of the 1991 to 2002 drafts. They found that a first-rounder is nearly as likely to be out of the NFL after five years as he is to make the Pro Bowl during those five seasons. And it gets worse. While top picks do perform better than lower ones, Massey and Thaler also discovered that performance falls off much faster than compensation, making No. 1 and No. 32 nearly indistinguishable from a value standpoint. In other words, at this year's draft, the Giants, selecting at No. 31 will likely grab as valuable a player as the Dolphins will at No. 1. If the Dolphins truley understand what they were up against, they'd let the clock expire on their choice 20 times and ultimately risk only $10 million instead of $60 million."

So, what do you all think? I say brilliant, but does Tuna have the gonads!:up:

surely that is the key point. do you want the best players or the cheapest players? cos you could just not draft anyone and pick up a load of useless hobos and pay them the league minimum - but if you want a successful football team then you draft the best players you can.

The draft is designed to create parity - the worst teams gets the opportunity to pick the best player!! why the hell would you decide - oh no actually i'll let better teams take the best players, thatll work for us and make us great....

if this skip the pick idea was so brilliant why has nobody ever done it before, do you think this is the first time the idea has come up? i doubt it.

 

[wifinfan]

My whole premiss behind this thread is that I think it is ludicris to guarentee a player who has never set foot on an NFL field $60 million dollars! Something has to be done about this rediculis method of the draft, why not start here.

 

[RonMexico7]

its not your money!! i dont care how much they spend as long as it makes us better! the cap will be abolished soon anyway - so its stupid to make a stand now - no-one else will follow and we'd have shot ourselves in the foot!!

 

[rafael]

My whole premiss behind this thread is that I think it is ludicris to guarentee a player who has never set foot on an NFL field $60 million dollars! Something has to be done about this rediculis method of the draft, why not start here.

Everybody agrees that paying that much is ludicrous but the reality is that passing on the pick doesn't necessarily solve that. When Minnesota did it Mckinnie held out until Oct. and then signed a contract within $200,000 of the bonus money that Sims (the guy picked ahead of him) got.

 

[VT Dolphan]

Can this idea of passing on the pick just die already. It is a dumb idea, we need to add one of the elite prospects to our team, and if we're not going to do that it better be because we TRADED the pick for more, not PASSED on it.